shinori game Husbando/Waifu mafia Day 3!

[Cú Chulainn]

who ate we lynching today

[Cú Chulainn]

the people in this game who have been like "I have a comfirmable role" as if that makes them confirmed town makes me thinking emoji 

when shinori said it wasn't *ylo He WAS taking into consideration poison, right? because this does mean either poison only has 2 shots OR poisons are fake /:

what did rain claim.... are we still lynching her today

[Marisa Kirisame]

I was stubborn about Kamina last day and unfortunately it was wrong, but the problem I'm having is that it feels like I'm talking to myself in many intervals. I'm not getting a lot of feedback I desire to match prompt decisions, I'm simply not a miracle worker. My own bias and stubbornness is still leaning on lynching Rain but if there are people who disagree they should speak up.

[Marisa Kirisame]

The poison being fake would be a long haul by both Nemu/All Might that probably wouldn't pan out, especially because Nemu would have to explain why she didn't die and it's been confirmed to not be *LYO. I can see All Might knowing of the poison from his scumbud and using that as leverage, but not with Nemu. It's pretty much confirmed that Rain is not the poisoner, so from my perspective that just makes her ITP. Does it feel like I'm repeating myself? I probably am. We can lynch Rain under this assumption, and if by chance it's wrong I'd only feel stupid. I guess where my bias inherently lies is the fact I don't believe ITP is poisoner, and rather it's a scum role and that All Might is trying to gain credit by knowing it exists. He said he had to turn on his lynchproof but why does that exactly stop the poison from killing him? I think All Might could be backing himself into a corner in this regard because if Nemu does die to poison, then it confirms it's existence.

 I think if somehow Nemu flips scum from poison then I will definitely re-think, but  again I speak purely from a biased standpoint. I've had other theories but not lynching Rain here just means I won't be able to confirm/deny these theories as there still needs to be an explanation for the lack of the kills. I think we bite the bullet here and let some things get resolved overnight as well, and we have wiggle room given we are not in *YLO.

[Aizen]

@Nemu Kurotsuchi
Let me know when you're around I want to talk shop with you on reads and all that.

[Marisa Kirisame]

Btw, there's no explanation as to why All Might isn't dead by poison now. Being lynchproof does not equate to deathproof. He should be dead to poison by now and I hate having to equate mechanics to reasoning because it's not my strong suit but..

I just think he's trying to buy more time for his mate, not sure who that is exactly but it's something we'll have to found out! If All Might did not slip by saying he has to activate it (and he activated today and not last night) I wouldn't be coming to this conclusion. I'm surprised nobody else is calling him out on this fact honestly

[Aizen]

2 hours ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

1 mafia, 1 itp

If there were 2 mafia and 1 itp, wed be in MYLO (which is the point of the analysis) Were not in mylo, so there can only be 1 mafia (unless I messed up somewhere)

This site doesn't do role flips but perhaps some protectives died along the way? I do think if it's 3 mafia (and that seems likely cause I've never seen a game with 2 scum 1 itp with numbers this large) and we're assuming the poison came from scum I would agree on it being shot based because this game would be based more on night actions then it would mafia itself.

2 hours ago, Rain Nijika said:

If there's 3 anti town left, I'd say 2 of the following 3 things needs to be going on:

- All Might lost his vote and is anti town (or anti town lost voting power through some other means, but unlikely).

- Anti town doesn't have a second shot anymore (as in, mafia or itp lost their shot but can maybe still poison).

- Nemu is scum (which likely implies they're lying about being poisoned, but scum actually being poisoned is also a pretty valid reason for it not being MyLo).

Nemu being scum and poisoned explains it on it's own actually, but I don't find that part too likely.

I think allmight is the itp given role reasons but I don't get how he could lose his vote? 

[Aizen]

1 hour ago, Rain Nijika said:

Honestly though, I still don't wanna lynch Nemu before the poison can prove her innocence, and All Might is still unlynchable.

I still think Aizen/Estelle is the scum team tbh, so I'm just going to vote there for now:

##Vote: Aizen

I'll be back in a few hours to talk more, but we should start thinking about who to lynch now.

This is weak in the sense you should be showing why me and Estelle are scum more then just saying we're scum. I think you're much more likely to be lynched over both of us and you're not fighting it at all. If you're town show why we're scum so people can change there minds and start to scumread us. You called me scum before right? Bring back those reasons and state why my today is scum. So is Estelle. You got stuff to do here Rain 

[Marisa Kirisame]

2 minutes ago, Aizen said:

I think allmight is the itp given role reasons but I don't get how he could lose his vote? 

This is where we disagree. Can you give more on why you think this? I still think he's anti-town regardless

[Aizen]

54 minutes ago, Cú Chulainn said:

the people in this game who have been like "I have a comfirmable role" as if that makes them confirmed town makes me thinking emoji 

when shinori said it wasn't *ylo He WAS taking into consideration poison, right? because this does mean either poison only has 2 shots OR poisons are fake /:

what did rain claim.... are we still lynching her today

Can you give me more details on the ylo? Does your site say when it's LYLO or something?  I would hope we're still lynching rain today.

[Aizen]

1 minute ago, Marisa Kirisame said:

This is where we disagree. Can you give more on why you think this? I still think he's anti-town regardless

I agree that he's not town and he would be lynched today if I had a say in it but we can't do that. I can see the mafia having a 1 shot poison all might faking it acting like he's deathproof and then Nemu is poisoned and it supports All mights claim. Or he could really be deathproof and that seems like an ITP. Regardless I think All might/Rain are not town and I'm leaning on shiki being the 3rd.

[Aizen]

Does Poison normally kill you at the end of the day phase or night phase on this site? 

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

17 minutes ago, Aizen said:

@Nemu Kurotsuchi
Let me know when you're around I want to talk shop with you on reads and all that.

I'm here but kind of a mess readswise

[Aizen]

I wish I knew more about the mechs because that would help a lot with the whole poison deal. Although it mostly revolves itself. Does Shiki being the poisoner make sense? The people who have to be it are Me Estelle and Shiki right? We can check in us 3 since that has at least 1 conf not town.

[Aizen]

1 minute ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

I'm here but kind of a mess readswise

Talk to me on Estelle and Shiki Estelle has been one of my top townreads and still kinda is so I think Shiki is the poisoner. But I'd like to hear your viewpoint on things. I'm going to look at this like you're town given you resolve yourself at the end of the day anyway. 

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

11 minutes ago, Aizen said:

Can you give me more details on the ylo? Does your site say when it's LYLO or something?  I would hope we're still lynching rain today.

We would be notified if it were potential MYLO/LYLO (see rules)

 

[Aizen]

Do we know if that takes into account poison and an ITP?

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

3 minutes ago, Aizen said:

Talk to me on Estelle and Shiki Estelle has been one of my top townreads and still kinda is so I think Shiki is the poisoner. But I'd like to hear your viewpoint on things. I'm going to look at this like you're town given you resolve yourself at the end of the day anyway. 

I'm in the same boat as you I think, I've been townreading Estelle for a long time as well and nothing but PoE is really changing my mind on it. Shiki's nightposts were fine, but not good enough to push him over Estelle imo. I also think Estelle is relatively cleared from being mafia due to C.C. interactions, so she can most likely only be ITP.

This for me pushes it into Shiki being more scummy than Estelle. I was kinda hoping they'd show up today and clear themselves up a little, but eh.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

5 minutes ago, Aizen said:

Do we know if that takes into account poison and an ITP?

I'm almost certain it does.

[Aizen]

1 minute ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

I'm in the same boat as you I think, I've been townreading Estelle for a long time as well and nothing but PoE is really changing my mind on it. Shiki's nightposts were fine, but not good enough to push him over Estelle imo. I also think Estelle is relatively cleared from being mafia due to C.C. interactions, so she can most likely only be ITP.

This for me pushes it into Shiki being more scummy than Estelle. I was kinda hoping they'd show up today and clear themselves up a little, but eh.

Yeah you summed things up better then I could.

[Aizen]

If it's not lyo does lynching me answer the most questions for people? I wouldn't mind it as long as we checked Shiki for poison and got rain/all might killed. I know if Nemu does flip town (and right now given poison that seems likely) it's gonna draw a lot of heat to me and me being in a lyo situation wouldn't be the best so we can take that away if needed.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

20 minutes ago, Aizen said:

This site doesn't do role flips but perhaps some protectives died along the way? I do think if it's 3 mafia (and that seems likely cause I've never seen a game with 2 scum 1 itp with numbers this large) and we're assuming the poison came from scum I would agree on it being shot based because this game would be based more on night actions then it would mafia itself.

I think allmight is the itp given role reasons but I don't get how he could lose his vote? 

RE: the first, looking at the role names of the flips, I'd say no real protectives, but 1 or 2 redirect roles have flipped (Olivier could be like a busdriver, Sham a hijacker maybe?)

RE: the second, He was talking about how one of his four abilities, he didn't know which, had a reversed effect. One of his abilities was a mayor I think, so the opposite would be a 0- or negative voter.

[Aizen]

I don't believe I know what the mayor role is. Is it like a double voter

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

2 minutes ago, Aizen said:

If it's not lyo does lynching me answer the most questions for people? I wouldn't mind it as long as we checked Shiki for poison and got rain/all might killed. I know if Nemu does flip town (and right now given poison that seems likely) it's gonna draw a lot of heat to me and me being in a lyo situation wouldn't be the best so we can take that away if needed.

I'm not actually sure rolecop would show the poisoner ability, as I think in some past games rolecops have only shown part of the abilities of scum (the part they could fakeclaim). Scum members could be like inventor+strongman and only inventor would show up. And if poison is the factional ability of like an ITP it would certainly not show up. I'm relatively new though, others know this better than me. Or maybe Cu's role PM tells him this.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

4 minutes ago, Aizen said:

I don't believe I know what the mayor role is. Is it like a double voter

yeah

Come to think of it, both Rain and All Might being mayors is kind of weird. (So all might lying or the mayor being the inverted one seems reasonable)