FE13 Lunatic RNG-abused LTC

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

(and got +2 HP on his level up...?)

Yeah, a handful of characters have over 100% HP growth, so Fred has a very low chance of getting 2 points.

As for Cordelia, in the very least, you'll probably want to keep her and Sumia around as flying ferries. C8 and 9 are a desert chapters (and C8 has 3 villages to visit), so their mobility is probably gonna be pretty helpful. Actually, C10 has some pretty large obstacles and C11 is just plain large, so I bet you'll get some use out of both there too.

Cordelia's Spd isn't too hard to fix thanks to the existence of Gaius, Lon'qu and Gregor. Rig enough Spd levels for her and she could probably transition to using Stahl.

And yes, Chrom auto-marrying anyone will immediately bump them up to S (the very first time this happened to me, Chrobin married based on 1-2 support points—not even a C!). I probably wouldn't be too concerned with more supports, since Chrom does eventually want to hang out with Robin (you'll need the durability and the damage increase from his reliable DSs), since I can't think of too many supports that will be all that important to Chrobin or Frumia once you get Lucina and Morgan. What you might want to do is push for whatever strats will let you soak up some extra EXP for Chrom. Lucina and Morgan's stats are going to be based on both his and Robin's stats (they each add 1/3 of what they have over their class's bases), so the more EXP you can pump into them, the stronger Lucina and Morgan will be.

[Horakthi]

Hey there. This is an another interesting thread from you, but what tools do you use to RNG abuse? It might be helpful for the community if you shared it!

You said the Prologue alone had a 1/20000 chance of succeeding not including good level ups for Robin. I guess you don't just sit there and reset over and over again, right? Do you just edit in good level ups and critical hits with Citra or what?

The safer thing to do is to give Robin the Bronze Sword (so that she has a good dodge chance) and attack the boss from up close, and then get a Dual Strike on one out of two rounds of combat with him. It's just that the RNG happened to favor this alternative approach in my clear.

AFAIK Citra doesn't support save states though, so I'm not sure how you would know this.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Horakthi

[ruadath]

Citra doesn't have save states, but you can use the bookmarks effectively as save states. I tried implementing an alpha-version of actual save states into Citra to speed up the process, but they weren't stable enough to be effective (they crash every now and then)

With regard to the tools I use, it's basically similar to the stuff I use for the RD playthrough: automated scripting for resets. I can't properly share the stuff because it's not packaged properly, and in fact is even worse than the RD stuff because of things like not having save states, not having debug mode for memory watching, among other things. In additional to the packaging stuff, there are also problems with uniformity, I/O, path/OS stuff, administrative privileges, "idiotproofing" (this is actually a technical term lol) etc. that are either too cumbersome for me to deal with or that I don't have the programming expertise to deal with.

I could write at length about these issues but I figure that the majority of people here either wouldn't understand it or wouldn't care; if you (meaning anyone who reads this) want to know more, feel free to PM me and I can give you a very detailed explanation of all of the issues with distributing my "tools," and perhaps you can even give me some ideas to resolve them!

Edited May 18, 2016 by ruadath

[ruadath]

How do you guys feel about using the Renown Energy Drop on Cordelia? I think it will dramatically improve the reliability of the next couple Chapters (along with a couple of Str Tonics and a +5Mt forged Javelin...)

some Speedwings would be even better

Edited May 18, 2016 by ruadath

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

I don't see why not. You've already dipped into Renown and up to 1000 is a pretty common cut-off, which the Energy Drop falls under. And actually, it'd fit under 260 starting Renown that builds as normal too. The only thing I'd advise is to figure out which one you want to go with so that you can determine what other items are available to your strats.

[ruadath]

Thanks for the feedback once again. One more question though: how bad of a thing will it be if I spend all (or most) of my money this chapter? Cordelia is going to get a (+4 Mt, +12 Crit) Javelin forge, which is already 7k gold, and then I need to buy some Javelins and a Hand Axe, and some Tonics, so I'll likely be down to ~1k gold after selling both M bullions.

Should I be more frugal or is this OK? Any estimates on what I'll need to for Rescues/Seals later on in the game, and how much I will get just from drops?

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

You should probably be okay for money. I'm pretty much broke in this early part during my own runs from making expensive forges too. Granted, I'm usually slow playing, but I still can't think of much other than a good forge that would be more valuable to saving turns.

Rescues (1280 per 5 charges) and Master Seals (2500 each) don't come until after beating C12. You'll get a free one in C8 if you can find some free actions to hit that top-right villager. Master Seals kind of drop everywhere, although it might take some effort to snipe some of them, like with the C10 Thief.

There's plenty enough Steel and Silver weapon drops throughout the rest of the game that you'll be unlikely to need to buy much for your DSers. Javelins and Hand Axes can get a bit expensive when used en mass, but the game also isn't too shy with money toward the end of Plegia and beyond. Your next cash drop will be a Bullion M in C10 from a Thief. Then C11's left chest has an L. The boss of C12 also drops an L and Morgan's paralogue has an M in the lower-right chest. C14 doesn't have cash, but there's a few easy chests with a Second Seal and a Recover that can sell for 1k. One of the C15 villagers has a Bullion L, then C16 has an two Ms, one on the boss and one on a Thief. Cash stops raining down for a bit until Walhart coughs up an L in C20. C21 has a few goodies if you get desperate for cash, but they probably aren't worth grabbing. After that, there's no other drop until C24's Bullion M and after that, you're practically done the game, since C25 is an easy one-turn and you can pawn off 90% of your stockpile to fund whatever you end up doing with Endgame.

Beyond that, some characters bring some fairly valuable things you can pawn off if you're not using them. For instance, Beaststones and Dragonstones sell for a pretty penny and I can't see Panne or Nowi getting long-term deployment.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi

[ruadath]

I figured out the location in the memory of battles/victories in this game. FWIW, at the moment we have:

Frederick: 60 kills

Robin: 34 kills

Chrom: 11 kills

[ruadath]

So you can't fly over villages (even just to pass through them) in this game, huh? Back to the drawing board on this one I guess...

[ruadath]

A 2-turn clear for Chapter 8 is plausible, and certainly possible on HM, but I think that Cordelia sucks too much on LM for it to be feasible. I originally thought I had things planned out to work, since if I could fly over the village, then Cordelia only has to fight 5-6 enemies, 3-4 of which are mages (who she can tank hits from with a Res Tonic), which means that her odds of survival are actually reasonable. However, not being able to fly over the village means that I have to aggro the cavs as well, which spells trouble for Cordelia, not only because she can't dodge them properly, but also because she can't double them (without a Speedwing) and therefore has to rely on crits to take care of them...

Wondering if you guys have any ideas on how to fix this? Maybe I should give Cordelia the Speedwing (in addition to the Energy Drop). Then with a +5 Mt forged Javelin and a +5 Mt forged Iron Sword for Gaius everything can be killed with one DS proc, which gives Cordelia odds of roughly 1 in 1500 for killing everything (not counting her own survival). Accounting for her survival (which is pretty bad), probably takes the odds up to ~1 million (maybe a bit worse), which is very difficult but not impossible; thankfully, the rest of the map is pretty reliable, as Robin and Fred can kill everything else without any problems (except I suppose, Fred potentially missing a swordie with his Hand Axe), and Chrom only needs one Killing Edge crit, and has no chance of dying. But this would still probably take a while to get done (if at all), and doesn't account for level ups, so if you guys have ideas to make the clear more reliable somehow, I'd love to hear them.

EDIT: Another possible method of dealing with this would be to rig a "surge" bonus for Cordelia in Spd/Def or something like that in the barracks, though I'm not sure I want to do that...

Edited May 19, 2016 by ruadath

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Who is currently going where on the map?

It's a shame Cordelia needs Gaius's +1 Move (I'm assuming you're going for the Master Seal villager with her), because otherwise, Panne provides +3 Str and Spd (compared to Gaius's +2 Spd), while having comparable DS power. Lon'qu would provide +5 Spd and with the C7 Steel Sword forged to +3 Mt, he'd have the same power.

[ruadath]

It's a shame Cordelia needs Gaius's +1 Move (I'm assuming you're going for the Master Seal villager with her), because otherwise, Panne provides +3 Str and Spd (compared to Gaius's +2 Spd), while having comparable DS power. Lon'qu would provide +5 Spd and with the C7 Steel Sword forged to +3 Mt, he'd have the same power.

I know right? it's quite upsetting lol.

http://kamikouryaku.com/kakusei/?8%E7%AB%A0%20%E9%82%AA%E7%AB%9C%E3%81%AE%E3%81%97%E3%82%82%E3%81%B9%20%E3%83%AB%E3%83%8A%E3%83%86%E3%82%A3%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF

Frederick!Robin moves south to "rescue-chain" Robin further south through Gregor and Nowi. This puts her in range to attack the boss on PP2 (with Nowi for support) while Gregor!Frederick cleans up the eastern side of the map. Combined, those two teams easily take care of enemies 12-23 on that map.

Chrom and Sumia fly toward the NE village and kill the merc (#2) with a crit (switch to Chrom). They actually wont make it to the village after switching to Chrom, but that's OK because Ricken can run there in 2 turns and tank a hit from the Nos mage; in fact, Ricken deals enough damage on the counter that Chrom can reliably kill the mage (Falchion double, no crits) on turn 2 PP! Panne and Lonqu take care of the fighter (#1)

That leaves enemies 4-11 for Cordelia to deal with as she flies to the Master Seal village. If she could fly over the village, the 2 cavs (who she can't double) would get aggrod toward Chrom and Frederick, respectively, but since she has to fly east of it (and thus in their range) they attack her, which is really problematic not only because of dodging trouble, but the fact that she can't double them, so she has no choice but to crit...

[ruadath]

One possible alternative that might work is to replace Gaius with Fred as Cordelia's problem (makes her Spd worse but gives her effective DS as compensation, and greatly increases odds of survival). The Robin needs Gaius to give her a move boost, but Gaius!Gregor can't do Fred's job (at least I don't think so, I haven't checked), so we'll have to have Sumia!Chrom fly down and take care of stuff there. I haven't done any calculations regarding whether or not this improves the odds (because while Cordelia's stuff becomes far more reliable, Chrom and Sumia aren't exactly tanks themselves, and Panne!Lonqu now has to do some annoying stuff), but I expect it will probably be at least slightly better.

Whether or not this will make a difference (or even works at all) remains to be seen (feel free to do some calculations for me, I probably won't for a few days because I have a busy weekend), but (ignoring RNG stuff) it might be less optimal as a clear because it hinders Fred and Cordelia's EXP gain (and I imagine the latter may be especially important for Chapter 9). On the other hand, if we are going to bench those guys anyway, then maybe it's a good thing that Chrom gets a few additional kills.

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Hmmm, looking at your plan, you've got 9 of your 10 deployment slots in use. If the 10th slot isn't dedicated to anyone in particular, I might have an alternative for your right side that can help make Cordelia's odds a bit better, although with the odds required there, I'm not sure if it improves the strat's overall probability.

For this, we need to bust out the Beast Killer from Renown and Miriel with a Thunder tome (or Wind and Mag Tonic). Chrom pairs with Ricken and Miriel pairs with Sumia. Sumia gets the Beast Killer and a Str Tonic. Ricken attacks #2 from two tiles to the left, which Chrom must both DS and crit on (although, a hit, DS, hit, DS may work if the fight goes to EP, but then that puts Ricken in danger of dying to the Dark Mage or being doubled by the Myrm; also, just looked back on your plan and does Chrom have the Killing Edge? It'd be preferred here, although the Rapier might be okay...). Sumia goes to the right of #7 and attacks with the Beast Killer. Miriel needs to DS and it'll be just enough damage for a kill. This takes some pressure off of Cordelia and because of where Cordelia is going to be, she'll body block #6 from targeting Sumia. Now, I'm not entirely sure that the AI will do this, but since Ricken has lower Res, the Dark Mage should target him over Sumia. If he goes after Sumia instead, the strat still works, but the odds are much worse. Basically, anywhere the Dark Mage attacks Sumia or Ricken from puts him 2 tiles away from Ricken. What this allows is for Sumia to fly beside Ricken, transfer for Chrom, then swap and attack the Dark Mage in melee, which also leaves Ricken's turn available to reach the village. If he attacked Ricken, then you have your counterattack that Chrom can take advantage of with the Falchion double. Otherwise, Sumia might need to DS or Chrom might need a crit. Another thing that might happen if the Dark Mage attacks Ricken is a Chrom DS crit. The odds of this definitely aren't much better than Cordelia landing her Javelin crit. However, should it actually happen, that frees up Sumia's turn. If Cordelia happened to fail to kill the Cavalier, Sumia can fly in to Beast Killer it. Granted, the downside to this is suddenly Cordelia and Chrom are out some EXP (also, with the way you described your tools, dealing with these fringe case might not be worth the effort?). With DF!Robin coming into play next chapter, this may be negligible, though.

[ruadath]

This is an awesome idea! I haven't done any math on this whatsoever, but can I get rid of the Miriel DS by giving Sumia a pair up like Vaike, a Str Tonic, and possibly forging the Beast Killer?

Alternatively, since the village is only 15 and not 16 spaces away, perhaps I can have Sumia's pair up partner be Gaius; then Cordelia can take Panne for the Str/Spd bonus (I think with a maxed forged Javelin this lets her reliably ORKO the mages!), and Sumia can transfer Gaius over on the next turn (although this assumes that Chrom's DS crit ends up working out in our favor). I'll have to think on this

does Chrom have the Killing Edge? It'd be preferred here, although the Rapier might be okay... the Dark Mage should target him over Sumia.

yes and yes to both of these.

(also, with the way you described your tools, dealing with these fringe case might not be worth the effort?). With DF!Robin coming into play next chapter, this may be negligible, though.

Maybe, we'll see. I generally run the thing in phases, so I get a bunch of bookmarks at the end of turn 1, and then proceed to do turn 2, etc. It probably won't be too much effort to automatically sort these into the two cases depending on whether or not the mage died, but even if it is I'll deal with that stuff on my end.

Really appreciate your help on this. There was one last potential issue with this strat that I didn't mention last time (I had not and still haven't investigated it enough). The myrmidon #12 is blocking Robin's path to the boss. Thankfully, Robin gets dropped far enough south that she aggros him on the enemy phase. However, Gregor (one space north of Robin) is in range on the dark mage (#11) and he can attack from either west or south of Robin. If he attacks from the south, it blocks the myrmidon's path to Robin, and the clear doesn't work, but if he attacks from the west everything is fine.

From black box testing (i.e. moving only Robin and Fred, and not the rest of the team), the square from which he attacks seems to be random. However, I am slightly concerned (have not done any testing) that Cordelia's position will make the mage prefer the south spot since I think the west spot is in her range, while the south spot is not. If you have any idea how the AI works here, I'd be glad to know. I should note that with the new strategy you have given me, the south spot is now in range of Sumia, so hopefully it will just be random again.

Edited May 20, 2016 by ruadath

[Horakthi]

Citra doesn't have save states, but you can use the bookmarks effectively as save states. I tried implementing an alpha-version of actual save states into Citra to speed up the process, but they weren't stable enough to be effective (they crash every now and then)

With regard to the tools I use, it's basically similar to the stuff I use for the RD playthrough: automated scripting for resets. I can't properly share the stuff because it's not packaged properly, and in fact is even worse than the RD stuff because of things like not having save states, not having debug mode for memory watching, among other things. In additional to the packaging stuff, there are also problems with uniformity, I/O, path/OS stuff, administrative privileges, "idiotproofing" (this is actually a technical term lol) etc. that are either too cumbersome for me to deal with or that I don't have the programming expertise to deal with.

I could write at length about these issues but I figure that the majority of people here either wouldn't understand it or wouldn't care; if you (meaning anyone who reads this) want to know more, feel free to PM me and I can give you a very detailed explanation of all of the issues with distributing my "tools," and perhaps you can even give me some ideas to resolve them!

How about showing us a printscreen of your tool in use? Then we could get a better idea of how it works.

I generally run the thing in phases, so I get a bunch of bookmarks at the end of turn 1, and then proceed to do turn 2, etc

Bookmarks would only help you if RNs changed every bookmark. They don't. They remain the same every time you load the map. Funnily enough, no one knows how to burn RNs in Awakening. I just googled this: http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49848

So, literally, bookmarking is worthless for the tool you mentioned which has "automated resetting." If you keep resetting a bookmark that's not going to help you because each bookmark in Awakening has the same RNs. Unlike in Radiant Dawn. I highly doubt that you would know how the RN system in Awakening works for bookmark abuse given that no one else has ever figured it out and AFAIK you have never played this game prior to this run.

Tl;dr bookmarking in Awakening keeps the same RNs so you cannot use your "automated resetting tool" for it.

Edited May 20, 2016 by Horakthi

[ruadath]

Can't respond in full detail right now (will edit soon) as I'm trying to get something done within the hour, but:

Bookmarks would only help you if RNs changed every bookmark. They don't. They remain the same every time you load the map. Funnily enough, no one knows how to burn RNs in Awakening. I just googled this: http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=49848

You're misunderstanding what I'm saying. It's pointless and inefficient (and probably not even possible) to have a script run the whole map at once if the strat has a reasonably likely chance of failing on the first turn. Thus the more sensible thing to do is to run the turn 1 (or whatever) script many times, generate a ton of bookmarks at the start of turn 2 (where the first turn has been cleared successfully), and then iterate from there.

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Hmmm, well, with Vaike and a Str Tonic, Sumia has 39 effective Attack, which does 31/36 to the Cavalier. To make up the extra distance, you'd have to forge the Beast Killer twice. That's gonna run you 2475 gold, so if you can find the funds somewhere, I guess it would work.

As for the AI, I believe it's not sophisticated enough to avoid the ranges of player attacks. Generally speaking the AI only cares about moving its full distance (if possible) or getting the maximum amount of units to attack without backpedaling a unit (unless backpedaling allows another unit to go for a killing blow). Whenever there are multiple tiles that allow the same result, the AI tends to be somewhat random. That is, they seem to have a preference for one tile over another for seemingly no reason and then will swap for seemingly no other reason. For a good example of where this happens, see my typical Prologue clear, where I get into the water against the first wave and the Myrm body blocks the Barb from attacking. The Barb will prefer to go to move to the left of the Myrm, but every so often, he'll decide he wants to move above the Myrm instead. Oh, there is one other thing the AI is smart enough to do, though. If it can attack from a tile that will also allow it to threaten attack on other player units on the following EP, it will usually prefer that tile.

So long story short, the Dark Mage is probably going to have a preferred tile for no discernible reason and it's entirely possible that that tile is the south tile. If it does prefer the southern tile, what you might be able to do to try to compensate is give Gregor the Renown Levin Sword as he's transfer-dropping Robin. Now, this whole strategy hinges on the game's adjacent pair system picking Robin over Nowi to be Gregor's partner (normally, the game picks the support with the highest rank, but Gregor is going to have no points with either unit at this point, so I don't know what it's going to do), but a Str Tonic and Iron Lance puts Robin at 30 Attack. If she DSs, that's 24/36 damage. Solidarity gives Gregor a straight 10% crit chance with his 4 damage (since 14 Skl versus 7 Luk), which means that can score an exact kill. In addition, Robin has a 4% chance to just plain murder the DM. It's not a very good chance, but if the DM is ruining too many bookmarks with its preference, this may be something worth trying.

[ruadath]

Sorry, busy day yesterday. Here's what I'm currently thinking:

Lissa!Chrom goes for fighter #1 on the north end with a Steel Sword. He won't kill him, but I think he 3HKO's, has like a 50% dodge chance, and can tank a hit. Lonqu!Ricken with the Killing Edge takes care of the myrmidon in the manner you described; on the enemy phase, if the Nos mage goes for the person with least resistance, as you said, he should go for Chrom. Then when Ricken visits the village, if we load up his inventory he can convoy Lonqu's Killing Edge, which Chrom can then use to murder the mage (and then finish the fighter without a crit on the EP).

Gaius!Sumia with a +3 Mt Beast Killer forge takes out the cav (without a DS), while Panne!Cordelia with a +5 Mt Javelin goes to the good spot, where she reliably kills the mages, and takes out the fighter and other cav with a Panne DS. Sumia can transfer Gaius over on turn 2, and then Cordelia can go visit the Master Seal village; IIRC, with a +3 Mt Iron Sword forge on Gaius (and a Str proc for Cordelia on the level she gets on the first turn), she can kill the strongest enemies there with a single DS from Gaius.

and then Robin and Fred do the usual stuff. I'll have a calculation of the odds done at some point today, which I imagine are now significantly better, but I don't plan to start running this until at least after the weekend. Let me know if I'm overlooking something.

EDIT: A very rough estimate shows that the total odds for the stuff that Robin and Fred don't do is roughly 1 million, which is a significant improvement over what I had before (where it was over 1 million only for Cordelia's stuff), if necessary I might be able to improve this further by crit-forging Cordelia's Javelin, although I think the difference is marginal (it's only 9% crit) and I probably don't have enough money to do it regardless if I am forging up the Beast Killer and the Iron Sword.

Edited May 21, 2016 by ruadath

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

The plan looks pretty good. There's just one little hitch, but I don't think there's much that can be done aside from hoping for good RNG. It's possible for the Fighters to spawn with HP+5 (bringing them up to 44). This should matter for Chrom, since his three attacks are going to be way overkill, even without a crit. It shouldn't matter for Robin with the south-most Fighter too, since she's already only doing 2x19 after WTD, so she'll need that Nowi DS or a crit, regardless (you could fix this one here in the non-HP+5 case by forging a +1 Mt Javelin). The iffiest case is going to be Cordelia. You can attack the closest Fighter to her on the first turn, so that's a non-issue. She has no such benefit for the one beside the village, though and since 1 DS would normally kill him exactly, that puts you 5 HP short of the kill. There's not going to be any chance for a crit without the forge, so Gaius is going to have to DS twice. I don't see the case coming up too often because it's two very specific Fighters getting a specific skill (when they could easily have just Zeal or even nothing), but it's something to keep in mind.

[ruadath]

Thanks for the info. I think I was just planning on Robin getting a Str proc from killing something before the fighter attacked her. One contingency plan for something else I just thought of (that improves the odds a little bit):

It's OK if Cordelia doesn't kill the cav that attacks her on the first turn (i.e. if Panne doesn't proc a DS), because after transferring Gaius to Cordelia, Sumia can switch to Panne who can deal the finishing blow on the EP then if necessary (she can tank a hit).

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

The Cav that attacks Cordelia from below? Wouldn't that leave Cordelia body blocked from reaching the village, even with 8 Move?

I might have a solution for that, though. If Panne fails to DS, Cordelia still doubles with 21 Attack, doing 2x13, and leaving the Cav with 10 HP. If Sumia gains Spd on her level from the kill on the eastern Cav (70%), taking Panne will put her at enough Spd to double the other Cav. A non-forged Javelin puts her at 13 Attack after Panne's Str bonus, which lets Sumia clean up the Cav for 2x5. Even if she doesn't proc Spd, though, there's still a chance for Panne to DS off of her single attack.

[ruadath]

Oh right, forgot about that. Also, it's 24 Atk for Cordelia (I think you forgot to incorporate Panne's Str Bonus), so just one Javelin hit from Sumia will suffice.

Edited May 22, 2016 by ruadath

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Nah, it's the Energy Drop I forgot to account for there and then discounted the Str level up because it was just the first turn, but with the turn order as it is, I guess she'll probably get just enough EXP to level up before the Cav attacks. So even if Cordelia doesn't gain Str, Sumia being able to double would cover the 6 remaining HP. I imagine you'll probably want the Str level for future chapters, though, since there might be little things she'll need to cover that Robin and Fred will be too busy for.

[ruadath]

This discussion is becoming rather pointless lol, but I think what you actually might have forgot in that case is Cordelia's weapon rank bonus. She doesn't get enough EXP before the cav (33 from each kill)

9 (Base Str) + 2 (Energy Drop) + 2 (Tonic) + 1 (Weapon Rank) + 7 (+5 Mt Javelin) + 3 (Panne) = 24 Atk

24 is an important number, because then 24-6=18, which means she 2HKOs the Dark Mages and can thus reliably ORKO them without any reliance on DS.