Testing hidden treasure rate

[VincentASM]

Inspired by this topic, are there any volunteers willing to run a few tests to provide a rough (good, if there's enough people/tests) estimate of the hidden treasure finding rate?

I think the easiest way is to use Battle Saves (NA/EU) to repeatedly try and obtain the same hidden treasure (locations here). If anyone has the ability to get a hacked ISO running or can use cheat codes, that might be helpful as well (to fix stats).

Currently, the most likely formula (in my view) is:

Skill + Thief Bonus + Biorhythm bonus [%]

(From Valhalla, a Japanese fan site)

Thief Bonus: 60 if user is a Thief, Rogue or Whisper (not sure on the bonus, but the three classes should be correct)

Biorhythm bonus: +20 if arrow is pointing at highest, +10 if pointing at high, -10 if pointing at low and -20 if pointing at lowest (I believe this note is mentioned in a guidebook, but there's also evidence in the game data)

A lot of people also seem to believe Luck is the predominant factor, instead of Skill.

Some tests that might be worth trying:

Volke, Ike (promoted) or Trueblade with 40 Skill and best Biorhythm = 60% success rate

Whisper with 38 Skill and neutral Biorhythm = 98% success rate

If you want to do some tests, please record your character's Level, stats (esp. Skill and Luck) and Biorhythm status, and of course the number of tries/successes.

That reminds me, I should try and test FE9's desert item rate (since every game sans FE9/10 has a known success rate). I can at least try that even if I can't play FE10 : o

Edited April 28, 2010 by VincentASM

[Silith]

Just 3.

Base Sothe trying to find Beastfoe.

20 skill and 15 luck.

Good biorythm -> Fail (implied 90%)

Good Biorythm -> Fail (implied 90%)

Normal Biorythm -> Success. (implied 80%)

I feel like I got screwed over though.

(3 data is hardly worth posting (I just wanna rant my failures)

[Integrity]

Kitty's coming up close on the desert. I'll do some testing with her save once she gets there if necessary.

Might be this weekend.

EDIT: The above statement was dumbtarded. Treasure isn't just in the desert in RD. >>

Edited April 30, 2010 by Integrity

[Magna]

Leanne at 2-2 for Discipline.

Skill 4, Luck 50, Bio Neutral

Tries: 200

Success rate: 3.5%

I guess this helps dismissing that Luck is involved.

I'm trying at Best bio now, should have 24% chance of finding it but perhaps I'm being overrun by my own luck and after 100 tries I have 32% sucess rate which is to high (funny coincidence, Leanne is level 32, too).

[Integrity]

Some short tests until my Wii had to be hard-reset from loading too many times, or something:

1-6-1 Coin, will test with an item later since I suspect that the item drop rate is lower.

Sothe: SKL 21 LCK 16, Normal biorhythm, 40 tries, 8 N 32 Y = 80%, with an interesting 16 Y streak towards the end.

Tauroneo: SKL 22 LCK 18, Normal biorhythm, 30 tries, 24 N 6 Y = 20%

Zihark: SKL 22 LCK 11, Normal biorhythm, 15 tries, 12 N 3 Y = 20%

If I had to make a preliminary gander as it I'd say SKL is the primary factor, with a very hefty (+50-60%?) Thief bonus.

I didn't do any tests with Biorhythm one way or the other.

More will come later.

EDIT: Actually, plugging it into the formula, my tiny test seems to indicate that it's spot on with no regard for Biorhythm or my suspicion that Coins are easier to find.

Edited April 30, 2010 by Integrity

[VincentASM]

Thanks ^^

That test with Leanne was a great idea as well.

Implied rate - Experimental success rate (Number of tries) [skill, Luck, Biorhythm, Thief]
4 -   3.5 (200) [ 4, 50, Neutral       ]
22 -  20   (30)  [22, 18, Neutral       ]
22  - 20   (15)  [22, 11, Neutral       ]
24 -  32   (100) [ 4, 50, Good          ]
80 - 100   (1)   [20, 15, Neutral, Thief]
81 -  80   (40)  [21, 16, Neutral, Thief]
90 -   0   (2)   [20, 15, Good,    Thief]

Edited April 30, 2010 by VincentASM

[VincentASM]

Just reached Ch 15 of FE9.

Experimental success rate (Number of tries) [Character, Class, Skill, Luck]
0   (25) [Mist, Valkyrie, 10, 21]
0   (25) [Astrid, Bow Knight, 6, 3]
21.4 (24) [ilyana, Sage, 20, 14]
25   (14) [Titania, Paladin, 24, 19]

Oddly, the results seem to fit in better with a Skill% success rate (I was actually hoping for Luck or a fixed rate), although Mist's numbers don't seem to match up (that said, I haven't actually checked if Mist and Astrid are standing on the correct spots).