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NFL 2014-2015 Season: Super Bowl Champion Patriots


Anacybele
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Well it's still a bit hard for me to compare someone like Ben to Luck/Wilson/Cam because of the difference in years in the league. It might be worth noting that Cam only went to the playoffs when he had the #2 defense- although Russell Wilson has also had the benefit of great defenses.

Time for picks:

New Orleans at Carolina- Until the Saints prove they can win on the road, picking against them

Tampa Bay at Cleveland- Browns have some issues, but Bucs have more

New York Jets at Kansas City- Jets are bad, Chiefs are pretty good actually

San Diego at Miami- Dolphins have looked good- but mostly against bad teams really

Arizona at Dallas- Cardinals good run D and passing game matches up well here I think, Cowboys don't have a strong HFA

Washington at Minnesota- Nice win for the Redskins, but two consecutive road games on a short week is tough

Jacksonville at Cincinnati- Bengals are just better, especially at home

Philadelphia at Houston- Texans haven't shown they can beat a good team this year

St. Louis at San Francisco- Niners at home, coming off a bye against a team who's not very good

Denver at New England- Two hottest teams in the NFL, Manning-Brady, yadda yadda. Broncos are great, but I like Brady at home.

Oakland at Seattle- Nope, still not picking the Raiders

Baltimore at Pittsburgh- A hard game to pick given how up and down the Steelers can be, but going with the home team

Indianapolis at New York Giants- I don't think the Giants have enough weapons to keep up, especially with Rashad Jennings possibly out.

Edited by -Cynthia-
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This is a pretty bullshit assessment then. I'm convinced there is no analysis and that you are a homer lol which explains why Ben and Cam Newton are better than Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson

Do you really need to insult me like this? For one thing, Ben has been in the league way longer than those guys and has a lot more experience than them. Cam Newton has been around a bit longer too, and the way this guy can break tackles and extend plays, I'd say Cam even does this better than Ben. He just doesn't have Ben's decision making skills, accuracy, and throwing arm. He can still get the job done though.

And Ben just outplayed Luck by miles! Ben was a lot more accurate, extended more plays, and he didn't throw pick-sixes or stumble into the endzone behind him.

EDIT: Wow, the Skins beat the Cowboys in OT with a third string QB. Cowboys over-hyped much? xP I remember Colt McCoy too, he's another one of the many QBs that the Browns ditched. I know because James Harrison was fined for a hard hit on him some years ago.

Edited by Anacybele
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Do you really need to insult me like this?

I'm not insulting you. You literally said "I have my metrics but I'm not showing them. But trust me, based on research, Ben #5 Cam #6." No proof, no facts, nothing, and you end up saying generic things that most definitely apply to most QBs in this league. I'm calling you out on this.

For one thing, Ben has been in the league way longer than those guys and has a lot more experience than them.

Means absolutely nothing unless you are saying he beats Rodgers and Palmer is the fourth best starter in the league. Hell, by this train of logic the Colts should be starting Matt Hasselbeck and not Andrew Luck, because he has more experience than them! While we're at it, Peyton Manning most definitely was not a better QB than Dan Marino in 1999.

See how flawed this statement is? We're looking at their rankings in-season and not all-time. Ben isn't even #5 in terms of career if you look at the collective careers of all the QBs in the league. I can argue that Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees have had a much better career than Ben very easily. They've also had quite a lot more struggles than Ben did - Ben inherited a very good Steelers team in the 00s, with good receivers to throw to, a good line, a solid run game, and a very stout defense.

I'd also argue Rivers had a better career and Eli Manning has had about as good a career (also given the fact that Eli managed to be the QB of quite possibly the worst team to win a Super Bowl, and that 2011 team that Eli QB'd was actually horrific). Ben's shown that he can make good plays but he hasn't had anywhere close to the burden that other QBs have had, which detracts a lot from his career and everything else in my eyes. When the defense starts to shut down, the OC becomes a bit of a dud (I do agree Haley sucks but your line of reasoning didn't seem valid to me in the slightest), and his OL starts to blow the Steelers go 8-8 consistently, miss playoffs, etc. Ben has definitely shown a lot of times that he's been a product of his team.

Also, if you want to compare Ben's OL to other dudes, Rivers has arguably a worse line that has had like 5 different starters at center this year. But you know why he's doing so well? One reason is gates, the other reason is that he gets rid of the ball quickly and his accuracy is significantly better than Ben's.

Cam Newton has been around a bit longer too, and the way this guy can break tackles and extend plays, I'd say Cam even does this better than Ben.

Luck does this too. Were we watching the same game? Luck was pressured constantly and extended plays or got rid of the ball quickly, which he can do because he reads the defense much, much quicker than Ben. Luck is also as fast as Cam while being a better passer than Cam (Cam is a better runner though, but Luck's passing is quite a bit better because Luck has this thing called touch and he can read defenses quicker). Luck definitely plays far more cerebral than Ben and Cam.

Newton and Luck are 1a and 1b when it comes to breaking tackles and extending plays. Rodgers is 1c purely when it comes to extending plays.

He just doesn't have Ben's decision making skills, accuracy, and throwing arm.

This is not true in the slightest.

And Ben just outplayed Luck by miles! Ben was a lot more accurate, extended more plays, and he didn't throw pick-sixes or stumble into the endzone behind him.

Probably because of the lack of corner depth of the Colts, because Luck got his route jumped which happens when the corner makes a good play and not the QB making a crappy play. Meanwhile, Ben's receivers were wide open all day whereas Luck's receivers were banged up (Wayne was out), Nicks was sucking ass at there, and Fleener is mediocre in general. All he had in that game was like Hilton (who is probably almost always heavily covered) and Dwayne Allen. Bradshaw didn't rush too well either, unlike Bell on the other team, so the team is forced to become incredibly one dimensional.

If the OL is forcing pressure on your face 1-2 seconds into the snap (which was NOT happening to Ben) then your accuracy is affected greatly. Remember how fuckin' terrible Ben looked against the Ravens Week 2? Same idea with Luck, except Luck had considerably better accuracy and poise, and not much of a run game to lean on.

As for Luck, he was rallying. If the D holds on a little tighter and that fluke safety doesn't happen, then Luck had a very good chance of completing the comeback because they had 8 minutes to score a TD and a 2 point conversion, and then adding to that if the Steelers manage another TD or score then Luck could easily match that if he were given 2 minutes.

On top of that, Luck has a tendency to bring the team back from the deep, I'm not sure if you've even been following any aspect of his career but there is a very good reason he went #1 overall. The resilience and command of the offense. On top of that, he also tends to avoid the huddle and abandons the run game when it doesn't work (his OC is very stingy about running the ball and a lot of times it doesn't work). His rookie season was filled to the brim with 4th quarter comebacks because the D would allow like 25-30 points; I think that was the only team in the playoffs that year with a negative point differential.

The stumble into the endzone is a fluke thing and it's something almost every QB is capable of; you're saying Ben has never fumbled a snap before? That kind of stuff seems to happen at the weirdest times. That seems to be exactly what happened here.

You are talking about the same guy who managed to complete the second biggest comeback in NFL history in the playoffs last year, right? Ben hasn't had to do nearly that and I have some doubt he would be able to do that - I can't even begin to describe how terrible a situation Luck was drafted in and how hot and cold his defense can get.

The Colts used to live and die by Manning and it's unfortunate that Luck is bound to the same fate.

Edited by Lord Raven
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I'm not insulting you. You literally said "I have my metrics but I'm not showing them. But trust me, based on research, Ben #5 Cam #6." No proof, no facts, nothing, and you end up saying generic things that most definitely apply to most QBs in this league. I'm calling you out on this.

I'm just going to respond to this bit because I don't have time to read long ass posts and then make a long ass post myself explaining everything I've looked at to come to the conclusions that I have. I'm not saying I know everything, but I believe I know enough to make reasonable opinions.

So like I just said, the reason I didn't explain myself is because nobody wants to read an essay-length post and I didn't have time to type it out anyway. I needed to get to bed so I could get up early for work. And I still don't have time because I have to get ready for work soon.

I'm also getting fucking sick and tired of you calling me out all the time on my opinions. I'm allowed to think what I want to.

Also, for the record, Luck himself admitted that that safety WAS a crappy play by him.

Edited by Anacybele
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I was calling you out on saying a blanket statement without an explanation. I'm not expecting you to respond instantly with a long argument like mine (mine took a little while), but saying something like "I'll post it some other time" as opposed to "trust me, I've researched things that make me correct, take my word for it, here are my results" makes it seem like there is an argument there.

But as it stands, whatever you're using to justify what you're trying to say, right now, is either false or misguided, and my post above points out why exactly I not only believe that but also outright stating that what you are saying is not true. That's why I called you out on what you said, because I don't/didn't believe you had anything but your own biases, and it's very clear to me even reading your previous post that I'm not too far off the mark.

On top of that, it's hard to imagine why you'd place Brees as a top 4 QB for this season if you did all this analysis, because he's had exactly game all season where he looked decisive, had something resembling pocket presence, and accurate (because he was very VERY flustered in every single game I've seen from him this season aside from Green Bay). Ben is playing better than him this season now, which was a hard thing for me to say because I don't like Ben at all and I really really like Brees.

Edited by Lord Raven
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For this season? The list I gave you is an overall list, not a list for just this season. :/

And if you're allowed to call me out for my opinions, I'd like to call you out for how many times you're calling the Steelers' wins flukes or lucky breaks or some shit. I know you hate the Steelers, but I'm not saying any of the Ravens' wins were just luck or flukes. You said that Steelers vs Panthers was a fluke, Steelers vs Texans was luck, and now you're basically saying the Steelers got lucky again against the Colts.

I'm not saying the Steelers are the best team ever right now. They're far from it, in fact, because of how up and down they've been lately. But you need to just admit that they're better than their record says. I'M even admitting that they're better than I thought originally. There was SOME luck in that Texans game and one lucky play against the Colts (no pun intended) that was Luck's butt safety. Luck wasn't ever even touched, he fell back in there himself. The Steelers did nothing to influence it.

Edited by Anacybele
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I've justified the fluke thing... Definition of s fluke is basically an outlier and 2 of those wins were outliers at the time (and even now relative to what they've up until this point the Colts and Panthers blowouts were outliers).

Us? We've had four close games against tough opponents and blown out the easier teams. That's consistency.

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The Steelers didn't exactly blow out the Colts, first of all.

And second, you're the one that isn't being consistent. First you say that the Colts will win because they have such an amazing offense AND defense, then you say they lost because their secondary sucks, their receivers suck, etc. Seriously, make up your mind. You just don't want to admit that a team you hate managed to become good enough to beat a team you like.

I know it feels crappy, I do! I felt miserable as hell when the Ravens blew out the Steelers. But I'm not accusing it of being a fluke or luck or anything. The Ravens were the better team that day and the Steelers still had issues to work out at the time.

NFL.com seems to agree with me that the Steelers are a strong team now too. They're now highest on the Power Rankings out of the AFC North, sitting at no.13, with the Bengals at 14, the Ravens at 15 (I feel bad for them though, seriously. I didn't think they'd drop this far. I'm not joking. The poor guys), and the Browns at 18.

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Nah the Colts defense had an awful game based on the eye test. Doesn't stop them from being a decent defense but that was by far the worst they had played all year. In the context of one game they were awful and played awful and the Colts offense played relatively wonderful because of Andrew Luck. Those receivers seemed to play like crap and much of the team didn't show up to play. Bad defense may have been knee jerk but they didn't play well that game.

Having that said it wasn't a complete blowout, you're right, meaning the one blowout they did have was by definition a fluke. Look up the definition of a fluke. 6 TDs and 40/49 is a fluke game, just like how Flacco throwing 5 TDs in 16 minutes is a fluke. Difference is that the Ravens have been blowing out teams and playing 1 score games with stronger teams whereas the Steelers are week to week.

NFL.com is dumb anyway, the whole AFCN has a winning record and we are in the teens in power ranking? Ravens lose an away game against the Bengals by 3 points and we drop 8 spaces or so? Basic critical thinking shows that power rankings are always dumb because they don't seem to focus on anything but the bulk stats and W-L record... If anything they are only relevant after week 15-16 when playoff spots are taken.

EDIT: power rankings are so so fickle. The colts are at #15? They're 5-3... Steelers only had two dominant games all year (Colts/Panthers) and generally struggled in every other game they've played.

Edited by Lord Raven
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The teams of the AFCN have winning records because the AFCN plays the 2 weakest divisions in football this year.

Tom Brady is over-rated. Brady has never had an "elite" season statistically without the elite pass catchers he's had in his career. He has been above average for most of his career with only 4 elite seasons (possibly 5 after this year). Don't get me wrong, he is a good QB, and has been consistently good throughout his career. But he never had an elite season until he had Moss and Welker. Belichick made Brady, as evidenced by the 2008 patriots 11-5 record. The countless games that Brady performed poorly in that the patriots somehow found a way to win. And the 3 Superbowls that were won by good Defenses and late Adam Vintieri FGs.

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers have all consistently performed better than Brady throughout their careers and Philip Rivers even has a slight edge over him.

Question on Ben's pooch punt. Why does he punt with his left foot?? He's right-handed...

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The teams of the AFCN have winning records because the AFCN plays the 2 weakest divisions in football this year.

Yeah but the AFCW did last year too and they weren't doing quite as well as us (especially considering the AFCW divisional games were backloaded last year and this year there's a lot of AFCN division games at the front of the schedule unless you're the Bengals).

Tom Brady is over-rated. Brady has never had an "elite" season statistically without the elite pass catchers he's had in his career. He has been above average for most of his career with only 4 elite seasons (possibly 5 after this year). Don't get me wrong, he is a good QB, and has been consistently good throughout his career. But he never had an elite season until he had Moss and Welker. Belichick made Brady, as evidenced by the 2008 patriots 11-5 record. The countless games that Brady performed poorly in that the patriots somehow found a way to win. And the 3 Superbowls that were won by good Defenses and late Adam Vintieri FGs.

Yeah but 2007, 2010-2012 were completely monstrously efficient years. He's lead the league in a bunch of categories prior to 2007, it's just that passing yardage, passer rating, and TD count were all much lower before his 2007 season than after.

On top of that... the four seasons he's had a corps of elite pass catchers were the only seasons that his receivers were even above average. Who did he having throwing to between 2001 and 2006? All I can think of are like... Ben Watson, Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, and Deion Branch. Two of those guys are bad... and they didn't have much of a run game either (like one of their Super Bowl winning years I think they had like a 3.6 YPC average). Even last year he had like.. a poor OL, Julian Edelman, Gronk for like 3-4 games, and aside from that he had rookie Kenbrell Thompkins and rookie Aaron Dobson, latter was injured and the former was wildly inconsistent.

I also think you're underrating just how deadly the Patriots offenses were in those four years, too. They were far more effective and efficient than a lot of offenses Peyton Manning has ran in his career. 2007 was the greatest offense of all time and to this day I will never relinquish that thought (the highest points per drive ever recorded at 3.5 - last years Broncos were around 3 and the 2011 Saints were second highest at 3.1 along with a bunch of other teams).

As for the 11-5 season... remember back in 2008 when the NFCW winner were the 9-7 Cardinals (and the second highest were the 7-9 49ers, then the 4-12 Seahawks, and 2-14 Rams)? 2008 AFCW was horrific, too (division winner: 8-8 Chargers, second place: 8-8 Broncos, Raiders at 5-11, Chiefs at 2-14). They were against both divisions. Also, in 2007, when the Patriots actually had one of the hardest schedules in NFL history (and I think it was the toughest) and still steamrolled their way to a Super Bowl? Yeah, that 18-1 team went 11-5... except this time, their division got stronger while the entire rest of their schedule was significantly weaker than 2007. That's how they went 11-5. That 2008 team also scored 244 less points and allowed 43 more points. It's fair to say that the team would be significantly better with Brady in there than without.

We are talking about 29 less touchdowns, 3 more interceptions, 1200 less yards, 5.5% less completion, 1.5 x the int% and less than half the TD% and a whole 1.3 less YPA. Brady's season in 2007 wasn't just elite, it was quite possibly the greatest of all time for a quarterback, and many offenses even with Randy Moss in there couldn't score 68 TDs or 589 points. The only team that came close were the team whose record they beat - the 98 Vikings - and even Cunningham threw 21 less TDs than Brady.

The 2011 Patriots were also not a good defense... They were pretty terrible in fact, and often times they'd rely on Brady taking it in a shootout. 2012 was more of the same. 2010 Brady threw 4 picks all season and set a record with like 300 straight pass attempts without an interception or something like that.

Edited by Lord Raven
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The new DVOA ratings have BAL 2nd, PIT 8th, and CIN 13th, fwiw. All we really know is that the Broncos are really great and the Bucs are terrible.

might as well do picks before basketball comes on

New Orleans @ Carolina- The Saints O is looking good again, and the Panthers D isn't, plus Rob Ryan is finally trying some new things.

Tampa Bay @ Cleveland- The Bucs are really, really bad.

New York Jets @ Kansas City - The Chiefs OL has really come together after a rocky start, and their DL should force Vick into mistakes.

San Diego @ Miami - Dolphins didn't look good last week, and I think their performance against the Bears says more about the Bears' injury luck at the moment than anything (I mean, look at what New England did to them. Playing street free agents in the secondary is rough).

Arizona @ Dallas - Arizona's go go blitzing D should look even better than Washington's, especially if Romo is significantly hampered.

Washington @ Minnesota - The Minny OL is still a borderline dumpster fire. Only picking them against terrible teams (which Washington isn't quite).

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati - The Jags D is coming around, but until Bortles makes mistakes less often, I won't pick them to play spoiler.

Philadelphia @ Houston - The Houston run D has been disappointing. McCoy should look better in this game than he has.

St. Louis @ San Francisco - This should look more like the 2nd half of their previous meeting than the 1st half.

Denver @ New England - I would only pick against Denver in Seattle at this point, if anywhere.

Oakland @ Seattle - On the Packers' bye week, Matt Flynn watches this game sullenly, wondering what could have been.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh - Hopefully for Pittsburgh fans, the Steelers' improved OL play against the Colts and the increased role of Martavis Bryant will be sustained going forward. But man, the Ravens O looked really comfortable the last time these teams played.

Indianapolis @ New York Giants - I don't know what the Giants are, but I know the Colts are pretty good.

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The Steelers' D has finally started to consistently generate turnovers though, so the Ravens' O may not find it so easy to score this time. Keyword, MAY. Not saying this is definite. And with our new depth at receiver, their secondary may find it tougher this time around as well. Ben hit like nine different guys against the Colts, and it would've been more if Heyward-Bey and Dri Archer could just keep their grip on the damn ball. But we saw catches, handoffs, and TDs made by Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton, Heath Miller, Le'Veon Bell, Lance Moore, LeGarrette Blount, and some other dude whose name escapes me. I'd prefer that Dri Archer stepped up and gave us a bit more depth at RB, but as long as Bell and Blount stay healthy, it's not that big of an issue.

Oh yeah, this is a home game for us too. Wee. ^^

But Lord Raven, while I agree with you that those Power Rankings seem a bit odd, you also have to take into account how well other teams do compared to yours. As was stated in the list, teams that were previously below the Ravens won games while the Ravens didn't. So they were able to force the Ravens to go down further than expected.

I thought the Steelers would go higher, but I suppose the teams that were above them did well enough to prevent that.

Question on Ben's pooch punt. Why does he punt with his left foot?? He's right-handed...

About this, it's perfectly natural. Some people just find that even if they use one hand for most things, they find that the opposite foot works best when doing foot things like kicking. I myself use my left foot to kick just as often as my right.

Edited by Anacybele
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Ana I'm scared about Sunday cause we lost Jimmy smith so I won't talk about the game but Darrius Heyward-Bey is horrible and I was laughing about that signing since it happened (which makes me sad cause he's from the area)... Wonderful blocker though.

Also Michael Vick is right handed.

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Power rankings are quite subject to personal bias/preseason projections. For instance, many of the "experts" seem to like the Packers for some reason, despite them losing by 2 scores or more 3 times now and only beating one winning team so far this year (Miami...)

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Ana I'm scared about Sunday cause we lost Jimmy smith so I won't talk about the game but Darrius Heyward-Bey is horrible and I was laughing about that signing since it happened (which makes me sad cause he's from the area)... Wonderful blocker though.

I can see why, Heyward-Bey hasn't looked good in any of the few times Ben used him. Either move him to the o-line since as you said, he's a good blocker, or give him the boot.

I'm also praying that we get at least one of Jarvis Jones and Ike Taylor back for Sunday too. This is an important game for both teams playing it, so we'll need as much strength as we can get.

Cynthia: The Broncos remain number 1 on NFL.com though, and they actually moved the Packers down.

Edited by Anacybele
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Lol he's not a linemen kind of blocker, he's the kind of guy you want downfield on screens or as a special teams gunner/blocker. Probably one of the worst first round receivers ever. Heard he has an amazing work ethic and I know he's talented but has no mental game or catching instinct.

That's why I don't like the experts anyway. They always tend to bias toward or against large market teams and the "hot commodity". They definitely suck off the Packers, like/hate the whole NFCE, don't give a shit about the Cardinals or Lions, and they also suck off the Steelers and Patriots. Meanwhile they still think the Seahawks are a top 10 team.

They've also seemed to ignore the Colts after the peyton manning days.

I also don't like advanced stats but they do follow the idea of execution rather than pure numbers or stats and they're relatively bias free (still biased though)... Football can't really be quantified.

Edited by Lord Raven
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Well, either way, I agree, he was a dumb signing choice. >_> I mean, even though he technically DID catch the ball the one time Ben threw it to him in the Colts game, he lost it two seconds later. :facepalm:

If it wasn't for him and a couple dropped passes, Ben would've shattered the all time single-game passing record. He still had an amazing game and set another NFL record anyway (only QB with two 500+ yard games) as well as some franchise records though, so that's why he's in the thread title right now. Big Ben was the big star in week 8! Those records, fantasy player of the week, and very likely Fed Ex Air Player of the week. And he got number 1 in two top 5/top 10 videos.

You can expect someone different to be up there next time though, someone from a different team even, because the chances of Ben and his squad repeating such a performance so soon are slim. It's just a really tough thing for any team to do.

On a somewhat related topic, Chris Wesseling says Bell is the best RB in the league. Yay. :D Though I'd say he has some pretty good competition from Arian Foster and DeMarco Murray.

Edited by Anacybele
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Actually Flacco had that issue too... he was 21/29 and 8 of them were drops ~_____________~ I think he lost like 100+ yards on them on top of a touchdown from Owen Daniels. That would be completely insane though, throwing 7 TDs on 29 attempts? (Foles did 7 in 28 actually) 5 on 13 was already ridiculous.

I'd say Demarco isn't the best back in the league but he's running behind one of the best lines in the league. Bell's probably one of the best all-around backs but Demarco is a better pure runner (kind of like how you'd compare McCoy to Peterson). I'd say McCoy and Charles are better when they're healthy though, but I guess atm they're day-to-day so...

Also, Champ Bailey just retired yall... So sad. Everything's gone downhill since that 2012 Divisional Playoff game for him, but he was definitely the GOAT corner of the 2000s.

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Well, it's a good thing it's never the QB's fault when a receiver drops a perfectly catchable pass...

So, on another topic, my stepdad posted this article on Facebook. Sorry, Lord Raven, but it just made me laugh. :P The Ravens asking not to play in Heinz Field at night because they're tired of losing there at night... lawl.

Well guess what, Ravens? YOU'RE PLAYING THERE SUNDAY NIGHT. Deal with it. :P

I don't see what difference it makes anyway, whether the sun is up or down. The stadium will always be lit up and the Steeler fans will always be roaring and cheering there. The time of day doesn't have anything to do with the Steelers being able to "know how to work the crowd" or whatever. xP Home field advantage is home field advantage.

Besides, the Browns used to lose to us all the fricken time and I don't think they ever asked for special privileges. lol

And another topic: lol NFL.com recommends to sit both Ben AND Flacco in fantasy football. :P

Edited by Anacybele
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Ana I'm scared about Sunday cause we lost Jimmy smith so I won't talk about the game but Darrius Heyward-Bey is horrible and I was laughing about that signing since it happened (which makes me sad cause he's from the area)... Wonderful blocker though.

Also Michael Vick is right handed.

Mike Vick throws left handed

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Actually, if he throws with his left, but writes with his right, that technically makes him mix-handed. That is to say, he uses different hands for different things. It's pretty much the opposite of being ambidextrous like being right-handed is the opposite of being left-handed. Ambidextrousness is being able to use either hand for any task while mix-handedness is only being able to use different hands for different tasks.

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