Base Stats, Unit Type, Weapon Modifiers and Arena Impact

[Katrisa]

I've been keeping track of the max level stats for units I'm interested in in a spreadsheet and I've started to make some interesting observations.  So read on if you're interested in theory craft and are interested in how stats impact arena play and offensive and defensive compositions.   So I'm going to lay down some base observations which are mostly true +/- a few state points.  After I'll start talking about how these impact the arena and the compositions you will see on the higher end of competitive play and as the game ages (unless they redesign the stat system).

--- Stats Theory ---

Looking at my chart characters seem to fall in three base stat brackets:
Type                                 Base Stats:
Neutral/Mages                       160
Tanks/Flying/MeleeMount        170
Tanks                                    180

The base score is then modified by weapon attributes:
Type                   Modifier
Dire/Brave              -10 
TriangleWeapon      - 4
ArmorSlayer            - 4
SituationalWeapon  - 3

Base score is also modified by passive stat bonuses:
Type:                   Modifier
Fury3                    +12
Def+/Spd+/etc         +3

And finally units seam to get a +/- 6 stat bonus based off flavor.

*Note:  Originally I thought all fliers and mounted units had a stat deficit.  But instead many of the ones I looked at had one of the weapon deductions and many fliers/mounted units have flavor deductions.  Some clearly do not though like Minerva who sits at a whopping 174 and Ephraim who sits at 173.    So flying and mount characters to seem to have around 170 base stats.
*Note 2:  I also checked if counter weapons (not a counter skill) affected the overall stats (as a counter weapon is an Mt loss of potentially 5 damage) but it appears characters with counter weapons receive base stat bonuses to compensate for their weapon.  For instance Nowi sports a disgusting 177 as a non tank.
*Note 3: Current singing units both have lower than normal stats, this could be based off flavor or sing/dance could be viewed as having a small deduction itself.

--- General Thoughts ---

Ok so what does this all mean.  One you can roughly estimate a characters base stats by knowing their weapon type and unit type.  Second knowing this you can make some observations about what is going to happen in the Arena as the score goes up (both for defensive and offensive teams).  Neural units, mages, and dire/brave units will thin out until they disappear entirely in the upper ranks (think offensives with 4700-4800+ points).  Their base stats with modifiers causes them to be noncompetitive.  Functionally this means at the top end of the arena you will struggle to proceed with a ranged unit on your team or a dire/brave.  Likewise though it means you will encounter very few dire/brave units because your base score will be too high to be matched to them (pretty weird huh?).

There is some added complexity to this in that until a healthy set of whales have four +10 melee and tank units they'll still observe some +10 Takumi and other ranged nasties.  But as the game ages and more units bloat, Takumi, other neutrals, mages and brave users will disappear from the top ranks.  In theory over a longer time one might see the top 100 ranked only consist of +10 tanks

Now with this said as you get closer and closer to the top some strange things will occur.  For one if you want to be top dog you would actually want your defensive team to sport less than top stats... as you don't want to "feed" your competition.  Or you would want to have a tank slayer composition and hope that the matching algorithm allows a big enough difference for your defense to match your competition.

--- High End Arena Complexity Drop ---

This all results in something else funny.  Over time offensive battles with 4700-4800+ points won't have ranged units or dance/sing.  Meaning that the matches are literally a mindless slug-fest with relatively low complexity.  Everyone is melee, ranged counter is meaningless, match your color to the opposing color of the AI and you win.  This may change some in the future when tanks can pivot around others but combat is still going to be relatively simple and stale in the top ranks.

--- Free to Play Impact ---

One good question is how does this affect people who aren't whales?  In theory if you're free to play or only pay small amounts your characters are probably only going to be +0 to say +3 within relevant time frames.  So if you want top arena scores it means in general your offensive team will want to avoid Mages, Neutral units and Dire/Brave units (blast you Cordelia!).  But defense teams could have a +10 Takumi or +10 Nino with high enough stats to still match against your tank/high melee composition, and consequently you'll still have to account for dealing with them in order to clear 7 runs with no deaths.  So your as free to play your ideal ranking will be to clear with all tanks/melee against mixed parties with high +bonus ranged units... sounds super fair and fun right?

--- Weapon/Skill Inheritance ---

Another interesting thing we'll see later this month is how weapon and skill inheritance impacts all of this.  For one I do NOT know if Mt damage, skill modifiers, and dire/brave speed penalties impact your base stats.  But from comparisons with other team compositions on this forum and others comments I'm inclined to conclude that all three do impact how your arena "base stats" are measured.  If these are included in your base score this has some very interesting impact on Weapon/Skill Inheritance in the arena.  For one it will mean if we can change weapons it will be ideal to sport 16Mt weapons on everyone.  It also means that some units like counter dragons will suddenly sport very high scores if their weapon were swapped with a 16Mt.  It will also mean Fury 3 will be must have on as many units as possible (causing your score to bloat).  And that Def+/Res+/Atk+/etc will all give you a small bump in score.  Personally I'm hoping they recognize this problem and either do not allow Fury 3 to transfer, discount it from arena score totals, or limit the ability to non tank units.  

--- Fin ---

Anyway just food for thought!  Also note there are absolutely some estimation errors in the above numbers and theories.  And all of this could change at any time if they choose to redesign the system or if skill inheritance knocks things for a loop.  Feel free to chime in with any thoughts, pointers or data o/

Edited March 3, 2017 by Katrisa

[Skala_Bundet]

A bit glum, are we? But the observations seem astute (as long as the AI doesn't start using smite and the likes better... I guess Armor boost skills aren't enough to help defense at the top either).

Inheriting will have who knows what type of impact .

Still keep my fingers crossed that characters ratings will vary based on their global usage frequency in the arena (seems like the fairest dynamic balancing system by far to me. It goes a little against the gacha principle... but might promote it, since the whales need to collect all units . Would need some thought for how this should work for defense teams)

I guess I'll try and remain between 10k-30k (until better units or many more feathers come along)