Linde vs. Ryan

[commonguard]

Upon Redwall's veiled request suggestion, I started this thread.

Continuing on from Redwalls H4 efficiency thread...

If you forge steel without +10Hit you save 2000 instead of 1000 but you delve into 80% displayed hit territory. IFAIK C3 save point is used by Arran or Palla after all the DKs are killed. Not to mention Jake needs to hit the wyrm in C11 on turn 4 EP... the save point is reached on turn 5 I think. That's some shaky accuracy. Sure he saves gold by not needing armscrolls, but in return needs the coveted Speed Wings.

"The only reason to waste more money on an Iron Bow forge is for jerking off to Luke or Draug"

Hey, at least I'm legal and jerking off to a grown man as opposed to giving a prepubescent child a bunch of speed wings and stripping him with my eyes.

"Linde would require a Wyrmslayer forge, which is just plain silly. "

Linde isn't being fielded as an SM in all dragon chapters, and when she is she is either setting kills for Marth or blowing low RES targets out of the water. So she doesn't need a forge. I do however forge a +2Mt wyrmslayer forge for Marth to KO a dragon weakened by Javelin!Palla in C14 that is useful for Sirius/Luke in the late game dragon chapters. Wyrmslayer forge is not silly.

"Linde is costly as fuck and the end result isn't even that guaranteed either."

She's costly but she saves turns. If we are talking about guarantees you better take the 3 turn vs. Cain and Est of Ryan's resume.

"Also, Palla needing 2 wings is just plain false. I've never seen a playthrough where she needed 2 wings to function, ever."

Palla needs 22 SPD to function (double dragons), you probably shouldn't bank on her getting more than 3 on her own before dragon chapters. With RP she needs 1, but without she needs 2.

"PD: You can keep trying but I don't think we won't convince each other. It happens a lot on SF. You won't convince me Linde is better (she really isn't :P ) and I probably won't convince you Ryan is better even with evidence."

You're probably right, we won't convince each other. However I just thought of something crazy because of your post. And I might be able to convince you of something else (or maybe you already had the belief).

*INCOMING CRAZY TALK - READER BE WARNED*

"That's 1980 G on top of the previous 2500 Arms Scroll save. With that 2500 he can buy a Wing for himself. Also, my bad, I had forgotten the Wing in Ch16 is completely accesible in Lunatic LTC, if you're willing to sacrifice the Bullion (completely plausible with good money management and Ryan even saves you money through Steel Bow forge)."

THIS...

just gave me a crazy idea.

Never thought of this. Okay so 8 Speed wings. Palla gets 1 (16 base + 3 speed procs in like 9 level before dragon chapters + 1 arena rig + wing = 22 SPD), Ryan gets 4, Marth and someone else gets the other 3. Ryan needs to be like 16/14 as a horseman to max SPD on average. Definitely possible, and SPD requirements are very doable with RP.

What is Luke contributing?

AFAIK Luke isn't saving turns anywhere and he isn't saving any potential money. He's just a glory hog being the horseman.

Linde + Ryan > Linde + Luke?

All 9 Speed wings and Luke not being fielded allows the ones you allocate to him to be given to Ryan, fixes Ryan's SPD issues and your endgame horseman ready. Hell, Palla can get her 2 Speed wing even.

Holy crap. If you field Ryan as a Myrm/SM long enough he can get enough to hit D Swords as a horseman, then 1 armscroll for C sword..

is Luke worth training?

Reason is because I think you can admit Linde has a niche role as a speed demon hitting RES that Ryan and most other units (may be able to partially compensate for in some ways) but can't replace. Ryan can however replace what Luke is doing for you if he gets his coveted speed wings.

Edited September 7, 2013 by commonguard

[Redwall]

So again, I never believed that Ryan is flat out worse than Linde overall (quite the contrary) when considering Prologue performance; I simply think he's not as good as Linde in the stages after Ch. 5 or so. I wrote my comments in my H4 thread specifically with these subsequent stages in mind.

Throughout this post, I'll assume the tier-list playstyle: H3 with Rainbow Potion and the Drops.

The Steel Bow forge is something that is a good idea anyway as that thing requires less money than the Iron Bow forge. The only reason to waste more money on an Iron Bow forge is for jerking off to Luke or Draug, everone else that wants it can use the Steel Bow forge just fine.

I agree here, but I think commonguard only mentioned the Iron Bow forge since H4 makes it harder to otherwise level up Luke. But since I'm assuming H3 in this post (since that's what the tier list assumes), then yeah, Steel is better.

Also, since when does 50 spd growth = bad? That's 1 proc every other level on average. Sure, the possibility of variation exists, but it can go either way. Just as he can get blessed, he can get screwed. Basing arguments on either way is pretty stupid imo. If we're talking about growth here, Linde doesn't look too hot with her 40 hp growth 5 def growth and 40 mag growth, does she? Her mag growth even gets lower when she promotes. Oh, btw, Ryan can be a serviceable Swordmaster. 15/1 Swordmaster Ryan has [on average 22 AS after taking a Rainbow Potion, just barely enough to double 18-AS Fire Dragons].

I'm talking about the very, very late stages of the game, though--the game after and including Ch. 20. Indeed, if you give him a Speedwing, 15/1 Ryan can double Fire Dragons with decent reliability (BINOMDIST(9,14,0.5,1) gives 91%, without the Speedwing it's about 60%), but come on, even Sirius can double those clowns; these mid-game contributions of Ryan's are not unique, whereas Linde is the most reliable Nos-tank for C15 and the only character AFAIK who can get the Speedwing without forcing you to miss more than one other booster.

As I have no firsthand experience with using Ryan in the lategame, I'll adopt the levels Luke had in my playthrough. We'll assume Ryan is a Horseman and gets one Speedwing and the RP throughout, but we'll treat growths using binomial calculations and assuming he has a 50% chance of gaining Spd upon a level-up (though on average Ryan's observed mean will be slightly lower due to the Hunter tree).

C18 (Lv. 14/8 after C17): You need 26 AS to double the LHS Paladins as a Horseman. Ryan can take the Starsphere if Marth has the Maturity Drop. Ryan has only a BINOMDIST(8,20,0.5,1) = 25.17% chance of reaching 26 AS even after giving him a RP, Starsphere, and one Speedwing.

C19: Your Falcoknight is taking the Starsphere, so Ryan needs to reach 28 AS on his own if he wants to double (which probably isn't necessary if you wipe out Sedgar's Horsemen during a single EP with a +1-Mt or better Poleax).

C20 (Lv. 14/10 after C19): You need 27 AS to avoid getting doubled by Hardin. Starsphere is included here. The odds are BINOMDIST(9,22,0.5,1) = 26.17%. Ideally you would have enough to double Heroes, but that benchmark is even further out of reach (requires 30 AS).

C20x (Lv. 14/13 after C20): Snipers can have up to 26 AS, so 30 AS is needed to double them (sometimes they'll have 25 AS, and the Berserkers will never have more than 25 AS). Reaching 30 AS only occurs BINOMDIST(7,25,0.5,1) = 2.16% of the time even after accounting for the Speedwing and RP. The sharp drop is explained by the fact that the Starsphere is gone by this point.

C21: You need 30 AS to double Berserkers and 28 AS to double Sorcerors.

C22: You need 30 AS to double the boss (Swordmaster doesn't have enough move) and clear with only one Again and one Unlock use in four or five turns. You'll have three more Speedwings by this point, though, so I suppose that's a plus.

C23: Not an issue for Ryan since he can reclass to Swordmaster, I think.

It was not until midway through C23 that Luke capped his level in my playthrough. Even at this capped level, Lv. 14/20 Ryan only reaches 30 AS as a Horseman with RP and one Speedwing BINOMDIST(14,32,0.5,1) = 29.80% of the time. That's bullshit, son.

OK, let's look at benchmarks for Linde. I'll assume 70% Spd growth throughout (because of her promotion, Linde actually gets 75% Spd growth as a Sage, but I'll neglect this since I really don't want to do joint-binomial calculations...)

C11 (Lv. 13): She needs 17 AS (we'll give her the Scorpio shard and the RP here; I think giving the Avatar the Scorpio is preferable in H4, but since this is H3, we can afford giving someone else the Scorpio) to avoid getting doubled by Flying Dragons on her way to the Speedwing. Lv. 13 Linde (really, this is sandbagging I wasn't using the RP in my playthrough, and Linde has an easier time gaining EXP with the RP than without obviously). Linde has a BINOMDIST(4,9,0.3,1) = 90.11% chance of reaching this threshold given the Scorpio and RP. She doesn't need Shaver; what she needs is Nosferatu on the enemy phase, and a Vulnerary + Physic on the subsequent player phase.

C15 (didn't record stats here, but my guess is Lv. 14/5): She needs 24 AS after receiving the Starsphere and RP. If she gets no Speedwings at this level, she'll have BINOMDIST(3,14,0.3,1) = 35.51% chance of doubling. If she gets the C11 Speedwing (which isn't available [w/o giving up more than one other booster] unless you're actually using her seriously), the odds go up to 78.05%.

That's bad, of course, but note that I was playing H4; in H3 her level will undoubtedly be higher because she has ~10 Nosferatu uses to snowball in the Drill Grounds beforehand (the other ~14 uses must be saved for Ch. 15). And of course the RP gives her more opportunities to level up than in my playthrough. If you think I'm pulling this out of my ass, check out some of the posts made by KoT and SDS in the tier list and in their playthroughs; they had higher-leveled Lindes than I did throughout.

She's not gonna get OHKOed as you suggest, nor will she get worn down as long as she doubles.

Oh, and let's compare to Mallesia (who was about Lv. 19/3 at that point), since you brought her up. Mallesia, without any Speedwings, has only a BINOMDIST(5,20,0.4,1) = 12.56% chance, and with one Speedwing, has a 41.59% chance. That's even worse.

I'm not doing any handwaving here, so there's no need to accuse me of such. Ryan's just much less likely to reach the Horseman benchmarks than Linde is of reaching her own benchmarks. Ryan isn't the best Horseman, either, since Arms Scrolls aren't seriously contested and since money isn't an issue after C16 or so (assuming you grab the Bullion [L] over the Speedwing; I think you should always do this since you can simply use the money for enough arena fights to gain a Speedwing's worth of Speed anyway). In contrast, Linde is the best Nos-tank for C15 and the best way to get the C11 Speedwing.

Edited September 7, 2013 by Redwall

[-Cynthia-]

Oh, and let's compare to Mallesia (who was about Lv. 19/3 at that point), since you brought her up. Mallesia, without any Speedwings, has only a BINOMDIST(5,20,0.4,1) = 12.56% chance, and with one Speedwing, has a 41.59% chance. That's even worse.

Is the Rainbow Potion included here? If not, adding it could allow Mallesia to reach most of the benchmarks Linde does without using up most of the combat exp 'pool'.

[Redwall]

Is the Rainbow Potion included here? If not, adding it could allow Mallesia to reach most of the benchmarks Linde does without using up most of the combat exp 'pool'.

Yeah, RP is assumed in all my calculations.

[commonguard]

"I agree here, but I think commonguard only mentioned the Iron Bow forge since H4 makes it harder to otherwise level up Luke. But since I'm assuming H3 in this post (since that's what the tier list assumes), then yeah, Steel is better."

If we are talking rainbow potion, Luke doesn't need an Iron bow forge. Level 9 Knight!MU turned pirate has like 14-15 STR. With RP 16-17 STR and should be at 14 SPD with RP. A +3/4 Mt +10 Hit forge costs like 1600-2400 (1120-1760 without the hit). This forge allows MU to 1RKO non-boss DK's. Going by your C2 strat, except switching MU and General!Arran's positioning during the DK pull, MU can 1RKO one of non-boss DKs on EP and after being healed by Malicia can KO another DK. You should easily have enough fire power left to KO the remaining enemies. Arran can Silver lance that cavalier that hits Marth, Gordin can KO the DK that attacked Arran, Ryan Steel and Luke unforged Iron can KO the boss, Draug, Warren, Catria can do their thing.

Luke at this point could semi-reliably have 11 SPD as a hunter, RP + speed wing is 15. He should very likely have 10 SPD, which is enough to double DKs if the spawn with 10 SPD (which isn't rare and you only need 1 of the DKs to have 10 SPD. 1RKO dracos without a forge. Pretty sure a forged bow won't be necessary in C5. The next time you need a forged bow is probably C9, at which point Luke will have D bows on his own, and you can just forge steel when money isn't as tight.

Iron axe forge seems sketchy but it gets MU more exp and it laxes the DEF requirement for your 9 or 10 turn of C5 since MU would have WTA vs. the DKs. It also gives you some much needed wiggle room for your early bank, if you want to buy some more early statboosters.

"money isn't an issue after C16 or so (assuming you grab the Bullion [L] over the Speedwing; I think you should always do this since you can simply use the money for enough arena fights to gain a Speedwing's worth of Speed anyway)"

I usually don't arena people more than once (just before their promotion to top them off). But I have once tried to continually arena Marth once. The first time he has a pretty okay chance at winning, but after a while he has difficulty winning against even cavaliers with the rapier equiped. How hard is it to win in the arena after a while? How much does it cost? 3 unconsecutive wins gets 1 level, 6 will get 2 I imagine. Cost is like what at this point for promoted units? Say 1.2K a fight, 7.2K (before counting the additional gold added for multiple arena fights) total. Maybe you could try for a small streak? If you are just going to top levels off, can you count on being able to do it in between chapter? Still, those might be some hard fights if you've arena'd him before.

Edited September 7, 2013 by commonguard

[eclipse]

Three things:

1. Did you want a topic just for general discussion about these two, or did you want a debate? A forum exists for debate, but that's one-on-one. If you don't mind a lot of other opinions, then it's perfectly fine here.

2. If you need instructions on how to quote a wall of text, PM me. I think it'll make your responses easier to read.

3. I usually use the arena to top off a character, so to speak. In drafts, I might have someone gain a couple of levels, but it gets prohibitively expensive. This data was taken from H1; I imagine things are worse on H3/H4. I think Linde should be able to cheese her way through the arena with Nosferatu (easier than most people that aren't end-game Ellerean with a lot of stat boosters and Thoron. . .stop looking at me like that, it was for a draft), but I'd rather use that weapon on a map.

[Redwall]

If we are talking rainbow potion, Luke doesn't need an Iron bow forge.

That is kind of interesting. Either a Steel or Iron Bow forge, or an Arms Scroll to get someone like Palla to use unforged Silver Bows, is necessary for a four-turn clear of C17, though AFAIK; the only reason I got a five-turn clear in my playthrough is that my Avatar and Luke were both below average in certain stats at that point. The bow forge does help throughout in all the stages with Dracos. Not sure if it's the optimal thing to do, but it's nice to have.

I usually don't arena people more than once (just before their promotion to top them off).

I usually use the arena to top off a character, so to speak.

Yes, I think that's preferable; my whole point in bringing up that Bullion (L) example was to argue that the Bullion (L) is strictly superior to the Speedwing since you can, if you wanted to (you probably shouldn't, for the reasons you mention), replicate the Speedwing's value.

Did you want a topic just for general discussion about these two, or did you want a debate? A forum exists for debate, but that's one-on-one. If you don't mind a lot of other opinions, then it's perfectly fine here.

Yes, anyone can post.

[commonguard]

Bow forge should be made, and I prefer a +5Mt +10Hit Steel forge over a +8Mt Iron forge, but some conditions of playthroughs may encourage or even force the Iron forge.

As for 4 turning C17, I`d say the benchmarks are too high to realistically reach without the RP.

Max STR, SPD Paladin!MU that needs to hold the Starsphere.

Max STR, high (28+) SPD Horseman with A bows equipped with a 13Mt bow to guarantee 1RKO warriors (needed if you want to access the save point with MU on turn 2)

Sniper capable of 2RKOing the enemy sniper near the start, and tanking 2 DKs on turn 3.

Hard to imagine those units are available without the RP.

The DKs at the start are pretty easy actually. Sniper!Caeda should be able to double the Spear!DK on EP. Etzel can take on the other lance DK and SM!Linde or SM!Sirius with Mercurius can probably 1RKO the axe DK. Linde might need another dose of Spirit Dust and Sirius might have too low SPD without the RP or statboosters but maybe Wo Dao crit could work.

[Redwall]

Oh, forgot about doubling. I think Catria is preferable as the face-tanking Sniper since she can double and has better durability. Wo Dao is best on Marth, I think. But yeah, that's more or less what I figured out independently.

[commonguard]

Luke can weaken the warrior for Marth to kill, or just outright kill the warrior. Palla or someone with low enough LUK can take a hit from the other warrior while MU blocks the longbow sniper. Sirius could also use the Master Sword as well (same crit chance I think).

[Redwall]

That also works. Either way, we are getting off topic.