Shin Megami Tensei Mafia Day 5

[Estelle]

Actually the kill couldn't have been Scum Goon because he wasn't jailed now. What.

The question is how did Lucifer's #1 Fangirl die last night? Scum Goon could've done it, as he wasn't jailed. That's what I'm getting at; he's no longer clear by way of my role.

[Estelle]

N2: I scanned/targeted Fangirl, but ended up getting results on Deathbound (again). So assuming redirect or something hit me.

If the drive shot occurred, then this could be a legit redirect. The Safeguard still would've hit Deathbound though, as it's deemed successful at the end of D2? (I'm assuming) Even if the drive occurred, Minerva was given successful results, meaning that it happened. Since the safeguard happened, how could anything have actually worked on Deathbound, even with a drive? If the drive outprioritized the Safeguard, which I find unlikely at best, that could explain something.

[All Might]

It would be really cool if Kelpie decided to help town and tell who mafia shot yesternight. ouo

Professional plans from a professional mafia player.

Not claiming redirected immediately on D3 is a problem, regardless of your role.

Uh if Kelpie were posting in D3 at all then we'd have a problem.

N2: Deathbound was Safeguarded. N2: Kelpie learned that Deathbound was light aligned. Since I know for a fact that SAfeguard outprioritizes my action, I'm going with Kelpie=Scum here.

Kelpie wouldn't even be redirected to Deathbound, actually. That'd require a driver/redirector to have targeted Deathbound as well.

Would any redirecting role even be able to change a person's target without getting blocked by the safeguard?

The question is how did Lucifer's #1 Fangirl die last night? Scum Goon could've done it, as he wasn't jailed. That's what I'm getting at; he's no longer clear by way of my role.

This is true.

It would be more likely to be a redirect or an ITP with a kill and a BPV in this case.

[All Might]

it's deemed successful at the end of D2? (I'm assuming)

This is correct.

I receive my success results along with the day's lynch.

[Estelle]

Per Rules:

7) Role PMs will be revealed upon death.
Portions of role PMs that cannot be revealed will be snipped.
Role PMs of players who are modkilled will not be revealed.

12) Investigation results might not be accurate.

13) Redirections will not be revealed.

14) Successful protection will not be disclosed.

Marthnix should uhh....yea, these hurpdurps.

Regardless; Kelpie should not be aware that her results from N2 came from Deathbound, per Rule 12.

[Estelle]

It would be really cool if Kelpie decided to help town and tell who mafia shot yesternight. ouo

Professional plans from a professional mafia player.

Uh if Kelpie were posting in D3 at all then we'd have a problem.

Oh right. I pretty much forgot about the game when we went two nights and a day phase without being allowed to do anything.

[Estelle]

Per Rules:

Marthnix should uhh....yea, these hurpdurps.

Regardless; Kelpie should not be aware that her results from N2 came from Deathbound, per Rule 12.

Rule 13. I'm an idiot.

[All Might]

Guess the bastard element was that the rules weren't all that true!

That is a good point about Kelpie's claim though. I'm pretty sure Kelpie's been buried in a massive hole of contradictions they can't escape from right now.

[Estelle]

Hey Scum Buffoon, shake that ass back in here and do something with it.

I'm still banking on SG not being scum due to circumstances.

Leaving Kenji Harima and/or Kelpie as antitown

[Rain Nijika]

I think No Lynch may have actually blocked the scumkill Night 1 after all? Red Eye doesn't seem like an absurd SK kill for me, and Kenji brings up a good point that L1F was likely to be on the kill due to his night ability.

Night 2 is a blur, but The Wife seems more likely to be a scum kill and then either Samael or the SK did it.

I think that last night the mafia could've hit a bulletproof vest or some kind of protection the neutral had? Nothing else adds up, besides the neutral having a strange kill pattern or something.

Alternatively, the mafia and SK could have crosskilled somewhere down the line (night 2 seems more likely, but night 1 is also possible I suppose), but I'm unsure.

@Mod, has Deathbound voted yet?

It's probably worth pointing out Kelpie should've failed anyway even if you were both driven because your safeguard still would've blocked her.

[Rain Nijika]

And wrt the redirect rule, are both of you only notified you succeeded or that you successfully targeted X?

[Grace]

votals:

Kelpie (1): Deathbound

Not Voting: Everyone else

It takes 4 to lynch. There are 22 hours left in the phase.

(also i think i need to just completely take over at this point bc marf is MIA)

[Estelle]

Apparently Deathbound thinks Kelpie is scum. Neat-o.

I was just told "You're Successful" and "You've Failed". No mention of names or w/e

[Rain Nijika]

It seems as though Deathbound has reached the same conclusion as we have then.

No Lynch, who are you going to jail tonight on an antitown!Kelpie flip? We need to know in case you die.

[Estelle]

##Vote Kelpie

I've had enough of this. If Kelpie is indeed Town, then we've been trolled hard.

If Kelpie flips Town: I'll target whoever the heck I feel like; probably Kenji

If Kelpie flips Mafia: I'll target probably Kenji or possibly ?ScumGoon?

If Kelpie flips ITP: I'll target Kenji

Pretty much Kenji is my intended target for the night. In an effort to determine how Lucifer died, I'm seriously hoping that we hit an ITP here. Regardless, I have my reservations about Kenji Harima because ScumGoon's Kelpie vote from the other day implies that he wasn't trolling Deathbound (Who could've outted him by voting for SG anyway. DB voted for Samael thusly). Minerva X being a Day SG Night SK isn't out of the question, but pretty ridiculously powerful for a SK nonetheless, and I'd rather err on the side of that being incredibly imbalanced and not existing. Deathbound is essentially proven clear for today's concern.

[All Might]

I think No Lynch may have actually blocked the scumkill Night 1 after all? Red Eye doesn't seem like an absurd SK kill for me, and Kenji brings up a good point that L1F was likely to be on the kill due to his night ability.

Night 2 is a blur, but The Wife seems more likely to be a scum kill and then either Samael or the SK did it.

If we take this in consideration with No Lynch's targets (Lucyfan N1 and Kenji N2), it is possible by some twist of luck that they blocked the scumkill Night 1 and the ITP kill Night 2. According to our suspicions.

I think that last night the mafia could've hit a bulletproof vest or some kind of protection the neutral had? Nothing else adds up, besides the neutral having a strange kill pattern or something.

True.

Part of me wonders how the revealed jailkeeper has survived this long though. Kills were weird no matter how you slice it.

And wrt the redirect rule, are both of you only notified you succeeded or that you successfully targeted X?

I was always told "your action on USER has been succesful". Implying I wasn't redirected.

I guess it makes sense since I'm day-safeguard and probably out-prioritize the rest of the game?

As confirmation, the plan is for me to safeguard No Lynch, right?

[Estelle]

Given the current results: Myself, Scum Goon and Deathbound could not have killed Lucifer last night. This leaves Minerva X, Kenji and Kelpie as potential killers (either ITP or Mafia in a team of 2). Of the three, Minerva just seems too powerful to be aligned with anything but town (unlimited Strongkill, since it goes over my Jail, is insane). Contradicting claims push Kelpie into the spotlight, and Kenji is just sort of a wildcard. Deathbound can't be ITP, and would very likely not be scum, and depending on Kelpie's flip, Scum Goon is either clear or not.

Yea, I'm going for the hook element of my Jail, and probably aiming it at the wildcard Kenji

[Rain Nijika]

I forgot that Kenji was jailed night 2. No Lynch for best jailkeeper?

It's possible both antitown factions expected the other to strike down No Lynch? I wondered about that myself, but a Godfather Roleblocker seems incredibly unlikely, considering all flipped mafia members had the ability to hook so far.

[Rain Nijika]

What really messes with me is how much easier this would be if Knuckles didn't get modkilled (or if I rolled Tracker instead, even.)

[Rain Nijika]

I forget why I'm exempt from being able to kill Lucifer though, now that the failed jail was revealed.

You could argue that the hosts completely forgot the safeguard existed though, I suppose.

[Estelle]

You could have killed Lucifer, I suppose. However, My jail is now revealed as failed and no additional deaths have occurred. Someone still killed Lucifer, even if you did, too. For now, I'm just acting as if I jailed you successfully because pondering the "did SG and X same-target last night?" question will give us all headaches.

[Estelle]

It's possible both antitown factions expected the other to strike down No Lynch?

Stahp trying to be scum

[Bluedoom]

Ok my apologies for not existing, my net is down so i'm stuck to phoneposting

i'm hoping that i'll get it back 2morrow but if i don't well its cool if manix takes over

[Aizen]

considering how overpowered the town has been so far (especially with info roles) I seriously doubt scumteam would have less than 4 members, which is why I think there are no ITPs in this game. Also considering how OP town roles are, it actually isn't too farfetched for scum to have a jailer godfather with no actual protection role for town for the reason that NL survived this long. NL, why did you not claim your action had failed earlier?

I was thinking the kill of Fangirl took place because DB was a PGO or something (and this actually doesn't contradict any theories if we consider that early SG means PGO doesn't activate because it is still day phase and since PGO would be a passive ability, it shouldn't be blocked by kidnapping.

As for why the scum kill failed, I cannot imagine, unless I go really farfetched (even more than NL being scum)

however for now, I think town has already had way too many investigation roles and unless this game is like Touhou mafia where all investigative roles were town and all info role usage preventing were scum, I cannot see Kelpie as town. (if this theory was in effect, Minx and NL would have to be scum together)

I am actually totally beat and I don't even know what to think

[Rain Nijika]

With the exception of the Jack and maybe the tracker/jailkeeper, none of town's roles this game are that strong. And how would the mafia have died last night anyway without a neutral in the mix?

I'm tempted to just put my vote down now because I don't see my opinion changing soon.