I follow these contets pretty closely and see some confusion here so I'll break the FE characters' paths down for everyone:
Tharja won her Round 1 match, yeah, but her opponents were likely weak as hell, and being seriously threatened made her look pretty bad. She was never going to beat Aeris and Shepard in Round 2, of course, but her performance here probably isn't encouraging for Chrom and Lucina winning their Round 1 matches, as they have better competition.
Lucina likely gets second in Round 1, beating Caim and losing to Dracula. We only saw Dracula previously in that dumb Rivalry Rumble contest but the Alucard/Dracula rivalry did okay there. ALSO HE'S NAMED DRACULA AND IS CLEARLY THAT DRACULA. And Symphony of the Night is the stronger game and Castlevania is probably still the stronger series. Lucina would likely need to be announced for the new Smash game to stand a chance. If she pulls if off, she still loses in Round 2 to Sonic and extremely likely Barret as well.
Marth/Phoenix in Round 1 could be pretty close. Even Nightmare may end up not far behind them but I doubt he wins. Personally I'm rooting for Phoenix here. Whoever wins dies to Vincent in Round 2 though. It may sound strange if you're not familiar with these contests, but Vincent is consistently one of the top 15 strength characters in these things. It is true but entirely irrelevant that nobody cares about Dirge of Cerebus. And even if Vincent wasn't there it's not like Marth wins the Nintendo vs. Nintendo battle against Mewtwo.
Chrom probably loses to The Boss in Round 1 and might even lose to Heavy. Heavy certainly has better rallying potential if it's close. However, an announcement for the new Smash game would again be a game-changer here. Though if he wins, Chrom gets last place to Sub-Zero and Bowser in Round 2 regardless.
Ike probably beats Protoman and Robotnik in Round 1. Robotnik hasn't been very good in these contests in the few glimpses we've gotten of him. Protoman might give a respectable performance but shouldn't threaten to win. Round 2 is tougher. Epona is untested but should be pretty decent. GlaDOS used to be weak but that was before Portal was given away for free and Portal 2 came out, plus she's looking at a Nintendo-fanbase split. Ike could win but I think he's the underdog here. If he pulls it off, he definitely loses to Solid Snake in Round 3. He loses to Zack too if Zack gets there but if someone else makes it into the match because of a fanbase split he could get second.
Lyndis is a newcomer but she's not beating Rikku in Round 1. She could easily get last place if ? Block is able to attract the joke vote crowd. If she was strong she probably wouldn't have taken a decade after FE7 to get into a contest. Even if Lyn is unexpectedly decent she still almost certainly loses this match. Like, I'm not sure Ike would win this, much less someone not playable in Smash.