Cuphead In: Don't Deal With the Mafia (Game Over)

[C. C.]

yeah my event starts an hour earlier than I thought it did so I need to head out too. i'm not sure i'll be back before deadline so

##Vote: Grim Matchstick

[Ochako Uraraka]

5 hours ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

i feel like you're accusing me of shutting down your arguments for scumteam possibilities with Baroness in them but are not engaging my reasons for thinking that they're unlikely. like you haven't answered why grim/baroness decide to bus each other on D3 after a buddy dies on D2, or my reasons for why I don't make sense as a buddy with Baroness.

I totally answered the Grim/Baroness thing, I even gave an example for scum doing something similar in a recent game, that's also the only thing you've said against a Grim/Baroness scumteam, so the argument against isn't really convincing to me.

I don't think I answered your qualms with the Briney/Baroness argument though.

[Ochako Uraraka]

...oh

Uh do I hammer?

[All Might]

Grim Matchstick is at L-1!

[Ochako Uraraka]

I don't think Baroness not getting quick hammered indicates anything because scum may not quick hammer  for reasons out of the game like timezones or work schedule. I would know because I've been on the good side of this debate as scum before.

[Olivier]

freedom

##Vote: Grim Matchstick

[All Might]

Hammer shut up

[All Might]

Grim Matchstick, Mafia Roleblocker, met a terrible fate!

It is now Night 5. Night 5 ends in ~24 hours whenever Prims says it does.

[Aizen]

Wally Warbles, Town Macho Cop, has been shot down!

It is now Day 6. You have a little over 72 hours to decide on a lynch. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. It is possible for town to lose following a mislynch today!

 

[C. C.]

werner this is where you tell us you were lying about being vanilla and actually you have a role?

[Estelle]

I wish!  But alas, flavor implies that whatever cool abilities I would've had were banned because the host hates me.

Still trying to puzzle out why scum would attempt to kill Cagney of all people on N1.  Grim sat on meta, so it's possible that Cagney was killed because of that.  But then there's N3, which I swear happened because someone wasn't paying attention.

Part of me wants to turbo-end this, since any lynch will do it.  The other part of me thinks that's throwing the game.

[Cú Chulainn]

I'm all for voting Cala imo.  I've stated before interactions between the two of them along with interactions with Rumor.

I also don't think Werner is scum with Grim at all and I still heavily think Captain is town.  I'm 90% sure it's Cala in this situation.

[C. C.]

if you don't have a role, what did you mean on D4 when you made these posts:

Likewise, I won't object to a Grim lynch at this point, because of what I quoted earlier.  That, and some meta things which will help the mafia.

Gotta take advantage of the fact that the mafia killed the wrong player!

I'll elaborate if we lynch the roleblocker.  But for now, you'll have to trust me on this.

I took that to mean at the time that you had some kind of role that would be useful lategame and that by not killing Wally, once the hooker died the mafia would have to kill Wally rather than you and you would be able to do something.

[C. C.]

Who do you think is scum Werner?

I know my stance all of yesterday was that Grim/Baroness didn't make sense as buddies but I'm also kind of waffling because I'm wondering why Cala wouldn't bus Grim yesterday and push a Grim/Baroness team over a Briney/Baroness team yesterday, given that Grim wanted out of this game so badly that he self-hammered. ugh. wally hadn't posted yet at the time so she wouldn't know what his thoughts were beyond what he said on earlier days.

cala did talk about grim voting sally over baroness as being scummy on d4, but it's tough for me to give that a lot of weight given it's one line through 4 days. i believe that she was busy bc irl stuff came up but idk whether I should extend that to her not talking about Grim more. she also defends grim on d3 while attacking baroness.

cala what's your opinion about these reasons for not thinking Baroness is Grim's buddy:

but like... the day after one scum unexpectedly dies early in the game, the other scum don't start bussing each other harder; they lessen their bussing/distancing efforts because they now need to survive longer. distancing is cool but not something you can normally afford to do at that stage unless one of the two people is in a really good position still, and neither Baroness nor Grim were. the point about Baroness adjusting his priority list as per the sentiment in the game doesnt quite make sense to me bc then why not vote Sally instead of Grim on d3? and given that the sentiment against you did a 180 after the Rumor guilty why would he still be pushing against you so hard, even if he wasn't voting you anymore?

i'm still very confused on who Cala is because I can't actually think of very many people with whom I've staged arguments as scum, and they don't seem like any of the people that do come to mind. Not sure if they have my identity right or not but I think it's fairly obvious so they probably do.

[Cú Chulainn]

4 minutes ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

Who do you think is scum Werner?

I know my stance all of yesterday was that Grim/Baroness didn't make sense as buddies but I'm also kind of waffling because I'm wondering why Cala wouldn't bus Grim yesterday and push a Grim/Baroness team over a Briney/Baroness team yesterday, given that Grim wanted out of this game so badly that he self-hammered. ugh. wally hadn't posted yet at the time so she wouldn't know what his thoughts were beyond what he said on earlier days.

cala did talk about grim voting sally over baroness as being scummy on d4, but it's tough for me to give that a lot of weight given it's one line through 4 days. i believe that she was busy bc irl stuff came up but idk whether I should extend that to her not talking about Grim more. she also defends grim on d3 while attacking baroness.

For the simple fact that if people had voted me or you then even with a demotivated Grim they could just vote and win.  There was plenty of suspicion being thrown around yesterday to the point that I believe multiple people could have potentially be lynched yesterday.  There were a lot of people going "Grim/cala is the most likely." With that being said Scum!Cala would much rather try to end the game that day instead of fight a battle today in a 1 v 3 scenario.

I think it's weird that she went from defending him > to saying stuff that he did was scummy > To saying that scum team was me/briney.  And I think it's scummy.  There are a lot of interactions between the two of them, as well as rumor.

[Cú Chulainn]

Scum team of Cala/Grim only has to convince you @Captain Brineybeard OR Werner to vote me since Wally was all over me in the past few days.  This is a massive reason as to why Cala doesn't Bus Grim.  Convincing 1 person, who was already waffling on their thoughts WRT me, is a lot easier when there aren't bad associations flipped.  You should reread the previous day phase if you don't quite understand what I mean by that.

Wally voted me, Cala Voted me.  Wally brought up the fact of scum not quick hammering and winning the game at that point in time, Since Grim has been confirmed scum that would either mean:

He didn't see it at the point in time, which is entirely plausible, it was only in that scenario for like 3 hours.

Or either myself or Cala is scum.  And a Cala/Grim scum team cannot quick hammer without Captain or Werner voting me at that point in time.  And during that day you were waffling on your read on me a few times.

Something Wally mentioned during the day phase was that scum would want to make one final push to win in that day phase and I can easily see that as a final push situation.  If either of you had voted me at that time then I most likely would have been hammered by Grim.

[C. C.]

idk it really depends on the individual player as to whether or not to bus in 5p/6p *ylo. i think if one scum member is significantly better than the other (or putting in much more effort than the other, as was the case here), I think bussing for some added cred in 3p/4p is generally the better strat than going all-in and tying yourself to the person who's not doing much. plus she could have easily said she thought grim/baroness was the likely scumteam and been like "i'm ok with lynching either" while really just only pushing you.

just getting impatient and/or wanting to be over with the game is definitely a thing and I've tied myself very strongly to my buddy in 5p before, but it just seems like a weird move here. i'll let cala respond i guess

[Cú Chulainn]

1 minute ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

idk it really depends on the individual player as to whether or not to bus in 5p/6p *ylo. i think if one scum member is significantly better than the other (or putting in much more effort than the other, as was the case here), I think bussing for some added cred in 3p/4p is generally the better strat than going all-in and tying yourself to the person who's not doing much. plus she could have easily said she thought grim/baroness was the likely scumteam and been like "i'm ok with lynching either" while really just only pushing you.

Generally people who state things like this are massively questioned, she's been stating that she felt grim was town I believe for the most part recently.  A lot of her push recently has been on a captain/Baroness scum team.

Like I can see the arguments you're stating on how scum could act in *ylo but you also have to take in how everyone else is playing and reacting, not just the scum team.  There was plenty of want to lynch me yesterday, as well as the 2-3 days previously.  Considering there was a high likely chance of you voting me last day phase I think scum attempting to push that lynch isn't wrong at all.

I'd much rather hear more from Werner whenever they can be back around.

[Estelle]

1 hour ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

if you don't have a role, what did you mean on D4 when you made these posts:

I took that to mean at the time that you had some kind of role that would be useful lategame and that by not killing Wally, once the hooker died the mafia would have to kill Wally rather than you and you would be able to do something.

I suspected Kahl had a role.  I was wrong.

WRT today's lynch (did I really just write that as "lunch"):

- Between the two kills on D3 and D4, and Grim sitting on Baroness the entire time, I'm not really feeling her as a lynch.  I could see Grim being lazy and attempting to bus that way, but Baroness put in a hell of a lot of /effort just to get Grim lynched, especially in D5.  This is either the world's most motivated scum player, or town.
- Briney could theoretically be scumbuddies with everyone, including myself.  However, that argument with Wally in D5 regarding townie moves doesn't seem scummy, either.
- Maria's the most obvious one, IMO.  The Hilda case's timing bugs me, and reading backwards, this slot had one lurkscum read.  There's also Cagney's early suspicion, and the subsequent N3 kill.

I'm really not feeling anyone but Maria in that slot.  Then again, the last time I was this certain I found scum, she flipped town.

[No Elimination]

apology for poor english

Where were you when berd was kill?
I at home dying over and over again to my favourite vidya gaem when Prims ring
"Wally is die"
"no"
and you?

[Ochako Uraraka]

I'm going to start with a defense because tbh I didn't think people were going to buy into the Briney/Baroness vs Grim/Cala dichotomy yesterday but:

 

-Rumor spending wallposts but not voting Grim, while spending a one liner on a false premise  voting me as her counterwagon is telling. When you're barely into D2 and there's much time left, why does scum vote their buddy instead of discussing with their buddy and agreeing to some other target? If that is supposed to be a bus, that's a terrible bus. The fact that she could write walls on Grim should tell anyone that it is more likely that she did so because she knew the alignments of Grim and Cala, hence the difference in the way she treats the two players. Anyway, if people are arguing a Grim/Cala/Rumor team, then its clear that this team didn't have good communication, otherwise a lot of what happened wouldn't make sense for that.

 

-The way Grim treats me and Rumor is similar to the point above, but not as telling. Still, if Grim is hard defending me but not defending Rumor as much, and even reconsidering it to the point of waffling on it in the same post, isn't it telling of how the player sees the game? It is as if he knows the alignments of the players so he knows what he's saying is factually correct. In any case, let's say he avoids voting the two of us to preserve us and votes BvBB instead. Why isn't he pushing the BvBB lynch hard? And if the argument is going to be "Grim is a bad scum player" then what am I doing, agreeing with his case on BvBB. but not voting her ever?

 

-I don't understand why the timing of my Hilda vote points to me being scum. First off, this aligns with the Rumor thing, but wouldn't it just be easier to stack votes on Sally/Wally at that time instead of Rumor voting me and me voting Hilda? If the timing is supposed to hint that we planned this then...why would we do this in the first place when there's a much easier and safer alternative? And if the argument is that Cala/Rumor didn't have communication then...what is scummy about the timing thing again? Hilda's flip shouldn't really change what I pointed out earlier: Its dumb for me to do this as scum when I've got an easier time pushing Wally and Sally.  I feel like the timing thing is stretching it since my posting style has been to post my stream of thoughts as  I read the game, but yeah. It takes so much time to make these posts.

 

-Let's talk about the Kahl kill. How do I benefit from Kahl's death? Kahl was townreading me for the longest time of all the players, past my Hilda stuff, and was meta reading me too. He was willing to lynch most people before me. Considering Grim's attitude towards the game, and in a Cala/Grim/Rumor team I would be the most proactive of the team, why would I kill someone that townread me for a good chunk of the game and isn't close to scumreading me?  Considering that Grim didn't care about playing, it would even make sense to bus Grim D4, get him lynched and keep Kahl alive while killing Werner, who began to suspect me upon Hilda's flip. Or Wally, given that the RB would've been lynched that day. Instead I do nothing as scum because ???

 

-Its really bad for scum!me to talk about other possibilities last phase and fight against the Briney/Baroness vs Grim/Cala dichotomy when all I need to do is get Baroness lynched and put up arguments for why Grim is more likely to be town, hard defending him all the way. I don't have to be putting effort into analyzing the other stuff as scum unless that's for WIFOM.

 

 

 

[Ochako Uraraka]

@Captain Brineybeard 's quote:

It is true that ideally scum would want to lessen their distancing efforts. My argument is that D3 wasn't a situation where they could do that. By the time Grim entered the thread, there were three votes already on Baroness. Its honestly easier to hop on to a scum!Baroness wagon, lynch her and get towncred than argue for some other vote, say Sally, and fight a Baroness lynch. He was the guy who called for a Baroness lynch D2 against the majority, it would take a lot of effort on his part to argue another lynch against Baroness. Grim already had good interactions after a Rumor flip, with a Baroness flip that would put him in a great position.(Why defend the counterwagon to your buddy only to vote another buddy?)

As for why Baroness did not vote Sally instead of Grim day 3, its honestly the EASIER route at that point in time. She arrives at the thread with 4 votes, and the thing about a Sally case is this: I was wrong about Baroness' D2 priorities when I quoted it D5 BUT that makes this one easier. A case on Sally during D3 would be harder to make because she didn't really think Sally was scummier than Grim during D2, so was she in a position to argue Sally over grim when she came into the thread? It would be weird because she could've done that at an earlier point in time. I personally don't think this point is that relevant though. Because if Grim was in a convenient position to take bussing as the easy way out, it makes sense for Baroness to play along.

 

But I think what's important here is that scum!Grim suddenly dropping Town!Baroness and voting Sally when he has Scum!Cala on his side makes no sense. Look at this: A scum team of Cala/Grim tries to push a lynch on Town!Baroness, only for the rest of the town to change their minds and lynch Hilda. Why suddenly drop Baroness? What causes Grim to become demotivated and think that a Baroness lynch is impossible? Especially when only one person had voted him, and someone townread baroness because of the night kill? That's pretty weak; he'd have been townie enough if he had just pushed. It makes more sense for Grim to drop Baroness if they're buddies and he just thinks the Sally vote is the easiest he can make.

 

 

[Ochako Uraraka]

Wrt 2nd paragraph what I mean to say is there wasn't a big change in Sally's play IMO for Baroness to make a stronger case on her. if anything, with more content, she was having more point in favor of her being town.

[Ochako Uraraka]

I spoke yesterday about how I thought of various scum teams. I think Baroness is likely to be the last mafia over Captain.

-I don't buy Baroness putting in an effort to lynch Grim as a towntell. She hasn't had the need to change her opinions ever since D2, she generally repeated the same arguments over and over during days 3 and 4, and her day 5 play is exactly what scum would do to put themselves in a better position anyway. Scum wants people to focus on a mislynch, they like shutting down other arguments, town don't continue a tunnel at MYLO and stop thinking about other possibilities. I don't think Baroness' efforts are a sign of town at all, its easy to tunnel your way through as scum without making any effort in faking any rethinking of stances.

-The 180 on her Rumor read is bad, null read on Rumor D1 is just what I'd expect from scum MI.

-Chainsaw defence of Rumor against Wally is a bad associative tell.

-I feel like Captain trying to get Rumor lynched or suggesting a Sally turbo D1 when his buddies DGAF about the game is unlikely, I think baroness' D1 in general fits scum MI. I also feel like there are good cases for Captain being town but the only case for  town!Baroness is arguing her as bad town. I also feel like scum!Captain today would've opened today with me being outright scum since he was pushing the dichotomy yesterday and it would be very easy to push my lynch today since everyone accepted that idea instead of waffling and making arguments for why I could be town.

-I can't talk about why a scum!Baroness would push me still during D3 while not actually voting me. But what I do know is this, and this is definitely biased from my end, but: we know for a fact that Baroness pushing a Grim/Cala scumteam was a pre-D5 thing, around D4, she was the first to push it. FMPOV it isn't a stretch to think that a scum!Baroness pushes a Grim before Cala because she knows Cala will look bad on a Grim flip, she won't get steam for a Cala before Grim lynch. Obviously from any other point of view this argument can go either way but I just wanted to put it out here.

-Honestly if people are going to say that Grim/Baroness cannot be a bus, they're going to have to argue why a Rumor/Cala thing is a bus; the situation  for a bus is way more convoluted for Rumor/Cala than Grim/Baroness, where the situation is convenient.

 

 

 

[Ochako Uraraka]

Wrt 1st paragraph: What I mean is it makes sense for Baroness to put in all of her efforts to get Grim lynched since that would put her on top. She can coast on the next day because of that; she can shut down arguments of other scumteams and push a Grim/Cala team, having an easy out for the next day.