Don Draper
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Posts posted by Don Draper
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LOL. I wasn't telling him how much time he should spend on video games. I was merely challenging the claim that he doesn't have time to restart chapters, which is bullshit.
Yes, I'm a horrible, heinous person who has no empathy for others simply because I think some people are bad players at a video game, and I think people have more than enough time to restart chapters. In fact, I'm on the level of Hitler and Stalin. You guys are pathetically sensitive, lol.
"I wasn't telling him how much time he should spend on video games. I was merely challenging the claim that he doesn't have more time to spend on video games!"
Please answer two questions for me, so I know what kind of person I'm dealing with here:
1) How old are you
2) Have you ever worked a day in your life
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That's just false, unless you have a job that's like 80 hours a week or something, or you take some really hard classes at school.
How ignorant can you possibly be? As lame as save-states are, what exactly gives you the right to judge how much time people should/shouldn't allocate to video games?
You sound like a self-centered child with a sheltered worldview and complete lack of empathy for others.
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Oh, man! Firstly, he didn't predict Greninja.
He had leaked "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y". I would absolutely say the chances of one making this exact prediction prior to Greninja's reveal and having that prediction be correct would be around 50% You can argue whether it's 70% or whatever, but it really doesn't change anything.
Secondly man, I'd like to see your estimated percentage for only five-seven, since in the bet thread alone here at Serenesforest, many people must be predicting geniuses.Show me the posts, I'd be happy to calculate the estimated chances. Note that these people cannot have a single deconfirmed character on their list in order to hold them to the same standard as the Gematsu leaker. I'll tell you right now though, unless Wii Fit Trainer was on any of these lists, the percentages will not be even remotely close.
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Of course it's less than 100%.
Uh, I don't know what you're trying to swing to say my argument is weakened. I'm taking the Gematsu leak as a whole. What would be the point of trying to "strengthen" it by not considering the whole thing?
Then I will include Palutena/Greninja, and consider Palutena and Little Mac's chances as 85% as opposed to 50%. I'm now getting an estimated 0.002258% chance of the Gematsu leaker correctly predicting Little Mac, Palutena, Mii Fighter, Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Greninja, PacMan and Mega Man through sheer dumb luck. Of course this isn't scientific by any means, but it does hopefully illustrate how improbable this scenario is.
There could easily have been plenty more submitted as leaks that were proven false and, therefore, never spoken about
Right, but the point I was trying to make was that the amount of predicted rosters that were submitted as leaks is significantly lower than the total amount of predicted rosters period. It's another variable to account for.
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This is not accurate at all. Guesses like Little Mac and Palutena are hardly coin flips; many people expected them, chances were high. Guesses like "Animal Crossing guy" (the supposed Villager guess) and "X/Y Pokemon" are vague and cover a lot of ground, decreasing the validity of them. Megaman, Pac-Man, and Mii are on the luckier side, but not at all out of bounds; Megaman was an extremely popular fan choice, Namco is developing the game and Pac-Man is a very iconic character, and Miis have been invading a lot of Nintendo titles. For the record, I myself guessed Little Mac, Palutena, and Mii, and Pac-Man seemed a likely choice when I considered the evidence (which Gematsu had nothing to do with).
Without Wii Fit Trainer, the "leak" wouldn't even be worth a second glance. That's an outlier and the only reason I don't just scoff at the list completely.
In my original argument, I was specially referring to the first six newcomers that were leaked. I was actually being generous by not factoring in the second leak. Regardless of how "vague" or "expected" those two additional newcomers are (Palutena, Greninja), their chances of being correctly predicted are less than 100%. By bringing these newcomers into the fold, you've weakened your argument, not strengthened it.
"Animal Crossing guy" is broad, but I would still argue that the chances of any Animal Crossing newcomer being randomly predicted are equal to or less than 50%. Sakurai had specifically stated his reasoning for why an Animal Crossing character wasn't in Brawl, and most had assumed his reasoning would hold true for the next Smash game.
I should also mention the statistical improbability of the Gematsu leaker's "lucky guesses" being submitted as a leak. This roster "prediction" didn't happen in a vacuum; it was emailed to Gematsu claiming to be leaked information. Our of all the roster predictions that were made prior to Smash Wii U's reveal, how many actually claimed to be leaks?
In the end, we're arguing semantics. It's already statistically improbable that Wii Fit Trainer alone was a lucky guess, and I don't understand how somebody could argue that the chances of the roster being leaked are any lower than this. Especially considering another high-profile Nintendo release (Pokemon X/Y) was leaked in a similar fashion. Brawl's roster was also leaked before release, albeit, only a month before release as opposed to years before
By the way, I'm sure you know this already, but a Rythym Heaven enemy has been confirmed to appear in Smash Run. It's only a matter of time until Chorus Men are confirmed:
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A good guesser will always just be a good guesser, as much as I'm still a little worried that he's right, I don't believe he's the definitive end-all list of newcomers, or that all of his characters will necessarily be in game. I won't deny it, guessing Wii fit trainer, Little Mac, and the villager were impressive, but everyone else is sort of obvious, once you look past the little bit of spectacular in his list, the rest is just copy-paste bleh on most everyone's lists. Palutena? I don't know who didn't expect her. A gen six pokemon? Not only is it vague, it seems like a safe enough bet. Pacman? In a kid's game developed by Namco? Never. I vaguely recall hearing he said something about the Miis, which is a pretty good guess; I think most of us figured we wouldn't get them because they hadn't made it into Brawl. What I feel breaks this for me is that he couldn't guess Rosalina, a character with a decent chance of being chosen. I think because he didn't predict Rosalina, everything else that he's been right about was just lucky guessing. It's impressive for what he's gotten right so far, but to me, getting certain things wrong sort of jeopardizes the validity of it all.
This is bias and opinions on the side here, but I also don't think Shulk is going to make the cut. Because Xenoblade only had a limited release, there is no way that including him will boost sales of the game like Roy was meant to for Fire Emblem in the Melee days. He might introduce people to the new game, whose title escapes me at the moment, but that feels like a long shot to me. It just feels like it's too late and he holds no extreme significance to Nintendo the same way Game and Watch and ROB do.
I don't mean to sound like I'm hating on people because they believe, that wasn't my intention, it's fine if people trust his predictions or supposed "leaks". I just don't.
I don't think you fully grasp the statistical improbability of the Gematsu leaker "randomly" guessing newcomers.
Wii Fit Trainer I don't believe was on a single character list, prediction list, etc. If she was, please link it to me. One doesn't just "accidentally" guess Wii Fit Trainer.
Then there's the fact that he went six for six guessing newcomers for the first leak. Imagine flipping six coins, and correctly calling the outcome of all of them. Now imagine one of those coins is replaced by a 1000 sided die to represent Wii Fit Trainer. The chances of predicting the number on that die PLUS the outcome of five consecutive coin flips is astronomically low. Well, specifically, there's a 0.003125% chance of it happening....
Trying to argue that the leak was pure luck just completely ignores basic probability. Especially when there's a much more logical explanation (that being, that there is in fact a person who leaked details of the game).
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they're worse off than last gen in actual battling with fairy types
also are there really only 8 required battles from the first gym to the second gym, that seems....off
Yeah, Gym 2 looks like one of the most difficult from a speedrun perspective, just because your Pokemon are so underleveled. Apart from Team Flare, most of the Trainer battles in general can be skipped.
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Is there anything you regret doing / not doing in High School?
in General
Posted · Edited by Don Draper
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