Ensemble Mafia - N5

[Ryker]

And with that, I'm probably, blessedly, dead. Hallelujah, I don't have to keep up anymore.

[Kriemhild]

Also, if they have three nights of a rolecop, they can have checked the entire game save one persone if Elemina and Irony aren't scum. Both have claimed. Yedi's head was on the chopping block. Acceptable trade if he can get it.

What's with you and Elemina posting ambiguous stuff? Do you mean they checked the entire game and found an investigative role? If they did, then it would be simple for Yedi to claim his role as being of a different investigative role than the one they scoped.

Unless you're talking about the possibility that there were no Town investigative roles? If an Investigative role did not exist, that still does not explain why Yedi would go for a 1v1. If there were no investigation roles, it would be the perfect time to claim investigative without incriminating anybody, which would allow him to possibly survive longer.

Also, I'm going to point out that you're suggesting that the Mafia has a rolecop who never scoped Kirsche (the doc that got shot, remember?) or Blitzy or Hober Mallow. Okay, perhaps that is possible, but you'd still be left with one player. If you investigate everyone and don't find an investigative role, wouldn't the natural conclusion be that the one person who wasn't scoped carries the investigative role? I don't see how the Mafia could be confident that Yedi's claim would not be met with any role-related resistance.

The mod meta about the rules is discussion of a copy pasted ruleset. look at the last game I could find by this host: http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=53097

....it's a 50-page game, can you tell me exactly what about this game you want to highlight? Is it that Rule 9 is the same as this one? Because the other rules have changed; in fact, Rule 10 is different between these two games. So the host did alter the rules to make it suitable for this game. There was an Alignment Cop back then, there probably is some type of investigative role here.

Even then, this argument still rests on the fact that this game was designed such that the Town has literally no investigative roles, which is extremely unlikely, if you ask me. And again, the Mafia could not have known for sure that this was the case.

Claiming an investigative role with no bingo is a strategy he could've employed. If you're going to claim, this one is fine, especially if they think they can get another lynch on someone who's town after Yedi gets revenge lynched (not hard to do with dwindling town players and a weak slot like Irony, no offense).

No bingo? What's that? Do you mean claiming without incriminating somebody with their claim? That doesn't seem to fit with Yedi getting revenge lynched... Can you clarify?

From what I can gather, your argument rests on the possibility that a) Town has no investigative roles, AND b) Mafia knows this. Plus other stuff that you'll have to clarify because I don't understand it. Either way, I think you're trying to draw attention to a very unlikely scenario.

I think Rainbow is likely scum. That analysis is full of holes.

How so? Note, I never claimed that I was 100% confident that Yedi was town and you were scum. I acknowledge that there is certainly a possibility that Yedi is scum. However, I believe the probability of that is very low, and I've explained why I think that is the case. These "holes" you speak of, if you're referring to the earlier parts of your post, seem to be focused on some very specific scenarios against the vast number of scenarios where ScumYedi does not make sense.

Furthermore, I also analyzed the worst-case scenario and showed that lynching you would be better than lynching Yedi, if we compare the scenarios in which our lynch target today is Town.

Based on the data that I have, do you find my conclusion to be faulty? The holes you mentioned are not increasing the probability of TownRyker-ScumYedi to make it higher than the probability of ScumRyker-TownYedi; all I can gather from your post is that the probability is non-zero (which I already know). You also haven't seemed to pont out any holes in my worst-case analysis. If you are Town, please explain to me why you believe my analysis is faulty enough to the extent of scumreading me for it. It would be unfortunate if the low-probability scenario were a reality, but can you really blame me for not centering my decisions on such a scenario based on the limited information that I have?

[Elemina]

Rainbow I just want to say that it's obvious that a lurking Yedi is more scum than Ryker who's been more involved than him. Lord.

Anyway I'll get at your response more in depth.

[Kriemhild]

Regardless, I ask only we await a possible counterclaim instead of rushing the lynch (THIS MEANS ME NOT BEING AT L-1 ELIE AND IRONY). i don't want to get hammered by YOLO before people have a chance to CC.

I disagree. Even if there is a counterclaim, it is highly unlikely that we would have enough time for enough relevant players to have a proper clear-headed rational discussion about who's lying and such and then arrive at a lynch decision that secures the majority of the votes. I'm going to sleep and I would certainly be pissed off if these things happened in the last minute.

At this point, even if Yedi were scum, we don't have enough time to steer the lynch to a proper conclusion. We can't immediately disregard the possibility of TownYedi (e.g. the counterclaimer could be Ryker's scumbuddy), and we may not even have enough awake players to lynch Yedi. And if we No Lynch, then the Mafia now knows who the counterclaimed investigator is, which is obviously bad for us.

At this point, I believe it is best for Town investigative roles to stay silent unless they have valuable information that would not be acquired from Ryker's flip. We will end up verifying Yedi's claim based on Ryker's flip. If Yedi is, indeed, scum, then at the very least, our investigative role will be able to remain hidden from the Mafia while Yedi gets lynched tomorrow. This would give our investigative role tonight to make another investigation before possibly revealing themselves tomorrow.

[Kriemhild]

Oh, good, YOLO is here before I fell asleep. Let's see what he has to say.

[Kriemhild]

(you're not at L-1, Ryker, my vote isn't on anyone at)

[Kriemhild]

*atm

[Kriemhild]

though I don't think YOLO would want to hammer his scumbuddy either

[Kriemhild]

It's already midnight here and I do have to wake up early tomorrow to mentor at a Workshop. So I'll have to leave my vote at ##Vote: Ryker

I truly do believe that at this point, we're not gonna get enough players to steer the lynch towards any other direction, and any last minute counterclaims or reveals would just provide free info to the Mafia.

I will point out that Lynching Ryker > No Lynch regardless of whether you like Ryker/Yedi better. It's better that we make the wrong lynch now (and get info out of it) when we're not at MYLO/LYLO, as opposed to No Lynching now to give a free kill to the Mafia and then be forced to make the right decision between Yedi vs Ryker on D5 when it will be LYLO/MYLO. Even if you are confident of TownRyker-ScumYedi, don't make the fate of the entire game depend on this. Lynch now, when we can afford to (it's not Game Over even if we lynch Town) and then acquire good information to improve our chances of lynching the rest of the Mafia (after we lynch the 1v1 scum, of course).

So if you are Town, then please vote for Ryker and hammer him before deadline.

##Vote: Ryker

[Irony]

##Vote:Ryker

I didn't know if I did it right last time, so wanted to make so.

[Elemina]

I just realized I have to be the hammer here or no lynch. I would rather take the time to respond to Rainbow but I'll do that tomorrow. I'll just say that it seems we are basing this solely on mechanics and not reads. If Yedi is somehow town, I want him to improve his activity and actually interact with me more. I want him to explain why he is playing the way he is as an investigative role.

I'll hammer in my next post.

[Elemina]

Vote: Ryker

[Elemina]

##Vote: Ryker

Just in case.

[Paperblade]

hammertime

[Paperblade]

Ryker was ordinary. A little TOO ordinary, if you know what I mean. So you murdered him.

Dear Ryker,

You are Austin. You're a supposedly ordinary person, except not really -- which is why you're in this situation to begin with. This situation is way over your head, and you're no hero. But if you can make some sort of a difference, then you'll lend your assistance to the Ensemble's cause.

Despite your great magical potential, you don't like to use your powers very much except in the direst of situations. Once during the night phase, you may respond to your role PM with "Night X: Shield from everything". You will create a force field around to protect them from any and all actions targeting them that night phase. You may only use this ability once in the game because there's no way that they'd need you to do the same thing twice.

In other words, you are the 1-shot omniguard.

You are aligned with the Ensemble. You win when all threats have been eliminated.

Huh, that's not what you were sold at all.

It is now Night 4. Night 4 ends at 11PM PDT on November 13.

[Paperblade]

Donald Trump (aka Gorf) replaces SB.

[Paperblade]

Are you ready for the shocking reveal?

Get ready

ready

ready

ready

No one died.

It is now Day 5. Day 5 ends on November 16 at 11PM PDT.

It is now MYLO.

[Elemina]

We mass claim today. I am thinking Yedi/Spinal/Refa as scum. Possibly Irony.

Rainbow I want to see how Ryker's flip changes your reads and how you should approach claims. Irony, how does Ryker flipping town change your opinions? Give me three scum picks.

[Irony]

How the heck did no one die? Did the Mafia not pick someone to kill or something?

Ryker's death changes some things? I'm thinking Yedi is Mafia, as he possibly lied about Ryker's alligence. Yes, there is the possibility that Yedi is town and was told the incorrect answer (one of the mechanics is that information given to investigative roles may not be accurate or something).

Apart from that..... I still think Yolo and Emelina are Mafia. But I am not 100% sure about either of these slots (I'd say maybe 50%-ish?) I want to wait and see how this so called Gorf acts/reacts in this game before making any decisions. After all MYLO is in place, and I certainly don't want to mislynch anyone again.

And I agree with you- Mass claim today. I've already claimed, so I don't need to claim today.

[Kriemhild]

I am unsure of whether we should massclaim today, because I think our lynch decision is obvious - we're lynching Yedi. I don't think the massclaim information is going to change that decision, but it will provide free info to the Mafia. That being said, I am not opposed to a massclaim if people want that.

I still feel like Refason is Town. Maybe it's due to Elieson's town meta but I just can't see that slot being scum. The Ryker vote on D4 really felt like falling for the Mafia's 1v1 "trap" (which was dumb btw, because even though we lynched Ryker, we're going to eliminate Yedi for sure now) as opposed to playing along with their plan to deliberately incite a mislynch. I'm not completely confident though, but he strongly reads as more Townish than Scummy for me.

Irony's playstyle still feels so strongly newbtown, and her D4 behavior even further enforces it. Again, it's not based on raw data, but I can't imagine Irony being able to consciously play along with Yedi's gambit unless she's just an incredibly amazing and experienced scum actress. She's actually my Towniest read from the remaining players.

Elemina I have mixed feelings for; Her behavior during D4 did feel like Town being highly skeptical of Yedi's claim but still acknowledging the importance of lynching, but at the same time I can actually picture Scum Elemina deliberately opposing the Ryker lynch for towncred while guessing (after Refason's Yedi vote) that Town was unlikely to lynch Yedi despite her pleas. She's still slightly leaning Town for me, however.

Everyone else was silent in D4, which is annoying as hell, so I can only rely on their pre-D4 behavior (mostly subjective fluff). I think the scumteam is Yedi/YOLO/SB (scummy descending order), but I'm unsure of Spinal, who might also be scum.

I also noticed YOLO viewing the thread near the end of D4, and staying online for quite a while without posting; considering how he suddenly hammered Green Poet on D1 without properly reading (e.g. getting her ability wrong), his silence in D4 is really fishy. It makes me think he was Yedi's scumbuddy and was happy to see the Yedi lynch not happening and decided that it's best to let the Town decide between a Ryker Lynch and No Lynch (both of which are Mafia beneficial) without getting involved. Seems super scummy to me.

If we decide to massclaim, I would propose we decide on the order, with players being perceived generally badly claiming before players being perceived relatively well. YOLO should claim early, for example, imo.

I also want SuB to claim asap, because I don't to give them time to fabricate a consistent non-suspicious claim if they are scum trying to catch up to the thread. I want a quick honest claim and SB's action list from them.

imo massclaim order should go SuB > YOLO > Spinal > Refason. I'll go whenever you guys (mainly Irony, Refason, and Elemina) want me to go. I wouldn't mind going first even, but I need to make sure the massclaim is definitely happening today before I claim.

[Kriemhild]

Yes, there is the possibility that Yedi is town and was told the incorrect answer (one of the mechanics is that information given to investigative roles may not be accurate or something).

About that, while such a possibility does exist, I personally highly doubt it. Yedi did not claim to be a general alignment cop; he claimed to be an investigative Jack-of-all-Trades of sorts, with multiple different investigative abilities. As such, I highly doubt this game has a Mafia role (like Prosecutor) that could make Town look like scum from a 1-shot alignment check. There might be a Godfather/Miller, but Ryker was not a Miller so that could not have influenced Yedi's investigation. There could be a redirecting role, but with Hober Mallow carrying the powerful direct redirecting ability, I don't think it's very likely for the Mafia to have some type of redirection while they were also super lucky enough to deceive an alignment check.

Thus, I don't think it's worth acting on the possibility of TownYedi, which is super unlikely, and we'd have extremely little to go off of if we doubted everything.

[Kriemhild]

I would also really hate it if we agreed on a massclaim and then YOLO/Spinal just never show up to claim. The last thing I want is to give them an opportunity to lurk and gather everyone else's claims in order to fabricate convincing claims for themselves.

[Kriemhild]

Oh, and regardless of whether we decide to massclaim or not, Yedi better get here and tell us his "results" from last night.

[Kriemhild]

As for the No-Deaths, given that there are two dead protective roles, no roleblocking counterclaims, and Irony claiming that she can't roleblock anyone yet, I think the only possibilities are that the Mafia didn't send in a kill action (e.g. due to inactivity, unresolved opinion differences at deadline, etc) or there is some other role (like a Bulletproof Townie, for example) that somehow caused No-Deaths.

[Kriemhild]

Paper, I really hope that YOLO and Spinal are getting poked a lot