We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Snike said:

Just to clarify I asked satsuma to do the (Impending) mack case both so I could do this and so I could get distance from thread. This would be easier if we'd be able to quote discord logs but I don't think that's allowed.

@MakazeI'm on like page 9 of activity and like so far I think the only things bugging me are the junko townread and the point where you support one of the JB Bibbons posts while initially townreading Kaoz on thread entrance. You end up concluding JB is non-town but could you elaborate again on why that case made some sense?

actually I want to know that regardless, but I don't think you'd just snap flip on kirsche as scum when at first you were scumreading junko. Obviously the push eclipse takes precedence but the 180?

It reads outside of primary reads you were kind of in the same boat as I was at the end of day. I'm still reading the rest.

Also regarding mack I said this:

And I wouldn't entirely discount shinori bussing yet onto nightmare after the end of day 1 shade he threw onto me.

In particular:

JB sets up Mack/Junko as his top scum reads. He even specifically says, if Junko is scum, then Mack probably is too. Then he jumps on to eclipse.

Please explain the logic behind this if Mack is scum

[Makaze]

In new words please. don't quote an old post

[Snike]

reading your shinori/eclipse associatives; You thought at the time that shinori was soft-bussing his partners. Did the JB flip change your mind @Makaze?

[Snike]

I think JB busses junko as a dead slot and Mack as a weak/scummy slot for towncred. Assuming he doesn't get shot by dayvig, claims janned role and skates a while longer. Mack wasn't exactly a universal townread at that point in time, and if/when junko flipped he would look better in retrospect.

Then eclipse switch towards end is as wagon is building; town lynch > scum lynch any day, even if it reflects bad later IMO.

[Snike]

he being JB in my second line

[Refa]

The way you're pushing Mackc2 feels like a scum push to me.  Feels like you're reaching to scumread him when the much simpler answer (Mackc2 is town) evades you.

Jaybee waffled on Junk hard IIRC.  I don't think he's the type of player who intends to scumread two of his buddies.

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

13 minutes ago, Makaze said:

what do you think of my defense of Mack

The one question that came to mind when I read your defense of Mack again is: why can't the same apply to Kirsche/Kills, who you have a scum read on? You say it is unlikely that Jaybee would set up lynches on two of his partners, yet you scum read Kirsche/Kills, even though Kirsche tunneled Junk for two days and cast shade on Shinori many times. Shinori scum read Kirsche as well. I just feel like there's an inconsistency in the way you think.

If you can clear Mack like that, then Kirsche should be clear too. If we are scum, then why would we move Mack off to Kirsche, just to give Kaoz an item to Strongman him with later? It's hardly coordinated enough to be a scum play.

[Mackc2]

27 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Posting walls that don't even belong to me is hard.

Overall, Snike thinks Mack's responses to our theory read as someone being angry at being called out.

Mack completely flipped on his Town read on Kirsche from yesterday and earlier today, half-based on what we did and only after we came up with the theory, which reeks of OMGUS. Mack also forgot that we switched our vote to Kirsche after Junk's fake claim, as we bought into the fakeclaim somewhat and wanted to see if the role was provable.

The second point does not accurately reflect what was going on Day 1; Mack probably glossed over it.

This sounds rather angry. Mack flip-flopped again on Kirsche, since he defended Kirsche early Day 3, but is now suddenly going back to his N1 read.

This is wrong I have been convinced kirsche is probably scum since early day 3, I made a big stink about shinoris votes suggesting such 

[Percivalé]

I want to believe snike is town and this mack push is just a case of confirmation bias but I also agree it's kinda scummy; the makaze push on LG feels like confirmation bias too but more genuine. I dunno.

[Percivalé]

er, when I say snike i mean the hydra slot together.

[Makaze]

12 minutes ago, Snike said:

reading your shinori/eclipse associatives; You thought at the time that shinori was soft-bussing his partners. Did the JB flip change your mind @Makaze?

Yes, but only because JB being confirmed forced me to seriously read JB's post for eclipse reads, and only then did I see that eclipse didn't make sense as a whole. If it had been just Shinori, I could have continued believing it.

[Refa]

3 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

If you can clear Mack like that, then Kirsche should be clear too. If we are scum, then why would we move Mack off to Kirsche, just to give Kaoz an item to Strongman him with later? It's hardly coordinated enough to be a scum play.

So that Mackc2 wouldn't potentially interfere with the BBM NK.

[Makaze]

4 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

The one question that came to mind when I read your defense of Mack again is: why can't the same apply to Kirsche/Kills, who you have a scum read on? You say it is unlikely that Jaybee would set up lynches on two of his partners, yet you scum read Kirsche/Kills, even though Kirsche tunneled Junk for two days and cast shade on Shinori many times. Shinori scum read Kirsche as well. I just feel like there's an inconsistency in the way you think.

If you can clear Mack like that, then Kirsche should be clear too. If we are scum, then why would we move Mack off to Kirsche, just to give Kaoz an item to Strongman him with later? It's hardly coordinated enough to be a scum play.

For the record, what is your read on Kirsche?

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

So that Mackc2 wouldn't potentially interfere with the BBM NK.

Also this

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

Just now, Makaze said:

For the record, what is your read on Kirsche?

Being 2/2 for scum, he's basically confirmed Town in my eyes (and Snike's, I believe). We strongly believed he was Town already last night, which is why we did the Hijack, but after this morning's flips I personally think he's 100% Town.

[Snike]

5 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

This is wrong I have been convinced kirsche is probably scum since early day 3, I made a big stink about shinoris votes suggesting such 

 

On 4/17/2018 at 9:02 PM, Mackc2 said:

There are too many contradictions in play for scum!Kirsche, their main bus was Junko which I could see them doing to possibly gain towncred but then switching from that bus to bus another scum, I'd consider it a possibility but I don't think its a big enough possibility to follow with a lynch. 
also why Makaze?   

 

On 4/17/2018 at 9:13 PM, Mackc2 said:

Thats why I'm confused, the only evidence to suggest Scum!Kirsche is Shinori's vote and possibly the fact that he landed on both scum (What are the chances he landed on both scum as town? Is it possible he instead did it to gain town cred if he outlived his scum buddies?), I don't think that is enough to push a lynch but at the same the only other explanation I can think of is that Shinori did not want to be caught jumping onto ZKirsche's wagon late because they where going to flip town, the problem there being that their scum buddy was the other option, or that they wanted to set up a base to try and get eclipse lynched tonight. I might read exactly what happened to that Shinori vote of Kirsche to make my decision. 

This doesn't look convinced to me.

Also that action doesn't make sense since I would've just tunneled BBM into the next day if he was left alone. Janning him doesn't fit with that and only serves to make me look worse.

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

2 minutes ago, Refa said:

So that Mackc2 wouldn't potentially interfere with the BBM NK.

But he announced in the thread that he was going to be on Kaoz. If it was WIFOM, it's not just a binary result either; Mack would have to guess the night kill correctly, AND Mafia would have to be scared enough to think Mack would somehow get a 1/18 chance (19 slots left, excluding Mack himself) right. That's way too far-fetched for me.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Being 2/2 for scum, he's basically confirmed Town in my eyes (and Snike's, I believe). We strongly believed he was Town already last night, which is why we did the Hijack, but after this morning's flips I personally think he's 100% Town.

Why don't your reasons for clearing him also work on Mack? (Do you see what I'm doing?)

[Makaze]

To make this 100% clear

Even just purely on tone reads, Mack is 100% clear

How do you feel about Kirsche on tone? Please site at least two examples from his ISO

[Mackc2]

1 minute ago, Snike said:

This doesn't look convinced to me.

Also that action doesn't make sense since I would've just tunneled BBM into the next day if he was left alone. Janning him doesn't fit with that and only serves to make me look worse.

You left out the part where I pointed out that by association of Shinori's vote Kirsche looked sus as, I was simply presenting the options he was going to be my suggested lynch target after JB anyway but the stuff on you is more concrete cause I'm still a bit eh on Kirsche 

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

Just now, Makaze said:

Why don't your reasons for clearing him also work on Mack? (Do you see what I'm doing?)

Reverse engineering my logic onto Mack doesn't work as well as with yours, because I cleared Kirsche based on active things he had done in the game. He actively pushed for a lynch, and possibly a second if Shinori didn't die, that were both on scum. Mack is "cleared" not because he himself has been acting Town, but because two confirmed scum have been treating him as scum.

[Mackc2]

5 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

But he announced in the thread that he was going to be on Kaoz. If it was WIFOM, it's not just a binary result either; Mack would have to guess the night kill correctly, AND Mafia would have to be scared enough to think Mack would somehow get a 1/18 chance (19 slots left, excluding Mack himself) right. That's way too far-fetched for me.

I never said that, I believe it was actually Snike who suggested that be my course of action (funny that you changed me off him despite that) 

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Reverse engineering my logic onto Mack doesn't work as well as with yours, because I cleared Kirsche based on active things he had done in the game. He actively pushed for a lynch, and possibly a second if Shinori didn't die, that were both on scum. Mack is "cleared" not because he himself has been acting Town, but because two confirmed scum have been treating him as scum.

I believe this would make a ton of sense for him to do as Mafia, if he was doing it to townclear one of the two slots. I think that scum's strategy was to intentionally sacrifice of their members, and it didn't matter which.

But let's table that for now. Assume that Mack and Kirsche are BOTH town.

Who would be the other Mafia besides LG (and don't say Weapons, he still doesn't make sense in this scumteam IMO). Please actually consider this world and give some kind of logical reasoning.

[Snike]

You brought it up yes but you doubted it mack in those lines I quoted above.

And I did say that but that was after someone had said martyr Sully when bibbons/kaoz had pubclaimed jailkeeper.

[Makaze]

Actually, it did matter which, because they strongly wanted to avoid Junko lynch

But yeah Im not 100% sold on kirsche, i just think that his EoD posts were genuinely bad
I cannot find another world that makes sense. Mack CANNOT be mafia. im not going to change on this.
and his replacement really,, really is not helping

so please come up with another world where you're not wrong on mack and accept that he is town