C. C. Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 it's not so much that Sally didn't want to put you at L-1- that would look a bit suspicious and I can see why scum wouldn't want to do that. but if that was the situation then I would expect scum Sally to not vote her buddy, who was your largest counterwagon? and if she did, then as Kahl said I would have thought she'd make it more explicit than that to actually get more cred from a Rumor lynch. idk I don't find Baroness's reasons for scumreading Wally super bad? it is generally kind of bad play, if not necessarily scummy play, to be so sure about a scumread that you already start thinking about associative reads before they flip, and that's what Wally was doing cuz of the cop guilty. it could be chainsaw defending, but what I actually find more suspicious is that she chose to vote you over Wally even though it seemed like she had more reasons to suspect Wally than you. It's possible it was because she wanted to ensure your lynch over her buddy's. what's also suspicious is that she basically never talked about Rumor except tangentially when attacking Wally and then after the cop guilty was like "rip that was one of my townreads". also from the other side, Rumor in ED1 says she likes BvBB's posting because "no particular reason why tbh just GUT" and then puts her under the "no fucking clue" alignment category on D2 my reason for townreading her before seems silly now that I realize who she probably is :weary: ##Vote: Baroness von Bon Bon would be dope if Wally came in with a Hilda guilty so we could get a surrender here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marisa Kirisame Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 beppi hardcore crumbed that he protected me and I wish he didn't do that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marisa Kirisame Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 On Thursday, February 08, 2018 at 12:54 AM, Beppi The Clown said: I think Cagney is town. Based on what I know, I currently have a pretty good reason to believe that they're town. merp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marisa Kirisame Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 sorry for no effort tonight I just got off work and some shit went down and I'm on zero energy and 100% post-breakdown apathy and also still stuck on my phone but I have no problem with voting out baroness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nemu Kurotsuchi Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Seems good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marisa Kirisame Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 at this point in time I'm starting to get paranoid of a few people including kahl. idk. will elaborate tomorrow. also never got to looking more into baroness but will continue maybe even later tonight, I'm gonna be up probably all night so I'll be back in a few hours in fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estelle Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Massive theorypost incoming. After I take care of some stuff. But here's some food for thought: Mafia has a role cop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estelle Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 12:17 AM, Rumor Honeybottoms said: brineybeard is like blatantly town and i wouldn't be surprised if he got doc saved or something I waffled yesterday because of this. Sounded like a doc crumb. But Honeybottoms turned out to be mafia. Y'know who else said something similar? On 2/7/2018 at 8:04 AM, Sally Stageplay said: Alright, seems like a lot is happening now. The no night kill solidifies my town read on the captain, since other scenarios where scum misses a kill seem unlikely. It also makes me pretty certain scum doesn't have a strongman, or at least not one they could use last night for if that ever becomes relevant. Yeah. And then: On 2/7/2018 at 11:42 AM, Werner Werman said: If my theory is correct, whoever was responsible for the lack of kill on N1 is going to die tonight. Also, if my theory is correct, D3 should involve a lot less screaming, since I think said role is one of today's points of contention. Can't believe I'm lynching for the sake of roles this early. So half my theory was correct, which was mafia rolecopped the doc on N1. That's how they'd know it was a doc save, not something like a jailer/hooker/BPV. Beppi did a great job of advertising that they had a power role, though. Why is beyond me. Honeybottoms flipping scum has the following implications: - Kahl is most likely clear, since he was hinting at her lynch on D1, even though Djimmi was up for grabs - Maria is most likely clear, because that slapfight during D2 didn't read like a bus at all - Grim is most likely clear for the last-minute unvote - I'm slightly less convinced that Wally is an auto-clear, since we lynched a goon, but he's hardly first place in my lynch priority - Cagney is probably town, thanks to Beppi's last words That leaves me, Brineybeard, Baroness, Sally, and Hilda. I'm not going to case myself, and I'm not getting scum vibes from the pirate. On reread, Wally wasn't the only not-really-there person on D1 - Sally and Baroness were also mostly no-shows. Thus, I'm going to pair off every one of them. - Sally/Hilda: Sally sorta-defends Hilda here based on Maria's case. Hilda sees Sally as mildly scummy here. - Sally/Baroness: Baroness mentions Sally as a minor scum read here. Sally doesn't mention Baroness at all, from my short skim. - Baroness/Hilda: I don't think they mention each other? I'm getting tired. So my guess is that if we lynch between these three, we'll hit the scum team. First place goes to the person that quoted the weird stuff on D2: ##Vote: Sally Stageplay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marisa Kirisame Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 @ Werner's case on Sally that was kind of my exact beef with them yesterday. that comment they made about scum mot having a strongman was fucking weird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marisa Kirisame Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 ##vote: sally stageplay I still like this from going through their stuff yesterday actually. will be back to discuss other things Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nemu Kurotsuchi Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 WRT mafia rolecopping Beppi: It's possible, but I also think that they could have killed Beppi because as soon as they were like "I'm not getting lynched ever, especially after what happened last night" with the only thing happening last night being a NK, I thought she was responsible for that. Doubt mafia didn't catch that either. WRT Sally, it's like...I agree the Strongman comment is weird, but considering Beppi probably docced Cagney not Captain, I don't really see the scum motivation in Sally being like "yeah, that dude that we didn't kill is probably cleared"...well, maybe if scum is Sally/Captain. Don't see that scumteam making sense though because Scum!Captain would benefit more from a Scum!Rumor lynch over a Scum!Sally lynch. 1 hour ago, Cagney Carnation said: at this point in time I'm starting to get paranoid of a few people including kahl. idk. will elaborate tomorrow. also never got to looking more into baroness but will continue maybe even later tonight, I'm gonna be up probably all night so I'll be back in a few hours in fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estelle Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Dr. Kahl said: WRT mafia rolecopping Beppi: It's possible, but I also think that they could have killed Beppi because as soon as they were like "I'm not getting lynched ever, especially after what happened last night" with the only thing happening last night being a NK, I thought she was responsible for that. Doubt mafia didn't catch that either. WRT Sally, it's like...I agree the Strongman comment is weird, but considering Beppi probably docced Cagney not Captain, I don't really see the scum motivation in Sally being like "yeah, that dude that we didn't kill is probably cleared"...well, maybe if scum is Sally/Captain. Don't see that scumteam making sense though because Scum!Captain would benefit more from a Scum!Rumor lynch over a Scum!Sally lynch. Both Honeybottoms and Sally mentioned that the doc stopped the kill. Here's the actual quote: Quote Matchstick: I'm not getting lynched this phase, or any other phase, and I have good reason to believe that. There were a few other crumbs, but all they suggested was a power role. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ochako Uraraka Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 They could've rolecopped the doctor but that isn't really the only explanation? Like we're assuming that they even have a rolecop but it could just be PoE: you get notified that your action failed when you get hooked right? So if you don't get notified then it was probably the doctor that saved your target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nemu Kurotsuchi Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Ooooh, I get your logic now. I guess it's just weird to me that Scum!Sally would be deliberately wrong for no benefit. Also misread the crumb, I just assumed it had to do w/stopping the kill when I initially read it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ochako Uraraka Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 What I mean is I wouldn't case Sally on the possibility for scum having a rolecop since that's not the only explanation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estelle Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Cala Maria said: They could've rolecopped the doctor but that isn't really the only explanation? Like we're assuming that they even have a rolecop but it could just be PoE: you get notified that your action failed when you get hooked right? So if you don't get notified then it was probably the doctor that saved your target. Beppi jails the N1 kill, the kill fails. Works exactly the same way. The fact that both named it as a doc is weird. So's the comment about the lack of a strongkill. If I don't go on roles, Sally's scummy anyway, for that half-hearted vote on Rumor, as well as a lot of self-waffling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marisa Kirisame Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 why is having a jailer more viable than having a doc though? as someone who's still suspicious of sally anyway isn't it just a given that people will at first assume it was a doc save when a kill fails? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estelle Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Jailer means that the town protective role can't sit on a confirmed town power role. Also means that they need to figure out whether they blocked a kill on their target or prevented a kill from happening. Djimmi's flip told me that there's some odd roles in the game, so having a jailer makes more sense to me. I'll entertain the other theory, that the mafia read into Beppi's words and figured it out from that. If so, that puts Baroness in the spotlight, due to this (source): Quote This is WIFOM but personally I like it and because of it would rather not lynch Werner. Between Sally/Baroness, I feel that the latter would've figured out Beppi's crumbs more easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C. C. Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I at least took Beppi's crumbs as him hinting he was a protective role because he said something like "you guys would be dumb to lynch me if I claimed". we wouldn't necessarily be dumb to lynch him if he was just any PR so I took it to mean that he was the one responsible for stopping the NK. Since he crumbed heavily that his target was Cagney, I don't think Rumor/Sally saying that I might have been doc saved is relevant. That would only be a a sign of scumminess if we had reason to suspect that I was the doc target. If they were going to talk about doc saves because they knew there had been a doc save, why would they mention me and not Cagney? (unless I'm their buddy but I know I'm not). I think that's a coincidence also while any 2/3 of Sally/Baroness/Hilda could be buddies with each other I think the odds of Sally being buddies with Rumor are lower than for the other two. also Cala is right; if your kill gets blocked by a jailer/hooker you get "action failed" as a result and if it gets blocked by a doctor you don't, generally speaking. scum would know that they got docblocked and not hooked or jailed. I'm also confused why you still think there's a jailer even after Beppi's flip. I highly doubt we have both a jailer and a doctor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olivier Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 why am I awake at this hour reading but my vote is like 99% gonna be on baroness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Elimination Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 God no crumbing please gys dunno why people feel it is necessary. I was roleblocked. Gonna wait on some different people posting to make ac decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nemu Kurotsuchi Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wally Warbles said: I was roleblocked. Motivation dying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refakitty³ Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 The role cop won't find me guilty considering i'm innocent. I'll follow up on my previous scumread on her and vote Sally. ##Vote Sally Stageplay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olivier Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I don't think there's evidence of a scum role cop. I initially backed off Beppi in part because he heavily implied he was a power role. Later in the day he also made several comments heavily implying he was Doc specifically. Werner's case on Sally seems to be implying that Rumor and Sally both crumbed doc with a save on Briney, which means they're both mafia because... uh. Bonbon's content still sucks, her reaction to cases yesterday was to accuse me of not reading her post and not really explain herself at all? You can't deny that a significant amount of your cases were predicated on "This person is playing in a way I disagree with, they must be scum" without connecting it from playing poorly to being scummy and the reaction feels like scum not knowing what else to do but act indignant and hope people buy the act Sally's cases are kind of whatever. idk I'll need to see what her posts today bring Feeling really confident that my Cala townread was accurate after Rumor flipped scum Wally is obvtown imo, the only scenario where I see him being scum would be no godfather and town having an unclaimed PR and he bussed Rumor for the cred. I don't think this is a likely scenario since I also read his D2 as tonally town but I'm throwing it out there 'cause I don't want to die and see people throw lategame Cagney is obvtown unless Beppi was the most obvious Doc in the world yet was also incredibly misleading about his save (less than 1% chance of this imo) wouldn't lynch Werner, I don't really agree with a lot of their cases but this is standard for that player and they're towntelling really hard Briney is obviously a good player, so even ignoring my meta read, I'll go into why I think they're town a bit despite bad Rumor interactions: Basically, I think Briney is smart enough to know that hard defending Rumor is going to look bad if Rumor flips scum, and would make some sort of effort to have a better interaction? It'd be pretty cocky to think he could just hard defend his scumbuddy who is barely doing shit and self-admittedly is a bad scum player (which no doubt Briney would've known from the start of the game), and while the person I'm thinking of has definitely made cocky scumplays in the past, this game doesn't really fit their MO. And if I'm wrong about their identity... well, then making cocky scumplays doesn't really fit anyone else's MO period. I suck at reading new/inexperienced players so Hilda is just kind of someone who posts and I go "cool, I hope someone else can make heads or tails of your slot" Kahl is in this weird spot where I don't really remember their posts other than nothing stood out to me as scummy and they generally felt pure/honest, so I've got a townread there and I don't feel like making a serious reread rn idk I'm pretty demotivated right now, I feel like we just lynch Baroness+Sally and game is over easy easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olivier Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 ##Vote: Baroness von bonbon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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