Perkilator Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 We all know that "Everyone is Here" -- the main selling point of Ultimate bringing back every veteran in Smash history -- isn't going to happen again. So naturally, what with 89 playable characters in one game, figuring out who's coming back in the next Smash game and who isn't, whether in the base game or as DLC, is widely debatable. So, I made this thread for discussing which veterans are likely to return or not. For my part, I made a tier list to sort out which veterans I personally think will or won't return, with justifications for some of my choices. Pretty much guaranteed Spoiler Mario Donkey Kong Link Samus Yoshi Kirby Fox (Smash seniority) Pikachu Luigi Ness (Smash seniority) Captain Falcon (Smash seniority, plus F-ZERO 99 is a thing) Peach Bowser Zelda Falco (Smash seniority) Marth Lucina (due to Awakening saving FE + being easier to develop as a clone) Ganondorf Mr. Game & Watch (literally one of Nintendo's oldest characters + Smash seniority) Meta Knight Pit Dark Pit (as long as Sakurai's working on the next game + being easier to develop as a clone) Wario Ike (still a very much popular FE character) Diddy Kong Sonic King Dedede Olimar Lucario (still a very much popular Pokémon) R.O.B. (Smash seniority) Villager Mega Man Greninja (still a very much popular Pokémon) Palutena (as long as Sakurai's working on the next game) PAC-MAN Shulk Ryu (& Ken by extension) Bayonetta Inkling Isabelle Likely to return Spoiler Daisy (easier to develop by taking moves from Peach but also has the benefit of a major role in a mainline Mario game) Ice Climbers (only reason they were cut before was due to 3DS limitations) Mewtwo (still a very much popular Pokémon, albeit not one that's entirely immune to cuts, though he was supposed to return in Brawl so it's not like Sakurai doesn't want to bring him back if possible) Bowser Jr. (a more prominent role in Bowser's Fury, less so in Mario Wonder) Duck Hunt Cloud Ridley Simon King K. Rool Incineroar (relatively popular in the Pokémon VGC, not to mention the first Smash character with a proper wrestling-based moveset) Banjo & Kazooie Terry Steve (purely because of how popular Minecraft is, though balancing is another matter) Pyra & Mythra Sora (Ballot winner and Disney were okay with his inclusion) Unsure Spoiler Dark Samus Jigglypuff (she was nearly cut before but still managed to make it in by being easier to develop) Sheik (Smash seniority but hasn't been a major part of the Zelda franchise for a while) Roy (and by extension Chrom; they're still featured to this day in games like Heroes and Engage but they may still get out-prioritized due to being Marth clones) Zero Suit Samus Snake Pokémon Trainer (at the very least, TPC would want to push for Charizard but whether he'll be solo again or part of the team again is unclear) Lucas Toon Link Wolf Wii Fit Trainer Rosalina & Luma Little Mac Richter (still relevant thanks to Castlevania Nocturne but may still be out-prioritized) Min MIn Kazuya Not likely to return Spoiler Corrin (might get out-prioritized by whatever else is new in Fire Emblem) Piranha Plant Joker Hero Sephiroth Definitely not coming back Spoiler Dr. Mario Pichu Young Link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanty Pete's 1st Mate Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Here's what I'm thinking. Maybe I missed one or two. I grouped them by some shared attribute. Falling in a lower group doesn't always mean lower chances than one in a higher group - i.e. I could think a character in the (>20%) group has a 36% chance, while one in the (>30%) group has a 32% chance. So it's a rough sort. The Original Twelve - These ones are pretty much guaranteed at this point (>90% each), having appeared in every game since the start. They are: Spoiler Mario Link Fox Samus Donkey Kong Yoshi Pikachu Kirby Luigi Ness Jigglypuff Captain Falcon The Regulars - Fighters introduced in Melee who have been around ever since. I see them as nearly a sure-thing (all >80% each), if not as certain as the Original Twelve. Spoiler Peach Bowser Zelda Sheikh Ganondorf Marth Falco Mr. Game & Watch Modern Icons - Fighters who first showed up in Brawl or later, but have gained fame as symbols of present-day major Nintendo franchises. I think they're all (>70%). Spoiler Inkling Villager Olimar Robin Shulk Pit Wario Likely Third-Partiers - Fighters who are third-party, but have enough notoriety, or Nintendo-specific history, to give them all good (>60%) chances. Spoiler Pac-Man Sonic Mega Man Bayonetta Ryu Hero Steve/Alex Coin Flips - First-party characters with some Smash history - or recent-joiners who were long-requested - but in a tenuous spot. I'm thinking (>50%) apiece. Spoiler Meta Knight King Dedede Ice Climbers Mewtwo Roy Toon Link Lucario R.O.B Diddy Kong Zero Suit Samus Pokemon Trainer Ike Rosalina & Luma Wii Fit Trainer Mii Fighters Little Mac Greninja Palutena King K. Rool Ridley Clones with a Chance - They are (or were) clones, but for various reasons, I think they could make it. Let's say (>40%) each. Spoiler Lucina Dr. Mario Daisy Dark Pit Ken Flash in the Pan - Once (or twice) Fighters who aren't likely to become anything recurring. I think they're around (>30%) each. Spoiler Wolf Corrin Incineroar Piranha Plant Min-Min Pyra & Mythra Byleth Duck Hunt Duo Bowser Jr. Isabelle Less-Likely Third Partiers - I don't think most of these are coming back. Let's give them (>20%) each. Spoiler Simon Cloud Sephiroth Sora Kazuya Joker Banjo & Kazooie Terry Snake Simon Clones with No Chance - Some clones, I think, are very likely gone. I'm saying (>10%) each. Spoiler Pichu Dark Samus Richter Chrom Young Link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Emblem Fan Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I feel like the majority of cuts for future Smash Bros. games are going to come from third-party characters. Nintendo has to secure the rights for every individual one every single Smash game, and not just for the character but also for the music, stages, etc. I feel like they won't be able to again with some of them for one reason or another, or just not bother with others. That's not to say that every first-party Nintendo character is safe, of course. Anyway. Completely safe: Mario Luigi Peach Bowser Yoshi Wario Donkey Kong Diddy Kong Link Zelda Ganondorf Samus Kirby King Dedede Meta Knight Fox Pikachu Charizard Lucario Ness Captain Falcon Marth Ike Robin Pit Olimar Villager Shulk Inkling Probably safe: Daisy Rosalina Bowser Jr. King K. Rool Sheik Ridley Zero Suit Samus Dark Samus Falco Jigglypuff Pokemon Trainer/Squirtle/Ivysaur Greninja Ice Climbers Lucina Byleth Palutena Dark Pit Isabelle Little Mac Pyra/Mythra Mr. Game & Watch R.O.B Sonic Mega Man Pac-Man Ryu Bayonetta Simon 50/50: Dr. Mario Toon Link Wolf Mewtwo Incineroar Lucas Roy Corrin Chrom Duck Hunt Min Min Wii Fit Trainer Miis Cloud Ken Richter Banjo-Kazooie Steve Less likely: Piranha Plant Snake Hero Sephiroth Kazuya Sora Unlikely: Young Link Pichu Joker Terry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightchao42 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I made an image: A few characters could shuffle around and Ryu could go up a tier, but mostly this reflects my opinions. I didn't want to include third party characters from the same company in the same tier unless I think they could go either way, like Snake/Simon and Cloud/Hero. I also put Dr. Mario and the echoes in their own category; basically I think the echoes will come back if their parent character returns, and Dr. Mario in particular is up to the developers' whims. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Holy Elf Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 On 3/31/2024 at 8:18 AM, Perkilator said: We all know that "Everyone is Here" -- the main selling point of Ultimate bringing back every veteran in Smash history -- isn't going to happen again Out of curiosity, why do we know this? Has Sakurai or other major developers actually stated this? Because my kneejerk is the opposite; Nintendo knows "everyone is here" was a huge success. We've never had a Smash roster with significant cuts before and if I were a video game producer I'd be terrified at the potential backlash of such a move, so by default I'd assume almost everyone comes back except any third-party characters for whom permissions get withdrawn and maybe a small handful of less-popular characters particularly clones (which mostly explains the few cuts from Brawl to Smash 4, for instance). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Emblem Fan Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, Dark Holy Elf said: so by default I'd assume almost everyone comes back except any third-party characters for whom permissions get withdrawn and maybe a small handful of less-popular characters particularly clones (which mostly explains the few cuts from Brawl to Smash 4, for instance). Yeah, I mean, I think the only game Dr. Mario missed was Brawl, right? And Roy, Mewtwo, and Lucas were brought back in Smash 4's DLC specifically because of the fan demand. And the one and only reason the Ice Climbers were cut from Smash 4 was specifically because of the 3DS limitations, and that was the same reason Pokemon Trainer was reduced to just Charizard. If not for that, Ice Climbers and Squirtle/Ivysaur wouldn't have gone anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanty Pete's 1st Mate Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 19 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said: Out of curiosity, why do we know this? Has Sakurai or other major developers actually stated this? Because my kneejerk is the opposite; Nintendo knows "everyone is here" was a huge success. We've never had a Smash roster with significant cuts before and if I were a video game producer I'd be terrified at the potential backlash of such a move, so by default I'd assume almost everyone comes back except any third-party characters for whom permissions get withdrawn and maybe a small handful of less-popular characters particularly clones (which mostly explains the few cuts from Brawl to Smash 4, for instance). I think the anxiety over the next game being "Smash Ultimate, But More" is... people might not buy it. "Why would I buy this new one, when it doesn't do much better or different from the last one, which is still perfectly playable?" Something along those lines. In this paradigm, Smash 6 needs to do something fundamentally different, and never-before-seen in the series, to justify its existence. If putting resources into this new playstyle means fewer characters, then so be it. Of course, another way of looking at it is "Smash will do as well as whichever console its on". Smash Ultimate wasn't a success because "everyone is here", but rather, because it's on the Switch - a successful console. The next game could expand the cast, or cut it, amd it wouldn't make much difference. It would succeed - or fail - alongside the Switch's successor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zapp Branniglenn Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Assuming there's no genre-twisting changes to the battle system of the next Smash Bros they can probably port over whatever they want from Ultimate barring any insurmountable licensing issues. One thing I could see them doing is scaling back the roster at launch, but adding back veterans and stages one or two at a time for a steady influx of (hopefully free) updates to keep the game lively across the following two years rather than being dead for the months in between DLC characters. By holding veterans back they can take their time balancing them against a developing meta rather than suffer having to do everyone at once in time for Launch - which no doubt took time and resources away from new stuff in Ultimate. But if we are discussing licensing issues, I think a lot of folks don't realize that the Pokemon are relatively endangered. Quite a few still wrongly assume Nintendo owns Pokemon but the Pokemon company needs to be negotiated with same as anyone else. This is corroborated when we look at the history of characters that were playable in one game but not in the next: Dr Mario Pichu Roy Young Link Mewtwo Snake Squirtle Ivysaur Lucas Wolf 40% of cut characters were pokemon. 40% are ones Nintendo claims full ownership of. 1 is Snake, the last is Lucas who is complicated but fairly close to the Pokemon situation, legally speaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord_Brand Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 (edited) On 3/31/2024 at 7:13 PM, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said: Here's what I'm thinking. Maybe I missed one or two. I grouped them by some shared attribute. Falling in a lower group doesn't always mean lower chances than one in a higher group - i.e. I could think a character in the (>20%) group has a 36% chance, while one in the (>30%) group has a 32% chance. So it's a rough sort. The thought of Banjo-Kazooie not returning hurts, as they were my favorite addition among SSBU's DLC fighters. On 4/2/2024 at 2:36 PM, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said: I think the anxiety over the next game being "Smash Ultimate, But More" is... people might not buy it. "Why would I buy this new one, when it doesn't do much better or different from the last one, which is still perfectly playable?" Something along those lines. In this paradigm, Smash 6 needs to do something fundamentally different, and never-before-seen in the series, to justify its existence. If putting resources into this new playstyle means fewer characters, then so be it. I would rather that they add new characters to replace the ones being cut, so that the game at least offers a markedly different experience than its predecessors. This said, I can probably offer my own tiers, though I use just four. Almost Guaranteed >75% Spoiler These characters have been staples since their introduction, are highly popular, and iconic to SSB as well as their own series. There would be serious backlash if any of these were removed. Mario Donkey Kong Link Samus Aran Kirby Yoshi Fox McCloud Pikachu Luigi Ness Captain Falcon Jigglypuff Peach Bowser Zelda Sheik Ganondorf Falco Marth Diddy Kong King Dedede Meta Knight Charizard Lucario Olimar Villager King K. Rool Ridley Incineroar Isabelle Inkling Highly Likely >50% Spoiler These characters are less essential, but still quite popular and would be missed if they were removed. A few were cut before, and later brought back at the fans' request. Popular third party fighters are included in this tier, as the need to negotiate licensing means they're never guaranteed. First-party fighters added to SSBU via DLC are likely to return as part of the base roster. Mewtwo Roy Pit Zero Suit Samus Wario Wolf Pokemon Trainer Lucas Ike Snake Sonic Rosalina & Luma Robin Shulk Palutena Greninja Mega Man Pac-Man Ryu Cloud Bayonetta Daisy Dark Samus Chrom Simon Richter Joker Hero Banjo & Kazooie Terry Bogard Min Min Sephiroth Pyra & Mythra Kazuya Sora Less Likely <50% Spoiler Some of these characters were cut at least once prior to SSBU and weren't highly requested to return, some were added as jokes and only gained popularity ironically, and others just weren't highly requested to begin with. These characters could safely be cut. Ice Climbers Mr. Game & Watch R.O.B. Bowser Jr. Wii Fit Trainer Little Mac Lucina Dark Pit Duck Hunt Mii Fighters Ken Piranha Plant Minecraft Steve Unlikely <25% Spoiler Two of these characters were cut once already, and aside from a vocal minority, hardly anyone was requesting their return. The other has garnered such a mediocre response from the fanbase that they could be cut and hardly anyone would complain. Dr. Mario Young Link Byleth So, if I were to guess what the base roster might look like sans newcomers, this is what I would expect. Spoiler Mario Luigi Peach Daisy Bowser Rosalina & Luma Donkey Kong Diddy Kong King K. Rool Link Zelda Sheik Ganondorf Samus Aran Dark Samus Zero Suit Samus Ridley Kirby King Dedede Meta Knight Yoshi Fox Falco Wolf Pikachu Jigglypuff Mewtwo Pokemon Trainer Lucario Greninja Incineroar Ness Lucas Captain Falcon Marth Roy Ike Robin Chrom Wario Pit Palutena Olimar Villager Isabelle Shulk Inkling Min Min Pyra & Mythra Third-parties could be base roster, but I could just as easily see them being DLCs for fans who want them back while leaving them out of the base roster for fans who are less concerned with their return. Snake Sonic Mega Man Pac-Man Ryu Cloud Bayonetta Simon Richter Joker Hero Banjo & Kazooie Terry Bogard Sephiroth Kazuya Sora Edited April 5 by Lord_Brand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanty Pete's 1st Mate Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 10 hours ago, Zapp Branniglenn said: This is corroborated when we look at the history of characters that were playable in one game but not in the next: Dr Mario Pichu Roy Young Link Mewtwo Snake Squirtle Ivysaur Lucas Wolf You forgot Ice Climbers, who weren't included in Smash 4. But then again, Lucas probably shouldn't be here, since he was in the DLC for Smash 4. So it balances out. 17 minutes ago, Lord_Brand said: I would rather that they add new characters to replace the ones being cut, so that the game at least offers a markedly different experience than its predecessors. This might be my "hot take", but... I really hate the character select screen in Ultimate. It takes, like, a full 30 seconds to find the character I'm looking for. There are just so many of them. And it's not like the individual tiles for each character are particularly large. It just feels overwhelming. I'm not opposed to the game having new characters, of course. But I really don't have much appetite for Smash 6 having an even larger roster than the current one. Make it a game where I, a casual player, can spend some time with each fighter, and get to know them. 21 minutes ago, Lord_Brand said: The thought of Banjo-Kazooie not returning hurts, as they were my favorite addition among SSBU's DLC fighters. Oh, I have nothing against how they play. But to me, they were always a "nostalgia" pick of long-requested characters. If we get a new Banjo-Kazooie title on the Switch (or its successor), though, then they could definitely justify their continuing inclusion. 25 minutes ago, Lord_Brand said: Two of these characters were cut once already, and aside from a vocal minority, hardly anyone was requesting their return. The other has garnered such a mediocre response from the fanbase that they could be cut and hardly anyone would complain. Dr. Mario Young Link Byleth You didn't list them here, but fair to assume that Pichu is among this cadre? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Emblem Fan Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 (edited) 23 hours ago, Zapp Branniglenn said: Assuming there's no genre-twisting changes to the battle system of the next Smash Bros they can probably port over whatever they want from Ultimate barring any insurmountable licensing issues. One thing I could see them doing is scaling back the roster at launch, but adding back veterans and stages one or two at a time for a steady influx of (hopefully free) updates to keep the game lively across the following two years rather than being dead for the months in between DLC characters. By holding veterans back they can take their time balancing them against a developing meta rather than suffer having to do everyone at once in time for Launch - which no doubt took time and resources away from new stuff in Ultimate. But if we are discussing licensing issues, I think a lot of folks don't realize that the Pokemon are relatively endangered. Quite a few still wrongly assume Nintendo owns Pokemon but the Pokemon company needs to be negotiated with same as anyone else. This is corroborated when we look at the history of characters that were playable in one game but not in the next: Dr Mario Pichu Roy Young Link Mewtwo Snake Squirtle Ivysaur Lucas Wolf 40% of cut characters were pokemon. 40% are ones Nintendo claims full ownership of. 1 is Snake, the last is Lucas who is complicated but fairly close to the Pokemon situation, legally speaking. The thing about this, though, is I'm not sure you can really fully count Squirtle and Ivysaur here. I mean, you can, I guess, but from Sakurai's own words, they would not have been cut if the 3DS hardware could handle the Pokemon Trainer (same with the Ice Climbers). Squirtle and Ivysaur (Pokemon Trainer, by extension) are always going to be a lot safer than people think, in my opinion. 13 hours ago, Lord_Brand said: The thought of Banjo-Kazooie not returning hurts, as they were my favorite addition among SSBU's DLC fighters. I would rather that they add new characters to replace the ones being cut, so that the game at least offers a markedly different experience than its predecessors. This said, I can probably offer my own tiers, though I use just four. Almost Guaranteed >75% Reveal hidden contents These characters have been staples since their introduction, are highly popular, and iconic to SSB as well as their own series. There would be serious backlash if any of these were removed. Mario Donkey Kong Link Samus Aran Kirby Yoshi Fox McCloud Pikachu Luigi Ness Captain Falcon Jigglypuff Peach Bowser Zelda Sheik Ganondorf Falco Marth Diddy Kong King Dedede Meta Knight Charizard Lucario Olimar Villager King K. Rool Ridley Incineroar Isabelle Inkling Highly Likely >50% Reveal hidden contents These characters are less essential, but still quite popular and would be missed if they were removed. A few were cut before, and later brought back at the fans' request. Popular third party fighters are included in this tier, as the need to negotiate licensing means they're never guaranteed. First-party fighters added to SSBU via DLC are likely to return as part of the base roster. Mewtwo Roy Pit Zero Suit Samus Wario Wolf Pokemon Trainer Lucas Ike Snake Sonic Rosalina & Luma Robin Shulk Palutena Greninja Mega Man Pac-Man Ryu Cloud Bayonetta Daisy Dark Samus Chrom Simon Richter Joker Hero Banjo & Kazooie Terry Bogard Min Min Sephiroth Pyra & Mythra Kazuya Sora Less Likely <50% Reveal hidden contents Some of these characters were cut at least once prior to SSBU and weren't highly requested to return, some were added as jokes and only gained popularity ironically, and others just weren't highly requested to begin with. These characters could safely be cut. Ice Climbers Mr. Game & Watch R.O.B. Bowser Jr. Wii Fit Trainer Little Mac Lucina Dark Pit Duck Hunt Mii Fighters Ken Piranha Plant Minecraft Steve Unlikely <25% Reveal hidden contents Two of these characters were cut once already, and aside from a vocal minority, hardly anyone was requesting their return. The other has garnered such a mediocre response from the fanbase that they could be cut and hardly anyone would complain. Dr. Mario Young Link Byleth So, if I were to guess what the base roster might look like sans newcomers, this is what I would expect. Reveal hidden contents Mario Luigi Peach Daisy Bowser Rosalina & Luma Donkey Kong Diddy Kong King K. Rool Link Zelda Sheik Ganondorf Samus Aran Dark Samus Zero Suit Samus Ridley Kirby King Dedede Meta Knight Yoshi Fox Falco Wolf Pikachu Jigglypuff Mewtwo Pokemon Trainer Lucario Greninja Incineroar Ness Lucas Captain Falcon Marth Roy Ike Robin Chrom Wario Pit Palutena Olimar Villager Isabelle Shulk Inkling Min Min Pyra & Mythra Third-parties could be base roster, but I could just as easily see them being DLCs for fans who want them back while leaving them out of the base roster for fans who are less concerned with their return. Snake Sonic Mega Man Pac-Man Ryu Cloud Bayonetta Simon Richter Joker Hero Banjo & Kazooie Terry Bogard Sephiroth Kazuya Sora This is the list that perplexes me the most, if I'm being honest. You have Incineroar as an "Almost Guaranteed >75%", but then you have Wario as only a "Highly Likely>50%". That feels...wrong. Heck, if I'm being honest, I think Pit and Shulk are also safer than Incineroar. For Pokemon specifically, Incineroar is probably the second-or-third-least iconic and popular Pokemon of all the ones that have been on Smash's roster, only Pichu and Jigglypuff my be less so, but Jigglypuff also has the seniority of "Original 12 Smash Bros. veteran." Greninja was so popular they made that Greninja-Ash-combo thing, Pikachu needs no explaining, and I don't think it could be argued that the original starters (Pokemon Trainer), Mewtwo, and Lucario are all far more popular/iconic than Incineroar is. If that (popularity/icon status) was one of the main parts of your criteria, I don't think this placement is correct. Byleth doesn't make sense to me, either. The reception to their reveal was certainly lukewarm, but over time Byleth has absolutely become much, much more widely accepted and liked specifically because of how different they are from Marth. Same for Robin, honestly. Having looked across Twitter, Reddit, and various other websites and forums since Ultimate's final Sora DLC, and Byleth is almost always listed as one of the "should stay" FE characters on the roster. Just about every fan roster I've seen over the last two years have the FE portion of Smash include Marth, Robin, and Byleth. I'm not gonna say Byleth is absolutely safe, because they aren't, but they absolutely have at the very leats a 50/50 shot. Edited April 6 by Fire Emblem Fan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zapp Branniglenn Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 43 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said: The thing about this, though, is I'm not sure you can really fully count Squirtle and Ivysaur here. I mean, you can, I guess, but from Sakurai's own words, they would not have been cut if the 3DS hardware could handle the Pokemon Trainer (same with the Ice Climbers). Squirtle and Ivysaur (Pokemon Trainer, by extension) are always going to be a lot safer than people think, in my opinion. I don't read it that way. If they wanted Squirtle and Ivysaur as separate fighters, the 3DS version would not have stopped them. You're correct that Pokemon Trainer was specifically unfeasible for the 3DS hardware, but Charizard is living proof that they were willing to rework his parts into separate entities. And Sakurai also cites the Zelda/Sheik and Samus/ZSS situations as part of that accommodation process. Sheik surprises me in retrospect. Outdated Zelda character, gets two whole special moves as part of the rework, is definitely not as recognizeable to a casual audience as Squirtle/Ivysaur. But Nintendo owns Sheik, not Squirtle. I think it's a crucial factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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