Possible war between Armenia and Azerbajan

[blah the Prussian]

So, some background. The Caucuses has always been a clusterfuck, but when the Ottoman Empire committed genocide against the Armenians and the survivors fled to present day Armenia, it was more of a mess. The Christian Armenians and Muslim Azeris essentially mixed together, and at the border of both states there are no clear borders between the two populations. After the Soviet Union fell the two countries fought a war in 1992, which basically ended in a tie with nothing really being accomplished. Now, it looks like that conflict is flaring up again. Of note is that Armenia is a key Russian ally while Azerbajan is a big Iranian ally, so this could mean big things for the alliance between Moscow and Teheran.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35949991

[Topazd]

ew

Edited May 18, 2018 by Topazd

[Yojinbo]

I don't think a lot of people know how severe the consequences of this could be.

[eclipse]

I don't think a lot of people know how severe the consequences of this could be.

You're right, source: me.

Do you mind expanding on this?

[blah the Prussian]

You're right, source: me.

Do you mind expanding on this?

For one thing, this represents a conflict of interest between Russia and Iran, as Russia backs Armenia while Iran backs Azerbajan. Turkey will also probably get involved at some point.

[Yojinbo]

Russia will have to take Armenia's side, Iran and Turkey will be on Azerbaijan's.

If Russia goes againt Azerbaijan they - by extension - go against their current ally Iran. It's very likely that the people in Chechenia will support the Azerbajanian cause and Nato is still calling dibs on Georgia. Russia also still has to deal with the crisis in Ukraine and the fact that the NATO is massively arming up their eastern front. Russia is currently surrounded by conflict situations and any mistake they make will probably blow up the whole situation into a full-fledged world war.

Iran is in a pretty bad position as well. They're in constant competition with KSA about being the legitimate "protecting power" over the muslims in the world. They can't just sit there and stay neutral on this issue, but neither going against Russia nor letting Azerbaijan down is an option that will end out well for them. From the pov of both Russia and Iran the only way to solve this mess is through diplomacy. If you think that Lawrow and Mohammed Zarif are men reasonable and skilled enough to do that, you would be right.

The problem is that Turkey will also support Azerbaijan against Armenia [that alone should ring any historian's alarm bells]. And with how little Erdogan and his puppet Davutoglu care about considerate politics it's only a matter of time until Turkey gets involved and by further extension NATO [as allies to Turkey] and the Kurds. All of that is going to take place in a region that is not only very close to the current centerpoint of a massive Völkerwanderung but also where the Syrian army, Russia, Iran, Hizbollah and the Kurds are fighting against Daesh, Al-Nusra and other Jihadist groups. Needless to say, the golf monarchies aren't just gonna let that happen without making their own claims. It's all a big, complicated mess but it's no coincidence that some historians compare the current geopolitical situation to that of the time shortly before WWI. A war between Armenja and Azerbaijan might just become the ultimate trigger.

Edited April 5, 2016 by Yojinbo

[Moblin Major General]

^If what you say is true, where does the US stand? With Armenia, the "Western" Nation, that puts it on the side of Russia, a country we honestly still hate, or Azerbaijan, which puts us with Iran, a country that still hates us? Or do we back Georgia, the neutral country that fought a war with Russia less than 10 years ago and is still bitter? I say the last is most probable, but so is the first. We may not trust Russia at all, but in every global conflict, they have been a convenient ally, even with their opinion of us.

[Magical CC]

^If what you say is true, where does the US stand? With Armenia, the "Western" Nation, that puts it on the side of Russia, a country we honestly still hate, or Azerbaijan, which puts us with Iran, a country that still hates us? Or do we back Georgia, the neutral country that fought a war with Russia less than 10 years ago and is still bitter? I say the last is most probable, but so is the first. We may not trust Russia at all, but in every global conflict, they have been a convenient ally, even with their opinion of us.

Nowhere. US doesnt gain anything from this conflict. It's best to stay away from this. For now, all of the big daddies from both sides are trying to cool things down which is the best for everyone.

[Yojinbo]

^If what you say is true, where does the US stand? With Armenia, the "Western" Nation, that puts it on the side of Russia, a country we honestly still hate, or Azerbaijan, which puts us with Iran, a country that still hates us? Or do we back Georgia, the neutral country that fought a war with Russia less than 10 years ago and is still bitter? I say the last is most probable, but so is the first. We may not trust Russia at all, but in every global conflict, they have been a convenient ally, even with their opinion of us.

That'll depend on who becomes the next president I guess.

[Butterstroke]

I don't think it is going to be as big as it is going to get if it does happen. Turkey (and possibly Iran) is to be more focused on ISIS and defeating them. I am sure Russia is probably on the same page. They may join in the conflict if it happens after ISIS is defeated. But, those are just my thoughts.

[Yojinbo]

Turkey isn't doing dipshit to deal with ISIS though. Erdogan has funded them pretty generously and jailed just about every journalist that pointed out his blatant support of IS and Al-Nusra.

[blah the Prussian]

I don't think it is going to be as big as it is going to get if it does happen. Turkey (and possibly Iran) is to be more focused on ISIS and defeating them. I am sure Russia is probably on the same page. They may join in the conflict if it happens after ISIS is defeated. But, those are just my thoughts.

Erdogan at least is glad to have ISIS kill the Kurds for him. If Turkey actually wanted ISIS gone there would be crescents flying over Raqqah right about now. As for Iran, as Yojinbo mentioned, they see this conflict as important for their standing in the Islamic world, and Russia is the same way with Armenia, especially as Muslims have a long history of doing horrible shit to Armenians, and Armenia was the first ever Christian nation. Throw in the Orthodox Church being a big pillar for Putin's support, as well as fallout from the Panama scandal, and you have a conflict he can't back down from.

[Naughx]

The fact that Turkey is part of NATO is somewhat quite strange, the only way that the allies would help them is if there is an attack on Turkish soil. (Article 5)

Edited April 6, 2016 by Naughx