Cuphead In: Don't Deal With the Mafia (Game Over)

[Cú Chulainn]

What cala has said so far today hasn't really changed my thoughts on her.  I'm more or less paranoid right now and that's why I want to hear what werner has to say tomorrow.

I'm trying not to doubt myself in this situation but I'm just second guessing because of what if's.

[C. C.]

another part of me just feels like it's baroness and that I'm overthinking everything. but their play doesn't feel very much like their scum play (although not as much to town meta as werner's stuff) and the interactions dont make sense.

the meta comparisons would be a lot more helpful if I had any idea who cala was so I could get a feeling for all three people.

part of the werner paranoia is that maybe just on account of her not being very active the past day or two i feel like both of you have done townier stuff on d5/d6. another part is that it feels a bit weird to me that kahl was killed before her? kahl makes sense as a kill from the perspective of him attacking grim but he wasn't as universally townread as werner i don't think. another part of it is that i've just been townreading them for stuff that happened so long ago that I feel like I might be giving too much weight to it.

but on the other hand i feel like lynching werner would be overthinking to the max degree. neither of you are even really thinking about them possibly being scum

contemplating a no lynch tbh just to rule out werner but I think at this point I might get nightkilled before werner even if werner was town and that wouldn't really help town much. although it would at least take the decision out of my hands!!!

[Cú Chulainn]

Couldn't scum just not kill and leave us in the same exact situation?

[C. C.]

2 minutes ago, Baroness Von Bon Bon said:

Couldn't scum just not kill and leave us in the same exact situation?

well now they definitely will so fuck

:thinking: would you point that out as scum

[Ochako Uraraka]

You still didn't respond to why I would kill Kahl as scum when he was townreading me the hardest; that's me making the game much harder for myself when Grim didn't even want to play the game.

Also if you want to look at Baroness' town meta you can look at how she played in Kemono Friends; I haven't compared her play lategame here with her play lategame there but I know that her early game was way different in Kemono Friends.

 

IIRC Werner has good interactions with Grim but defended Rumor sometime D1, I haven't reread that tbf.

 

 

 

[All Might]

Votals 6.1
Baroness Von Bon Bon (1): Cala Maria
Not Voting (3): Baroness Von Bon Bon, Captain Brineybeard,  Werner Werman

You have ~16.5 hours left in the day. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

It is possible for town to lose following a mislynch today!

[C. C.]

1 hour ago, Cala Maria said:

You still didn't respond to why I would kill Kahl as scum when he was townreading me the hardest; that's me making the game much harder for myself when Grim didn't even want to play the game.

Also if you want to look at Baroness' town meta you can look at how she played in Kemono Friends; I haven't compared her play lategame here with her play lategame there but I know that her early game was way different in Kemono Friends.

IIRC Werner has good interactions with Grim but defended Rumor sometime D1, I haven't reread that tbf.

i was defending you on d4 from baroness too i'm pretty sure. nobody except baroness was really pushing you much before d5 so idt that the kill is relevant. I didn't start pushing you again until after sally flipped town and before that it seemed like you were pretty safe.

[Estelle]

Hmmm.  Insert pre-emptive whining about the captcha here.

Said this about Honeybottoms at the end of D1.  Second half of my D2 first-post:

Quote

I was going to vote elsewhere, but realized that this is the crux between my reads on Sally/Grim.  Both of them defend Honeybottoms' lack of scum reads.  Someone else also posted about Honeybottoms not being worth a vote in D1, but I don't remember who that was.  Maria's an odd stand-alone.  Don't feel great about a slot that seems to think the entire game is town.  I'm well aware that at least one person in my scum pool is town, but I'll sort it out when there's more posts.

Dear Honeybottoms: WHO IS SCUM?

Started waffling on my Honeybottoms read after this, since I figured that she'd doc'd Briney or something.  Kept waffling until Wally showed up after I'd left for the phase.

That's about it when it comes to Honeybottoms.  However, it would be silly to scumread someone solely on the basis of defending a flipped scum, especially when there's a second one in the pile.  Townies can be wrong about their reads, since we're playing the guessing game.  It's why I'm not scumreading Briney's defense of Honeybottoms, or Hilda's D1 Djimmi vote.

Kahl was most likely Grim's idea, thanks to some comments I made on D4.

I still can't reconcile Baroness' actions as scum, though.  Why would scum work so hard to get a scumbuddy lynched in MYLO?  Had Baroness been scum, wouldn't Maria have been a better target?

The end of the week is a shitty time for me, with this week being especially bad.  Didn't realize I had plans for this weekend until Friday afternoon.

[Estelle]

Like, this is tempting to the point where I want to NL.  There's one of four possible kill targets.

Briney - Since I don't think that Baroness is scum, I'd most likely vote Maria.

Baroness - Briney would have to decide which of me/Maria were scummier.

Maria - This would confuse me the most, IMO.  I'd have to reread the entirety of Briney's posts.

Me - My last words would be a lot less lame than Wally's.

[Estelle]

On one hand, having this game drag out to D7's gonna suck.

On the other hand, it'll give us one final town read.  If we're at the point where we're doubting each other, it just might work.

[Cú Chulainn]

2 hours ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

contemplating a no lynch tbh just to rule out werner but I think at this point I might get nightkilled before werner even if werner was town and that wouldn't really help town much. although it would at least take the decision out of my hands!!!

 

2 hours ago, Baroness Von Bon Bon said:

Couldn't scum just not kill and leave us in the same exact situation?

This has already been brought up. I don't think a no lynch will work unless we want to just wait and talk next day phase?

[Estelle]

It'll give me three more days to think about this, and it'll also give Briney/Maria a chance to respond to my posts.  My life stops sucking around Tuesday.

Also, if Briney is killed, I think I've made it very clear where my vote is going, and why.

[Estelle]

I didn't sleep very well, and it looks like my Sunday just got really busy.  If I did my math right, I should be back right before phase end.

Another reason why I want to no lynch is because of the nature of a mafia game.  Mafia has to act like town.  It's tough, which is why it always ends up biting me in the ass in the later phases.  Notice how Grim went out?  That's what happens when someone can't keep up that act.  I'm willing to stretch the game one more day phase, to pressure mafia IRL.  It's not a very honest tactic, but if that's what it takes to win, so be it.  The fact that I'm considering this means that the final mafia player's doing a pretty good job.

Regardless, if I can't convince the rest of you to no-lynch, my priorities are Maria >> Briney >> Baroness.  If Baroness is up for lynch, I want someone to explain how her D5 could've come from scum.

[C. C.]

Baroness's D5 push against Grim is entirely irrelevant in the scheme of their interactions. If Grim/Baroness are buddies and Grim was done putting any effort into the game, the 100% correct move was for Baroness to go all out against Grim for D6 towncred. Bussing in 5p/6p to win in 3p/4p is pretty common even when both scum are trying- see Bartozio getting kirsche lynched in Persona 5 mafia. if that's the main reason you're townreading baroness it's not a good one.

For me the more salient interactions are on D3, after Rumor had just gotten lynched and Baroness and Grim still went all out trying to get the other lynched.

I guess I'm okay with no lynching just to get a couple more days to talk it out, even if mafia idle their kill. I'm probably at 40% Baroness 35% Cala 25% Werner right now.

the thing that probably bothers me most with Baroness over the past day or two is how confident he's been? i started d5 pretty sure it was grim/cala but then i've been steadily waffling more and more since then. maybe it's just because cala has been arguing against him mostly, not me, so his position is a bit more straightforward, but idk. he's also a more decisive player in general than me but ugh

unsure why Werner would want to drag it out to a d7 as scum. like they said it gets more difficult to blend in

[C. C.]

i became paranoid for a moment that werner was an arsonist but then they wouldnt have been able to kill wally last night

but just to confirm @mods is it possible to lose following a no lynch today?

[All Might]

11 minutes ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

but just to confirm @mods is it possible to lose following a no lynch today?

Town will not immediately lose following a no lynch.

~8 hours remain.

[Cú Chulainn]

3 hours ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

the thing that probably bothers me most with Baroness over the past day or two is how confident he's been? i started d5 pretty sure it was grim/cala but then i've been steadily waffling more and more since then. maybe it's just because cala has been arguing against him mostly, not me, so his position is a bit more straightforward, but idk. he's also a more decisive player in general than me but ugh

Idk how I've been overly confident?  My thoughts have been pretty focused on cala for most of the game.  And just in general looking over the past few days I don't think cala's posts are better than Captains or Werner's.  Werner not being around the past few days was iffy to me but I was still overall thinking they are town.  I do not see Werner as scum really at all.  If you have a reason to believe Werner as scum then I'd like to see it.

After that my thoughts go towards Captain and Cala.  Cala has been a top scum read for me most of the game and has had bad interactions with both flipped scum.  Her day 1 play fits to scum motive play.  Her day 2 was pretty bad and scummy. Any posts today should be considered WIFOM so I don't really believe you can judge them to the best. @Captain Brineybeard  Also as a counterargument, if I'm considered confident then what do you see Cala marie as?  I have yet to drop a vote whereas Cala marie has voted me and also is confident that it's me.  If anything I would see them as being more confident than me.

As for my thoughts on captain in this situation I have been town reading them most of the game.  And I don't think the interactions he had with rumor/Grim are as bad as Cala's.  I also don't see some of his play coming from a scum perspective that much.  In the past like day or 2 I've been second guessing and being paranoid but I think that is generally natural.  I also don't think I should change all of my reads and what I'm confident in just because I'm being paranoid and I feel that's an easy way to lose.

That should explain my reads and why I've stated I'm at like 90% Cala.  They seem to fit the scum bill much more than either slot and both others are people I've been town reading since Day 1.  If I had to explain my voting priority it would be something like:

Cala  > Captain > Werner

And that's an extremely hard decision for me between Werner/Captain.  Both are town reads since day 1 for me but if for some reason I didn't pick Cala and had to pick between Captain and Werner and I think I'd vote Captain because Werner has better interactions with scum whereas Captain had a lot of waffling in the past few day phases when it came to voting Grim or not.

[C. C.]

that's my point though you've been suspected grim and cala consistently since d3 and haven't really budged much from that. whereas I've gone back and forth between like 6 different people since then.

i guess it's a good thing that you and cala both seem to still be townreading Werner over me because if they're town they'll be more likely to get killed over me other than for wifom purposes, if the mafia kills at all now that you've pointed out that they could idle

[C. C.]

we can't actually vote no lynch; we just have to end the day with no majority.

i think it's kind of dumb that the mafia can infinite no-kill but we can't infinite no lynch but w/e

[Cú Chulainn]

1 minute ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

that's my point though you've been suspected grim and cala consistently since d3 and haven't really budged much from that. whereas I've gone back and forth between like 6 different people since then.

Cala has done the same thing wrt me for the most part over the past few days.  Suspecting me and you as being the most two likely suspects and not really changing their opinion on much even voting me > Grim.  Even after the Grim flip she still has complete and utter confidence that it's me.

So I ask again, why am I labeled as confident in your eyes and not Cala?  As you seem to have ignored my question that I asked.

[C. C.]

cala was talking through her thought process more, especially on d5, and although I ripped her for it for leaving herself open to switching wherever as scum, it could also be that she's town and not really that sure and is trying to consider all options, which is what i'm doing. until just now it feels like you weren't really even considering anything other than grim/cala. your play has seemed significantly more confident than cala to me, even if she voted someone and you didnt

 

[Cú Chulainn]

I've spoken about my thought process though.  As for why I feel they are the two most likely scums and reasons as to why I feel others are town.  I've stated this today as well as on previous days and saying that I haven't talked out my thought process isn't true I feel.

[Estelle]

5 hours ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

i became paranoid for a moment that werner was an arsonist but then they wouldnt have been able to kill wally last night

but just to confirm @mods is it possible to lose following a no lynch today?

Mafia arsonist would be broken as all hell, given what's flipped.  Third party is impossible.

5 hours ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

Baroness's D5 push against Grim is entirely irrelevant in the scheme of their interactions. If Grim/Baroness are buddies and Grim was done putting any effort into the game, the 100% correct move was for Baroness to go all out against Grim for D6 towncred. Bussing in 5p/6p to win in 3p/4p is pretty common even when both scum are trying- see Bartozio getting kirsche lynched in Persona 5 mafia. if that's the main reason you're townreading baroness it's not a good one.

For me the more salient interactions are on D3, after Rumor had just gotten lynched and Baroness and Grim still went all out trying to get the other lynched.

I guess?  I can definitely see Grim lazy-bussing Baroness that way, but I'm having trouble reconciling Baroness' actions otherwise.

I keep thinking about who would shoot who in this scenario.  For example, scum!Baroness would most likely shoot you, since shooting me would result in her having to convince you that Maria's scum.  scum!Maria would need to kill me, since I'm interested in lynching her.  Either of us as scum would probably shoot the other, since that's what would make the most sense.  It's a hell of a WIFOM, and a bunch of pressure on the survivors.  From a straight numbers perspective, it raises the chance of successful lynch from 1/3 to 1/2 for the townies, and that's what I'm banking on.

[C. C.]

desperate times call for desperate measures

[Ochako Uraraka]

I don't understand why dragging this to N7 and going for NK analysis makes sense when scum can just look at what you've posted and go for a WIFOM.

Anyway wrt what you said earlier: Telling me that the Kahl kill was Grim's idea isn't good when I'm the more proactive player; its in my interest to kill you over Kahl even if he's casing Grim than the other way around as scum when/