Schoolgirl Mafia

[Excellen Browning]

right now Iris's inactivity is what strikes me the most and thus:

##Tee-hee~!: Iris

go make yourself look scummy girl.

[Helios]

Now you see why I was so confused last night lol.

Reporting that i redirected the roleblock on you, Balcerzak.

So I'm thinking: "WAIT! You said that actions are supposed to be redirected to you, so how do you redirect it to your target, Marth?"

So I'm thinking Marth is actually the Nexus (aka reverse martyr) and not the martyr at this point.

But then he says:

Helios you are misunderstanding me. If an action was on Bal, that was supposed to be redirected towards me. I guess the possibility of a Nexus is good?

So now the story changes and he is saying that he's martyr again.

It's very possible that the roleblocker has a higher priority, and if we go back to the theory I posted last night things make some sense.

[Kay]

##Vote: 13th

I really did not like the way you claimed for pretty much no reason, during the night, and now won't out your results. You haven't done anything to improve my opinion of you this phase, and your attitude about Bal seems fairly inconsistent. Claiming cop instead of rolecop makes sense as a mistake but it still doesn't help your case.

Also, I have absolutely no idea what happened to who and I'll try to come up with a theory about that later.

Darros looks somewhat townish for saying he did target Marth when he could have tried to lie.

[Excellen Browning]

##Vote: 13th

I really did not like the way you claimed for pretty much no reason, during the night, and now won't out your results. You haven't done anything to improve my opinion of you this phase, and your attitude about Bal seems fairly inconsistent. Claiming cop instead of rolecop makes sense as a mistake but it still doesn't help your case.

Also, I have absolutely no idea what happened to who and I'll try to come up with a theory about that later.

Darros looks somewhat townish for saying he did target Marth when he could have tried to lie.

remember prims's role?

yea

scum.

[scorri]

Kay, I mean, do we really want 13th to come out with who the bodyguard really is? Isn't that a handy role we'd want to not get killed tonight? I'm not saying I trust 13th, I'm just saying I can understand why he might not have said who it was right away.

[Jotaro Kujo]

Marth, for god's sake, get your story straight.

You were first like "I am martyr", but when Bal was roleblocked, you were like "I redirected the roleblock onto you" (which would be Nexus ability), but then you go back and say that you're the martyr, THEN you say that you redirect all actions.

Flip-flopping is making you awfully suspicious.

However, to look at all sides before I just go pointing fingers at everyone, there has been mention that there are priorities. If you truly aren't scum, that means that the roleblocker has a higher priority than the martyr.

However, if you're scum, you're lying about your role right through your teeth. I'd suggest saying who you really are and then sticking with it.

13th, you never answered my question as to why you claimed right when you did. It was a risky move. Also, results of your search would be really nice.

I'd also like more theories on what happened to Aere. I don't have enough information right now to say if I'm leaning more towards vig or two maf kills, but as time progresses I'm sure I will think of something.

The missing role PM is very interesting. It might have something to do with Aere since his role was to show who killed him, regardless of how it was done. It's obvious that something kept his target's PM from getting here, so I'm going to say that there are two roleblockers, assuming that Bal was right about getting roleblocked (there's nothing that would disprove this claim). He was going after 13th, so. It's a shame that we aren't going to get those results.

[scorri]

I mean, you're assuming that Aere did in fact target 13th. It's possible that he instead targeted one of the dead people (in which case the role PM was already revealed) or that he targeted Marth for some reason who Darros claimed to safeguard. If he didn't trust Marth due to all of the confusion going on with Marth's role, it would actually make sense that he targeted Marth to try and figure out what in the world is going on. That makes more sense to me then there being two role blockers.

I'm also guessing that we have a Vig as opposed to two mafia kills. How common is it that the Mafia has a way of killing twice in the same night? I am unaware of any ways except poisoner, but that doesn't mean more don't exist. It just makes more sense to me that there's a Vig.

[Jotaro Kujo]

you bring up a good point, Scorri, with the Aere thing. I hadn't considered that possibility.

[eclipse]

. . .and one final night flavor change (found a better video).

[Aere]

Damn, have fun and good luck you guys! Apologizing again for my stupid mistake, I'll make sure I learn for next time.

[scorri]

Ok I'm not ok with this.

##Vote: Marth

Get in here and explain yourself. You've been all over the place and I don't like it. Please come in and defend ourselves. Also, everyone else we should probably talk some more?

[Helios]

I thought about Aere targeting someone else other than 13th, but if he did then it would have to be Prims, Straw, or Bizz. Now honestly, who do you think Aere would have targeted out of those three? I don't think anyone expected Bizz or Straw to be Mafia or even a threat to town based on their posts, and Prims was looking pretty Pro-town for the most part (I had my suspicions at first, but after a little bit of time in N1 those disappeared, and for good reason) so I really don't see why Aere should have targeted anyone of those three. Is it a possibility? Yes. But does it seem all that logical? Not to me at least. Therefore, I still have a feeling there's something more to this. I realize two roleblockers in the game would be pretty OP, but seeing as there's still a roleblocker in the game (assuming Bal is telling the truth, which I don't see why he wouldn't in this case) and Bizz had a roleblocker-esque role it could be possible. But I'm trying to think of more possibilities.

Is it possible for the Mafia to have a Bus Driver? If that's the case, then it could explain why Aere's oracleness didn't work. The Mafia could have easily switched the places of Bizz (who they were going to kill) and 13th (who we are assuming Aere was targetting). Bizz dies and her role PM is shown anyway, and 13th is still a mystery.

[scorri]

Helios: I think you missed the point where I said Aere might have targeted Marth who would have been protected by the safeguard?

[Helios]

Helios: I think you missed the point where I said Aere might have targeted Marth who would have been protected by the safeguard?

Oh whoops I guess I didn't address that.

That's possible, but I doubt Aere would do that because we all basically knew that Darros would safeguard Marth; it was part of Prims' plan that I think everyone was following. I know everyone started having their doubts at the end, and Marth decided not to target 13th but target Prims, However, Darros wasn't online for quite a few hours before the phase end, therefore he'd have to put his night actions in when he was online. Seeing as he wasn't around during the all the doubt , he was probably just following the plan. So Aere should have knew that Darros was going to safeguard Marth. Also I know Marth started to give off scum vibes towards the end of N1 and beginning of D2, but I doubt that based off that short window of time (relevant to how scummy 13th has looked, which has been a few days really) he would have switched targets. I guess it's possible, but I don't see why he'd change targets to Marth at the last second knowing Darros was going to safeguard him.

[Helios]

Oh quick question. Safeguard protects from everything except kills right? That means basically every other night action right?

[scorri]

Yeah. Also Marth was targeting Bal, not Prims.

[Bluedoom]

Ok, so those who think my story is whacky.

First off, I didn't know the difference between martyr and bodyguard until Kay pointed it out on N1. Then I was all "Hey, if the mafia doesn't know that I redirect side actions to myself too, I'd be a less likely target." So I stuck with BG.

Then when I heard Bal claim that he was roleblocked, I was puzzled that it happened because I shouldve been protecting him. When I meant redirecting the roleblock on him, I meant the roleblock which was supposed to be on him should've been targetted towards me, not the other way around. So whoever's misunderstanding me, here's your answer.

Also its interesting how 13th claims there's a bodyguard in this game. We have two protective roles who sacrifice themselves now? o.O

[scorri]

Speaking of Marth, hey Marth I've seen you hanging around for a bit now. Do you mind speaking up and saying some stuff? You know, defending yourself?

[scorri]

Aw man! Ninja'd again.

[scorri]

Also,

##unvote

I understand getting messed up. Can't blame you for that I guess.

[Helios]

Meant Bal*. My bad on that.

[Bluedoom]

With that, I'm thinking there are two killing roles in this game.

I'm thinking that Bizz actually used her action on Bal, and hence my action failed. But since Bizz died, Bal would've not been kidnapped, and hence he's able to post now.

In that case, how on earth were there two kills?

Well, I don't want to think we have 2 mafia killer roles. That'd make them OP, so that's quite bad. I'm comfortable thinking we have a vigilante because that gives the town a fighting chance.

So, who did the vigilante target?

Well if the vigilante targetted Aere, then its most likely that Aere targetted one of the dead people. In that case the mafia killed Bizz and that makes me suspect Bal because she suspected him too. If the mafia has a roleblocker, then either the roleblocker blocked someone else that night or my theory about Bizz's Night action is wrong.

Or Aere was just trolling use and didn't do a night action.

If the vigilante targetted bizz, then my theory holds more ground I'd say, and the mafia killer and roleblocker just ganged up on Aere.

[Helios]

So remember how I tried to rationalize why Bal still got roleblocked after Marth targeted him? Well now I've caught an inconsistency I think.

>Bal claims roleblocked.

>Marth claims he protected Bal

>Darros claims he safeguarded Marth

Now, I thought before that since Bal got targeted by the roleblocker, and Marth targeted Bal, then the roleblocker would actually redirect to Marth. But since that means Marth gets roleblocked, his role doesn't work, and Bal still gets roleblocked anyway. Now, how can this be if Darros safeguarded Marth? Marth shouldn't have been affected by the roleblocker, because that was the point of Darros safeguarding him. Marth should have been safeguarded, and Bal shouldn't have been roleblocked if everyone is telling the truth.

So I think someone is lying. I highly doubt Bal (even if I'm suspicious of him) would lie about being roleblocked, because as Kay stated earlier it's really not a good idea ever. Seeing as 13th said that Bal had an important role, it makes sense for someone to roleblock him anyway. Also since Darros hasn't been around for quite a few hours before the end of N1, I also doubt he's lying about safeguarding Marth, and I also doubt he was lying about his role. He was going to get lynched, he had no choice but to roleclaim. He even gave us his name (Sailor Moon), and based on the names we've seen from the other roles, I think Sailor Moon is a valid name. So that leaves us with Marth.

I currently believe, and haven't seen a reason not to believe, that Marth has fakeclaimed his roles.

So far a lot of signs point to it. If we recall end of D1, we see that Marth originally claimed BG, went with it for a while, and then decided to say that he was martyr. At the end of N1, he was the only person who decided to deviate from Prims' plan, while everyone else didn't. He also has been changing his story and confusing some of us since the beginning of D2, and has been trying to explain himself ever since.

Marth fakeclaiming makes a lot of sense. It would explain why he messed up the claim D1, why he would decide to target Bal instead of Aere (because if he targeted Aere, then we could all find out that he was fakeclaiming because Aere's role still wouldn't work), and why his story has been all over the place until about now (could it be a slip of his true role maybe? it's possible but kinda unlikely).

#Vote: Marth

You're looking suspicious as hell man. I'm getting some serious scum vibes right now, but you deserve a chance to explain yourself, so go for it.

[Helios]

With that, I'm thinking there are two killing roles in this game.

I'm thinking that Bizz actually used her action on Bal, and hence my action failed. But since Bizz died, Bal would've not been kidnapped, and hence he's able to post now.

In that case, how on earth were there two kills?

Well, I don't want to think we have 2 mafia killer roles. That'd make them OP, so that's quite bad. I'm comfortable thinking we have a vigilante because that gives the town a fighting chance.

So, who did the vigilante target?

Well if the vigilante targetted Aere, then its most likely that Aere targetted one of the dead people. In that case the mafia killed Bizz and that makes me suspect Bal because she suspected him too. If the mafia has a roleblocker, then either the roleblocker blocked someone else that night or my theory about Bizz's Night action is wrong.

Or Aere was just trolling use and didn't do a night action.

If the vigilante targetted bizz, then my theory holds more ground I'd say, and the mafia killer and roleblocker just ganged up on Aere.

I agree that the Mafia doesn't have 2 killing roles, but that there's a vig in the game. But again, I HIGHLY doubt that Bizz lied about not using her role. She's simply not the type of person to lie about it, and she seemed really confused the whole time about how to use it properly. With little knowledge about who was scummy and who wasn't (the one scum target everyone was looking at was 13th, and if she kidnapped 13th this would be a different story) she wasn't sure how to use her role properly, because she was afraid that she'd accidentally kidnap a townie. Simply put it's safe to assume that Bizz did NOT use her role.

Again, I put in posts before this that Aere would have had to target either Prims, Straw, or Bizz. Prims came off as Pro-town to everyone, and Straw and Bizz didn't look very scummy at all compared to other targets (namely 13th or Timpy), so I really doubt that he targeted someone who's dead.

Like I said, Bizz really didn't look scummy at all, so why would the vig waste a shot on her? Again, highly unlikely. And besides, why would Mafia target Aere knowing his role works better after death? If anything, mafia would want to keep him alive til much later since he wasn't much of a threat.

All in all, I politely disagree with your theory.

[scorri]

I agree that it makes more sense for the Vig to have been the one to kill Aere. I think that this seems like the most logical explanation of the situation because killing Aere aids the town not the mafia. However, you're once again skipping over the fact that Aere could have targeted Marth. This is really the only scenario that makes sense to me. Bal was roleblocked which may have been mafia, may have been town. We had a kidnapper, so it seems super over powered to me that we would also have two roleblockers. So, the only ways that Bal could have been hooked and Aere didn't have a result is that Aere either targeted a dead person, or Marth who was safeguarded. As you explained, it doesn't really make sense for Aere to have targeted any of the dead people, so the only thing that makes sense to me is for Aere to have targeted Marth, thus getting his role blocked due to the safeguard.