Shin Megami Tensei Mafia Day 5

[Rain Nijika]

According to Manix, 4:1:1 was MYLO as the game couldn't end that night following a No Lynch, so he didn't derp. The Serial Killer and mafia couldn't joint; that only happens on epicmafia. I don't think we should take what Kelpie says seriously though, as third parties always have their own agenda and Kelpie wanting to spite me after being on her case all game isn't exactly improbable.

If you ignore the kidnapping gambit, you'll remember about what he told No Lynch about using his kill as a hook, and how he also began to hard defend L1F at the start of Day 2. When you realize that he only had one ally left, it makes sense to defend them, especially when they would be aware of the Serial Killer's actions. Meanwhile nobody is presenting a case on me aside from process of elimination when the kidnap point isn't even that strong if the mafia thought it would protect and they could still vote using it anyway. It would also prevent them from messing up a claim in MYLO and would make others unwilling to lynch them.

[Marisa Kirisame]

ok gonna be a little busy today sorry but to me it seems kind of obvious Scum Goon is scum- he's kind of the only option left. There doesn't seem to be any reason for Kelpie to have lied to us- she clearly wanted town to win if she couldn't, since she killed Fangirl knowing he was scum. And I can confirm that her report about me, including my character, is correct (and Minerva is also a proven safeguard).

Scum Goon's conspiracy theories about me being scum don't make sense. Yes, I wrongly read the interactons between Death and Fangirl- but his attempts to make it out as me hard defending my buddy have no actual backing behind them. If I wanted to hard defend him D2 because he was my only buddy left, why would I have bussed my first buddy D1? He mentioned about how Death was going to be lynched anyways, but that's not true at all. I was one of the main proponents of the Death wagon D1, and at a time when the wagons were tied and The Wife had unvoted him, I persuaded him to come back onto the wagon when I could easily have swung the wagon onto Stickmanramp. And then, even if Death had gotten lynched D2, he would have been able to use his mass-hook on N1, which would have been 100% worth postponing his lynch for. And like, that's not even accounting that for the first chunk of D1 I was attacking Fangirl, meaning that my goal at the start of the game, as scum, would literally had to have been to bus a buddy D1. Why am I defending the other one on D2 again???

All the stuff about me telling No Lynch to use his action as a hook instead of a doc being scummy is hilariously bad. Firstly, No Lynch was a confirmed town protective role. He was obviously going to be the mafia's #1 target, and the odds of there being a doctor in addition to a jailkeeper were very low. No Lynch couldn't protect himself by using his role as a doc- the only chance he had of surviving was to use it as a hook and target scum on the kill with it. The idea that I could kill obvtown people by having the protective role target scummy people over them makes no sense because then I could just kill No Lynch (the most obvtown person) and then kill the other obvtown people. Secondly, why on earth would I want to leave a confirmed town JAILKEEPER of all roles alive until lategame? Jailkeeper is hands down the strongest town role in lategame- look how No Lynch just confirmed Kenji as town?

Also, we already know that the mods made a mistake by telling NL that his action succeeded. It makes perfect sense that they counted scum's kill as being blocked because of it. They couldn't suddenly go "okay now this dude is also dead" in the middle of the phase because that would have been as good as mod-confirming that SG was scum.

Finally, I'm like pretty sure that SG scumslipped- here's another scenario that I thought of. Samael didn't vig Stickmanramp- he drove Stickmanramp with someone obvtown, say No Lynch. The mafia tried killing NL and got redirected to Stickmanramp instead. The mafia would know that their kill went through (just not on the intended target), and it perfectly explains SG's comment.

##Vote: Scum Goon

[Rain Nijika]

ok gonna be a little busy today sorry but to me it seems kind of obvious Scum Goon is scum- he's kind of the only option left. There doesn't seem to be any reason for Kelpie to have lied to us- she clearly wanted town to win if she couldn't, since she killed Fangirl knowing he was scum. And I can confirm that her report about me, including my character, is correct (and Minerva is also a proven safeguard).

Kelpie has no reason to want town to win over any other alignment - as the last Mafia standing in Chilean BBM was going to fake results to get another player lynched after his death so that the SK would win (or like Elieson attempting to guilty a townie on the last day of Fakeclaim when he knew he was sunk), so I see no reason to believe that Kelpie is telling the truth and I know that you know better than this. FMPOV, Kelpie was probably lying because her bulletproof vest being expended is the most likely

Scum Goon's conspiracy theories about me being scum don't make sense. Yes, I wrongly read the interactons between Death and Fangirl- but his attempts to make it out as me hard defending my buddy have no actual backing behind them. If I wanted to hard defend him D2 because he was my only buddy left, why would I have bussed my first buddy D1? He mentioned about how Death was going to be lynched anyways, but that's not true at all. I was one of the main proponents of the Death wagon D1, and at a time when the wagons were tied and The Wife had unvoted him, I persuaded him to come back onto the wagon when I could easily have swung the wagon onto Stickmanramp. And then, even if Death had gotten lynched D2, he would have been able to use his mass-hook on N1, which would have been 100% worth postponing his lynch for. And like, that's not even accounting that for the first chunk of D1 I was attacking Fangirl, meaning that my goal at the start of the game, as scum, would literally had to have been to bus a buddy D1. Why am I defending the other one on D2 again???

Do you think that Death would have actually lasted to lategame at the rate he was going? There are games like Villains Anonymafia 2 on Motk (maybe you've heard of that game!) where BBM/Norman Bates ended up leading the lynch on his scumbuddy who had no suspicion on him. You also seem to forget that I was also pushing Death just as hard as you were, so this isn't a point in your favor. In addition, ED1 attacks rarely go anywhere (and look, L1F was pushing at Death in RVS in this game too!) As for why you changed from attacking to defending, you obviously can't afford to bus both your scumbuddies in a row and instead resort to hard defending him. You continued to push stickman on Day 2 even when I insisted that he was townie based on being a counterwagon which reads like attempting to worm out of potential PoE later on in the game. The only time I remember you townreading someone other than L1F were when you townread myself and The Wife at some point during Day 1, and then you never really mentioned us again.

All the stuff about me telling No Lynch to use his action as a hook instead of a doc being scummy is hilariously bad. Firstly, No Lynch was a confirmed town protective role. He was obviously going to be the mafia's #1 target, and the odds of there being a doctor in addition to a jailkeeper were very low. No Lynch couldn't protect himself by using his role as a doc- the only chance he had of surviving was to use it as a hook and target scum on the kill with it. The idea that I could kill obvtown people by having the protective role target scummy people over them makes no sense because then I could just kill No Lynch (the most obvtown person) and then kill the other obvtown people. Secondly, why on earth would I want to leave a confirmed town JAILKEEPER of all roles alive until lategame? Jailkeeper is hands down the strongest town role in lategame- look how No Lynch just confirmed Kenji as town?

If the mafia know that they can play around a protective role with ease because they're too busy hooking townies (which would've even worked in their favor had Kenji and myself not been Vanilla townies) who they have business nightkilling. The mafia could also have thought that the Serial Killer would take care of the Jailkeeper (like I said earlier) instead of wanting to kill them themselves.

Also, we already know that the mods made a mistake by telling NL that his action succeeded. It makes perfect sense that they counted scum's kill as being blocked because of it. They couldn't suddenly go "okay now this dude is also dead" in the middle of the phase because that would have been as good as mod-confirming that SG was scum.

The counterargument to this is suddenly having me drop dead if I had been protected from your nightkill (whcih doesn't seem impossible considering that if No Lynch hadn't cleared several other players I would've been one of the hardest players to lynch this game) and then confirming that I was the mafia's kill target, No Lynch successfully protected me and that Minerva's role were true all at the same time. There's also the fact that I have no reason to take the nightkill when Lucifer's role exists, as the mafia would benefit much more from having him take the kill than me.

Finally, I'm like pretty sure that SG scumslipped- here's another scenario that I thought of. Samael didn't vig Stickmanramp- he drove Stickmanramp with someone obvtown, say No Lynch. The mafia tried killing NL and got redirected to Stickmanramp instead. The mafia would know that their kill went through (just not on the intended target), and it perfectly explains SG's comment.

I forgot that Samael was the vigilante because I assumed that Kelpie was the last mafia member, not the Serial Killer, as that was the assumption that I had been working off of, so I mixed up who the mafia nightkilled and forgot Samael's vigilante kill existed. Also, isn't it possible that Samael used his drive Night 1 instead as he has no action accounted for at that point in time?

[Rain Nijika]

Also:

What happened in conspiracy?

Town threw the game in *YLO and I'm fairly sure that one of the living players was alive in MYLO there.

[Marisa Kirisame]

NEVER HEARD OF THIS NORMAN BATES CHARACTER OR THIS MOTK FORUM OR THIS VILLAINS GAME EVER IN MY LIFE

NOT EVEN SURE IF I'VE HEARD OF THIS BBM PERSON

Kelpie is obviously different from BBM in Chilean and Elie in Fakeclaim because neither at any point in the game undertook an action purposely to hurt one alignment over the other. Kelpie targeted Fangirl after having inspected him, knowing he was scum, and wanting to kill scum. It makes no sense to do that if she was going to later try an elaborate scheme to make the scumteam win if she couldn't.

Not saying that me pushing Death is specifically a point in my favour, since yes, I know that you did too, but it's still not a point against me as you try to make out, and you still didn't answer the point that Death didn't need to make it to endgame. He needed to make it to D2, so that he could use that shiny mass-hooking ability he had. And if you're going to bring up meta in anon games, BBM in Villains 2 didn't hard-defend his buddy D2- in fact he started an awkward semi-push against them. Now you could say something like MAYBE DEATHBOUND LEARNED FROM BBM'S MISTAKES but there was still no reason for me to hard-townread Fangirl when nobody was even like pushing them in the first place. It makes it harder for me to bus them later if I need to, and looks bad for them if the SK (which I would have at least suspected existed) killed me (no ego I was pretty obvtown).

I'm, uh, not sure how not townreading people is scummy, and actually I backed off my stickmanramp scumread once I realized he was just Cam dicking around. And since he does that as scum too, I didn't see a reason to townread him.

Sorry, just because I could potentially dance my way around the jailkeeper is still no reason why I'd want to let him stay alive when he was confirmed town, and why I'd want to let him get to the stage of the game where he becomes the strongest town role in the game of forum mafia. And it still doesn't change the fact that an orc'd jailkeeper using his role as a hook rather than a doc is 100% the optimal move for town in all scenarios. This is an Oarfish Theory^TM. You might be familiar with those if you are familiar with the forum MotK.

Sure, that's also a plausible situation in the scenario where I am scum. But one question- in this scenario, where exactly did the mafia kill go on N3? Did they... target themselves??? And don't say they targeted Knuckles, when the mod announced in-thread that they might modkill him. And fwiw, you did have a reason to take the NK over Fangirl- he'd been hooked once by NL already, and you might have decided that taking it yourself would be safer (except it wasn't; RIP).

He might have used his drive on N1; this is true. And yeah, you "thought" Kelpie was mafia yesterday and not the SK. But Kelpie flipped SK yesterday. You didn't STILL think Kelpie was mafia when you made that comment. And besides, why would that even make you forget Samael had a vigshot?

I don't have anything really to say about SG's earlygame bc tbqh he was my strongest townread (not counting No Lynch after the orc) until D4, but there's just no place for him to be town in this game.

anyways out for a while

[Sham]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT

[All Might]

According to Manix, 4:1:1 was MYLO as the game couldn't end that night following a No Lynch, so he didn't derp. The Serial Killer and mafia couldn't joint; that only happens on epicmafia. I don't think we should take what Kelpie says seriously though, as third parties always have their own agenda and Kelpie wanting to spite me after being on her case all game isn't exactly improbable.

Fair on the bolded part.

Good point on the underlined part, I used the assumption he could joint from his claim yesterday but completely forgot I had just read his wincon, go me.

You are not the only person in town and I feel asking us to ignore kelpie's information can also lead to be potentially harmful by losing a fair amount of coordination and confirmation, it's a tricky situation, but:

Let's say that Kelpie is a liar: if we're to assume that, we could even assume it's possible that lying about BPV being shot is their way of telling scum whether they're being truthful to town or not. But still, the burden of proof is on you on why they'd favor one faction over another or neither. Arguing that they're screwing town to spite you is not exactly valid when you're one of two main suspects for the day and might as well be confirming they wanted to screw over the scumteam, not town.

If you ignore the kidnapping gambit, you'll remember about what he told No Lynch about using his kill as a hook, and how he also began to hard defend L1F at the start of Day 2. When you realize that he only had one ally left, it makes sense to defend them, especially when they would be aware of the Serial Killer's actions.

The bolded is a bad start to a case already, in my opinion, but I digress.

You say they began to defend Lucyfan then, but from rereading their ISO I find that they've only really mentioned them once and let it be, whether that is burdening proof is hard to determine as the rest of the game also gave Lucyfan a free pass then. If anything, it is worth noting that you had basically no interactions with the slot past Day 1, and even during early to mid Day 1 your only relevant interactions with the slot were handwaving it as townie tryhard and then mentioning their death vote as lazy, which is rather curious as you never touch the slot later. Another slot whom receives a similar treatment from you is Death, though this one was defended by analyzing the votes on them as weak, yet voted some time into their wagon as a counter to Red Eye's growing wagon, despite early reads on Red Eye. The vote stuck at that point, but I believe at that time in D1 Deathbound's an Scum Goon's positions were fairly similar. The one difference I see is you townread Lucyfan from the start and then forget about the slot while Deathbound analyzes the slot later.

Meanwhile nobody is presenting a case on me aside from process of elimination when the kidnap point isn't even that strong if the mafia thought it would protect and they could still vote using it anyway.

Process of elimination is still a valid method in mafia lategame. Especially in a game with such ridiculous roles as this.

I don't exactly intend to hammer just yet, maybe it'd be cool for Kenji to show up again.

There's also like three new wallposts gee. >_<

[Marisa Kirisame]

ok LAST THING

scum trying to kill Kelpie only makes sense in the Oarfish Theory^TM world where they also left the confirmed town jailkeeper alive on purpose until MYLO

and also I just remembered that in Villains 2 Norman Bates was the first vote on his buddy with 24 hours left in the phase. I was the third vote, with 36? hours left in the game. 10/10 times that latter scenario is more likely to get your buddy lynched than the former (which most of the time would just be distancing)

[Rain Nijika]

NEVER HEARD OF THIS NORMAN BATES CHARACTER OR THIS MOTK FORUM OR THIS VILLAINS GAME EVER IN MY LIFE

NOT EVEN SURE IF I'VE HEARD OF THIS BBM PERSON

GOOD FOR YOU, HE'S LITERALLY HITLER

Kelpie is obviously different from BBM in Chilean and Elie in Fakeclaim because neither at any point in the game undertook an action purposely to hurt one alignment over the other. Kelpie targeted Fangirl after having inspected him, knowing he was scum, and wanting to kill scum. It makes no sense to do that if she was going to later try an elaborate scheme to make the scumteam win if she couldn't.

Kelpie could've shot L1F because they were trying to win themselves instead? You're not going to play to someone else's win condition until your own is no longer achievable

Not saying that me pushing Death is specifically a point in my favour, since yes, I know that you did too, but it's still not a point against me as you try to make out, and you still didn't answer the point that Death didn't need to make it to endgame. He needed to make it to D2, so that he could use that shiny mass-hooking ability he had. And if you're going to bring up meta in anon games, BBM in Villains 2 didn't hard-defend his buddy D2- in fact he started an awkward semi-push against them. Now you could say something like MAYBE DEATHBOUND LEARNED FROM BBM'S MISTAKES but there was still no reason for me to hard-townread Fangirl when nobody was even like pushing them in the first place. It makes it harder for me to bus them later if I need to, and looks bad for them if the SK (which I would have at least suspected existed) killed me (no ego I was pretty obvtown).

I'm, uh, not sure how not townreading people is scummy, and actually I backed off my stickmanramp scumread once I realized he was just Cam dicking around. And since he does that as scum too, I didn't see a reason to townread him.

Sorry, just because I could potentially dance my way around the jailkeeper is still no reason why I'd want to let him stay alive when he was confirmed town, and why I'd want to let him get to the stage of the game where he becomes the strongest town role in the game of forum mafia. And it still doesn't change the fact that an orc'd jailkeeper using his role as a hook rather than a doc is 100% the optimal move for town in all scenarios. This is an Oarfish Theory^TM. You might be familiar with those if you are familiar with the forum MotK.

You wouldn't have known that L1F was dying so leaving the Jailkeeper alive to have their reads interfere with townie's night actions is a viable strategy. He only became a threat you couldn't ignore once you were the only one left and clears were beginning to rack up. And this theory isn't on the same level as POSTING IN GREEN TEXT MUST BE FUELING A MAFIA POWER ROLE, this is more like when SB cased kirsche based on the gamestate in Reclass which worked perfectly fine there.

Sure, that's also a plausible situation in the scenario where I am scum. But one question- in this scenario, where exactly did the mafia kill go on N3? Did they... target themselves??? And don't say they targeted Knuckles, when the mod announced in-thread that they might modkill him. And fwiw, you did have a reason to take the NK over Fangirl- he'd been hooked once by NL already, and you might have decided that taking it yourself would be safer (except it wasn't; RIP).

I already explained that either mod error or Kelpie's BPV were the most likely causes of the no kill. I was also voted by someone on Day 3, meaning that I was someone's strongest scumread, whilst L1F had nothing of the sort. It'd make more sense for me to avoid taking the kill in this case as I'd risk L1F and if I was scum I would have had a better chance of carrying the game on even if he DID get roleblocked and susbuquently lynched.

He might have used his drive on N1; this is true. And yeah, you "thought" Kelpie was mafia yesterday and not the SK. But Kelpie flipped SK yesterday. You didn't STILL think Kelpie was mafia when you made that comment. And besides, why would that even make you forget Samael had a vigshot?

I have nothing to do at night so I didn't spend a long time thinking about the night, and the fact that I was so sure that Kelpie was scum over SK was still engraved into my brain. I'm not really sure why I forgot Samael's vig shot though.

The fact that we're only in this position because of 2 modkills and Raido flaking is still fucking with me, honestly.

[Aizen]

@Mods can scumteam no kill?

I really don't have much to say other than I think Kelpie was telling the truth. He sounded like he was planning on something, but knew it wasn't gonna work, so gave up on it

as for a case on SG, I think SG's reaction to my vote was weird, if he was town, he would have said something like, "dude, are you seriously voting me when we don't even know what happened to the kill on N3 and if you have a theory based on why the no kill happened and that explains me as scum, why not out it first?"

well, at least that is what I was expecting from SG when I placed that vote if he was town

[Rain Nijika]

ok LAST THING

scum trying to kill Kelpie only makes sense in the Oarfish Theory^TM world where they also left the confirmed town jailkeeper alive on purpose until MYLO

and also I just remembered that in Villains 2 Norman Bates was the first vote on his buddy with 24 hours left in the phase. I was the third vote, with 36? hours left in the game. 10/10 times that latter scenario is more likely to get your buddy lynched than the former (which most of the time would just be distancing)

They obviously intended to enter it with L1F alive, so the Jailkeeper wouldn't have been a threat to them there. If the mafia had investigative results on a few of myself/Kenji/Minerva, shooting Kelpie to try and knock out an SK candidate so they didn't have to continue after a mislynch is completely reasonable.

Having more time in the day isn't a point in your favor; it gives you more a chance to sneak off of the wagon if you get the chance, and if you don't you've solidified your position as town for a day or so at the very least. You've done it before and if you weren't up against me in in MYLO nobody else would have known.

Responding to Minerva next.

[Rain Nijika]

@Mods can scumteam no kill?

I really don't have much to say other than I think Kelpie was telling the truth. He sounded like he was planning on something, but knew it wasn't gonna work, so gave up on it

as for a case on SG, I think SG's reaction to my vote was weird, if he was town, he would have said something like, "dude, are you seriously voting me when we don't even know what happened to the kill on N3 and if you have a theory based on why the no kill happened and that explains me as scum, why not out it first?"

well, at least that is what I was expecting from SG when I placed that vote if he was town

I didn't respond because I trusted Minerva not to quickhammer and honestly until Deathbound claimed vanilla because he might've had an answer for the unexplained missing kill.

[Aizen]

actually, I should seriously go to sleep, or I will most definitely fail my test tomorrow, hopefully I will be able to read SG's posts later and will be expecting Minx not to hammer

(I am not unvoting cause stuff like internet failure can happen and since the day after that is a Friday, I can't use my library net access)

PEDIT

@SG, that is a lame thing to say when DB had the perfect excuse to claim vanilla and not answer that thanks to Kelpie's claim. If you thought DB was scum, you would have no reason to expect answers from DB.

[All Might]

ok gonna be a little busy today sorry but to me it seems kind of obvious Scum Goon is scum- he's kind of the only option left. There doesn't seem to be any reason for Kelpie to have lied to us- she clearly wanted town to win if she couldn't, since she killed Fangirl knowing he was scum. And I can confirm that her report about me, including my character, is correct (and Minerva is also a proven safeguard).

The point about Kelpie killing Lucyfan is fair, though we can't be that sure since they might not have decided to joint with a side that much until their lynch was imminent.

Cool about the report though.

Yes, I wrongly read the interactons between Death and Fangirl- but his attempts to make it out as me hard defending my buddy have no actual backing behind them. If I wanted to hard defend him D2 because he was my only buddy left, why would I have bussed my first buddy D1? He mentioned about how Death was going to be lynched anyways, but that's not true at all. I was one of the main proponents of the Death wagon D1, and at a time when the wagons were tied and The Wife had unvoted him, I persuaded him to come back onto the wagon when I could easily have swung the wagon onto Stickmanramp. And then, even if Death had gotten lynched D2, he would have been able to use his mass-hook on N1, which would have been 100% worth postponing his lynch for. And like, that's not even accounting that for the first chunk of D1 I was attacking Fangirl, meaning that my goal at the start of the game, as scum, would literally had to have been to bus a buddy D1. Why am I defending the other one on D2 again???

In my eyes, you were almost equal on the wagon, however, Scum Goon did join the wagon on a time where the Red Eye wagon was bigger, and stuck to the wagon when he returned. You joined the wagon at a moment where both wagons were more even.

All the stuff about me telling No Lynch to use his action as a hook instead of a doc being scummy is hilariously bad. Firstly, No Lynch was a confirmed town protective role. He was obviously going to be the mafia's #1 target, and the odds of there being a doctor in addition to a jailkeeper were very low. No Lynch couldn't protect himself by using his role as a doc- the only chance he had of surviving was to use it as a hook and target scum on the kill with it. The idea that I could kill obvtown people by having the protective role target scummy people over them makes no sense because then I could just kill No Lynch (the most obvtown person) and then kill the other obvtown people. Secondly, why on earth would I want to leave a confirmed town JAILKEEPER of all roles alive until lategame? Jailkeeper is hands down the strongest town role in lategame- look how No Lynch just confirmed Kenji as town?

That

Is a good point.

The better option for scum was to try to get No Lynch to focus on the doc portion of their role. They'd get the chance to maybe hook a PR from outside, and could likely kill them that same day (presumably with Deathbound, which was under some suspicion D2).

Also, we already know that the mods made a mistake by telling NL that his action succeeded. It makes perfect sense that they counted scum's kill as being blocked because of it. They couldn't suddenly go "okay now this dude is also dead" in the middle of the phase because that would have been as good as mod-confirming that SG was scum.

Finally, I'm like pretty sure that SG scumslipped- here's another scenario that I thought of. Samael didn't vig Stickmanramp- he drove Stickmanramp with someone obvtown, say No Lynch. The mafia tried killing NL and got redirected to Stickmanramp instead. The mafia would know that their kill went through (just not on the intended target), and it perfectly explains SG's comment.

Remember that if Scum Goon was yesterday's kill, then that could also be the modmistake.

Whether that's more retconnable than outing Scum Goon as scum is arguable, true.

I'd love it that scumslip were true, but right now I should really trust my WITS and PERCEPTION more as a totally professional mafia player.

You guys post too much.

[Rain Nijika]

Let's say that Kelpie is a liar: if we're to assume that, we could even assume it's possible that lying about BPV being shot is their way of telling scum whether they're being truthful to town or not. But still, the burden of proof is on you on why they'd favor one faction over another or neither. Arguing that they're screwing town to spite you is not exactly valid when you're one of two main suspects for the day and might as well be confirming they wanted to screw over the scumteam, not town.

I'm not trying to prove that Kelpie was trying to screw me over, I'm stating trusting a neutral who has nothing to gain by helping us isn't a good idea, yet everyone seems to be doing that.

The bolded is a bad start to a case already, in my opinion, but I digress.

You say they began to defend Lucyfan then, but from rereading their ISO I find that they've only really mentioned them once and let it be, whether that is burdening proof is hard to determine as the rest of the game also gave Lucyfan a free pass then. If anything, it is worth noting that you had basically no interactions with the slot past Day 1, and even during early to mid Day 1 your only relevant interactions with the slot were handwaving it as townie tryhard and then mentioning their death vote as lazy, which is rather curious as you never touch the slot later. Another slot whom receives a similar treatment from you is Death, though this one was defended by analyzing the votes on them as weak, yet voted some time into their wagon as a counter to Red Eye's growing wagon, despite early reads on Red Eye. The vote stuck at that point, but I believe at that time in D1 Deathbound's an Scum Goon's positions were fairly similar. The one difference I see is you townread Lucyfan from the start and then forget about the slot while Deathbound analyzes the slot later.

I'm bringing it up because really it was the main reason I thought Deathbound was town yesterday; you can see how my thoughts progress to that when I had him at top priority at the beginning of the day (when casing Kenji would've also been far easier for me and more likely to succeed.)

And yes, Deathbound only brought up L1F once, but that was all he needed to do in this case in order to avoid obvious buddying which we would've picked up on after one of them died. I didn't mention him much myself because frankly I agreed with his logic because I thought Deathbound was solidly town that day, it was only after we had the Lightkeeper That Crashed The Forums that I became paranoid and looked over Deathbound agai. I also don't remember L1F being particularly active either considering they were forced to sub out.

I don't see my interactions with Death are a point against me. I didn't agree with the earlygame cases because of how weak they were, even if they did hit scum. Once Death became worse in my eyes I changed my opinion accordingly and started to attack him and began to defend both of his counterwagons from attacks, whereas Deathbound kept stickman open as mislynch fodder on the following day.

Process of elimination is still a valid method in mafia lategame. Especially in a game with such ridiculous roles as this.

I know; it's just frustrating when I know that you're wrong and it looks like you're just nodding in agreement with Deathbound rather than trying to take a look at things from my perspective.

I'd also like to say that I was the one who was attempting to make plans yesterday so that nothing went wrong with No Lynch being able to confirm Kenji. If I was scum, would I want their target to remain as ambiguous as possible rather than trying to argue against someone who has been solidly townread for most of the game? And also, do my posts regarding Kelpie look like scum gunning after the neutral, or do they look like a townie's going after their scumread?

[Marisa Kirisame]

Man goddamnit the version of The Broken Eye that I downloaded to read isn't legit; but as soon as I found a good one I'm out until I finish it

AND NOWAI HE GOT UPGRADED TO OBAMA, THE WIFE WILL TELL YOU

lmao I forgot about the green text one; that was hilarious

But do you remember that one about the scum hitting themselves with a post restriction that forced town to lynch between them or No Lynch when broken, and then broke it on purpose for towncred? I think it's closer to that one #TalkingAboutOngoingGames

The fact remains that you haven't answered my point about a confirmed town Jailkeeper using their role as a hooker rather than a doc being objectively better for town. LET'S ASSUME that there is in fact scum intent in arguing for using it as a hooker (lolno). Even then, there's also town intent in doing so, meaning at worst it's null. You're still spinning something into having solely scum motive when this isn't the case, at all.

[Rain Nijika]

@SG, that is a lame thing to say when DB had the perfect excuse to claim vanilla and not answer that thanks to Kelpie's claim. If you thought DB was scum, you would have no reason to expect answers from DB.

I know he had the perfect excuse to claim vanilla, but if he could account for the kill in some way he would be almost certainly be town and while I didn't think it was likely, the possibility was still there.

[Rain Nijika]

But do you remember that one about the scum hitting themselves with a post restriction that forced town to lynch between them or No Lynch when broken, and then broke it on purpose for towncred? I think it's closer to that one #TalkingAboutOngoingGames

The fact remains that you haven't answered my point about a confirmed town Jailkeeper using their role as a hooker rather than a doc being objectively better for town. LET'S ASSUME that there is in fact scum intent in arguing for using it as a hooker (lolno). Even then, there's also town intent in doing so, meaning at worst it's null. You're still spinning something into having solely scum motive when this isn't the case, at all.

How is it closer to the one we're talking about than SB's kirsche case in Reclass? Since I'm clearly a smarter player than Oarfish, wouldn't it be a much closer comparison.

I agree that using it as a hook isn't a bad plan, but point is that you were universally townread (even moreso than me, as today is showing us) so you were unlikely to be nightkilled or roleblocked so there's definite benefit for scum!you as well. I don't think this is out of line in context at all.

[Rain Nijika]

Also, while the Jailkeeper was obvtown if you could take a kill on the Jailkeeper or a kill on a potential informative role, which is the better option? In most cases, the info role is a much better choice, especially as I expect you still have one to find them yourself.

[Rain Nijika]

I believe I've explained everything else I need to about this post, apart from this.

That
Is a good point.
The better option for scum was to try to get No Lynch to focus on the doc portion of their role. They'd get the chance to maybe hook a PR from outside, and could likely kill them that same day (presumably with Deathbound, which was under some suspicion D2).

Encouraging it's use as a doctor would have been scummy had the mafia actually showed any intention of killing No Lynch, as they guarantee a kill on the protective role. Since they didn't do that, it's quite possible that they were hunting for other roles instead and didn't want the jailkeeper to interfere by protecting them.

[Marisa Kirisame]

it's like that Oarfish theory because it hinges on scum undertaking actions that are detrimental to the scumteam, for benefit that's very arguable. Jailkeeper is an info role combined with a protective role, and maybe possibly hitting a town info role while leaving the cleared JK alive to MYLO is pretty similar to Oarfish's theory of Dan maybe getting confirmed town, while also running the risk of GETTING LYNCHED.

Also, you've bussed your buddies just as often as BBM (who most definitely isn't me) has so going in-depth about that One Time he bussed his buddy D1 when you bussed your buddy/buddies all game in MLP and Hard NOCs is... disingenuous? is the best word I can think of.

why aren't you voting me btw?

[All Might]

You guys are wallposting jerks (hi kettle) so I took a small break.

If the mafia know that they can play around a protective role with ease because they're too busy hooking townies (which would've even worked in their favor had Kenji and myself not been Vanilla townies) who they have business nightkilling. The mafia could also have thought that the Serial Killer would take care of the Jailkeeper (like I said earlier) instead of wanting to kill them themselves.

For that to be valid, you'd have to pinpoint No Lynch's townreads to the mafia team and No Lynch's scumreads to town members at the time Deathbound suggested it.

There's also the fact that I have no reason to take the nightkill when Lucifer's role exists, as the mafia would benefit much more from having him take the kill than me.

This is true enough.

I'm not trying to prove that Kelpie was trying to screw me over, I'm stating trusting a neutral who has nothing to gain by helping us isn't a good idea, yet everyone seems to be doing that.

It isn't a good idea fypov. I am still judging on that.

And yes, Deathbound only brought up L1F once, but that was all he needed to do in this case in order to avoid obvious buddying which we would've picked up on after one of them died. I didn't mention him much myself because frankly I agreed with his logic because I thought Deathbound was solidly town that day, it was only after we had the Lightkeeper That Crashed The Forums that I became paranoid and looked over Deathbound agai. I also don't remember L1F being particularly active either considering they were forced to sub out.

Well it clearly didn't work because here we are at MYLO and here you are using his one interaction with Lucyfan against him.

Your point on how you read Lucyfan is taxing for me because it appeals for me to side with you while considering that Deathbound could not have the same stance towards Lucyfan.

I don't see my interactions with Death are a point against me. I didn't agree with the earlygame cases because of how weak they were, even if they did hit scum. Once Death became worse in my eyes I changed my opinion accordingly and started to attack him and began to defend both of his counterwagons from attacks, whereas Deathbound kept stickman open as mislynch fodder on the following day.

Fair, but this is a risky view for me to believe in because that expects you're the perfect townie who protected both town wagons D1 while sticking to the one mafia wagon without knowledge of the scumteam as well. Maybe you're just that good. Whoa.

I know; it's just frustrating when I know that you're wrong and it looks like you're just nodding in agreement with Deathbound rather than trying to take a look at things from my perspective.

I'd also like to say that I was the one who was attempting to make plans yesterday so that nothing went wrong with No Lynch being able to confirm Kenji. If I was scum, would I want their target to remain as ambiguous as possible rather than trying to argue against someone who has been solidly townread for most of the game? And also, do my posts regarding Kelpie look like scum gunning after the neutral, or do they look like a townie's going after their scumread?

Please understand that I have my own perspective and also that I am trying to analyze this game to the best of my knowledge. I am not merely nodding in agreement with Deathbound, especially since he wasn't around by the time we started discussing.

Also thanks for ignoring my later contributions to your plan.

I do think that scum would want to keep the target ambiguous, however. For one, since it was likely that No Lynch was going to jail Kenji but not explicit that way, it was possible for you to argue that Kenji could have not been the one jailed the day after, and push a Kenji lynch.

Considering you haven't stopped to consider what information Kelpie has given to town outside their flip, and how you were so certain they were BS'ing their wincon, I'd say both situations are possible, actually.

Also, while the Jailkeeper was obvtown if you could take a kill on the Jailkeeper or a kill on a potential informative role, which is the better option? In most cases, the info role is a much better choice, especially as I expect you still have one to find them yourself.

I'd say the Jailkeeper, though. With the info role, town loses one mean to catch you, but you risk the chance of being blocked by the jailkeeper *and* being caught by the info role, which is the worst outcome.

Assuming scum would prefer Lucyfan killing, there was always the risk of jailkeeper ruining them (and from D2 interactions scum already knew Lucyfan was jailed once), so I don't see your point here.

[All Might]

OVERALL: I feel that Scum Goon's defense this phase isn't satisfactory, as they keep pressing for me to see things in their eyes. There's a possibility for everything, but fmpov it's clearly safer to follow the information that was given me. I also don't feel as bad about Deathbound's content this phase, though this might be because he's not the one arguing for his life?

All in all, it's certain that the game was in kelpie's hand at this point: the one faction he hurt today is the one that's going to lose.

Moral of the story: Screw ITPs.

[All Might]

Also

##Vote: Scum Goon

im mafia

[Grace]

game over