Cuphead In: Don't Deal With the Mafia (Game Over)

[Estelle]

For the record:

Maria's last visit time - an hour ago
The rest of us - within the past 15 minutes

See you in D7, hopefully!

[Prims]

No lynch was reached.

You guys have 24 hours to send in actions.

[Aizen]

Nobody died last night.

It is now Day 7. You have a little over 72 hours to decide on a lynch. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. It is possible for town to lose following a mislynch today!

Baroness Von Bon Bon's player has informed me they will be V/LA for the first ~24 hours of this phase.

[C. C.]

sigh kind of annoying Baroness isn't here

also annoyed that Cala didn't show up in the last hour. the reason I asked those questions was because I just wanted to see their thought process answering them if I was going to make a decision there. it's all useless now that it's out in the open cuz wifom.

leaning baroness I guess? i feel that over the course of the game the other two have done more townie things; baroness just kind of has the one big one which is interactions with grim. but shrug idk. werner's last posts at deadline made me feel better about them

[Estelle]

Posting this from my phone.

Power is out, expected to be restored really late tonight. Need to conserve my battery. Werner out.

[Cú Chulainn]

Turns out I'll actually be around for about 2 hours.  I didn't plan on waking up till around 5:30 and low and behold I'm awake at 2:40.

With no night kill happening I'm pretty convinced it's not Werner or Captain here.

##Vote: Cala

What makes you keep changing your mind @Captain Brineybeard?  Yesterday you bounced Cala > Me > Cala and now it's back to me again.  I also feel like I've had other townie points in my game besides just Grim interactions.

[C. C.]

what are those other townie things? most of them as far as I can remember are less actively townie things and more just things that aren't scummy

[C. C.]

4p sucks cuz i have to "convince" werner rather than just going with my gut when half my reasoning is just a giant shrug emoji

[Cú Chulainn]

I feel like Post day 3 I did pressure mostly only Grim and Cala but I also attempted what I could during those day phases to push people away from lynching some of the current lynch targets with arguments on why I felt some of them were town as well as why both Grim/Cala were scummy.  I know defending flipped town isn't entirely a townie thing persay but I( feel some of those are worth merit vs no merit.

I also feel like both my day 1 and day 2 play outside of me being inactive during both of those days aren't as scummy as people say it is.  When I WAS around I was actively scum hunting and attempting to lead lynches.  I can see how people stated my EOD 1 stuff WRT Djimmi are bad but I don't see that.  I wasn't a fan of any of the other lynches that were potentially happening that day phase and instead of turboing I felt much more comfortable with a Djimmi lynch.  I also still felt there was a chance they could end up coming out as a scum flip based on their early day phase beginnings.

I'd also question as to why Cala is regarded as more townie than me when a large portion of her play is basically the same as me or worse in some scenarios.  From day 3 onwards she did nothing but focus on me in a similar manner that I focused on grim/her.  Her secondary reads outside of that were all based on how they would fit in with Scum!Baronness and not even taking into account "What if Baroness is town?"  You mentioned previously about how 'strangely confident' I've been when I'd say there is argument for Cala being even more confident than me.  Then if you look at her day1/day 2 play I'd like to hear about what during her play those days is overly townie vs, like you said, just not scummy.  Specifically her day 2, which I feel like has more scum intent behind it than town intent.

I will probably be around ish for the next few hours like I stated but I might end up leaving a little bit early to do some things before I leave for work so I may only be around for an hour or so at best.  If I can I'll go back and try to give some better explanations WRT my day 1/2 reasoning for Scum!Cala.

[C. C.]

i mean I agree that i don't think your d1 and d2 were much worse than cala's in a vacuum. I think that table I created yesterday was wrong actually because thinking about it and reading my cases against you and cala again from earlier in the game I feel like I lost sight of why I was scumreading you in the first place at that point. i forgot a lot of what I didn't like about your interactions with rumor- not just that you didn't give much of a read there. that's suspicious but I can see why that might have happened. your d2 case against cala I don't think was very good and you pushed it more than other stuff that seemed stronger to me at the time. that combined with not giving much of an opinion on rumor seemed like trying to push the cala lynch to save rumor.

the main other townie thing that I think you did other than the grim interactions was that it didn't feel like you were really trying to expand the lynch pool much to stop being PoEd down. like I thought you would have pushed me as scum more but you never really did. that's why I unvoted you on d3 despite me never really getting a good answer for your rumor interactions, and I think that was an okay decision at the time but I shouldn't have just forgotten about those rumor interactions on later days.

with cala the rumor interactions are kind of weird because from rumor's side it would point towards town Cala but there are some odd things from Cala's end. i guess with her though like... the main townie things aren't specific parts of her content as much as her tone and some of her actions? like, her begging me not to lynch her yesterday. it's kind of shitty and unfair to you and I'm sure you'll be annoyed by it but I don't think i've ever really seen scum do that; it seemed very sincere to me and it feels like the kind of bad faith scum defence that people would ping you for in later games if you abused.

beyond that idk man you probably want something concrete but I guess like... your play feels a bit too deliberate? not sure how to explain it. cala's seems more reactive to stuff going on and like... not planned? i know this is all wishy-washy stuff

[Cú Chulainn]

3 minutes ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

 i guess with her though like... the main townie things aren't specific parts of her content as much as her tone and some of her actions? like, her begging me not to lynch her yesterday. it's kind of shitty and unfair to you and I'm sure you'll be annoyed by it but I don't think i've ever really seen scum do that; it seemed very sincere to me and it feels like the kind of bad faith scum defence that people would ping you for in later games if you abused.

I just want to point that if I'm potentially gonna get lynched I will do the same exact thing.  Like this is blatant wifom that anyone would state.  You haven't seen scum ever BEG to not be lynched?  I've done that personally as scum before.  I'll reply to the rest of your post when I can but while reading your post this stuck out to me because it's LITERALLY town reading someone because of the biggest WIFOM reason in the world.  I mean look at the big picture you just stated.

Someone gets pushed up to be lynched
States they will beg to not be lynched, mind you they don't ACTUALLY beg to not be lynched they only state they are willing to.  Mind you this is also in *ylo when any lynch wins the game for one side or the other.
They are being town read for that willingness to beg.

People have begged previously when on the lynch pedastal to not be lynched, this has happened both on town side and scum side. It's one of the biggest reasons WIFOM exists.

[Cú Chulainn]

8 minutes ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

beyond that idk man you probably want something concrete but I guess like... your play feels a bit too deliberate? not sure how to explain it. cala's seems more reactive to stuff going on and like... not planned? i know this is all wishy-washy stuff

Give me more so I can understand what you mean.  I can't argue against this if you don't explain it a bit better.  How does my play feel deliberate?  Does it feel like I planned out all my actions?  How or why?  Why does my Grim/Cala read looked planned, or in a better way to state this, faked?  Because that's what a plan would generally mean in a mafia game.  How did I plan out my actions or thought process? Did my Grim read feel faked to you?  Does my Cala read feel planned and faked or is it something in my tone that makes you think that?

If you are also talking about reactive reads then you can also look at my Day 3 interactions I believe.  I was extremely reactive on that day, but I was also up to be lynched that day.

[Ochako Uraraka]

I can't say why I missed deadline because that would reveal my identity. In any case, I have a bit of time to answer some stuff today, definitely no time tomorrow, and some time during the last 24 hours.

My argument is the same though; ##Vote: Baroness Von Bon Bon

[C. C.]

obviously now that I said that I found that to be townie, it becomes a wifom possibility and no longer valid going forward. but i can't actually remember scum doing something like that in the past. do you have an example rather than just saying that everyone says stuff like that?

i guess the deliberate/confident thing kind of go together. like i've had to change my reads literally every day and both scumread and townread pretty much every player in the game since D2, except Beppi and Cagney. but it feels like your reads have been very static. with the exception of wally, who outed himself as the cop, you've been essentially scumreading the same people since day 2 and you haven't changed your mind about that a single time. and maybe that's just because the top people I was pushing, like sally, got lynched, and the ones you've been pushing didn't. but even with sally, I waffled back and forth on her until lynching her on D4 and it doesn't feel like you've ever seriously considered anyone else. that feels odd to me in a game where I and other flipped townies have had so much trouble being sure. it makes me feel like... you decided to push Grim and Cala rather than coming to that conclusion organically.

[Cú Chulainn]

This is starting to get frustrating for me because you keep stating things that are either, the same thing, or very similar to the same thing while also IGNORING my questions and IGNORING my counterpoints.  If you are going to say I'm scummy for certain things, please at least respond to the questions I'm asking in response.  I don't mean to sound super aggressive here but I have literally asked one specific question twice and you have ignored it, both times.

First off I'll start with the question that's been ignored and is greatly bothering me:

Looking at My play compared to cala play and one of your BIGGEST arguments, the fact that I've only been primarily pushing 2 scum reads, why is Cala's case different from mine?  Cala has done the literal same thing.  Since late day 2 onwards she hasn't pushed ANYONE except for myself.  Literally in I believe every day phase from day 3 onwards her vote has been on me at the end of phase votals.  Her secondary scum reads haven't really even been stated as much except for the fact that she thought you were most likely my buddy.  So I ask once again: Why is my 'confidence' scummy and her 'confidence' not scummy? This is very two faced coming from you as you are literally saying one of us is scum and one of us is town for doing the EXACT SAME THING.

Now let's move onto a second question:  Why is the fact that I've primarily been pushing my top two scum reads scummy?  Over the past few days I have primarily pushed only Grim/Cala, yes.  I have although commented on any potential lynch as well as stated who else potentially is scum if grim/cala wasn't scum.  I stated this I believe on day 4 and Day 5.  This literally means that I was still thinking about other possibilities but I STILL BELIEVED that Cala/Grim were the scummiest two from my perspective.  So I ask once more, Why is it scummy that I chose to push those two?  You seem to make it sound like I am FORCED to change reads each day phase, but that is false and not correct.  Grim and Cala did not drastically become townie day 3, nor did that change on day 4.  In fact based on Grim's play moving into day 3/4/5 I believe he was growing scummier, why would I change my opinion, my scum reads, and my thoughts based on YOUR playstyle that I am SUPPOSED to change my reads and thought process.  Going into self meta here I am generally KNOWN for tunneling specific people OR BEING CRAZY PARANOID and having my reads all over the place.  I have specifically stated multiple times during this game I'm attempting to NOT second guess my self repeatedly.   Right now it really feels like you are scum reading me because you are attempting to force your playstyle and thought process onto other people, and that's not how mafia is played.  I am not required to be as waffly as you have been and saying I'm scummy for it seems especially weak in my own opinion.  It's also EXTREMELY hard to argue against.  Like what else can I say except for, "That's not my thought process, that's not how I play, I will not react the same way you do to any given situation."

This bothers me a lot because both of the arguments that you are stating against me are things that Cala has done as well since late day 2/early day 3, yet you don't appear to be bringing that up at all.

 

Now WRT to your first paragraph, no I can't remember a specific example, but I also don't even remember what happened in my last game outside of the fact that I claimed doc day 2 about 5 hours into the phase or something.  I do however know that I PERSONALLY have begged to not be lynched as scum.  I have also as scum ABUSED WIFOM multiple times because people seem to just give free town reads for it.  I have both used 'good' wifom which isn't by any means harmful, as well as having used 'bad' wifom which affects the players during the game so they have less fun.  A prime example of this was from years ago in ICBINSFMM3 or whatever where I threw a fake hissy fit during the game as scum, self voted my self and acted like I just didn't give a fuck anymore.  WIFOM is WIFOM for a reason.  And during *ylo it's at it's strongest and you should not be town reading anything that could be seen as wifom for that reason.

[C. C.]

i am responding to your points- even if Cala isn't pushing other people, I can see that she's thinking about it and it's a process of determination in her head. it feels more natural to me than your posts.

also you're not "forced' to change your reads but it doesn't feel like you're taking extra things that happen into account. like on d2 after rumor died you literally did not even consider that at all as a townie point for cala. anything that was even a bit townie was just "this could be WIFOM" or whatever. it's like everything is scummy and there's no nuance. this is just going back to my arguments from back then that I dropped because I didn't feel confident. i still don't, but I need to lynch somebody.

[Cú Chulainn]

I'm not generally the type of person to look at associative reads all that often generally.  Especially since meta has been brought up a few times, more by cala than by you.  If you want to go check out some of my other games feel free to do so.  I normally look at things I find scummy and don't entirely look at associative reads until it's pointed out to me, and even then it's not garunteed to change my opinion on the matter.

You say Cala isn't pushing other people but she's thinking about it and you can see the process in her head.  I would please like you to quote some of those so I can see that.  As well as prove to me that I haven't been doing that same thing because I'm pretty sure I even stated some of my thoughts towards Sally potentially being scum Vs grim/Cala.  I still didn't see it as stronger than my Cala or my Grim read at the point in time.  If I have 10 fucking reasons to believe Person A and B are potential scum and only fucking 2 reasons to believe Person C is scum, why would I even follow that read?  Like logically speaking I would like an actual logical answer to that question.  If you believe Person A or B is scum by a far higher chance than Person C what person in their right mind would then go "I'm gonna go after Person C instead."  ???????????????????????????????  Like I don't get this argument.  You're saying I'm not 'forced' to change yet you are still stating the same thing "You didn't change your read based on the rumor interaction." I AM NOT REQUIRED TO NOR DO I FEEL THERE WAS A NEED TO.  If you think I'm scum with Grim/rumor then on the flip side, why isn't Cala Scum with Rumor/Grim?  Cala asked you this same question basically and I don't remember if you actually responded to it or not.

I did not just ignore the entire Rumor/Cala interaction, I did not drastically change my read because of the interaction.  Why? Because I felt what Cala had done all previously and up to that point was more scummy than changing my entire read based off of one single interaction.  PERIOD.  I did not just shrug it off simply because it's WIFOM, all I did was state I believed it could be distancing, and I still stand by that argument.

[C. C.]

well you have townie interactions with grim, suspicious interactions with rumor, and suspicious play otherwise, cala has townie interactions with rumor, suspicious interactions, with grim, and suspicious play otherwise. it's a matter of judging and balancing and comparing and i don't want to make it seem like i'm 100% sure you're scum cuz I'm not. but I've gone back and forth over it a lot and this is just where I'm at

obviously you shouldn't go for someone you think is scummier. and i'm not saying you had to actually change your overall evaluation of cala. what I meant to say was that it didn't seem like you were even including the rumor interactions in your thought process. like you'd already decided she was scum and when people brought up the rumor interactions you were just like "whatever"

running out of time will respond to the rest of it after

[Cú Chulainn]

Why is Cala interaction with Rumor townie?  I can only see it as townie if you BELIEVE Cala is town.

If you look at it from the perspective of Scum!Cala then her interactions with Rumor are NOT good.

[C. C.]

I do agree that the interactions are iffy from Cala's perspective because her reasons for not pushing Rumor for Rumor's shitty case are bad.

But if you look at it from the perspective of scum!Rumor, the interactions are good, because she was like "shit everybody suspects me I have to produce content" and she chose to push Rumor. She pushed her buddy on D1 but was under nowhere near the amount of scrutiny, and never actually voted Grim. and I know for sure Rumor was scum; I don't have to believe anything.

[Estelle]

Whatever the fuck I just ate wants out.  Sure hope everything else in the fridge didn't spoil because of that outage.

This is the first mention of Honeybottoms that I see out of Maria.  This is a late D1 reads list by Maria - Honeybottoms is listed as town.

Back to the list thing that Brineybeard put out at the end of the last phase.  I think it's pretty telling that the three answers are remarkably similar.  The time at which we posted indicates that none of us could've copied each other's logic.  I'd already put a lot of thought into the various N6 kill scenarios, so I was pretty surprised to see the two other answers appear so quickly.

[C. C.]

cala does talk about rumor a couple posts before that, here:

On 2/3/2018 at 11:31 PM, Cala Maria said:

I see; I felt like that kind of comment would give Werner the flexibility to commit to a read later in the game, but I understand that when you're on page 2 there's not a lot to be expected.

My take on honey is that she's more likely to be town here. I feel like going for "Grim shut the door for a Kahl rebuttal" over the obvious part where Grim was passive initially and didn't make any committed read on Werner is more complex and likely to come from town over scum wanting to get by. Do you disagree?

 

She was pretty consistent about townreading Rumor. How does that affect your opinion of her alignment?

I think the fact that the answers to those questions were all pretty similar basically means that everybody had a good understanding of the WIFOM possibilities last night, which means we can safely take it as null.

[Estelle]

Not scumreading Maria based off of her Honeybottoms read, because Honeybottoms was a gigantic pain in the ass to read.

What I'm interested in is early Grim posts, mainly D2.  This is when he was trying his hardest.  Thus, the associative reads are stronger.

D2 wallpost.  Note how he treats Honeybottoms.  Since he had a lot of catching up to do, due to his D1 circumstances, I suspect that he'd treat both his scumbuddies the same.  The other person that has a read similar to Honeybottoms?  Maria.  Meanwhile, Baroness is a scum read.

On 2/4/2018 at 7:13 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

Cagney reminded me, forgot to include it above since I'm in a bad mood (which is also to do with out of game stuff), but I found the jump from Cala specifically asking if Briney thought a comment I'd made earlier was alignment indicative (and agreeing with him that it wasn't) previously to putting me as one of their top two lynch targets is weird. They mention that they were hoping I did more but I don't... really feel like they thought I was scummy before so it's hard for me to follow the thought process

Here's another early reference to Maria.  Same weird waffling.

On 2/7/2018 at 12:17 AM, Rumor Honeybottoms said:

from a skim of today's pickings:

beppi and matchstick feel town vs town purely off of tone

hilda solidifies my townread on her with the post she made higher up on this page

the fire that werner's bringing makes me lean town but i should probably actually read all those words at some point lmao

brineybeard is like blatantly town and i wouldn't be surprised if he got doc saved or something

not 100% sure what to make of wally. low quantity/high quality posts is easier for scum to fake than the reverse. hasn't really given me any super strong reason to read him either direction. will call it null for now.

not sure i like cala maria's latest post. first paragraph is useless fluff. second paragraph is a piggybacked read. third paragraph is what strikes me as the oddest, tbh. "i'm fine with this person voting you but i don't have thoughts on you yet but you'd better not do x" is pretty waffly. almost reads to me like she knows i'm town and would rather have others mislynch me than have to hop onto the wagon herself

Random quote by the resident bee.  The last paragraph has a very different tone from the rest of the post.  Think of it as someone who's talking about something, then suddenly speeds up their words.  I don't think Honeybottoms believed her case on Maria.  What I can't tell is whether or not her tone is off because she truly didn't want to see her scumbuddy lynched, or because she knew that she was leading a mislynch.  Maria already had some attention on her, so being picked for Honeybottom's deflection is null in my books.

I'm still not feeling Baroness as scum. Grim sat on her since the beginning of D2, and didn't budge.

[C. C.]

yes he did? Grim voted Sally on D4 iirc. He also didn't start voting Baroness until halfway through D2; he was voting Beppi before that. but yes I do agree that Grim interactions are generally in favour of Baroness.

i'm confused why you think this is null:

2 hours ago, Werner Werman said:

Maria already had some attention on her, so being picked for Honeybottom's deflection is null in my books.

if Cala already had attention on her, then being picked for pressure by Rumor is a stronger point in her favour, bc she was piling pressure on a buddy where it already existed, so it was more likely to lead to a lynch rather than just distancing.

The reason I'm giving somewhat more weight to the Cala/Rumor interactions over the Grim/Baroness ones is that Grim had already been pushing Baroness from before, so stopping his push against Baroness at the start of D3, when other people were finding Baroness scummy after the Rumor flip would have looked suspicious had Baroness flipped scum. In comparison I don't think there's a similar mitigating factor for Rumor's push on Cala. Rumor hadn't even been finding Cala scummy on D1, so she was under no obligation to push that as her counterwagon.

[C. C.]

I don't think I'll be around much tomorrow so I'm going to vote. 

##Vote: Baroness von Bon Bon