Help Me Decide the Rules for "The SSB4 Newcomer Roster Bets" Game

[Randoman]

Since my other thread has died and hasn't really gotten many posts, I thought I'd officially make a separate thread discussing my SSB4 Newcomer Roster Bets Game.

Anyways, since a lot of the fun regarding pre-Smash Bros. releases involves speculating and guessing characters, I thought I'd play that up and make an official SSB4 roster betting thread. We're not going to be betting actual money, but I thought it would be fun to see who's most right about the roster in the end.

So anyways, here's the rules I'm thinking of implementing so far:

-we guess newcomers only and we don't guess character cuts, since I don't want discussions focusing heavily on which Brawl veterans will be in or not (seeing how most of them are practically safe, while only a few may be cut like Ike, Lucario, and the third parties. If you want to include veterans as well, feel free to say so in this thread)

- Everyone starts at 100 Points

- A -5 Penalty for each new character revealed for late joiners of the game will be implemented

- Every correctly guessed newcomer is +10 points

- Every newcomer that is guessed but isn't in the final roster is -10 points

- Every newcomer that does show up that you didn't guess is -5

- The only placeholder guesses that are allowed is a 6th Generation Pokemon, since barely anything has been revealed for Pokemon and it's one of Nintendo's top three biggest series

So to see how points work, let's use this as an example:

Guesses: Shulk, Mega Man, Palutena, Lloyd

Actual SSB4: Newcomers: Shulk, Takamaru, Mega Man, Pac-Man

So everyone starts off at 100. This person would get +10 each for Shulk and Megaman for correctly guessing they'd be in. He'd also lose -10 each for incorrectly guessing that Palutena and Lloyd would be in. And since Takamaru and Pac-Man are in the final roster, and this person didn't guess that Takamaru and Pac-Man would be in, so that's -5 for each.

100 (Initial)

+10 (Shulk)

+10 (Mega Man)

-10 (Palutena)

-10 (Lloyd)

-5 (Takamaru)

-5 (Pac-Man)

----------------------

90 (Final Score)

Any feedback on the rules would be very much appreciated.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

This confused me greatly... Uh...

[Randoman]

Which part? It's basically just guessing all the newcomers you think will be in SSB4, seeing what the actual newcomers will be in SSB4 as they're officially announced, and implementing a point system to see who's the most accurate guesser in the end.

[Inactive Account404]

I think I understand the rules, and it sounds like it might be fun. Do we start guessing now? And is there a limit to how many characters we can say will be in SSB4?

Edited May 22, 2013 by Silver Pegasus

[Konnor97]

The rules seem fine enough.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

The rules confused me a little bit is all. But I guess I don't need to understand them to guess lol

[Konnor97]

The rules confused me a little bit is all. But I guess I don't need to understand them to guess lol

They can be simplified as

• Start with 100 points
• Guess who you think will be new characters. Do not guess characters who you think will leave (unless the rules change)
• Guess a character correctly = +10 points
• Guess a character wrong = -10 points
• Don't guess a character and the character is in = -5 points
• If you join after some new character reveals have been made = -5 points for each new character
• Person with most points "wins"

Edited May 22, 2013 by Konnor97

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Ah... I feel kinda silly now. But thank you. So... We wait to guess or do we go now?

[Konnor97]

I say we wait for Rando to say, but probably not yet considering he hasn't even put up his own guess list yet.

Edited May 22, 2013 by Konnor97

[Randoman]

I think I understand the rules, and it sounds like it might be fun. Do we start guessing now? And is there a limit to how many characters we can say will be in SSB4?

Ah... I feel kinda silly now. But thank you. So... We wait to guess or do we go now?

I'm wanting a couple of more people to comment/a couple of more days before we get started, just in case there's other people that want to participate but don't really like the rules currently. Also, I'll be making a different thread for when we actually start the bets, since this one is dedicated to rule changes/suggestions.

As for a limit on character guesses, I guess there is none, since we're guessing solely on the characters and character amount that we think is likely. So, you can guess as many characters as you want, but remember: guessing too many characters that won't show up will detract from your points a lot.

Also, I want some feedback regarding guess changes. I mean, there has to be some limitations to guess changes since the game would be too cheap otherwise. Obviously, adding a character to your list right after they're officially revealed won't be allowed, but I'm kind of wanting to let people change their guesses if a character that is officially revealed somewhat disconfirms another (Eg: FE14 lord being confirmed means Chrom isn't as likely, Gen 6 Pokemon being confirmed means Zoroark isn't as likely).

That also brings me to another question regarding the Gen 6 Pokemon rule: once more Pokemon get revealed, should we make people change their Gen 6 Pokemon guess to be more specific? Or should we keep it as a placeholder spot until all Gen 6 Pokemon get revealed?

[Inactive Account404]

I think a person should be allowed to change his guess only twice.

[Knight]

I'm interested in this, I'll play. Can I say "new Mewtwo form" as one of my bets since it's name hasn't been released?

[Konnor97]

Warning: Wall of text in spoiler tag.

Concerning guess changes, I say after a character that gets revealed that would conflict a person's guess, they should have to make a new post or something while pointing out the old guess on their list and then showing what it will be changed to. For example: FE14 lord is revealed, Chrom is then considered conflicting or unlikely, and then the person guesses, say, Zoroark as a replacement guess. And going similarly with what Silver said, I say they should get one "freebie-switch" per guess-slot for a conflicting/unlikely character, and one more before the first newcomers are announced. As in, say if the 6th gen version of Lucario/Zoroark is revealed as a newcomer, then they have keep Zoroark as a part of their list, and they can't get Zoroark switched out.

Oh, and in the unlikely case that if this occurs, that if an "unlikely" character is switched out, but they are actually in, the person I say should gain like 2 points or something for it due to it being a somewhat-correct guess that was forced out due to the forced-guess switch. Like on the lines of, "I was right, but then I was forced to switch." This does not apply for pre-reveal guesses that you had before but switched out of, due to it being your choice. Oh, and I say you get to add as much people as you want before the the first character is revealed to your list, as long as you the newbies out.

Example: Little Jimmy guesses Shadow, Mega Man, Chrom, Ghirahim, Sylveon, and Peppy. He decides later that he doesn't like Peppy and Ghirahim, and he replaces them with Pac-Man and Wreck-it Ralph (respectively). A newcomer is revealed as Priam (who randomly turns out to be the FE14 lord because why not), and so Little is forced to switch out Chrom, and so he chooses Zoroark. Later, a new 6th gen pokemon is revealed (Code name Pumbloom), and it is also to the game. Zoroark's spot has gotten its switch already, so it stays out, and Sylveon is changed to Zero.

(Little's current list: Shadow, Mega Man, Zoroark, Wreck-it Ralph, Zero, and Pac-Man). Later, Shadow, Mega Man, Zero, Chrom, Wreck-it Ralph, Gen 3 Pokemon Trainer, and Ghirahim are also revealed, and there are no other newcomers. Little gets +10 points each for Shadow, Mega Man, Zero, and Wreck-it Ralph. He loses 10 points for Pac-Man and Zoroark. He loses 5 points for Priam, Pumbloom, and Gen 3 Pokemon Trainer. He gains 2 points for having Chrom right in the first place, but then was forced to switch out of. He has a final total of 107 points.

For the Gen 6 rule, I say that they're free with their general guess until all Gen 6 pokemon are known. Because if a Gen 6 dude is shown that you think will be in and you guess for it (EX: Sylveon), but it's revealed that it's a pokemon that wasn't known before the first newcomers were shown (EX: something that would be considered the Gen 6 Lucario/Zoroark), then that's kinda unfair.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Konnor97

[Knight]

Or perhaps a bet can be switched out for a cost, also we should have a date set up where no one can change their bets anymore. Also, I'm not entirely sure about this one, but perhaps third-party characters should be worth more, since they're much less likely than first and second party Nintendo franchises.

[Konnor97]

Yeah, maybe something like a 5 or 10 point bet where if you get it right, you either get less points/break even, but if you're wrong you lose more than usual.

For the 3rd-party thing, that seems fairly reasonable.

[Randoman]

I guess I should also mention that I was thinking of having a preliminary "SSB4 Newcomer Group Brainstorm" thread, so we can all discuss likely newcomers and what we officially know about SSB4 that other people may not know. That way, it'll level the playing field, people won't be completely off with their guesses, and it'll prevent lots of guess changes at the start. What do you guys think?

So I guess we all agree that a 6th Generation Pokemon placeholder slot is allowed. But once the 6th Generation is completely revealed, do we force everyone with the placeholder slot to change it to a specific Pokemon, or should we allow them to keep the placeholder slot as it is, but it'll only earn them +2? Also, should we allow people to remove/change their 6th Gen placeholder slot if they don't think any of the revealed Pokemon will be playable, without having it count towards the guess change limit?

To Konnor97: I think I get what you're saying about the guess changing. Though I also think we should let people be able to remove a guessed character without switching a new one in. I'm personally okay with the +2 rule for a character that was initially guessed but switched out, though I have a feeling that can be somewhat abused and taken advantage of somehow.

To Sliver Pegasus: A 2 Guess Change/Removal limit sounds good (so a person can either change their guess to something else, or remove it if they feel like a previous guess wasn't likely). Seeing how Sakurai confirmed that SSB4 won't be as newcomer heavy as the past 2 games, a 2 guess change limit seems appropriate.

As for being completely free to make changes before the very first character is revealed, that's sounds okay. There'll probably be quite a lot of info some people may not know about SSB4 that they'll only find out when others start making their guesses, and it not really cheating if they didn't know and change their guess accordingly once they find out. For example: I don't want people guessing Goku and Luffy, only to find out that they aren't even eligible for Smash Bros. since they didn't originate from a video game. I also wanted to make that Newcomer Brainstorm thread to prevent people from making guesses that'll never happen and putting themselves at a disadvantage.

I'm interested in this, I'll play. Can I say "new Mewtwo form" as one of my bets since it's name hasn't been released?

Of course. Anything regarding Gen 6 Pokemon is allowed to use unofficial names or placeholder guesses, since not enough has been revealed about the 6th Gen, and Pokemon is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises and they'll very likely have new playable Pokemon as a result.

Hmm... I'm kind of wondering if I should count Mewtwo's new form as a 6th Gen Pokemon if it does show up as a playable character. I'm kind of leaning towards yes, since there might be some new forms of old Pokemon that show up as playable, and nobody would've guessed those.

Also, it's much riskier guessing Mewtwo's new form over a placeholder 6th Gen slot, so should we let people guess that and reward them with more points (+20 instead of +10), still having the same -10 penalty since not guessing a 6th Gen Pokemon is quite risky as it is?

Also we should have a date set up where no one can change their bets anymore. Also, I'm not entirely sure about this one, but perhaps third-party characters should be worth more, since they're much less likely than first and second party Nintendo franchises.

I guess a date for final guesses makes sense, since when roster leaks start pouring in people will be changing their guesses like crazy. I'm not exactly sure when that should be, but I'm thinking 1 month before SSB4 gets released in the country it first gets released in.

I'm kind of worried about what we do if the roster gets leaked from the E3 demo stations available as Best Buy during the E3 period this year. It didn't happen for Brawl's demos, but it's still a factor we might need to take into account. I guess if that happens, we close the roster switching completely, even though that sounds quite unfair. What do the rest of you think? I want to come up with the rule for that now, since I don't want people suggesting rules when it happens since people are more likely to suggest the rules that work better in their favour.

As for third parties being worth more, that sounds reasonable. I'm thinking maybe +20 for correctly guessed 3rd parties, -20 if you guess a 3rd party that isn't in the final roster, and the regular -5 if you don't guess a 3rd party and they show up in the final roster (to keep with the high risk, high reward suggestion you're talking about).

[Konnor97]

I guess I should also mention that I was thinking of having a preliminary "SSB4 Newcomer Group Brainstorm" thread, so we can all discuss likely newcomers and what we officially know about SSB4 that other people may not know. That way, it'll level the playing field, people won't be completely off with their guesses, and it'll prevent lots of guess changes at the start. What do you guys think?

This seems like a pretty good idea. It's better to have a no-advantage field for all than a advantaged/disadvantaged field for some.

So I guess we all agree that a 6th Generation Pokemon placeholder slot is allowed. But once the 6th Generation is completely revealed, do we force everyone with the placeholder slot to change it to a specific Pokemon, or should we allow them to keep the placeholder slot as it is, but it'll only earn them +2? Also, should we allow people to remove/change their 6th Gen placeholder slot if they don't think any of the revealed Pokemon will be playable, without having it count towards the guess change limit?

I say it should be the person's choice if they want to go with a guess of any 6th Gen Pokemon or with a specified guess, as long as the general one gets less points than the specific person for a right answer. As for the second question, I say sure, although there's a good chance that there will be one, but if they really want to change it, that instance can be a special freebie switch.

To Konnor97: I think I get what you're saying about the guess changing. Though I also think we should let people be able to remove a guessed character without switching a new one in. I'm personally okay with the +2 rule for a character that was initially guessed but switched out, though I have a feeling that can be somewhat abused and taken advantage of somehow.

Yeah, you're right. If they want to do a switch thing, that should be fine. The +2 rule was mainly for if there would be an auto-character change if the original guess became fairly unlikely (like with a FE14 lord vs. Chrom situation), and if the fairly unlikely one actually was a character. It wouldn't count if they just switched on their own accord. The switching because they feel like it (like say Lloyd to Shadow), but with the original guess (Lloyd in this sit.) not getting the +2 points if it was right all along (kind of like switching from answer A to answer C, but you don't get partial points if it was A). Maybe they can still keep their "unlikely" guess (Chrom in the above situation) if they want.

I guess it just kinda depends if the conflicting character/unlikely character switch if mandatory or not.

As for being completely free to make changes before the very first character is revealed, that's sounds okay. There'll probably be quite a lot of info some people may not know about SSB4 that they'll only find out when others start making their guesses, and it not really cheating if they didn't know and change their guess accordingly once they find out. For example: I don't want people guessing Goku and Luffy, only to find out that they aren't even eligible for Smash Bros. since they didn't originate from a video game. I also wanted to make that Newcomer Brainstorm thread to prevent people from making guesses that'll never happen and putting themselves at a disadvantage.

Of course. Anything regarding Gen 6 Pokemon is allowed to use unofficial names or placeholder guesses, since not enough has been revealed about the 6th Gen, and Pokemon is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises and they'll very likely have new playable Pokemon as a result.

Hmm... I'm kind of wondering if I should count Mewtwo's new form as a 6th Gen Pokemon if it does show up as a playable character. I'm kind of leaning towards yes, since there might be some new forms of old Pokemon that show up as playable, and nobody would've guessed those.

I say Mewtwo X (as I'll refer to the new forme as) should be counted as a 6th Gen dude, and possible new formes also.

Also, it's much riskier guessing Mewtwo's new form over a placeholder 6th Gen slot, so should we let people guess that and reward them with more points (+20 instead of +10), still having the same -10 penalty since not guessing a 6th Gen Pokemon is quite risky as it is?

Yeah, that seems fair for guessing a risky spot. It's especially risky because it will involve bringing back an old character who left before (in a way).

I guess a date for final guesses makes sense, since when roster leaks start pouring in people will be changing their guesses like crazy. I'm not exactly sure when that should be, but I'm thinking 1 month before SSB4 gets released in the country it first gets released in.

1-1.5 months seems alright.

I'm kind of worried about what we do if the roster gets leaked from the E3 demo stations available as Best Buy during the E3 period this year. It didn't happen for Brawl's demos, but it's still a factor we might need to take into account. I guess if that happens, we close the roster switching completely, even though that sounds quite unfair. What do the rest of you think? I want to come up with the rule for that now, since I don't want people suggesting rules when it happens since people are more likely to suggest the rules that work better in their favour.

Shoot, yeah. We can't just say don't go to them, because a friend might tell them anyway. We'll need to think on this more, but if it seems like there isn't another, even riskier option, then I say keep the roster switching closed as a possibility. Maybe like a Plan B.

As for third parties being worth more, that sounds reasonable. I'm thinking maybe +20 for correctly guessed 3rd parties, -20 if you guess a 3rd party that isn't in the final roster, and the regular -5 if you don't guess a 3rd party and they show up in the final roster (to keep with the high risk, high reward suggestion you're talking about).

That seems good. There's going to be a low number of 3rd parties I'd imagine, so if you're trying lock on to one of them, making the risks higher makes sense.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Konnor97

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Rules seem fine to me now that I understand them, although maybe people can change their pic for things like Gen 6 Pokemon since that hasn't been fully revealed or anything, or another game/series in that same boat.

[Randoman]

Alright, I guess I'll be starting the Newcomer Brainstorm Thread now, and we'll keep this rule thread running for now, since there's still a few issues that I want people to help me out with and so more people can add feedback.

Rules seem fine to me now that I understand them, although maybe people can change their pic for things like Gen 6 Pokemon since that hasn't been fully revealed or anything, or another game/series in that same boat.

Don't worry, we'll let people change their guesses for Pokemon due to how little is known about Gen 6. I'm not sure what other game series that should apply to besides Pokemon, but I guess we'll find out when more Nintendo games get revealed.

Does anyone else think that since Gen 6 Pokemon is a freebee switch/removal, we should let any newly announced titles for existing Nintendo franchises allow a freebee guess addition/switch/removal for a character from that series? I mean, it's a bit weird we have a freebee for Pokemon, but aren't allowing that for if a new FE gets announced.

Also, is anyone planning to guess a new Pokemon trainer style newcomer, with 3 Pokemon as part of their roster? We can't really have the same point style for that kind of newcomer, since it's especially risky and hard to pinpoint the correct 3 Pokemon and the trainer they'll use.

Yeah, you're right. If they want to do a switch thing, that should be fine. The +2 rule was mainly for if there would be an auto-character change if the original guess became fairly unlikely (like with a FE14 lord vs. Chrom situation), and if the fairly unlikely one actually was a character. It wouldn't count if they just switched on their own accord. The switching because they feel like it (like say Lloyd to Shadow), but with the original guess (Lloyd in this sit.) not getting the +2 points if it was right all along (kind of like switching from answer A to answer C, but you don't get partial points if it was A). Maybe they can still keep their "unlikely" guess (Chrom in the above situation) if they want.

I guess it just kinda depends if the conflicting character/unlikely character switch if mandatory or not.

Oh, we're not making it mandatory for them to switch or remove a guessed character if a revealed character somewhat disconfirms another. It'd be ideal for them to change their guess, of course, but we'll still leave it up to the person who guessed if they want to change/remove their guesses or not. I mean, say if the FE14 lord gets confirmed and it's a non-sword lord, there's still a slight chance Chrom might be in, so anyone who guessed Chrom can still keep their guess towards him. I didn't know you implemented the +2 rule because you thought guess switches were forced, so I guess the +2 rule won't be needed now?

Shoot, yeah. We can't just say don't go to them, because a friend might tell them anyway. We'll need to think on this more, but if it seems like there isn't another, even riskier option, then I say keep the roster switching closed as a possibility. Maybe like a Plan B.

Also, regarding the "roster being leaked by the demos" situation, I'm meaning if someone hacks the demos and leaks the roster when Nintendo themselves haven't revealed the character. Any newcomer that is officially revealed by Nintendo and is playable in the demo stations at best buy, I have no problems with. Even if the Best Buy Stations have a few characters in the demo that weren't confirmed by Nintendo for whatever reason, that's okay as well. However, if the whole roster gets revealed by someone hacking the SSB4 demo stations (this has happened for demos of games like Dissidia Duodecim and Playstation All Stars), then that's when I think we should close bets and make everyone's lists final. Whether the leak is real or fake, I still don't want people putting themselves at an unfair advantage or disadvantage by changing their guesses to fit the leak's data. We'll only take roster leaks seriously after SSB4 demo stations start being available and if the leak is showing on many prominent gaming news sites. I mean, closing the bets from something as unofficial as a posted leak on GameFAQs isn't really something to worry about.

[Konnor97]

Does anyone else think that since Gen 6 Pokemon is a freebee switch/removal, we should let any newly announced titles for existing Nintendo franchises allow a freebee guess addition/switch/removal for a character from that series? I mean, it's a bit weird we have a freebee for Pokemon, but aren't allowing that for if a new FE gets announced.

A freebie for a newly announced title seems fair enough, because it wouldn't be the first time they had a character in the roster that didn't have a game yet, but the game was announced earlier.

Also, is anyone planning to guess a new Pokemon trainer style newcomer, with 3 Pokemon as part of their roster? We can't really have the same point style for that kind of newcomer, since it's especially risky and hard to pinpoint the correct 3 Pokemon and the trainer they'll use.

Maybe about 7 or 8 points for a correctly guessed gen/correctly guessed order for evolutions (like basic grass type, stage 1 fire type, and stage 2 water type), assuming they do something like that again, and about 15 points for both, considering that you're pretty much aiming for 4 correct picks in one slot.

Oh, we're not making it mandatory for them to switch or remove a guessed character if a revealed character somewhat disconfirms another. It'd be ideal for them to change their guess, of course, but we'll still leave it up to the person who guessed if they want to change/remove their guesses or not. I mean, say if the FE14 lord gets confirmed and it's a non-sword lord, there's still a slight chance Chrom might be in, so anyone who guessed Chrom can still keep their guess towards him. I didn't know you implemented the +2 rule because you thought guess switches were forced, so I guess the +2 rule won't be needed now?

Yeah, the +2 was only for forced switching. Since switching in the situation isn't forced, the +2 rule isn't necessary.

Also, regarding the "roster being leaked by the demos" situation, I'm meaning if someone hacks the demos and leaks the roster when Nintendo themselves haven't revealed the character. Any newcomer that is officially revealed by Nintendo and is playable in the demo stations at best buy, I have no problems with. Even if the Best Buy Stations have a few characters in the demo that weren't confirmed by Nintendo for whatever reason, that's okay as well. However, if the whole roster gets revealed by someone hacking the SSB4 demo stations (this has happened for demos of games like Dissidia Duodecim and Playstation All Stars), then that's when I think we should close bets and make everyone's lists final. Whether the leak is real or fake, I still don't want people putting themselves at an unfair advantage or disadvantage by changing their guesses to fit the leak's data. We'll only take roster leaks seriously after SSB4 demo stations start being available and if the leak is showing on many prominent gaming news sites. I mean, closing the bets from something as unofficial as a posted leak on GameFAQs isn't really something to worry about.

That seems fair enough. If it's like at most 2 or 3 characters, then it should be at least a little fine, and if the whole roster gets spoiled through it by hacking or whatever, then the bets and list shut down seems good.

[ShinRPGamer]

If it's not too late to enter i'm interested in this. Can I join?

Edited May 24, 2013 by ShinRPGamer

[Knight]

We haven't started yet, so I would assume so.

[Randoman]

If it's not too late to enter i'm interested in this. Can I join?

Yep. Even once the official guessing thread has started, you can still join in, but at a -5 penalty for every newcomer that has been revealed (that'll likely be at June 11). You might want to read this thread through (or at least the opening post), to get a rough idea on the rules (feel free to suggest rule changes/additions).

The Brainstorm thread isn't the actual game yet, it's just a thread to even the playing field and notify everyone on what newcomers are likely in SSB4.

I'll probably be starting the official thread on Monday or Tuesday.

[Randoman]

Sorry if the double post isn't allowed, but since this is a timely update, it's kind of necessary.

Okay, here are the final rules. If you want any rule changes, suggest them now before I start the official guesses on Tuesday:

- we guess newcomers only and we don't guess character cuts

- Melee veterans that were cut from Brawl do not count as newcomers and will not be accounted for, except for Mewtwo and its new forms. However, if Mewtwo is in and its new forms are not included in its moveset (Eg: in its standard moves, special moves, or final smash, taunts do not count for this), Mewtwo will not be counted as a newcomer

- Everyone starts at 100 Points

- A -5 Penalty for each new character revealed for late joiners of the game will be implemented

- The only placeholder guess that is allowed currently is a 6th Generation Pokemon, with other placeholder slots being allowed as more games from existing Smash Bros. series are announced/new series that are likely to have playable characters in Smash Bros are announced. Swapping/adding placeholder guesses that this rule applies to does not count towards the swapping/adding guess limit

- Every correctly guessed newcomer is +10 points.

- Every newcomer that is guessed but isn't in the final roster is -10 points

- Exceptions to the above 2 rules include:

-Third party characters, who are +20 if correctly guessed and -20 if incorrectly guessed

-Specific new (2013 and onward) characters that were swapped from a placeholder guess (Eg: changing 6th Gen Pokemon slot to Mewtwo's new form) or characters with a very recent debut in a game (new characters from games that are announced from 2013 and onward), who are +20 if guessed correctly and -10 if incorrectly guessed

-placeholder guesses (Eg: 6th Gen Pokemon), which are +2 if correctly guessed and -10 if incorrectly guessed (if a new Pokemon form that debuts in 6th Gen for an old Pokemon is confirmed as playable, that'll count as a 6th Gen Pokemon for the placeholder guess)

-Pokemon Trainer type newcomers (people that are able to swap between three Pokemon), who are +5 for the right elemental order (eg: correctly guessing fire as base form starter, grass as intermediate form starter, and water as final form starter), +10 for the right Pokemon Generation, and +2 for correctly guessing there's another Pokemon trainer newcomer and neither of the above two are right. -10 if there aren't any Pokemon Trainer type newcomers whatsoever.

- Every newcomer that does show up that you didn't guess is -5

- Swapping/adding/removing guesses is unlimited before the first SSB4 newcomer reveal (which is likely on June 11). After that, only two guess swaps/additions/removals (meaning you can only do those three things twice) are allowed, unless a new game from a Nintendo franchise gets announced (see rule 5), in that case you're allowed one free guess addition/swap for that game franchise

- Guesses will be closed 1 month before SSB4 gets released in the country it first gets released in (if the release date gets changed, the betting time will be adjusted accordingly). However, if there are any leaks of a full roster after the demo stations are available and they start showing up on many prominent sites, bets will be closed then.

Edited May 27, 2013 by Randoman