Voting Gauntlet: Battle on the Beach!

[Magical Glace]

In truth, I don't really mind the idea of Leo losing because of the multiplier.  It's a game, the point is to have fun during the event proper, right?  It's not very fun when there's an obvious winner, whether the obvious winner is my favored of the options or not.  Back in the March gauntlet, I wasn't having much fun in Round 1 when Eirika was crushing Elise, our victory in the round was a foregone conclusion and I had no interest.  The next round, our loss to Lucina was again a foregone conclusion, and it was boring.

Edit: @Rezzy Whoa, neat, I haven't really been checking my ranking much, haha.  Is there a particular alternate to Cecilia you'd like to request, since I asked Arcanite too?

Edited August 2, 2017 by Glaceon Mage

[Arcanite]

11 minutes ago, Glaceon Mage said:

Ah, sure thing.  Do you have any particular requests?  

Anything that doesn't have a cavalry skill in the C slot

Even if it's still a cav, as long as it has a C skill that isn't cav oriented, I don't care :p

@Rezzy yes I'm on team Leo

[Ice Dragon]

8 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

Your examples weren't very good examples. How is Nino as popular as people like Ike, Lyn, Roy, etc? Same with the others you mentioned.

I guess after tomorrow I'm done with this gauntlet. Frederick and Robin are both going to lose, and there's no one else I'm willing to support.

If you scrape off the super-popular main characters off of the film at top, you're left with a pretty good mix of non-main characters that can hold their own in a popularity contest. All of the characters @Zangetsu listed can do that, whether you believe them to be popular or not.

 

Also, random note, Robin is probably winning the round against Tiki unless something weird happens. The gap is slowly closing because Robin has a larger team, but it's closing slowly enough that Tiki probably won't get a chance for another multiplier.

 

4 minutes ago, Superbus said:

I was wondering how in the blue hells people were at almost 500K points within hours of the gauntlet starting.

With numbers on the line - the number of feathers for rewards, etc. - that makes the whole endeavor pointless. It's already a P2W game designed for whales, now we're adding dumb luck and fidgety, Aspie-like devotion to the mix?

The biggest problems with the current multiplier system are

1. The multipliers for closer matches and clear winners are clumped at the start of the round, and
2. The multipliers later in the round are so few and far in between that it's incredibly easy to miss them without watching the hour-by-hour graph to predict when they will occur.

This basically means you're SoL if you can't be awake for the first 6-8 hours of the gauntlet.

The previous fixed 3× multiplier would occur more often because it closed the gap a lot less, allowing the losing team to fall back into disadvantage state faster. However, it looks like the developers do want to always have the threat of an upset, which is why they increased the multipliers at the cost of making the multipliers way too far spaced out.

 

While the threat of an upset adds a bit more drama to the game, the biggest effect of the multiplier is the fact that it now makes it disadvantageous to bandwagon with the winning team because you simply won't get the points to make the cumulative rankings (but you'll rank really high on your team if you are awake and active for the first 6-8 hours of the round).

[Anacybele]

5 minutes ago, Glaceon Mage said:

In truth, I don't really mind the idea of Leo losing because of the multiplier.  It's a game, the point is to have fun during the event proper, right?  It's not very fun when there's an obvious winner, whether the obvious winner is my favored of the options or not.  Back in the March gauntlet, I wasn't having much fun in Round 1 when Eirika was crushing Elise, our victory in the round was a foregone conclusion and I had no interest.  The next round, our loss to Lucina was again a foregone conclusion, and it was boring.

This.

I may be disappointed that Frederick is losing already, but I'd be even MORE upset if it was just a big curbstomp like the first two gauntlets. Those weren't any fun and the only point in them was to get a few feathers, not go all out trying to get your character a higher score than the opposing one and waiting in anticipation to see who wins a close match.

It was boring watching Ephraim lose to Lucina in that final round, and then Minerva losing to Camilla.

But anyway...next time Frederick is in a gauntlet. Next time...

Edited August 2, 2017 by Anacybele

[Zangetsu]

What are the odds of another multiplier being use again? Will that multiplier be decided factor?

[Rezzy]

4 minutes ago, Glaceon Mage said:

In truth, I don't really mind the idea of Leo losing because of the multiplier.  It's a game, the point is to have fun during the event proper, right?  It's not very fun when there's an obvious winner, whether the obvious winner is my favored of the options or not.  Back in the March gauntlet, I wasn't having much fun in Round 1 when Eirika was crushing Elise, our victory in the round was a foregone conclusion and I had no interest.  The next round, our loss to Lucina was again a foregone conclusion, and it was boring.

Edit: @Rezzy Whoa, neat, I haven't really been checking my ranking much, haha.  Is there a particular alternate to Cecilia you'd like to request, since I asked Arcanite too?

Any non-Red would be great.  Greens are good at taking out Leo's blue weakness, but as long as I don't have Red overlap, I can usually get decent team coverage. 

1 minute ago, Oboro! said:

Anything that doesn't have a cavalry skill in the C slot

Even if it's still a cav, as long as it has a C skill that isn't cav oriented, I don't care :p

@Rezzy yes I'm on team Leo

Cool, glad to have you on board.  I won't promise to go with your team next gauntlet, but I'll give your team strong consideration, as long as one of my top favorites isn't in the next one.

Just now, Zangetsu said:

What are the odds of another multiplier being use again? Will that multiplier be decided factor?

For which match?  Leo vs Xander, Xander might get one tomorrow, but I don't think Leo will, unless Xander really overshoots us.

[Arcanite]

Just now, Rezzy said:

Cool, glad to have you on board.  I won't promise to go with your team next gauntlet, but I'll give your team strong consideration, as long as one of my top favorites isn't in the next one.

Your bride Riceload is so good it's bad

[Anacybele]

Frederick MIGHT get one tomorrow. But that seems like a pretty big might.

[Ice Dragon]

4 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

But anyway...next time Frederick is in a gauntlet. Next time...

I can totally see Great Knights vs. Paladins or something like that:

• Lex
• Duessel
• Frederick
• Gunther
• Jeigan
• Marcus
• Seth
• Titania

 

2 minutes ago, Zangetsu said:

What are the odds of another multiplier being use again? Will that multiplier be decided factor?

You'll have to specify which match.

[Zangetsu]

3 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

You'll have to specify which match.

 

Oh sorry, Robin VS Tiki

Edited August 2, 2017 by Zangetsu

[Magical Glace]

@Oboro! I swapped my leader to Klein, who has Draw Back, Dragon Fang, and Hone Attack 3 inherited.  Hope that helps.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Glaceon Mage

[Anacybele]

1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

I can totally see Great Knights vs. Paladins or something like that:

• Lex
• Duessel
• Frederick
• Gunther
• Jeigan
• Marcus
• Seth
• Titania

Yep, that would be pretty even. Definitely no clear winner.

I think I'm going to stop using Summer Freddy for right now to see if a lack of a bonus might help drop him back enough to get the multiplier.

[Arcanite]

1 minute ago, Glaceon Mage said:

@Oboro! I swapped my leader to Klein, who has Draw Back, Dragon Fang, and Hone Attack 3 inherited.  Hope that helps.

Hehe heh 

That's definitely going to help. Thank you!

[Rezzy]

1 minute ago, Oboro! said:

Your bride Riceload is so good it's bad

Mwa ha ha ha ha ha

1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

I can totally see Great Knights vs. Paladins or something like that:

• Lex
• Duessel
• Frederick
• Gunther
• Jeigan
• Marcus
• Seth
• Titania

 

You'll have to specify which match.

I would like to see a Jeigan Gauntlet

Jeigan

Arran

Oifey

Marcus

Seth

Titania

Frederick

Gunter

[Arcanite]

2 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

Seth

That's all I need to see

team Seth will be obliterated, but still

[Ice Dragon]

4 minutes ago, Zangetsu said:

Oh sorry, Robin VS Tiki

Assuming the current pattern holds up, there will not be another multiplier. However, if Tiki's gains slow down significantly or Robin's gains speed up significantly, it's entirely possible (current projections put Tiki going from +2% to -8% in the remaining time).

[Zapp Branniglenn]

If Leo loses it will...continue my flawless streak of never winning a round of VG since launch. What does a victory screen look like anyway? Does it have fireworks or somethin'?

[Magical Glace]

1 minute ago, Gustavos said:

If Leo loses it will...continue my flawless streak of never winning a round of VG since launch. What does a victory screen look like anyway? Does it have fireworks or somethin'?

Spoiler

It doesn't have fireworks, sorry.

 

[Arcanite]

3 minutes ago, Gustavos said:

If Leo loses it will...continue my flawless streak of never winning a round of VG since launch. What does a victory screen look like anyway? Does it have fireworks or somethin'?

It looks like feathers 

[Zangetsu]

3 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Assuming the current pattern holds up, there will not be another multiplier. However, if Tiki's gains slow down significantly or Robin's gains speed up significantly, it's entirely possible (current projections put Tiki going from +2% to -8% in the remaining time).

So in other words she would lose if she did gain a multiplier because Robin would get one in return?

 

2 minutes ago, Gustavos said:

If Leo loses it will...continue my flawless streak of never winning a round of VG since launch. What does a victory screen look like anyway? Does it have fireworks or somethin'?

Just blue text, that's all.

[Ice Dragon]

7 minutes ago, Zangetsu said:

So in other words she would lose if she did gain a multiplier because Robin would get one in return?

If Tiki gets the multiplier in the last hour or third-to-last hour, Tiki probably wins. Otherwise, Tiki probably loses. The teams are so close in size that a 7× multiplier would probably instantly swing the balance the other direction for one or two swings before the scores get too high to continue.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Ice Dragon

[Rezzy]

12 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Assuming the current pattern holds up, there will not be another multiplier. However, if Tiki's gains slow down significantly or Robin's gains speed up significantly, it's entirely possible (current projections put Tiki going from +2% to -8% in the remaining time).

What the Leo v Xander match-up look like in terms of possible mulitplier(s)?

[Ice Dragon]

9 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

What the Leo v Xander match-up look like in terms of possible mulitplier(s)?

Forecasts here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Uy_ahqcH76loBNST3w_lPTdY3JqifNjmMru_6rmjnk/htmlview

By the current estimates, no one is going to get any more multipliers other than Elise (because she's getting curbstomped so goddamn hard), but Tiki can get pretty close to a last-hour bonus if the stars align and sacrifices are made.

 

@Anacybele

The sad thing is that Frederick actually would have won this round against Gaius if it weren't for the multiplier. Frederick has a roughly 5% lead in team size, but the extremely small lead means he has absolutely no chance of recovering from being hit by the last Gaius multiplier.

 

EDIT: Running some approximate math and thought simulations in my head, this actually means that any team that has a 0-8% lead in size is basically fucked because there's literally no way they can recover from the initial yo-yo.

Teams that have an 8-22% lead in size have a nearly guaranteed win because they will exit the yo-yo at disadvantage and gain points slowly enough to prevent the opponent from getting a multiplier to turn the tables.

Teams that have a greater than 22% lead in size are at the mercy of luck.

Teams that have a 300% lead in size (quadruple the size) will guarantee that their opponent will never have a lead after the initial yo-yo. Ever.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Ice Dragon

[Anacybele]

6 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

The sad thing is that Frederick actually would have won this round against Gaius if it weren't for the multiplier. Frederick has a roughly 5% lead in team size, but the extremely small lead means he has absolutely no chance of recovering from being hit by the last Gaius multiplier.

...Well damn. :( I wouldn't have expected that. But it's nice to know that more people joined Frederick than Gaius.

[Rezzy]

4 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Forecasts here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Uy_ahqcH76loBNST3w_lPTdY3JqifNjmMru_6rmjnk/htmlview

By the current estimates, no one is going to get any more multipliers other than Elise (because she's getting curbstomped so goddamn hard), but Tiki can get pretty close to a last-hour bonus if the stars align and sacrifices are made.

 

@Anacybele

The sad thing is that Frederick actually would have won this round against Gaius if it weren't for the multiplier. Frederick has a roughly 5% lead in team size, but the extremely small lead means he has absolutely no chance of recovering from being hit by the last Gaius multiplier.

Thanks, I guess I'll be saving my flags for the next round.