Shin Megami Tensei Mafia Day 5

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

I'm not sure how active I can be over the rest of the phase, so my hand is forced.

Day 2: I will tell everyone about you, No Lynch

[Grace]

phase pause

[Grace]

Going about your usual business, a flash of light blinds you temporarily. Afterward, you notice something lying on the ground.

Dear No Lynch,

You are Tatsumi Kanji, a playable character from Persona 4.

When you were a small kid and trying to make a doll, a couple of girls laughed at you and teased you for being girly. Hurt and ashamed by that, you started disliking girls in general, and started to think you were gay. You feared rejection as well. People also thought you're nothing but a delinquent when you were actually defending your house from thugs. When you got thrown into the TV world, Narukami Yu and his friends came to rescue you and help you face your worst weaknesses, allowing you to use your Persona - Take-Mikazuchi.

"It ain't a matter of guys or chicks... I'm just scared shitless of being rejected"

Paranoid Bodyguard: Every Night, you may reply to your role PM with Night X: I will make sure no one kills you, <Player>. You will either ready yourself for a fist fight or summon Demon King to fend off any foes, protecting them from any attempts on their life. However, your intimidating looks scare people so much that they will not perform their actions in fear. For some others, they may be creeped out because you are gay. You may not target yourself with this ability.

In short, you are the Jailkeeper ( or Paranoid Doctor).

You are aligned with the Light: You win when all hostile factions are eliminated.

Huh. You continue on with what you were doing.

edit: no, No Lynch is not dead, before you ask.

Edited August 17, 2014 by Curly Brace

[Shiki Ryougi]

Time to gather some thoughts- sorting through ISOs taking so long though. Ugh.

RAIDO - 2 posts total to go through. While it makes it easy for me to ISO, kinda odd to see so little for post D1 timing.

- Probs on of the easiest/effortless votes on Red Eye.

-Second post:

First of all, I'm quite frankly disgusted by the swift meta usage that this game has resorted to. I expected better from you lot.

In any event, I'm less sold on Red Eye following a more thorough reread. As I have mentioned before, the main concern I had with her was the sheeping she was guilty of. However, her recent content has been better than the earlier work that was submitted, so I am less sold on a Red Eye lynch (that being said, even if I did still find her scummy on reread, I would have moved off of her for the time being due to the wagon dying).

The Wife has piqued my interest for further inquiry with her (his?) recent posts; specifically, the likelihood of lining up lynches then throwing his vote onto Stick with a simple vanilla claim from Death. I will admit that many of her reads (aside from the one on myself, clearly) are very plausible, though the suggestion to vig several players confounds me. How are you even so sure that there is, in fact, a vigilante in this game, bastard or no?

Speaking of Stick, I'm more or less null on him. Since apparently we are using outside meta, his posts feel like... well, posts that he normally makes in games. I'm not too sure why exactly we're using meta against him, but meta can easily make him not scum because his posts honestly read the same to me in each game.

Several others need to post more, and I'm currently not of the proper disposition to read Kelpie's wall posts, so I have yet to establish reads on them.

I'll reread the rest of the game and make another post soon.

- "I'm disgusted with the use of meta", and then proceeds to use Meta. Okay.

- Red Eye read (despite not moving his vote) = extremely flimsy at best. In addition, the notion of "moving off someone's wagon due to the wagon dying" as opposed to, "I feel that this person no longer warrants said vote from me because I find X or Y scummier" sounds strange to me, because it sounds like he's voting for the popular wagons (regardless of if he believes they're scummy or not to him).

- The Wife read feels weak at best- he mentions issues wrt mentioning the lynches, moving off of Stick, etc. but then proceeds to ask questions about the plausibility of a vig or not being the game? (The points he brings up of inquiry to the other posts = ??? What does mentioning them say/do anything for us, and what does he (RAIDO) think about them? I don't get any sort of read as a result from his blurbs.)

Stickmanramp

- Most of D1 posts/walls such as here and here, brought very little to the table, so it seems more of a waste of breath/typing and needless reading for us to do.

- Pretty shallow read/take on Death, and does nothing despite noting that he seems 'wolfy'.

- Don't like the overall vibe/tone of this post.

- Feel weird. Just because Death flipped scum yesterday doesn't mean that multiple scum wagons didn't happen. (And honestly, you did little to nothing to remedy the cases/points against you, nor did you present anything in defense and/or offer the others reasons not to vote for you. So there should be no real surprise in how quickly the wagon may have gathered speed onto you.)

- Not really giving us much thought/reason of those who even voted for you. Also, you seem to funnel the focus down upon only those who voted for you last day phase (based on the votals at the end of D1), as opposed to overall interactions/posts/etc. since the winding down of D1. In addition, "I can't comprehend No Lynch" = you give him a free pass-to-GO and choose to ignore him? Seems way too easy and borderline careless with that.

Samael - Also pretty much in the same boat as RAIDO for having only 2 posts in D1. The content is real. ;/

- Basically spends the entire post ripping apart Red Eye's actions, posting, etc. (which seem as though he doesn't approve of his gameplay as a whole), but does nothing as a result. No vote, nothing. Why mention someone like this and do nothing with it?

- Seems a bit waffly/fluffy in his read/thoughts on Death, along with a Stickmanramp vote/case of him being the strongest scum read.

- Attests that nothing has changed in his case on Stickmanramp, but then decides he's town... for what reason exactly? Why wouldn't scum vote scum for towncred, especially when Death's lynch seemed imminent? I feel this clearing of Stickmanramp is far too easy and flimsy reasoning used at best.

- Why would scum teammates not case against other scum teammates, especially if the target of said case is most liable to being lynched that day phase?

- "We need to approach this carefully" *proceeds to toss down a vote anyways with little thought* Best logic.

- Hold up.

~ "Well, assuming Scum Goon had a town scan on someone on Night 0" => All Scum Goon said in his post was: "I wasn't going to say this at first in fear of lowering activity levels, but I have a guilty on Kelpie and you all should follow it." He never said anything about a scan, about literally seeing me somewhere, etc. (No implications whatsoever of what sort of "guilty" he supposedly had on me, nor any sort of clue as to the means of acquiring said information.) I find your assumptions pretty odd.

~ (as a whole) "Well, assuming Scum Goon had a town scan on someone on Night 0, it was practically guaranteed that one of the two people he scanned were legitimately scum, even if his scan results are the opposite of what they are. If you see it that way, lynching Kelpie would've been a 50/50% at nailing another scum and I personally like those odds. If it actually turned out that Kelpie was town, the player Scum Goon had a town read on would be confirmed mafia. " Is anyone else getting some red flags in reading this? The lack of possibility (this assumption/case is based purely on the existence of a paranoid cop, as opposed to godfathers, framers, millers (though town would've already claimed that by now), etc.) and the train of logic ["just keep lynching to see/verify the reads/filps!"] sounds really flimsy and reckless to me.

No Lynch

- This wall post confuses me. So much notions of "Scum/not scum", yet I'm not feeling any strong reads/votes coming out as a result.

- Complains about lack of effort from stick, breezes over Death, and somewhat better notion of Red Eye.

- Don't like the "Should I vote for Death?" comment here. You shouldn't need outside verification/ask for permission or acceptance from others to vote someone. That just feels/sounds bad in itself.

Twitter_Famous

- This post is so scattered.

- Prior to this post, there is very little to almost no cases/thoughts wrt the other players aside from Red Eye.

- RAIDO vote is and obvious and easy one to make; I'm not sensing a whole lot of legit effort from this post as a whole.

- His "null reads" = has rarely (if ever) mentioned thoughts/reads on them prior to this post.

- Shallowest/barest of reads on Wife/Death.

- Mentions me? (But says nothing about anything I'd actually said/posted. K)

~ None of his other posts seem to stick out with any half-decent content. Nor does he seem to post much about any sort of case/train of thoughts on the majority of the player base in this game.

Minerva X, Fangirl, and The Wife currently seem fine to me, and will do their reads last if I have the time. Will do the others in a bit, but just lost half of my post due to a misclick, so kinda irked at that---

**Cut by Manix/Samael**

...Well then. o_O Seems No Lynch is cleared hands down.

From what I have above: RAIDO, Stickmanramp, and Samael have the worst content/interactions, but TF is also pinging me hard. For now, I'll put this here: ##Vote: RAIDO, and the vote may be subjected to change with an upcoming post (on the rest of the players here).

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

##Unvote

I hate to continue being a lazy ass, but I need to wake up early in the morning. I'll be back as soon as I can.

[Bluedoom]

Votals

Kelpie(2): Knuckles on Steroids, stickmanramp

Samael(1): Lucifer's No.1 Fangirl

No Lynch(1): Deathbound

RAIDO(2): Kenji Harima, Kelpie

Scum Goon(1): The Wife

Voteless: Twitter_Famous, No Lynch, Scum Goon, Minerva X, RAIDO, Samael

You have 22 hours, 16 minutes till phase end. It takes 7 to hammer.

Edited August 17, 2014 by Bluedoom

[Estelle]

I'm not sure how active I can be over the rest of the phase, so my hand is forced.

Day 2: I will tell everyone about you, No Lynch

If you weren't so open about your tiny penis, I'd hang you for this.

Now Deathbound, kindly get your vote off of me. I said I'd be out until tomorrow to our host, but surprise surprise.

I acted both nights. Anyone who feels like claiming hooked should claim hooked before I out my targets then.

[Ochako Uraraka]

well i guess no lynch and samael are guaranteed village

scum goon why did you choose kelpie as your faketarget?

[Marisa Kirisame]

##Unvote

No Lynch, who did you target N1? Also you should look to use your role as a Hooker rather than a Doctor tonight, if you didn't do so last night.

Unfortunately I'm entertaining GUESTS so I don't have time to reread (pedit this was written like 2.5 hours ago before I had to go entertain these guests in the middle of my post), so I'll look at Samael, Raido, and Kenji tomorrow. First thought is that Samael might be a weak 1x scum info role cuz Kelpie brought up a really good point about S. Why would Samael expect there to be a Cop in addition to his role if he was town? He's basically a daycop/oracle hybrid of some kind, and if that was the case I'd expect town's main investigative role to be some kind of Tracker or Watcher, not a Cop.

@Stickman- how exactly is Samael guaranteed town...?

[Marisa Kirisame]

well i guess no lynch and samael are guaranteed village

scum goon why did you choose kelpie as your faketarget?

kelpie was his main scumread so who else would he pick?

[Bluedoom]

Votals are almsot the same but.

You have 11 hours 48 minutes left. If you don't reach hammer, then a no lynch occurs.

Reminder that if this happens twice the game will end in universal loss.

[All Might]

...Priorities are hard. I missed basically all of D2. And considering the lack of activity I feel pretty guilty. >.<

[spoiler=wagon analysis stuff, post became massive, again]

As I'm trying to reassess the situation from the lynch, I begrudgingly have a lot of conflict about my current stickman read: on one hand, I agree with Deathbound that Death's interactions with stickman was awkwardly friendly, on the other hand I think the fact he also read The Wife positively (whom I don't currently view as scum), combined with his play after the emotional outburst of readlisting then disappearance makes me believe that he might've intended to townbuddy at the end of the day.

Note that as awkward as Death's positive read on stickman's "scumhunting" was, he also distanced himself from the rest of the red eye wagon by claiming stickmanramp was the only one to look for scum intent. Considering the wagon's growth, he pretty much meant Twitter_Famous and RAIDO, and you could say Samael's post as well, even if he didn't vote. So I think it's likely that there's scum among them.

Out of the group of three, Samael turns his read on Red Eye around considerably from post 122 to post 211. There's some legitimacy in the jester justification with the first post in mind (even though it should really not be that hard to proofread rules before you post... but whatever), but the whole read-turn is left with a handwavy-sense as Samael claims that he now agrees with Red Eyes's assertions on Death while their Death read itself is disconnect from that notion, and despite finishing with "it's clearly anti-town behavior", Samael does handwave it prior by saying it could well be just emotion.

PEDIT: I see Samael did a thing. It seems like a very town-sided role, so I'm honestly stumped. Also cleared up No Lynch... ok. o.o

Twitter_Famous' interactions are fairly more complicated since they kinda disappeared, and it is hard to discern how Death's read on them is any different from the other nulls but something noteworthy is how they constantly use confusion to withhold any judgement on the slot and then feng shui their entire read as "I see efforts of scumhunting" (which contrasts with the stickman read to top off, how did I not notice this before).

Twitter_Famous however has only interacted by saying Death's recent content was better by page 8, but otherwise ignored the slot.

RAIDO also kinda disappeared (who am I to say this, but still), valid point is that despite criticizing meta they use it right after. Another awkward thing is that they say they're less sold on the Red Eye case yet their The Wife case seems rushed and tacked on (Issues are lining up lynches, suggesting to vig inactives and assuming that a vig exists???), not to mention the awkward meta-clearing of stickman. This is literally all content to work with when reading the slot, shamefully. :/

Out of the three, right now I'm ok with lynching RAIDO (though seeing him vig'd would be cool). Twitter_Famous will likely be modkilled if things keep up, and Samael did a thing while I was reading. O.o

Now without further ado let me get to day 2 more thoroughly.

Glossing over I don't really understand the logic of stickman town = knuckles town, could you explain, The Wife?

PEDIT: I see, that case makes sense when assuming stickman is town.

The Wife, you said that stickman's wagon made him likely town because of the way it popped up. What exactly did you mean by that? I recall you berating the reads for being bad, but I don't really remember you finding scum intent in them (or didn't call out as such). Also, considering Samael's little hat trick, what do you think of the wagon now?

Deathbound, out of Death's town/nullreads, who do you think he was trying to townbuddy and who do you think wasn't the case? I find this a bit curious because of how you say Fangirl is probably town from interactions, btw.

Finding new Lucyfan's post pretty cool.

Concerning this from Scum Goon:

- The bastard nature of the game has to do with me not putting past the game to give the mafia/itp some sort of lynch resistance (though admittedly, it'd still be a lame thing to give scum, and I suppose it's workable for itp?). Though honestly I still find it more likely to be a fakeclaim.

- Oh no, I didn't mean that he shouldn't be demotivated because his role was something lynchproof! My belief is that the way he crumbed instead of straight up claiming is unnatural for unmotivated townie, where I believe he'd claim his role in a more straight manner. Him withhelding information from the thread makes me think there's falsehood in the demotivation excuse. Wording is hard.

Samael's stickman townread makes no sense since stickman was the other wagon themselves, why would they not lynch Death?

While I read, there's something that kelpie points out that I agree a lot: Samael makes a lot of assumptions that seem out of left field since the Scum Goon claim. The instant assumption of an incorrect cop seems outlandish (though I guess it makes some sense with Samael's proven role?) and it makes no sense how he creates that speculation *after* Scum Goon outright admits that they have no actual investigative abilities.

It's probably a good idea to keep questioning the Samael slot, Deathbound, but why do you think such a role would be given to scum, like, ever? I'm honestly confused myself.

So yeah, I want to keep looking at stuff but I realize now might be a good time to pop in because it's been superdead in the thread and I already have a massive amount of words typed.

Basically:

- Would agree that RAIDO is a proper lynch today from wagon analysis and their few yet conflicting D1 content.

- Twitter_Famous would be but they're getting modkilled/subbed maybe.

- Still not really fond of stickman tbh.

- Not sure if I can accept Samael as clear because of their behavior.

For now:

##Vote: RAIDO

[All Might]

Unfortunately I'm entertaining GUESTS so I don't have time to reread (pedit this was written like 2.5 hours ago before I had to go entertain these guests in the middle of my post), so I'll look at Samael, Raido, and Kenji tomorrow. First thought is that Samael might be a weak 1x scum info role cuz Kelpie brought up a really good point about S. Why would Samael expect there to be a Cop in addition to his role if he was town? He's basically a daycop/oracle hybrid of some kind, and if that was the case I'd expect town's main investigative role to be some kind of Tracker or Watcher, not a Cop.

Reading is tech but why weak info role specifically? How does the weak modifier apply to your conclusion?

[Rain Nijika]

##Vote: Samael

I considered clearing Samael based off of his role but then I remembered that Manix is one of the hosts. In addition, instant oracle that doesn't need to die seems like an incredibly powerful role and there was a universal backup in the game as well which could potentially repeat that results in a ridiculous amount of confirms too quickly in my opinion. Considering that this is the only point in his favor is his role, I'm still prepared to go through with this lynch based on what was highlighted earlier.

Minerva: lynchproof mafia members have appeared before (FFTA is one example) so the role in question isn't indicative of alignment. Whilst I can see your point now with how he claimed, I'm inclined to disagree, especially since Red Eye crumbed his role in a similar fashion instead of explicitly claiming. I would also like to know how scummy you think Samael is at the moment, rather than saying how he is simply "not clear".

[Marisa Kirisame]

I didn't mean the weak modifier; I meant weak in terms of power because it clears somebody as town. And while the role seems like it would more likely be town than scum, I don't feel that Samael automatically assuming a Town Cop exists makes sense if he's town. Why would there be a Cop + a 1x public fullcop?

I'm not really sure about the rest of Death's town/nullreads, Fangirl just stands out to me because Death's townread on him wasn't "leaning" like he did for a few others but "solid" and for basically no reason at all. So he specifically wanted to list her as town. And looking at the context of how she was being perceived at that time; buddying up to a townie on your wagon seems more likely than scumbuddies. The other people he lists as solidly town are Wife, Scum Goon and Kelpie, but all of the reads of them have much more basis, which makes me think that he wasn't trying to do anything specifically with them as much as just give reads.

Out of the null reads, Death completely neglects to say anything about Samael at all which is pretty bad actually. The Raido read could be scum distancing because he only points out scummy stuff that Raido does but still initially lists Raido as null and overall says he needs more posts to come to a decision. Not really sure about the Knuckles and TF reads tbh. I guess if I had to I'd say TF is more likely to be scum out of the two of them based on Death's reads on them alone, because the TF read seems to lean towards Randa indicating him as town later on, while the Knuckles read seems more like Death leaving him for a mislynch later, but that's just gut there mostly.

Looking at Raido, not much to say about the first post that hasn't already been said. In his second post, I feel like someone already said this, but I don't like at all that he yells at people for using meta and then... uses meta. He also talks about being less sold on a Red Eye vote, but still leaves his vote there even though it's the day of phase end and Red Eye is a major wagon. And then he never comes back either in that phase or this one. I definitely see the case here but I don't want to lynch someone who hasn't been here for D2 at all and has only two D1 posts. Would support a vig if he doesn't get a sub I guess.

and cut by Scum Goon with a really good point about how Samael's role could interact with the UB.

I was going to look at Kenji but NO TIME atm. Much preferring Samael to Raido.

##Vote: Samael

[Ochako Uraraka]

##unvote

##vote Samael

still think he's clear on role but no time and otherwise we're not getting a lynch

[Aizen]

Cool a case on me by DB, well actually, you don't have to make one, I will make it for you,

-inactivity

-suddenly bringing up a stick case and then suddenly not mentioning it anymore

-saying stick threw insults at red eye

-not mentioning many people

-not answering questions

well, that is pretty much all I can think of, feel free to add some more

as for the answers,

-yeah, I am inactive

-I still dislike the attitude of stick and I don't like how he hasn't done anything, nor tried to do so and I still think he is scummy

-stick's post tried to discredit red's posts more than anything else and did it by insulting red more than pointing out how he was actually scummy iirc. While red's posts were actually throwing insults, stick's implied insults.

-My other reads involve Raido distancing himself from red's wagon, but only by words, not by vote, so, scum reading him.

Samael's replies are weird and that role is very powerful for town, but not worth lynching at the moment because it could be that he was our only info role with no other info roles and I think that would be a balanced set up in that case and it could also be that Samael is not very good at balancing set ups. The other thing that would go Samael's way for being more likely town is that he picked No Lynch, his biggest scum read, leaving himself readless, cause I don't remember seeing another read for him besides stick. Depending on how he proceeds, it will decide on how scummy he is and therefore not worth lynching today or unless an useful info role flips.

Note: not asking info roles to claim

One thing I noticed about Kelpie's posts is that Kelpie had been more interested in pointing out jokes in people's post than actually reading what people said and I don't like that

-as for not answering questions, I am sure I found some questions on me, but I can't find them anymore. Can you guys either link me to them or ask them again?

how much time do we have till phase ends?

[Estelle]

I'm here, and queer.

N0: Deathbound

N1: (Not saying yet, but I did act).

I'm seriously giving you chances to claim hooked

[Estelle]

Can someone explain why we're banking on classic "Host Meta" to find Samuel as primary scum here? If Samuel was mafia, why would he use that role at all? There was no impending reason for him to hit me with that dayflip because I was already looking like a valid lynch candidate. He could've just sat on his role as mafia and saved it for another time, like when he might actually be pressured.

[Estelle]

Also while I'm present and accounted for

I'd sooner place my vote on RAIDO than a guy who unnecessarily cleared someone who he knew would be Light-aligned if he was mafia so

##Vote RAIDO

Votals

Samael (4): Lucifer's #1 Fangirl, Scum Goon, Deathbound, stickmanramp

RAIDO (4): Kenji Harima, Kelpie, Minerva X, No Lynch

Scum Goon (1): The Wife

Kelpie (1): Knuckles on Steroids

Voteless: Twitter_Famous, RAIDO, Samael

You have 7 hours, 45 minutes till phase end. It takes 7 to hammer.

Time remaining edited to be accurate.

[Rain Nijika]

I brought up host meta because in most cases I would be doubtful that Samael's ability came from scum, and your lynch was hardly assured. If he hit a powerful role like yours, he could have simply nightkilled the role and hoped that the credit from using such a role would make others assume that he is town (like stickman has done), although this does seem less likely in hindsight?

##Unvote

##Vote: Raido

I'm fine with this as an alternative, I suppose.

[Estelle]

I suppose I could see this as a strange attempt for a scum Public Day-Cop or something, which just makes me hope that some form of protection aside from me exists

Nobody Hammers until I out my N1 target. (s)he has not posted since I was revealed and demanded hook outs

[Rain Nijika]

I would like to remind you that vanillas and other passive roles could exist and that you could be outing a power role by doing this. I feel as though it would be better to just out who you targeted now rather than waiting for them to appear (or be modkilled in some cases...)

[Aizen]

I would like to remind you that vanillas and other passive roles could exist and that you could be outing a power role by doing this. I feel as though it would be better to just out who you targeted now rather than waiting for them to appear (or be modkilled in some cases...)

my thoughts exactly on this

[Estelle]

Oh. There is that I guess.