Shin Megami Tensei Mafia Day 5

[Estelle]

If it's potential MYLO right now; then we could consider not lynching. Still, the scenario's 99.9% likely to be 4:2. IMO Minerva X should really log on to claim, but if they are what I think they are, then they're town too.

Bringing me to think

•••••• No Lynch

••••• Minerva X

•••• Scum Goon

••• Deathbound

•• Kelpie

• Kenji Harima

I just find it suspicious that no kill happened on the night that 2 people were hooked; Scum Goon could easily be lying about their vote being on Kelpie since DeathBound can't speak up against it. Kelpie's early game play has been weird though, compared to today.

how to mafia is hard

[Rain Nijika]

I confirmed with the host that Knuckles was the non-voter, if it's worth anything. I didn't realize that the kidnap functioned as a hook though.

Kelpie, I'm aware of what happened last time you were a cop but that doesn't mean that your targets make sense based on your gameplay and I don't feel like the mafia would have a redirect and another form of roleblocking on top of what we've already seen. Lucifer has flipped with no ability capable of obscuring themselves from a scan. I have no idea why you would scan townreads (who were likely to get nightkilled anyway) over scumreads or nullreads just based on paranoia.

I inquired about your activity because it seemed strange that Knuckles was being prodded whilst you received no such treatment, leading me to wonder if you'd confirmed your activity in the scum quicktopic or if the host was simply less willing to modkill a mafia member. I had no way of knowing that you had voted and that Knuckles hadn't until I asked the host, so why wouldn't I wonder about it?

I have an idea about what Minerva might be now, but I want her to come in and confirm my suspicions. You might've stopped a kill on me, but I'm unsure. I don't think there's a vigilante out there because Samael has flipped with a vig shot. It's almost certainly not 3:2:1 because that's horrible for balance, and town isn't strong enough rolewise to handle that. It's either 4:2 (most likely) or 4:1:1 with some bizarre third party role we won't be able to guess.

[Estelle]

Note; I actually have a Null Read on Kenji, I just dunno what I was thinking when I made this post.

[Estelle]

True, I could've protected Scum Goon. There's little-no chance of Lucifer protecting Deathbound though, due to fire mechanics and all that jazz.

[Rain Nijika]

I doubt that the mafia kidnapped Deathbound to prevent their own kill. Either Minerva did something to it, or you prevented them from killing me.

[Estelle]

I think I'm content with a vote on Kelpie; despite the claim. I'm more convinced that I protected SG from dying now that I think about it more, and Deathbound being scum!Kidnapjailed solidifies their innocence to me.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I WONDER

[Grace]

edit: nvm

Edited August 26, 2014 by Curly Brace

[All Might]

Jesus christ the game is back

JESUS CHRIST THE GAME IS BACK *panics*

Bluedoom should tell me stuff like this. ;_;

Ok I believe I have relevant stuff to talk about but I need to confirm something with the mods first.

This is... really strange. Massclaim is obviously the best move here, role and day 3 vote. I voted for Kelpie, and I'm a vanilla.

This is a good idea.

I voted Samael yesterday.

I am a Day-safeguard. I want to have something checked with the mods before outing results. Bear with me.

[All Might]

For those that might be confused what this means is I target someone at day and they are safeguarded for the following night.

[All Might]

ok something is wrong.

Something is wrong.

My results are:

D1 - I targetted Red Eye, they were safeguarded for all of N1. Action explicitly confirmed succesful and on Red Eye.

D2 - I targetted Deathbound, they were safeguarded for all of N2. Action explicitly confirmed succesful and on Deathbound.

D3 - I targetted Scum Goon, they were safeguarded for all of N3. Action explicitly confirmed succesful and on Scum Goon.

Both Kelpie's and No Lynch's claims contradict with my own.

Gimme a moment to read everything again.

[Rain Nijika]

I... what?

This is ridiculous. Reasons for night targets?

[Rain Nijika]

And night 0?

[Rain Nijika]

Apparently, 4:1:1 is potential MYLO so I would assume that's what we're in now.

Perhaps No Lynch has had more success than we thought.

[Rain Nijika]

And for the record, I thought that the mafia's kill had been redirected rather than a new source of a kill emerging.

[Rain Nijika]

By that logic, Deathbound is cleared of being both the neutral and the mafia via the kidnap, and I'm cleared from performing the neutral's kill (and my vote yesterday makes no sense for scum either.)

So really nothing has changed there, fortunately.

[All Might]

I... what?

This is ridiculous. Reasons for night targets?

Red Eye was one read I generally felt good about. I still thought that stickmanramp was more scummy than Death so I thought Red Eye would be overlooked at night if Death flipped town and either The Wife or Deathbound would get the mafia's attention. Sent my action before deadline, instantly regretted the moment Death flipped because Red Eye got so towny. ;_;

Deathbound is someone I kept townreading through the game, day 2 I recall there being somewhat more suspicion to the slot so I thought he wasn't getting nightkilled over The Wife.

The Wife died N2 so I thought Deathbound was next so I safeguarded Scum Goon next. I thought you were better than Lucyfan after Raido's flip, knuckles was getting modkilled and everybody else I didn't feel that good about.

And night 0?

There is no Day 0.

For those that might be confused what this means is I target someone at day and they are safeguarded for the following night.

[Rain Nijika]

I don't even know at this point. Your claim is ridiculous but I'm not sure if scum would openly counterclaim a flipped townie and another player at the same time whilst acknowledging that they're doing so?

Mafia is really hard.

[All Might]

Mafia sucks.

Ftfy.

All in all considering this is only potential mylo we could lynch me to confirm my claim and (assuming Deathbound is the redirect because of people suspecting the existence of one) have Kelpie redirected to No Lynch or vice-versa. But this is of course risky since hell do we know what role No Lynch might actually be if he's a neutral.

Wait actually Deathbound was kidnapped so he couldn't have done anything last night that might've justified the lucyfan kill right? (apart from something crazy like being strongwilled)

So the redirect should be from No Lynch if there is any.

The safest option to lynch is Kelpie because of current suspicions on the slot + inconsistency of results and reads + my counterclaim then, fmpov.

[Estelle]

THANK YOU MOD FOR TELLING ME MY NIGHT RESULT WAS WRNG

I failed last night. MinervaX's role is legit. Scum Goon wasn't jailed.

Also Minerva I was flipped by an oracle, I'm proven town. Stop looking at me like that please.

[Estelle]

So deathbound is still cleared for all intents and purposes, I'm clear because oracle, and Minerva is pretty much clear by being towns alternative protection?

[Estelle]

Yea the jack had driver for alternative protection so I'd buy the SG claim as town...even after a flipped Backup even...hmm

[Rain Nijika]

So basically:

-No Lynch is cleared

-Minerva's role is now proven and probably cleared because mafia safeguard is ridiculous

-Deathbound is confirmed not ITP and probably not scum

-I'm unlikely to be mafia based on my voting yesterday, but could still be ITP

-Kenji is just kind of there?

-Kelpie is now in a 1v1 with the confirmed safeguard.

I expect Kelpie is the last mafia member, leaving Kenji as the neutral. I think that we should lynch Kelpie today and then have No Lynch decide who to jail out of myself and Kenji and out it, with Minerva safeguarding No Lynch to prevent any last minute surprises.

If Kelpie turns out to be a mislynch, No Lynch acts according to their own judgement and hopefully we make it through the night.

I'm going to try and figure out where the kills went now.

[Rain Nijika]

No Lynch/Minerva, do you think that Samael would use his drive night 2 or his vigilante kill?

[All Might]

THANK YOU MOD FOR TELLING ME MY NIGHT RESULT WAS WRNG

I failed last night. MinervaX's role is legit. Scum Goon wasn't jailed.

Mmm. Ok.

What isn't answered is how the scumkill got redirected/another kill popped up.

Actually the kill couldn't have been Scum Goon because he wasn't jailed now. What.

But at the same time this gives more certainty that we're dealing with an ITP somewhere.

No Lynch/Minerva, do you think that Samael would use his drive night 2 or his vigilante kill?

Kenji was jailed by No Lynch N2. Assuming he's ITP, we can only really connect the kill to Samael (or scum, but that leaves Samael vigging The Wife...?).

Assuming you're neutral, it's fairly more up in the air.

[Estelle]

Wow, this game though. o.O

I'm an alignment cop, and my vote was on Samael D3.

N0: I scanned Deathbound (came back with "aligned with the Light").

N1: I scanned The Wife (came back with "aligned with the Light")

N2: I scanned/targeted Fangirl, but ended up getting results on Deathbound (again). So assuming redirect or something hit me.

N3: I scanned Fangirl AGAIN but then got absolutely nothing. So assuming at this point some sort of safeguard on Fangirl happened or RB hit me.

So yeah- this is why I kinda glazed over Deathbound/The Wife once my reads both came back as "aligned with the Light", and why I highly questioned Scum Goon's tactics/claims against me, as well as Samael's notions of 'paranoid cop'. There was little/no reason to reveal N0/N1 results, and it seems my attempts at trying to figure out stuff around Fangirl really hasn't brought much forth for town. Sorry. ;/

Not claiming redirected immediately on D3 is a problem, regardless of your role.

ok something is wrong.

Something is wrong.

My results are:

D1 - I targetted Red Eye, they were safeguarded for all of N1. Action explicitly confirmed succesful and on Red Eye.

D2 - I targetted Deathbound, they were safeguarded for all of N2. Action explicitly confirmed succesful and on Deathbound.

D3 - I targetted Scum Goon, they were safeguarded for all of N3. Action explicitly confirmed succesful and on Scum Goon.

Both Kelpie's and No Lynch's claims contradict with my own.

Yea mods, can't live with em, can't live without em. Your action for D3 is confirmed by my failure, and I'm mod-confirmed Town Jailkeeper. congrats.

Wait actually Deathbound was kidnapped so he couldn't have done anything last night that might've justified the lucyfan kill right? (apart from something crazy like being strongwilled)

So the redirect should be from No Lynch if there is any.

Can't have been from me.

N2: Deathbound was Safeguarded. N2: Kelpie learned that Deathbound was light aligned. Since I know for a fact that SAfeguard outprioritizes my action, I'm going with Kelpie=Scum here.

I would assume Sam Vig-fired the other night.