Exactly how smart is Nemesis?

[Dark Holy Elf]

15 hours ago, RainbowMoon said:

There's all the possibility that Nemesis's entire regime was riddled with Agarthan imposters; replacing all his most trusted advisors, generals, vassals, servants and God knows who else to secretly influence his every tactical, political and economic decision; and he didn't even know it.

It's possible but extraordinarily unlikely given what we know.
-They couldn't replace any of the Elites, who were likely some of his closer advisors
-It's difficult to replace people in general, or they would do it more than they do. In particular, if they could replace people so easily, they could also just replace people en masse in ancient Adrestia and control both nations in the war.
-Logic suggests that if replacement were really common at any point in history, that people would eventually figure out about them. Since not even Rhea knows such a thing is possible, it's likely a trick they've used very sparingly over the years (if they even developed it before relatively recently).

15 hours ago, RainbowMoon said:

Duke Aegir wasn't replaced, though. And look at what sort of atrocity he was persuaded to greenlight, simply because he was a corrupt enough man and "Lord Arundel" told him to.

Duke Aegir was reliant on Arundel for his power, though. As Prime Minister, rather than a powerful monarch, he only ruled because the nobility of Adrestia preferred him to Ionius. Notably, as soon as Arundel (+ Hevring, Bergliez, Gerth) withdraws his support for Aegir, he immediately falls. In other words, since Aegir clearly needed Arundel, it would have been easy for Arundel to make certain, "small" demands, such as greenlighting the experiments on the Imperial family, in exchange for his continued support.

Nemesis, once established, would not have been reliant on an Agarthan in the same way, for reasons I already outlined.

15 hours ago, RainbowMoon said:

Also, are we certain that Cornelia was replaced too?

I don't think we have any positive proof about it, and you raise some interesting points about the timeline maybe not lining up perfectly. That said, either she's an Agarthan, or she's so deeply and knowingly entwined with them that she might as well be one. Consider that:
-She has the Agarthan Technology personal skill, which is otherwise only seen on major Agarthan characters.
-She employs Titanus dolls, Agarthan technology otherwise only seen in Shambhala
-During CF, Edelgard specifically targets her because she is an Agarthan (or a very direct ally), and Cornelia deduces that Edelgard is doing this, for this reason.
-She speaks of the "Kingdom" as something she does not consider herself part of, i.e. "Titanus, my lovely dolls... Seek out the enemy and destroy them! And if the chance presents itself, I wouldn't mind being rid of those unsightly Kingdom forces too!"
-She references being part of the conspiracy to manipulate Edelgard.

If by some chance she was never replaced, then she's just a power-hungry human who knows exactly what she is doing and is not being manipulated, so she's not much like Aegir (or any interpretation of Nemesis either of us have floated)

15 hours ago, RainbowMoon said:

Edelgard had two things though, that Nemesis didn't appear to. A moral compass, and greater ambitions.

Mm, I don't think we know enough to speculate about Nemesis's moral compass, but I definitely disagree about the ambitions! This man was a king, the leader of a nation and was willing to risk his life in war to maintain or expand his power. I'd also argue it was strongly implied that he believed humans should not be ruled by the Nabateans (it explains his title, it explains his actions, and it explains why Rhea sees so much parallel between Nemesis and her enemies in CF).

Edited August 4, 2021 by Dark Holy Elf

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5 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

It's difficult to replace people in general, or they would do it more than they do. In particular, if they could replace people so easily, they could also just replace people en masse in ancient Adrestia and control both nations in the war.

This is true, but keep in mind the example I gave was more of a logical worst case scenario than what likely actually happened. Realistically speaking though, I doubt it would've taken much more than a few strategic replacements for the Agarthans' influence to take root in Nemesis's regime without any suspicions. I mean, just look at the bloody mess they were able to make of both Adrestia and Faerghus present day with only one known mole in either territory. At the start of the game, we're looking at an Adrestian Empire that practically belongs to Thales. And the only two people who are even aware of this are Edelgard and Hubert, all because Thales blew his cover to Edelgard when performing the Crest experiments. If Thales hadn't done that, then who's to say anybody in the Empire would've ever found out about his manipulations.

5 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Logic suggests that if replacement were really common at any point in history, that people would eventually figure out about them. Since not even Rhea knows such a thing is possible, it's likely a trick they've used very sparingly over the years (if they even developed it before relatively recently).

Well, Rhea is pretty much the poster child for "head-in-sand management" when it comes to situations, like proof of Agarthan activity or the ugly reality of the Crest system, that could potentially expose her lies. I mean, take a look at how she handled the incident that supposedly created Aliell, the Valley of Torment. Garreg Mach would've been annihilated right there and then if that javelin of light hadn't bounced off the shield and blown up where it did. And yet Rhea barely even reacts. She just bullshits up a cover story for why there's suddenly a smoldering crater adorning the Kingdom-Alliance border and continues no further investigation into what happened or who was responsible. Even if she's somehow figured out that the Agarthans are able to kill and replace whoever they please, that's certainly not something she's about to acknowledge openly.

5 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Duke Aegir was reliant on Arundel for his power, though. As Prime Minister, rather than a powerful monarch, he only ruled because the nobility of Adrestia preferred him to Ionius. Notably, as soon as Arundel (+ Hevring, Bergliez, Gerth) withdraws his support for Aegir, he immediately falls. In other words, since Aegir clearly needed Arundel, it would have been easy for Arundel to make certain, "small" demands, such as greenlighting the experiments on the Imperial family, in exchange for his continued support.

Had Aegir valued ethics over bolstering his own political clout, he could've simply refused to carry out Arundel's demands and dealt with the personal consequences. Arundel got his way there because he knew Aegir was enough of a selfish dick that he'd immediately be on board. Thales found a person in power who he could easily move with his words, and wormed his way in there like any good Agarthan would.

5 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

I don't think we have any positive proof about it, and you raise some interesting points about the timeline maybe not lining up perfectly. That said, either she's an Agarthan, or she's so deeply and knowingly entwined with them that she might as well be one. Consider that:
-She has the Agarthan Technology personal skill, which is otherwise only seen on major Agarthan characters.
-She employs Titanus dolls, Agarthan technology otherwise only seen in Shambhala
-During CF, Edelgard specifically targets her because she is an Agarthan (or a very direct ally), and Cornelia deduces that Edelgard is doing this, for this reason.
-She speaks of the "Kingdom" as something she does not consider herself part of, i.e. "Titanus, my lovely dolls... Seek out the enemy and destroy them! And if the chance presents itself, I wouldn't mind being rid of those unsightly Kingdom forces too!"
-She references being part of the conspiracy to manipulate Edelgard.

If by some chance she was never replaced, then she's just a power-hungry human who knows exactly what she is doing and is not being manipulated, so she's not much like Aegir (or any interpretation of Nemesis either of us have floated)

You're absolutely right in saying she's involved herself so closely with the Agarthans' plans that it ultimately doesn't matter to the plot if she's really Agarthan or not. I was just using her specific case, should she have been the real deal, as an example of how effectively the Agarthans can play to the corrupt people in governments and persuade them to aid in their "cause."

5 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Mm, I don't think we know enough to speculate about Nemesis's moral compass, but I definitely disagree about the ambitions! This man was a king, the leader of a nation and was willing to risk his life in war to maintain or expand his power. I'd also argue it was strongly implied that he believed humans should not be ruled by the Nabateans (it explains his title, it explains his actions, and it explains why Rhea sees so much parallel between Nemesis and her enemies in CF).

The only issue is, that at the time of Nemesis's uprising, the Nabateans really weren't ruling over anyone. Sothis's war against Agartha was long over, the remaining Agarthans had been in hiding ever since and humainity was effectively ruling itself. If memory serves me correctly, Rhea had a small church in Enbarr: a regular non-theocratic church. But otherwise the Nabateans were more or less just there, not hurting anybody. Any distrust or violence towards them at that point, like Nemesis and his followers demonstrated through their relentless slaughter, was fueled by nothing but plain old racism. No desire to be free from Nabatean rule, no feelings of oppression or betrayal, just "humans good, dragons not human, kill dragons." I think that alone says enough about Nemesis's moral compass to tell us that he lacked a proper one.

As for his greater ambitions, I'm not seeing very much beyond Nabatean genocide, which is exactly what the Agarthans want. As far as I can tell, Nemesis would've had no qualms whatsoever about accepting their assistance, assuming again that he even knew about them. They literally wanted the same thing, unlike the case later on with Edelgard.

Edited August 4, 2021 by RainbowMoon

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

On 8/4/2021 at 5:00 PM, RainbowMoon said:

Had Aegir valued ethics over bolstering his own political clout, he could've simply refused to carry out Arundel's demands and dealt with the personal consequences. Arundel got his way there because he knew Aegir was enough of a selfish dick that he'd immediately be on board. Thales found a person in power who he could easily move with his words, and wormed his way in there like any good Agarthan would.

The "personal consequences" would have been Duke Aegir getting killed and replaced by an Agarthan, LOL. Like, sure, Duke Aegir was a bad and power-hungry person. But let's not pretend that making a moral grandstand after the fact would have stopped Thales in his mission.

On 8/4/2021 at 11:30 AM, Dark Holy Elf said:

I don't think we have any positive proof about it, and you raise some interesting points about the timeline maybe not lining up perfectly. That said, either she's an Agarthan, or she's so deeply and knowingly entwined with them that she might as well be one. Consider that:

Adding to this list, Sylvain mentions pre-skip that Cornelia "must be very old by now". Yet the one we encounter post-skip is the picture of youth and beauty. Not proof-positive of being a body snatchee, but it is mighty suspicious. 

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2 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

The "personal consequences" would have been Duke Aegir getting killed and replaced by an Agarthan, LOL. Like, sure, Duke Aegir was a bad and power-hungry person. But let's not pretend that making a moral grandstand after the fact would have stopped Thales in his mission.

Yeah, I suppose you're right, it wouldn't have really made a difference if Aegir hadn't complied. But the fact that they could've replaced him too if that had been the case certainly does speak to their abilites.

The issue with trying to determine Nemesis's merit as a leader though, is that there's no way to definitively tell how deeply the Agarthans were involved in the growth of his regime. We can only speculate based on how we see them operate within the Empire and the Kingdom, with varying opinions. I think it's safe to say though, based on what we do know about him, that Nemesis was undoubtedly determined in his not-so-noble conquest of Fódlan and had no shortage of loyal followers who seemed to genuinely believe in him. To what extent the Agarthans were responsible for this is entirely debatable, but either way I'd agree that Nemesis had a bit more in his head than your average bandit, for better or for worse.