Shovel Knight Anonymafia - Game Over

[Olivier]

but Plague dying confuses me, why did scum kill Plague???

They couldn't get rid of me because I'd be talking anyways if they killed me, so probably to etiher keep Treasure alive by getting rid of somebody who was pursuing them, or to frame Treasure by getting rid of somebody who was pursuing them.

[Rain Nijika]

okay, sf is really not working properly and I don't know if it will last long enough

regarding my role, I am the 1-shot Blacksmith and I could supply a 1-shot BPV to someone I want to. However, the BPV arrives after kills are concluded and therefore, I could not give it to a person who was going to die that night. I was hooked on N1, which I assume was done by King Knight and I intended on giving that BPV away to Specter Knight, except I could not. Regarding why I chose Specter Knight, it was because he was less likely to be shot on N1 compared to King Knight and I asked Prims to send me to use my action on the same person over IRC without reading the thread on N2.

What does not make sense to me is based on what I read till page 18, iirc, I expected Propeller Knight to be more likely town compared to Plague Knight. This bothers me because Plague Knight died over Propellar Knight.

reads based on what I had before I could not enter sf,

Specter Knight: I do not have any problems with the play of Specter Knight so far. All his posts seem to be actively hunting for mafia while his thought progressions are quite easy to see and in most cases agreeable, including the scum read on me. There is also the meta reason that he is obvious scum when he is mafia and not agreeable at all. If those were not enough reasons to be town reading him, the added reason to town read him comes in here. where if he was mafia, he could have easily left his vote on me a while longer and gotten me to claim.

Propeller Knight: Propeller Knight being town is unfortunately from a meta perspective and I cannot explain it further. But, Propeller Knight not dying does bother me.

Mole Knight: since I have not read anything much after making me reads post on Mole Knight, my reads have not improved much. But from what I remember regarding votals on D1, I think it does not make much sense to have Mole Knight and Treasure Knight on the same scum team.

Treasure Knight: My reads are the same on him as it was.

I hope this post goes through. I also hope sf continues to work so that I can play catch up

[Estelle]

Because if you think everybody could be scum under certain circumstances you have to weigh which are the most/least probable to get anywhere in the game.

I don't think you read the snippet with Plague correctly, it says that out of you and Plague I trusted Plague the most (and therefore thought he was more likely town).

Yeah, but I still don't know why you said they deserve to win. That's something you'd say about extremely strong townreads.

Did you mean it was PoE between me and Plague?

from my POV it has to be out of Mole/Treasure/Tinker and I'm confused on why Treasure thinks a Mole/Tinker scumteam is unlikely but doesn't seem to be scumreading me or Specter. Who is scum then?

I don't know :| I really thought Mole/Plague was the scumteam.

if he's trying to suggest one of us might possibly be scum I would suspect something way stronger than what he's been throwing out at the moment

I don't know whether to be flattered or insulted.

I probably should have just ranted to Prims and let myself be lynched, that way Polar might have survived and I would have a clear conscience.

Treasure, you stated why you don't think I'm scum (or why it's not likely, anyway), but do you think Specter is scum? Why is a Mole/Tinker scumteam unlikely, again?

Scumteam PoE, Mole and Specter have had some strange interactions like what he said about Mole during the night.

Mole and Tinker don't make sense as a scumteam to me because Mole pushed Tinker D1 when he was the leading wagon.

@Tinker; if you could contact Prims over IRC but not SF, why did you not do it sooner? Unless you missed phase end for a different reason, how did you submit a N1 action?

If you've read up to page 18, you must have seen this. You have not responded to it, so how can you say your read on me has not changed?

[Olivier]

Yeah, but I still don't know why you said they deserve to win. That's something you'd say about extremely strong townreads.

Did you mean it was PoE between me and Plague?

Not really, "I can think of reasons why everybody could be scum and reasons why those scummy things could have come from town" just ends up flowing into "well I guess I wouldn't care about losing to these people because if they're scum they definitely did a good job", which is pretty much the reason why I've been giving Mole a pass even though there's scenarios where he could be scum.

I do want to see what he does this phase though.

Not PoE as much as you two initially seemed like the central pivots for scumteams, then after checking back on Plague's interactions with people it seemed like Tinker was way more of a central pivot.

I can confirm that what I got was a BPV, I'm ultimately unsure whether that means anything towards Tinker's alignment since I claimed stump and should have technically been off of the mafia team's to-kill list as a result. I would've liked Mole to out their results on King before Tinker claimed but there's not much that can be done about that now.

I might as well clarify that the stump claim was a gambit, I do become a stump if killed but I don't get to deadtalk if the game is in *yLo, so technically killing me last night would've gotten rid of me for the rest of the game.

I have to attend to obligations for a while, I won't be gone for too long hopefully

[Rain Nijika]

@Tinker; if you could contact Prims over IRC but not SF, why did you not do it sooner? Unless you missed phase end for a different reason, how did you submit a N1 action?

If you've read up to page 18, you must have seen this. You have not responded to it, so how can you say your read on me has not changed?

[spoiler=my net]

I missed phase end N1 because my net stopped working. I did not miss my action on N1, I sent it in and I already mentioned my action failed on N1. In case you are wondering as to why I did not catch up the thread then, it was because I was lazy and having more fun doing other things until I realized my net was not working at all when I came back to it, which was why I did not get to read further. My net did come back after a day, but a few sites were not working at all. At that point, the only sites that were working were gmail and sites under gmail, like youtube. This stayed for a day, until most of the other sites like facebook, yahoo and outlook came back but sf still was not working along with the site where I read manga from. Finally, sf came back for a short while, when I made that post, but, went away very soon. I used IRC to ask someone else to contact Prims for me.

@Tinker; Mole is active enough for me to have confidence in my read, and obviously there's no point in trying to convince him he is scum.

I am interested to know if people scumread me and why, so I can convince them otherwise.

If they trust me, they're more inclined to read my cases and vote my scumreads.

I don't get how Black knowing what you think of Mole would affect how you take his response.

I assume the purpose of the question is to see if it's consistent with his earlier read on Mole, as opposed to your read of Mole.

Apparently your case on my content was a reaction test? I can't tell what you are thinking. There seems to be no interest in your lynch today, so I will leave it to tomorrow.

well, I was not active enough, but my reads are quite bad this game. I do not have much of any scum reads, so, what I am having to do is remove my town reads from the equation and call the people I am town reading by a lower margin to be transformed into scum reads. For Mole Knight, even though he is active, I do not think it changes the fact much that there is not much around to scum read people with.

knowing why people are scum reading you is a great thing, especially when used to trap scum, however, being someone's town read does not equate to being a good at finding mafia. There are a lot of games where I did not agree with Prims in SSBUM and got into a huge fight with him over it, when I was hard town reading Prims himself.

Black Knight had said that she did not like Mole Knight's list post and also the fact that Mole Knight did not have a priority in it. I do not think that is scummy. I found Mole Knight scummy for an entirely different reason and I therefore wanted to know what Black Knight thought of that specific post he did not mention. Based on what Black Knight might have said regarding it, I could have gotten a better understanding of Black Knight's thought process and therefore get a better grasp on her alignment.

As for the vote on you, even though it was a reaction test, I still do think you are the least likely person to end up as town, because like I mentioned, I have been town reading most of the game here. If this were a normal game where there were scum reads lying left and right, I would say you would more a null read than a scum read.

I can confirm that what I got was a BPV, I'm ultimately unsure whether that means anything towards Tinker's alignment since I claimed stump and should have technically been off of the mafia team's to-kill list as a result. I would've liked Mole to out their results on King before Tinker claimed but there's not much that can be done about that now.

I might as well clarify that the stump claim was a gambit, I do become a stump if killed but I don't get to deadtalk if the game is in *yLo, so technically killing me last night would've gotten rid of me for the rest of the game.

you are going to have to forgive me or not for giving you the BPV for I never actually saw the stump claim until now, whether you want to believe that or not is entirely up to you though. I did not notice all the other claims either, so, I did not know what the plan for the night was. I would probably have still given the BPV to you, even if I did know the stump claim, because

1) my BPV does not reach someone who will die that night

2) someone who is actually scum hunting would be better to be left near end game.

I actually saw something very interesting that Plague Knight was doing, so, I will try to recreate that;

Possible scum teams, however, I am going to ignore myself and Specter Knight, because of me knowing I am town and I think Specter Knight's play only make sense as town to me,

1) Mole-Treasure

This makes no sense because Treasure Knight almost sent Mole Knight off a cliff on D1

1) Mole-Propeller

This one, I think is possible, mainly because of the lack of conversations between them

2) Treasure-Propeller

This one is also quite likely, because the did not have any major conversations. Since I am thinking Treasure Knight is mafia, I think this combination makes the most sense.

Other possible combinations are

me with Propeller Knight/Specter Knight. I do not think it makes sense for Mole Knight to have me as his primary scum read and me having Treasure Knight as the only scum read, but, maybe I am just trying WIFOM

Specter Knight with anyone, literally. I do not think anyone can be taken out of this list, but, as I mentioned earlier, his play only makes sense as town to me.

Treasure Knight, who do you think are the most likely mafia team?

[Olivier]

I think scumteam speculation is driving this game a little too wild, when I get to posting again I'll probably focus more on individual players.

[Cú Chulainn]

i think im not dead because i haven't exactly been very helpful or accurate w/ my reads this game

[Cú Chulainn]

also sry treasure i didn't mean to insult you, what i was trying to say from all of that is i really don't think you're scum

[Cú Chulainn]

did scum kill plague over me to try and get everyone to think im scum bc tinker's posts are making me think that and i don't like it

[Estelle]

Not really, "I can think of reasons why everybody could be scum and reasons why those scummy things could have come from town" just ends up flowing into "well I guess I wouldn't care about losing to these people because if they're scum they definitely did a good job", which is pretty much the reason why I've been giving Mole a pass even though there's scenarios where he could be scum.

I do want to see what he does this phase though.

Not PoE as much as you two initially seemed like the central pivots for scumteams,

This seems legit

I don't know how you came to that conclusion, but I'm not a Mech Eng major so I'll take your word for it.

knowing why people are scum reading you is a great thing, especially when used to trap scum, however, being someone's town read does not equate to being a good at finding mafia. There are a lot of games where I did not agree with Prims in SSBUM and got into a huge fight with him over it, when I was hard town reading Prims himself.

Black Knight had said that she did not like Mole Knight's list post and also the fact that Mole Knight did not have a priority in it. I do not think that is scummy. I found Mole Knight scummy for an entirely different reason and I therefore wanted to know what Black Knight thought of that specific post he did not mention. Based on what Black Knight might have said regarding it, I could have gotten a better understanding of Black Knight's thought process and therefore get a better grasp on her alignment.

As for the vote on you, even though it was a reaction test, I still do think you are the least likely person to end up as town, because like I mentioned, I have been town reading most of the game here. If this were a normal game where there were scum reads lying left and right, I would say you would more a null read than a scum read.

Treasure Knight, who do you think are the most likely mafia team?

what are you even trying to say here? you once didn't trust someone you were townreading, does that mean you and everyone else only trust your scumreads?

this is legit too

Mole/you on individual scumminess, Mole/Specter on interactions

also sry treasure i didn't mean to insult you, what i was trying to say from all of that is i really don't think you're scum

No, it was a joke. Since you're saying my reads are weak, but you expect my reads to be strong. Definitely no offense taken.

[Cú Chulainn]

I actually agree with you on Tinker; him townreading me and then turning around and going "but Propeller didn't die so is likely scum with Treasure" is really suspect and it feels planned, which is what I was trying to get at in my previous posts. I also don't get "Treasure and Propeller haven't really had any conversations" because that really isn't true either, and I was 100% willing to get Treasure lynched until right at the end of D2 yesterday when his reactions started changing my mind. I don't get the thought process here and it also doesn't help that he BPVed the stump claim (even though I know their internet died and they probably weren't able to read that and something similar happened to me so I can't really judge on that part but again it doesn't help because this means I can't get much of a read out of their role use /: ).

And why are both Mole and Tinker 100% certain Specter is town? Like I know I think Specter is town and haven't explained why I think so because I feel like it would take too much time (and part of it involves meta which I really don't want to bring up bc there's been too much meta in thos game), but I can explain why I think so. Mole and Tinker just seem to assume it without ANY doubt without even explaining why though.

[Cú Chulainn]

I can explain why I think so if I need to*

Seriously, I keep reading Tinker's posts today and I'm just not really sold, I don't know.

[Cú Chulainn]

Scumteam PoE, Mole and Specter have had some strange interactions like what he said about Mole during the night.

Mole and Tinker don't make sense as a scumteam to me because Mole pushed Tinker D1 when he was the leading wagon.

Mole and Specter do make sense to me too which is why gutparanoia is freaking me out so badly. /:

But is it not possible that Mole was bussing?

[Estelle]

It is possible, but I think it's unlikely because bussing at the stage Mole did only makes sense if he's given up on avoiding the lynch and is just trying to get his buddy towncred. But his deadline D1 posts don't sound like scum who's given up.

[Cú Chulainn]

this game is so stressful aaaaaaaaaA

[Estelle]

I think we should lynch Mole first, because Mole/Specter is more likely than Tinker/Specter. Tinker targetting Specter with the BVP after the latter claimed stump seems like the kind of interaction buddies would avoid, unless they're messing with us.

[Estelle]

It's not even 24 hours into the phase yet, so there's no need to panic.

[Estelle]

By which I mean, not until the last 24 hours.

[Estelle]

*not until the last 24 hours do we need to decide.

Wow my head is in the clouds

[Cú Chulainn]

fuck you specter knight why can't i beat your stage. ;_;

[Estelle]

You didn't have a ghost of a chance!

[Olivier]

I guess the game is still too boring for Mole to post.

Tinker, what's your read on Mole and why? You apparently read the whole game but jumped right into scumpairs instead of updating your outdated reads in #601. Has your Treasure read changed?

[Prims]

43 hours and 21 minutes remain in the day. Mole Knight has been prodded.

[Cú Chulainn]

I'm trying to further my progress in shovel knight to see if I will get any insight on who is mafia and so far I'm feeling mole bc I beat him the quickest out of the rest of the bosses, even black knight. scum imo

[Olivier]

So I reread for a while. If assuming the scumteam is among Treasure, Tinker and Mole, every combination has some form of bussing.

Treasure + Tinker has Tinker pushing Treasure all game.

Treasure + Mole has Treasure pushing Mole all game.

Mole + Tinker has Mole pushing Tinker late D1.

Propeller + Tinker and Propeller + Treasure would be the only combinations for the current gamestate that don't have any bussing in them, but I don't think they're very likely. I don't think I'd lynch Propeller even if they somehow survived into 3p LyLo.

When looking at players individually, I would probably lynch Tinker. I disagree with Plague's early read on Tinker based on shoving a townread away from themselves because rereading that interaction the intent seems to be to push King on flimsy logic. Post #32 is what could've been seen as townie, but it comes as a direct response to King asking "what's your motivation in rebuking my town read on you?", which creates a situation where scum couldn't have really said anything else, so the shoving the townread away comes as a result of town pressure, not Tinker's own initiative.

The rest of their content up until D3 is pretty much just asking people questions. The only interesting post was #224 which I found townie at the time based on the confrontational tone, but while clinging on to your read is something that you're likely to do as town if you're convinced of it, it's also just as likely that scum would cling onto it under pressure instead of coming up with something new and risking looking bad in the process. The new arguments he brings up aren't really good either. Defending one's read in front of others is what you do as town when you're pursuing a scumread and people don't agree or listen, and town players can be interested in looking town as well because it gives them an ego boost and a good scumhunting position where other people are more likely to listen to them. Ultimately it could've also come from scum with a priviledged outlook on their buddy's play, which would make sense considering that "your playstyle looks like you're interested in being townread by others" is an odd accusation.

I initially found nothing wrong with his D3 posts, but I slept on it and when reading them again #601 doesn't really flow right into #604. #604 should've been a catch up post, but instead Tinker spends most of his time justifying himself from Treasure and only really addresses current content by commenting on scumteam possibilities. Even within the short scumteam analysis he doesn't really make any direct note of Propeller being in both of his possible scumteams and continues listing Treasure as his top read ("Since I am thinking Treasure Knight is mafia, I think this combination makes the most sense.")

So essentially there is no change in reads between D1 content Tinker (#601) and D3 content Tinker (#604) save for easily fabricated Propeller paranoia.

There are scummy things that Treasure has done that I'd still bank a lot on, but there's a lot more content from them that could go either way and I'm not really willing to risk fucking up in LyLo. If a Tinker lynch doesn't lose the game and it goes into 3p LyLo then Treasure is the more likely buddy because the Tinker -> Treasure bus doesn't ever result in anything. Tinker disappears mysteriously at D1 deadline, is completely gone throughout D2 and doesn't place their vote on Treasure in a phase in which a Treasure lynch isn't unlikely. There's also no real push towards a Treasure lynch in this phase since Tinker's D3 posts are almost entirely defensive.

My Mole read is pending on their posting, and I still have to take a closer look at roles stuff to make sure that I'm not being dumb, but I'm putting this out for now.