All Hail the Dancing Manakete: New Banner Revealed

[Raven]

1 hour ago, Anacybele said:

I'd be pleased to see even Mia added and I despise her.

them's fighting words, right there. 1v1 me m8

[Arcanite]

4 minutes ago, BANRYU said:

Dragon Dance. Hahaha that's so cool. Very happy I predicted that.

It just turned into pokemon

[JJ48]

Just now, Arcanite said:

It just turned into pokemon

No, even getting set upon by Zubats every other step wasn't as bad as archers in the Arena.  -_-

[shadowofchaos]

@Ice Dragon

Apparently, even Vincent is amused.

Feels like heroes really is fanservice bonds beyond time.

I feel like I looked back into the era before I joined the FE community.

 

Edited March 13, 2017 by shadowofchaos

[Ice Dragon]

6 minutes ago, JJ48 said:

No, even getting set upon by Zubats every other step wasn't as bad as archers in the Arena.  -_-

Robin eats archers in the arena on the counterattack.

 

As for the mention of Falchion against green Ninian a page or so back, we already have the absurdity of Naga against Nowi and Falchion against Fae, both of which deal 70+ damage.

... And that reminds me I need to properly test the order of calculation for Dragon Fang with effective damage and weapon triangle modifiers to make sure I'm not messing anything up. Let's hope the training tower gives me a dragon to test on tonight.

 

1 minute ago, shadowofchaos said:

Apparently, even Vincent is amused.

Feels like heroes really is fanservice bonds beyond time.

I feel like I looked back into the era before I joined the FE community.

Ahaha. Memory lane's seeing a lot of traffic today.

[Alternis]

Welp gonna blow every last one of my orbs to get Ninian.

I need my dancing dragon lady.

[shadowofchaos]

I'm just surprised that people seem to like Ninian.

She's definitely not one of the characters I used to see open love about back in the day.

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

Lol at the salty Ike fans.

I've always liked Ninian, but I wouldn't call her my favourite in FE7. Priscilla would be closer to that.

What if they gave Priscilla Rehabilitate? Mounted + best staff? Let's gooooooo

[XeKr]

If Ninian is a green manakete dancer, I’m spending all my saved orbs on her. sorry nino

If the gacha works as theorized, where the game rolls rarity first, then displays the colors of the rolls, and Ninian is the only green in this banner (seems likely), I think there’s around a 40+% chance of getting her with 20 green pulls (around my 70+20 saved orbs) and 60+% for 35 green pulls (around 130+20 orbs that I see some have saved up).

Edited March 13, 2017 by XeKr

[Ryuke]

12 minutes ago, XeKr said:

If Ninian is a green manakete dancer, I’m spending all my saved orbs on her. sorry nino

If the gacha works as theorized, where the game rolls rarity first, then displays the colors of the rolls, and Ninian is the only green in this banner (seems likely), I think there’s around a 40+% chance of getting her with 20 green pulls (around my 70+20 saved orbs) and 60+% for 35 green pulls (around 130+20 orbs that I see some have saved up).

How did you do the math. Would you pull out of 5 stones if there is no green?

[Kiran]

God damn it. More dragons. I really need a falchion or Naga user. And she's a sing to boot? I see S+ tier already. 

[Ice Dragon]

3 minutes ago, Kiran said:

God damn it. More dragons. I really need a falchion or Naga user. And she's a sing to boot? I see S+ tier already. 

Assuming Ninian is green, there are a lot of Falchion users already out there, which is probably a sufficient reason for her to drop her from S+. Julia would also destroy her pretty badly, and Julia isn't uncommon due to how well she counters Linde and most other blue units.

Assuming she is unable to counterattack at range, she's a less reliable counter for Linde, Reinhardt, and Robin than Julia is, also, since she requires an extra turn to return attack.

[XeKr]

33 minutes ago, Ryuke said:

How did you do the math. Would you pull out of 5 stones if there is no green?

You have to pull at least 1 before backing out, but you also get a discount on orbs if pulling 2 or 3 times in that same round, and your probability increases slightly from not pulling 5*s after a while. So it’s somewhat balanced out. For simplicity, it’s an estimate, which is why I said ‘around’ and used '+' signs. 90 orbs approximately translates to 90/5=18 pulls, plus/minus a few so I said 20 (figure slightly more discounts than no green rounds). 150 orbs approximately translates to 30 +/- a few so I just said 35.

The general calculation of n number of green pulls is:
Probability of at least 1 Ninian given a number of green pulls
= 1 – probability of no Ninians given a number of green pulls 
= 1 – (probability of NOT Ninian given green)^(number of green pulls) 
= 1 – (1 – P(Ninian|Green)^n . 

I’ll write out how I think P(Ninian|Green) works later but I quickly calced with Bayes’ Theorem around 2.66% (depends slightly on the rarity of sibling bond characters after the banner ends)

Edited March 13, 2017 by XeKr

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

5 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Assuming Ninian is green, there are a lot of Falchion users already out there, which is probably a sufficient reason for her to drop her from S+. Julia would also destroy her pretty badly, and Julia isn't uncommon due to how well she counters Linde and most other blue units.

Assuming she is unable to counterattack at range, she's a less reliable counter for Linde, Reinhardt, and Robin than Julia is, also, since she requires an extra turn to return attack.

Yeah, thinking about it, I'm having trouble thinking of a way to fit a Green Dancer on my team of Lucina/Julia/Kagerou/Sharena. Maybe I could run Lucina/Ninian/Reinhardt/Sharena? Reinhardt greatly benefits from the mobility a Dancer provides, while the other two members are pretty solid on their own.

That's saying I'll get Ninian though lol.

[Ryuke]

3 minutes ago, XeKr said:

You have to pull at least 1 before backing out, but you also get a discount on orbs if pulling 2 or 3 times in that same round, and your probability increases slightly from not pulling 5*s after a while. So it’s somewhat balanced out. For simplicity, it’s an estimate, which is why I said ‘around’ and used '+' signs. 90 orbs approximately translates to 90/5=18 pulls, plus/minus a few so I said 20 (figure slightly more discounts than no green rounds). 150 orbs approximately translates to 30 +/- a few so I just said 35.

The general calculation of n number of green pulls is:
Probability of at least 1 Ninian given a number of green pulls
= 1 – probability of NOT Ninian given a number of green pulls 
= 1 – (probability of NOT Ninian given green)^(number of green pulls) 
= 1 – (1 – P(Ninian|Green)^n . 

I’ll write out how I think P(Ninian|Green) works later but I quickly calced with Bayes’ Theorem around 2.66% (depends slightly on the rarity of sibling bond characters after the banner ends)

Yeah.. you forgot the case where there are NO GREEN when you use your 5 orbs. If that happens to be a 5* COLOR ... your probability goes back to 3%/5 characters.

[ExpendableExtra]

Guess I should of expected the thread get derailed partially by Ike fans.

Anyways, I am hoping Lucius is a blue mage, but it a rather dim chance as all the recent banner units have been shown in their "Attack" Poses which so far have accurately depicted their weapons in game and focus units in this banner look particularly "actiony" so this is likely their Attack poses as well. Hopefully the staff there is just to show off his Bishop class version of him and that there is a magic book hidden behind Rebecca's bow and Jaffar's tattered cape.

Guess it was too much to hope for Priscilla being a Mage Cavalry, hopefully something will change soon to let healers be viable in arenas. That said, interested in Ninian like everybody else!

[XeKr]

8 minutes ago, Ryuke said:

Yeah.. you forgot the case where there are NO GREEN when you use your 5 orbs. If that happens to be a 5* COLOR ... your probability goes back to 3%/5 characters.

As I said, that only affects how many pulls you get from a certain number of orbs. If you have 90 orbs, sometimes you'll get no green and waste orbs, but sometimes you'll get discounts that don't cost 5, which balances out. In retrospect I probably should just have used n = 18/30 pulls for 90/150 orbs since you do lose 5 orbs for each wasted round, but eh. Regardless, the calculation presented is assuming you're only pulling Green, so the orbs->summon conversion doesn't really come into it. If you happen to only get 15 green pulls from 90 orbs, that's bad luck, but just use n = 15.

For simplicity, the calculation uses 3% for the 5* Focus chance the whole time, which is the worst-case scenario. The actual probability is slightly higher due to 5* chances increasing, but it's by a marginal amount. That's also partially what the '+' is for.

Edited March 13, 2017 by XeKr

[Ryuke]

7 minutes ago, XeKr said:

As I said, that only affects how many pulls you get from a certain number of orbs. If you have 90 orbs, sometimes you'll get no green and waste orbs, but sometimes you'll get discounts that don't cost 5, which balances out. In retrospect I probably should just have used n = 18/30 pulls for 90/150 orbs since you do lose 5 orbs for each wasted round, but eh. Regardless, the calculation presented is assuming you're only pulling Green, so the orbs->summon conversion doesn't really come into it. If you happen to only get 15 green pulls from 90 orbs, that's bad luck, but just use n = 15.

For simplicity, the calculation uses 3% for the 5* Focus chance the whole time, which is the worst-case scenario. The actual probability is slightly higher due to 5* chances increasing, but it's by a marginal amount. That's also partially what the '+' is for.

This makes sense. I was wondering what you were planning to do in situation where there's no green. (what's the odd of no green? 1/Permute(5)  wow... my prob is awful now. (3/4?) ?) 

Edited March 13, 2017 by Ryuke

[Phoenix_Kensai]

1 hour ago, shadowofchaos said:

I'm just surprised that people seem to like Ninian.

She's definitely not one of the characters I used to see open love about back in the day.

In my case, I just love the idea of having a manakete dancer... that and Blazing Sword might be my favorite Fire Emblem. I didn't dislike Ninian, but those are my main motivations for summoning here. I'm excited for a Blazing Sword banner, if a little disappointed that Lucius might be a healer.

[Sunwoo]

I don't like Ike as much as I used to, he's fallen behind both Eliwood and Roy in my favorite lords list but he's still all right. I just wish Eliwood had better art here, I don't use him much because his eyes creep me out.

Right now, I'm not picky about what new characters are added to the game or what continent we stay with because I have favorites who are not in Heroes for almost all the worlds. Plus, I still want to roll for some characters I want but haven't run into yet (Eirika, Ephraim, and Sakura) so I'm completely fine with not necessarily wanting a focus character that badly.

Still, I want to pull for Ninian. Especially if she's 5-star. Would be nice to have a 5-star dancer who can function right off the bat (sorry Olivia, but you're 4-star and die to like everything).

[Roflolxp54]

I'm tempted to pull for Ninian not unlike how I felt tempted to pull for Eirika in previous banners but I really want to save my orbs for drawing CYL poll Lyn.

[Arcanite]

22 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

I just wish Eliwood had better art here, I don't use him much because his eyes creep me out.

They pierce the soul, those eyes. 

Anywho, I'm not sure how I feel about healers in the focus. I just don't understand the difference between a 5 star healer and a 4 star one. They have one purpose: "eat" damage and heal damage. Can a five star take more damage? Perhaps. Can they heal more? Most of the time no, unless there is a healer that gets a better spell at 5 star (which most of them don't from what I see). Unless this new healer gets recover or the all-healing special, I'll keep using my baby gurl Serra. Or if they get something new like some sort of Fortify-esque staff that heals everyone without the special.

Edited March 13, 2017 by Arcanite

[dragonlordsd]

4 minutes ago, Arcanite said:

They pierce the soul, those eyes. 

Anywho, I'm not sure how I feel about healers in the focus. I just don't understand the difference between a 5 star healer and a 4 star one. They have one purpose: "eat" damage and heal damage. Can a five star take more damage? Perhaps. Can they heal more? Most of the time no, unless there is a healer that gets a better spell at 5 star (which most of them don't from what I see). Unless this new healer gets recover or the all-healing special, I'll keep using my baby gurl Serra.

This is a general trend for fire emblem:

Healers' usefulness is dependent on how long the maps are. In games where you're blowing through maps in a couple of turns (Awakening and Birthrite, for example), they're basically useless. The same holds true of Heroes.

To date, the most units on any map has been... 6. Considering that most 1v1 exchanges last 2 turns at most, that means that you lose so much more from having a non-combatant than you gain from their ability to keep your characters in the fight.

On top of that, the way the weapons triangle works means that most matchups result in blowouts.

Hector takes no damage from Ephraim, Tiki takes basically no damage from Hector, Ephraim takes basically no damage from Tiki.

Edited March 13, 2017 by dragonlordsd

[PowerVZ]

Rebecca, Ninian, Lucius, and HOLY MOLLY Jaffar, the hype....!! (don't care about Priscilla)

Hope they will be as broken as in the game though haha :D

Would've prefered Karla over Karel, i like her personnality more.

Edited March 13, 2017 by PowerVZ

[maybe]

i kinda hope they add fe6 karel too later, it'd be neat to have both karel's with how different they are