Kieran and his Gamble Skill

[Anacybele]

So, since I've been playing PoR lately, two different files actually (one on easy for kicks and one normal for the RD transfer), and I always use Kieran. He freaking rules. <3

Kieran comes with the skill Gamble when you recruit him, and that's one of the reasons I love him. But people have told me to take it off of him. I'm wondering why. He deals critical hits so god damn much for me that it's not even funny. Give him a Killer Axe and Kieran's chance of a crit is close to 40%. That's just crazy.

For people who think Gamble is bad, you're just unlucky. It's truly an awesome skill. The lowered accuracy is hardly ever a problem for me. Besides, what makes up for it is that the chances of a critical hit are doubled. Also, imagine if you gave Kieran swords after promoting him and gave him a Killing Edge, which has a high crit rate. That would be nuts! Say...I have yet to try that. :P

Still, do you have Kieran Gamble or not? :P

As I said, I always do.

[Junkhead]

Nobody said the skill itself is bad, it depends on the character, it is best place on swordmasters for having high crit. and decent hit with it...but even then they suffer from missing.

And personal experience means nothing, Kieran is bad with it because he uses axes and his critical won't be so good, it's Hot before Critical, that means you cab¡t critical if you can't hit.

[Tables]

You're just getting lucky with hitting by the sound of it. If your accuracy is above 100%, then it will often increase your average damage, but also make your attacks less reliable. If your accuracy is below 100%, then it will ALWAYS decrease your average damage and, ironcially, DECREASE your chance of landing a critical. Let me demonstrate:

Firstly, familiarise yourself with True Hit

Now, say you have a hit rate of 90% and a crit rate of 35% (Killer axe). That's really a hit rate of 98.1%, so:

Critical: 34.335%

Hit: 64.765%

Miss: 0.019%

Average damage: 1.6677 times normal damage

Use Gamble: Your hit rate drops to 40% and your crit rate rises to 70%. Your true hit rate is 32.4%

Critical: 22.68%

Hit: 9.72%

Miss: 67.6%

Average damage: 0.7776 times normal damage

That's pretty crazy - by using gamble, you've made your chance of hitting less than a third, and made the damage you'd expect to deal over twice as small.

That's just one example, and in general, unless your hit is very high (130% ish plus) and your crit is reasonably high too (30-50%), Gamble is worse than it is useful.

[Shadow Mir]

So, since I've been playing PoR lately, two different files actually (one on easy for kicks and one normal for the RD transfer), and I always use Kieran. He freaking rules. <3

Kieran comes with the skill Gamble when you recruit him, and that's one of the reasons I love him. But people have told me to take it off of him. I'm wondering why. He deals critical hits so god damn much for me that it's not even funny. Give him a Killer Axe and Kieran's chance of a crit is close to 40%. That's just crazy.

For people who think Gamble is bad, you're just unlucky. It's truly an awesome skill. The lowered accuracy is hardly ever a problem for me. Besides, what makes up for it is that the chances of a critical hit are doubled. Also, imagine if you gave Kieran swords after promoting him and gave him a Killing Edge, which has a high crit rate. That would be nuts! Say...I have yet to try that. :P

Still, do you have Kieran Gamble or not? :P

As I said, I always do.

Gamble... awesome? Sorry, but you're wrong. Trading off hit in favor of crit = Bad idea. With Gamble, your odds of success are 50-50 AT BEST. What's so awesome about that? Also, personal experience means nothing.

[Anacybele]

Like I said, you people are just unlucky. Kieran criticals like crazy and even with Gamble, he doesn't miss a lot.

And sorry, but it's my OPINION that Gamble is awesome.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Eternal Bond

[Shadow Mir]

Like I said, you people are just unlucky. Kieran criticals like crazy and even with Gamble, he doesn't miss a lot.

And sorry, but it's my OPINION that Gamble is awesome.

It's not so much that we're unlucky as it is you're just lucky. Also, personal experience means nothing.

[Anacybele]

Why do people keep telling me "personal experience means nothing"?

Because how else do we figure these things out? By playing the game. >_>

[Tables]

Yeah, you're the one getting lucky. The numbers don't lie.

In fact, I've done some more calculations.

If you have a critical rate of 50% then you need 118% hit for Gamble to be better than a normal attack.

If you have a critical rate of 40% then you need 122% hit for Gamble to be better (not a big difference there, admittedly)

If you have a critical rate of 35% then you need 124% hit for Gamble to be better (not a big difference there, admittedly)

30% crit needs 126% hit

25% crit needs 130% hit

20% crit needs 134% hit

15% crit needs 140% hit

10% crit needs 148% hit (but 146-7% is basically equal)

5% crit needs 160% hit (lol)

1% crit needs 180% hit (lol even more)

Basically you need someone with a hit of around 120-130%, plus a Killer weapon, for Gamble to be worthwhile. Possible? Yes. Likely for Kieran to have? Well, he gets to 130% hit at 20/20 with a Killer axe... supports might just about cancel out terrain and some enemy avoid... he's basically NEVER getting to a point where Gamble is useful, unless you decide to take swords.

[BEST TRYNDAMERE PLAYER]

Honestly, I think Gamble works best on a swordmaster, why?

Innate crit and high accuracy.

[Anacybele]

Basically you need someone with a hit of around 120-130%, plus a Killer weapon, for Gamble to be worthwhile. Possible? Yes. Likely for Kieran to have? Well, he gets to 130% hit at 20/20 with a Killer axe... supports might just about cancel out terrain and some enemy avoid... he's basically NEVER getting to a point where Gamble is useful, unless you decide to take swords.

And I always give Kieran swords. ;)

[Shadow Mir]

Why do people keep telling me "personal experience means nothing"?

Because how else do we figure these things out? By playing the game. >_>

Because most of everything that happens in Fire Emblem games is random. >_>

[Tables]

Even so, that still basically makes it worthwhile IF you have supports, no weapon triangle disadvantage and, oh yeah, are at max level, and even then (say you're at 135% hit, 38% crit - possibly even generous stats) you're only looking at an average of 12% more damage than normal. Compare that to say, Adept, which deals twice as much damage about 25% of the time, so is effectively 25% more damage on average, and you don't have to take any risks to do it.

Gamble in short is exactly that. And just like in a casino, there's a house edge for the game if you play.

[Venusaur]

The bad thing about giving Kieran Swords is that Iron Swords suck, and that he'd just be better off with a bow or even a lance. Bows give him a reliable 2-range and Lances give him the ability to hit Sword-users, which is much better than being able to take out other axe users with a Sword. Even if you do give him Swords, Gamble will not work well unless you give him a Killing Edge, which takes many strikes with an inferior weapon (for the weapon rank) just to get a 50/50 shot at a kill. Killer Axes are just too inaccurate for Gamble. It'd be much better to remove Gamble and give him Sol so he can take more hits.

[Anacybele]

That's why you up Kieran's weapon level. >_>

It's not that hard. Besides, I already give Oscar bows and Geoffrey and Astrid also have bows. There's no point in having four bow knights. Also, Kieran can already have 2 range with axes if he's got a short axe or a hand axe.

[Shadow Mir]

That's why you up Kieran's weapon level. >_>

It's not that hard. Besides, I already give Oscar bows and Geoffrey and Astrid also have bows. There's no point in having four bow knights. Also, Kieran can already have 2 range with axes if he's got a short axe or a hand axe.

I'd say ultimateluigi has a point. Even if Kieran has hand axes and short axes for range, hand axes' accuracy sucks, and short axes have only 15 uses.

[Tables]

Getting him that high is, especially since you'll start getting about 1 exp per battle before long (unless you're playing on easy mode, in which case I suggest you try that on Hard and tell me it's a good idea). And it's generally agreed that your Paladins want Axes > Lances > Swords > Bows in that order. If you're using Oscar, Titania and Kieran (which isn't uncommon, they're three of the best characters) then Kieran could end up with swords, that's possible.

However, what you're doing is called favouritism. In short you're saying 'If I give Kieran swords, tons of experience, a Killing edge and use Gamble, he ends up killing stuff often!' It's not a fair comparison. If Kieran is at a normal level (say, about 20/1 in chapter 17) then he's not getting anywhere near that level of accuracy.

And one more thing. Why give him Killing Edges and Gamble, when he can take a Silver axe and do the same thing, but with guaranteed results?

[Venusaur]

I'd say ultimateluigi has a point. Even if Kieran has hand axes and short axes for range, hand axes' accuracy sucks, and short axes have only 15 uses.

Not to mention Swordmasters laugh at Hand Axes and Short Axes alike. Even without bows, lances can take down what Kieran fears most before promotion: sword-users.

[NinjaMonkey]

I don't bother with Gamble due to the huge drop in accuracy...

[Kinata]

I like to give gamble to Zihark and forge for him a slim sword with max hit, att, and crit. With that he has like a 70% chance of criticalling and an accuracy of anywhere from 65% and to 85%. It's pretty crazy, and it only costs like 10,000 gold.

[Anacybele]

Firstly, I play on both easy and normal. Not hard, because I fear it would be too difficult.

And since when was I doing anything out of favoritism? I usually have Kieran use Killer Axes because of the high crit rate, not because I think the weapon is cool or anything.

[Shadow Mir]

I don't bother with Gamble due to the huge drop in accuracy...

And neither do I. In fact, I sell the scroll after the chapter I get it.

[Junkhead]

Why do people keep telling me "personal experience means nothing"?

Because how else do we figure these things out? By playing the game. >_>

It's because you can't go around posting your personal experience, because that is just out of luck, it doesn't mean it will apply to everyone.

[shroudening]

-Edward, Leonardo, Sothe, Sigrun, Sanaki, Zihark, Mia, Micaiah, and Mist have both good skill and luck (aka Accuracy).

-Edward, Leonardo, Zihark, and Mia get a +20 (+15 for Leonardo) crit bonus.

-Edward/Mia + Light Affinity Support Bonus + Killing Edge + 20 crit bonus + Gamble = Win (Although they probably wouldn't need gamble because they are both awesome without it)

Don't kill me.

Kieran really fails with gamble because he lacks the accuracy and crit bonuses that really make it awesome.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Isaac55

[Junkhead]

This is FE9, the disscussion ain't too relevant.

[Scarlet]

I'd say ultimateluigi has a point. Even if Kieran has hand axes and short axes for range, hand axes' accuracy sucks, and short axes have only 15 uses.

Forges exist. You can just forge up a hand axe to liek 12 Mt and 80 Hit for not even that much of a cost (and who cares about gold in FE9 anyway?), and suddenly, bows no longer look so nice.

But back to Gamble: it just sucks on Kieran. Not only because axes aren't exactly the most accurate weapons in existance, but especially because his crit rate doesn't even exist for the most part unless he's using a crit forge (which is balls expensive) or a killer axe, and the latter has, like, you know, very limited availability in this game.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Raymond