Kinata Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Step right up everyone and test your luck. Some people claim to be unlucky because of constantly being screwed by the RNG. So I designed a test to see who really is unlucky and who's not. I randomly picked 25 Heads/Tails, and then flipped a yo-yo 25 times. I was correct 11 times, so I have a score 44%. To participate, just guess the order of the 25 yo-yo flips and post. When enough people guess, I will post the answers and everyone's scores. Until then, have fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Either side all 25 times. H1, T2, H3, T4, T5, H6, H7, T8, H9, T10, T11, T12, H13, H14, T15, T16, H17, H18, T19, H20, T21, T22, T23, H24, H25. The chances of guessing them all is 1/2^25...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fei Mao Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 (edited) 1.Heads, 2.Tails, 3.Tails, 4.Heads, 5.Heads, 6.Tails, 7.Heads, 8.Heads, 9.Heads, 10.Tails, 11.Heads, 12.Tails, 13.Head, 14.Head, 15.Tail, 16.Tail, 17.Head, 18.Head, 19.Tail, 20.Tail, 21.Tail, 22.Tail, 23.Head, 24.Head, 25.Head Edited January 30, 2010 by Generic Officer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 1/2^x=Probablity you guess all of the ones before throw x and x correctly. x =) # of flips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ansem Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Head Tail Tail Tail Head Tail Head Head Head Head Tail Tail Head Tail Head Tail Head Tail Tail Tail Head Tail Head Head Tail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxas Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Flipping a yo-yo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinata Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 I had no money on hand (I'm broke ), but I do collect yo-yos. I just graded BK, and sadly, he did not get them all correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 He wouldn't conduct this test if the yo-yo couldn't work in this experiment. Good luck, you got a 1/33554432 chance of success. This experiment isn't totally random as there are many things that could cause the result to be in favor of one side. Using an RN and we guess whether it is >50, or <50, and all RNs of 50 are ignored. More accurate test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wist Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Which country's currency did you use / will you be using? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 He used a yo-yo..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinata Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Since no one knows how this test is biased, it's perfectly accurate. If the RN worked like FE's, for perfect accuracy, it would be between less than 50 and greater or equal than 50. 50 does not have to be ignored since there is an even number of RN's. And Generic Officer has been graded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ansem Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Any results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Since no one knows how this test is biased, it's perfectly accurate. If the RN worked like FE's, for perfect accuracy, it would be between less than 50 and greater or equal than 50. 50 does not have to be ignored since there is an even number of RN's. And Generic Officer has been graded. It's perfectly accurate because no one knows it's biased?..... So the people are right if nobody know how they are wrong? Right, I forgot to factor in the 0 RN. So yes, <50 and >/=50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinata Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 The results will not be revealed yet because that would suggest the answers. Though I just graded you Vivek. And I meant that since no one knows which is slightly more likely, heads or tails, they can't use that fact to their advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Still. It isn't unbiased. You don't have the even 50% of guessing if we decide to go micro-scaled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ansem Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Oh ok i can wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 I'm going to say: h,t,t,h,h,h,t,t,h,t t,h,t,t,h,h,t,h,t,t h,h,h,t,t,h,t,h,t,t t,t,h,t,h,t,h,t,t,h h,t,h,t,t,h,t,h,h,t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinata Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Even if it was so biased that one had a 90% chance of happening, as long as no one knows the bias and everyone makes random guesses, the probability should stay even. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 I'm going to say: h,t,t,h,h,h,t,t,h,t t,h,t,t,h,h,t,h,t,t h,h,h,t,t,h,t,h,t,t t,t,h,t,h,t,h,t,t,h h,t,h,t,t,h,t,h,h,t That's more than 25 guesses...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 That's more than 25 guesses...... I thought it was 50. Whatever. Just take the first 25 then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Even if it was so biased that one had a 90% chance of happening, as long as no one knows the bias and everyone makes random guesses, the probability should stay even. Not really. The chances of guessing correctly out of a single guess changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinata Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Think about it. I flip a coin, and I tell you that one side has a 90% chance of being picked, but I don't tell you which. You will still have a 50% chance of guessing the right one. I graded RP, and I will only say that so far, Vivek has had the most extreme result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK-201 Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Think about it. I flip a coin, and I tell you that one side has a 90% chance of being picked, but I don't tell you which. You will still have a 50% chance of guessing the right one. I graded RP, and I will only say that so far, Vivek has had the most extreme result. Good point. It just is a little biased due to the fact people are going for a mixture. It isn't perfectly accurate in determining your luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinata Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Wow, were having a mathematical argument... about the accuracy of a luck test. Wow. Anyway, I'm still not convinced that a mixture will make a difference. I'll actually do some calculations tomorrow to confirm or disprove my belief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wist Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 He used a yo-yo..... I am unfamiliar with this currency. As such, my guesses may be improperly skewed, but we shall see how things happen.H, T, T, T, H, H, T, T, T, H, T, T, H, H, H, T, T, T, T, T, T, H, H, T, H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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