Ensemble Mafia - N5

[Elemina]

1. What scum mate would attack Yedi before anyone else even speaks up? Why not just push Ryker!scum with Yedi and others and kill him at night? I want you to think more about the why instead of looking at the surface. Why are we letting slots like Spinal just... lurk. He said he'd post Monday but hasn't posted at all. This is why he's in my scumlist now.

2. Why do you believe Yedi is town? Why do you consider his claim 'amazing'?

[Elemina]

I'm still not lynching Ryker. If he flips town I'm not even going to try any further. We should just give up.

[Elemina]

Also, don't yell at Irony.

[Kriemhild]

Anyway, I've had concerns with Ryker/Blitz/Refa. Elie is still my strongest scumread, but Yedi coming in without playing at all and claiming a guilty on Ryker, forces me to choose between Ryker and Yedi. Spinal isn't even playing. I have already had concerns with Yedi all game. Yet you believe %100 that Yedi is not lying here. Think of it like this.

First of all, I don't believe it's 100%; it's generally impossible for players to have 100% confidence in anything in Mafia.

ScumYedi is about to get lynched today, so best to claim guilty today on town to extend his life for one extra day. You are saying "Hey Yedi if you are lying to us, you'll get lynched tomorrow, Ok you hear?" It shows that you are taking his result at face value. Of course it should go without saying that he should be auto-lynched if Ryker flips town. Getting a 1v1 when you/elie/me were leaning towards his lynch today.

Indeed, ScumYedi has good motivation to claim at this point, since it gives him a chance to survive one more day while taking Ryker down first. He has nothing to lose since he was likely getting lynched anyway. I do not deny the incentive that ScumYedi would have at pulling this.

Here's what I want to know. I want you to tell me how his play lines up with his role. Why would he use his cop last night instead of before his track? Why not wait a bit to use the track last, since when there are less people and possibly scum flipped (yet that didn't happen, but we can't know for sure until lynch happens) track is most beneficial. (Example, if there is only one scum left tracking is more of a guilty/clear)

Saving the investigation for N3 is pretty silly, definitely. But note that sub-optimal play =/= scum intent. TownYedi may have made terrible decisions with his actions, which is very possible for any player. ScumYedi, on the other hand, fabricated a role with crappy action decisions, which is a very rare occurrence. Scum would generally try to make their false claims more credible. What Yedi claimed is not something that I think is likely to come from a deceiving scum.

1. What scum mate would attack Yedi before anyone else even speaks up? Why not just push Ryker!scum with Yedi and others and kill him at night? I want you to think more about the why instead of looking at the surface.

Is this about my scumread on you...? About Ryker's reaction to Yedi...? I'm confused at what you're asking. I can answer if it's the former but I don't want to make incorrect assumptions.

Why are we letting slots like Spinal just... lurk. He said he'd post Monday but hasn't posted at all. This is why he's in my scumlist now.

We aren't. Well, I'm not, anyway; I want to hear from Spinal, YOLO, and SB before I place my vote. My lynching preference is already clear enough for anybody who wants to know where I stand.

2. Why do you believe Yedi is town? Why do you consider his claim 'amazing'?

I Ctrl-F'd "amazing" and it was referring to the lynch target, not the claim, so please don't put false words in my mouth. I do believe that Yedi is Town, because his claim is really believable and does not sound like a scum role (scum never get alignment cops, especially if there's no hostile third-party), so I concluded that he is likely to be Town.

I'm still not lynching Ryker. If he flips town I'm not even going to try any further. We should just give up.

Why would you stop trying...? It's not an auto-loss if we lynch Ryker. We're not in MYLO/LYLO. I suppose it makes sense to be frustrated that only two people aren't agreeing with you while they still acknowledge your posts and reply to you rationally, but I think you should keep trying even if TownRyker gets lynched.

Also, don't yell at Irony.

Sorry, my bad, I should be yelling at you for taking advantage of her inexperience to pressure into making a fullclaim while it was very clear that there was no consensus on a massclaim (only two people wanted the massclaim over two others who refused it), your demand had no written justification, and you did not even respond to her full claim beyond laughing at the flavor. STOP BULLYING IRONY!

[Kriemhild]

Also, I'm deliberately avoiding to elaborate on certain details of my reasoning because I do want to hear from other players (Spinal, YOLO, SB). I'm not voting for Ryker until I explain those.

[Kriemhild]

I gotta go now so I'll just respond to the following quote under the assumption that it was referring to my scumread on Elemina:

1. What scum mate would attack Yedi before anyone else even speaks up? Why not just push Ryker!scum with Yedi and others and kill him at night? I want you to think more about the why instead of looking at the surface.

First of all, you did not attack Yedi before anyone else spoke up. Elieson was the first person to respond and decided to buy Yedi's claim after receiving some clarification from him. You did not post at all after Yedi's claim until after Ryker claimed. At that point, you could have figured that with the first response (Elieson) being favored towards Yedi, there would be a high probability of Ryker being lynched unless somebody opposed it early on. Not knowing whether any Townies would initiate anti-Yedi sentiments after this point, you decided to defend Ryker and hopefully incite some other Townies to do the same. Note, I don't know whether you're definitively scum, but I can certainly see scum doing what you did.

Why not push ScumRyker? First of all, if you're the one making this argument, then it becomes a lot less credible, because there is scum benefit if you were left off the hook if this argument of yours is accepted. There is possible scum intent in your actions, and asking us to WIFOM you is not a good defense.

I'm not just looking at the surface of what looks good and what looks bad. All of my cases so far were focused on seeking out scum intent, which is the "why" that I agree is really important. At the same time, however, I am being open-minded by trying to consider multiple possibilities. IF you are Town, and even if Ryker is also Town, your outright refusal to even consider the possibility of TownYedi and to adamantly defend Ryker with the only basis being along the lines of "Yedi looks worse", is really detrimental to productive scumhunting. It goes back to what I said before about deciding to target X and then trying to find reasons to justify targeting X.

[Ryker]

Irony. Do me a favor.

I am going to flip town, but I am probably Ky going to get lynched becahse if Yedi's claim. Can you lynch Yedi, YOLO, and Rainbow for me? That's my current scum team. I'll update the list for you before the day ends.

[Ryker]

##Vote Yedi

[Irony]

I don't know if I'll be able to lynch all of those people of my own, but if you do flip Ensemble I will try (and I say that, as I think you are in the Mafia, but I digress). Though my priority will be YOLOSWAG, as that is the only person whom we both read as being Mafia. My other pick is Emelina.

[yedi]

@elemina

Yeah I haven't been active but that doesn't mean my claim is false.

For now, I'm thinking the scum team is Ryker, YOLO, and....Idk about the third one. It's such a toss up right now. I will say that Ryker's attitude towards YOLO/Rainbow def implies at least one scum between them.

[Kriemhild]

For those of you who are inclined towards believing Ryker and thus, believing that Yedi is lying scum, please take a moment to think about how realistic the scenario of ScumYedi could be. In particular:

[spoiler=Why ScumYedi is not likely to be a thing]- Yedi roleclaimed an investigative role. This is already quite risky for a small game, since it could be disputed that having TWO Town investigative roles is too overpowered when there are only three scum. If just one other player counterclaimed an investigative role, Yedi's roleclaim would be very suspicious. Of course, this doesn't mean that ScumYedi wouldn't roleclaim an investigative role, until you consider that...

- ...Yedi didn't just claim a single ability. He claimed to have multiple investigative abilities. Now, for example, if Yedi claimed say, Tracker, and someone else claimed Watcher, some players MIGHT think it's possible for both to be Town in a 13-player game. But if Yedi claimed to have a tracking ability while someone else claimed Tracker, that would be super suspicious. But Yedi claimed multiple abilities, including tracking and alignment-check, which means any counterclaims on either of those abilities would make Yedi's claim really fishy. Plus, Yedi might have disclosed his unused abilities, making it even more dangerous for Yedi's claim.

Such counterclaims would turn Yedi's gambit into a 1vs2, which is terrible for scumYedi who is on the 1 side, since it would clear TWO Townies if Yedi was lynched, and still clear one Townie if the other Townie in the 1vs2 was lynched.

- Could ScumYedi have done it more safely? Certainly. If it was only an Alignment Check that incriminated Ryker, why not claim Alignment Cop? That way, if anybody else claimed a different investigative role, he could propose that there might be two investigative roles, and reduce the suspicion. Two investigative roles might still seem fishy, but it's more believable if the abilities don't clash. Note that Alignment Cop is ridiculously easy for Mafia to claim, since they already know who is Town and Mafia and could thus easily present perfectly accurate results if they wanted to.

- And in fact, if ScumYedi pulled this gambit to save his skin, why turn it into a 1v1? Nobody ever claimed an investigative role so far in this game. All he needs to do is claim investigative results that don't incriminate anyone else. If nobody else claims an investigative role, he'd have a much better chance of surviving today because we would be hesitant about lynching the ONLY investigative role. Heck, he might even survive tomorrow then, since there's no 1v1 that exposes him as scum. Of course, if somebody else does counterclaim an investigative role, then he'd look suspicious, but that would not be any worse than the safer scenarios of not turning it into a 1v1.

- There is also the fact that even after Yedi claimed, nobody has counterclaimed an investigative role. In fact, the only people doubting Yedi are players who claimed non-investigative roles so it's not even the case that the investigative roles are expressing disapproval of Yedi without counterclaiming.

Of course, it could be that one of YOLO/Spinal/SB might be a Townie with an investigative role that we didn't hear from yet. But even if that's the case, the Mafia would have to have been incredibly lucky for it to turn out this way. If that investigative Townie talked, or if me/Elieson was investigative, then Yedi's gambit would have been suicidal.

[spoiler=Well, what if there are NO investigative roles at all in the Town side? (spoilered because I think it's a dumb suggestion but I'll address it anyway)]First of all, it would be a terrible setup for Town to have no investigative roles whatsoever, because that would be heavily scum-favored due to Town being uninformed as hell. It also renders Mechanics Rule #9 as irrelevant, which raises the question of why it's even there. The mod would be trolling the Town too hard. And finally, even if this was the case, it doesn't change the fact that ScumYedi's claim would be incredibly stupid and risky, because the Mafia wouldn't KNOW that there are no Town investigative roles. They only had three nights of rolecop results so they're definitely unaware of plenty of Town roles that could be investigative. So they still wouldn't have tried to pull this off regardless.

[spoiler=For those who haven't actually read the above points thoroughly but might argue that my points could be a WIFOM to make Yedi cleared]Basically, it's not a WIFOM-able defense because the gambit breaks if any investigative Town counterclaims. Mafia can NOT possibly guarantee that this would be the case and so, they'd have screwed themselves over and no WIFOM is going to change the fact that they claimed an investigative role that clashes with a counterclaim.

Like sure, I could understand that if D4 were claim-free, then some players (like myself even) seem like they would perceive Yedi as being worse than Ryker. But are those perceptions anywhere near strong enough to topple the reasoning I presented above? Those perceptions are based on very subjective posts where players try to discuss their thoughts and opinions as such, whereas Yedi's clam is an objective piece of data that can be analyzed directly.

It's also worth noting that the only player (besides Ryker) who is defending Ryker is Elemina, whose last mention of Ryker prior to Yedi's clam was a gut scumread on Ryker. So even if she did think Yedi was worse, I certainly don't think her perception of TownRyker-ScumYedi is anywhere near strong enough to negate my reasoning for TownYedi-ScumRyker. Elemina, if you would like to challenge that, then go right ahead.

(I plan to post two more walls of texts btw, sorry)

[Kriemhild]

Basically, if my previous post isn't convincing enough, here's even more reason to lynch Ryker:

[spoiler=MinMaxRegret]Basically, let's analyze the worst-case scenario with each decision.

Common Points for lynching either one that turns out to be Town

Cons

- we lose a Townie, that's always bad

- we lose their role, but tbh if they were Town and they survived, then they likely wouldn't survive tonight regardless.

Pros

- The one we don't lynch is lying scum and we lynch them.

Lynching Ryker

Cons

- can't think of any that doesn't apply to Yedi's case too

Pros

- If Yedi is not investigative Town, then we likely still have an investigative Town role alive somewhere. So even though we just lynched TownRyker, we'd probably still have a good strong chance of eliminating the rest of the Mafia.

Lynching Yedi

Cons

- we lose Yedi's role. If the game was balanced, then losing our investigative role would be a huge blow to the Town, and even though we just lynched Ryker, we'd be in terrible shape to weed out the rest of the Mafia. Note that this doesn't apply to Ryker's case because a 1-shot Omniguard isn't anywhere near as significant a component wrt Town's ability strength.

Pros

- If Ryker is not a 1-shot Doc+Safeguard, then... there's not much assurance about whether we have any living useful substitutes because Kirsche already flipped Doc

- nope, can't think of anything that doesn't apply to Ryker's case

Feel free to point out stuff I may have overlooked, but from what I can see, if we focus on the objective data (roles, claims, etc), then lynching Ryker is a better choice than lynching Yedi, even if you felt that Ryker looked better than Yedi based on subjective behavioral analyses. Even with subjective data taken into account, I have yet to see anybody except Elemina feel strongly about Ryker being much more Townish than Yedi.

[Kriemhild]

This last wall of text is directed to Elemina (but others may be interested in reading it regardless):

[spoiler=Elemina]- Why are you refusing to consider the possibility of ScumRyker + TownYedi? Why are you so adamant that Ryker is Town and Yedi is scum? Did your past scumreads of Ryker indicate that Ryker could only be scum if Yedi was scum? From my readthrough, they did not, so why does TownYedi + ScumRyker seem to be an impossibility in your head???

- If you are Town, then vote for Ryker. I've already explained why lynching Ryker is the best choice for us today. If you disagree with my two previous posts, then feel free to challenge them. HOWEVER, please ask yourself whether your arguments would be convincing to other Townies besides yourself. If that is not likely, then you will NOT be able to get Yedi lynched today. Even if you think Yedi is more likely to be scum, we both know that lynching Ryker would be better than No Lynch. So with a YediLynch being out of question, it is in Town's best interests to lynch Ryker as opposed to No Lynching (and giving Mafia a free nightkill before we continue this Ryker vs Yedi debate again tomorrow).

- STOP. THIS. Stop giving up. If you are Townie and you fail to convince us that Ryker is Town, then okay, you can give us a big fat "I told you so", but don't just freaking give up. It's not LYLO/MYLO, the game will not be over yet. We can still continue playing and we can win this. If you give up, you'll be hurting the entire Town. Don't do that.

- In fact, that post feels a lot like a desperate plea to not lynch Ryker, with you declaring that you'll outright give up if we do so. I don't know if you have a fan club following you here, but don't use your popularity to appeal to emotion. Use clear rational logic to express your points instead. Appealing to emotion is something I consider to be more likely to be scummy than not. So stop saying stuff like this if you're Town.

[Kriemhild]

Everybody, please vote for Ryker. Even if you think Yedi is more likely to be scum, we're not likely to get five votes on him at this point, and lynching Ryker > No Lynch.

Unless of course, you have reason to believe that Ryker is 100% confirmed town, which I highly doubt is the case, but please explain yourself if you feel that way.

[Kriemhild]

There was more I wanted to write, but I'm just really tired at this point, sorry. It's an hour past my bedtime and I have to go to the Workshop tomorrow too.

[Kriemhild]

Spinal get over here and vote Ryker. You were adamant about lynching him since D1, now we can finally do it.

[Irony]

I like Rainbow's reasoning. I'm sorry, Ryker. Please forgive me. You're cool, but I think you are working with the Mafia.

Vote:Ryker

[Ryker]

Unvote please. You can revote, but give me time to post things for after I'm dead.

Thanks.

[Kriemhild]

I haven't voted yet, so you're not going to accidentally get hammered

[Kriemhild]

(but please be quick about it because I need to sleep)

[Ryker]

Also, if they have three nights of a rolecop, they can have checked the entire game save one persone if Elemina and Irony aren't scum. Both have claimed. Yedi's head was on the chopping block. Acceptable trade if he can get it.

The mod meta about the rules is discussion of a copy pasted ruleset. look at the last game I could find by this host: http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=53097

Claiming an investigative role with no bingo is a strategy he could've employed. If you're going to claim, this one is fine, especially if they think they can get another lynch on someone who's town after Yedi gets revenge lynched (not hard to do with dwindling town players and a weak slot like Irony, no offense).

I think Rainbow is likely scum. That analysis is full of holes.

[Ryker]

And we SURE AS HELL, ought not be lynching me or putting me to L-1 until Spinal and SB (or the SB replacement) have said something.

[Ryker]

At the end of the Day, Elemina is not scum. Irony do not vote him under any circumstances.

Irony is not scum, Elemina do not vote her under any circumstances.

I think that SB is probably not scum because the scum team is making its move toward a victory condition right now and I don't think they do that a man down.

I think Ken is PROOOOOOOOOOOOBABLY not scum or he'd be here doing something by now by the same token.

Pretty sure YOLO is actively not playing intentionally. I think he is scum.

Yedi is 100% scum. Lynch him immediately tomorrow.

Rainbow is my pick for the third scummer. His analysis of both GP's and Yedi's claim are full of holes. So is the analysis of the Kirsche flip and what that means for his alignment. PLEASE DO NOT LISTEN TO THIS SLOT IN THE FUTURE, IRONY!!!

Elie is the safety net I have at the moment, but I think he's probably town. Unsure. His wagon hop-on is far better than Rainbow's.

Lynch Yedi tomorrow. Rainbow the next day. Then lynch YOLO, but have Irony block Elie. If they kill Irony beforehand, then it's up to whoever's left between Spinal, Elemina, and whoever replaced the SB slot to figure out which of them is scum (my vote is for YOLO).

[Ryker]

Fuck, we lose if SB isn't replaced and I get lynched. Either the mod kill or the lack of a player prevents us from attaining majority in LyLo.

[Ryker]

Regardless, I ask only we await a possible counterclaim instead of rushing the lynch (THIS MEANS ME NOT BEING AT L-1 ELIE AND IRONY). i don't want to get hammered by YOLO before people have a chance to CC.