Persona 3 Mafia - Game Cancelled - Mass Destronktion

[Eurykins]

**Edit: "townie or ITP or possible other scum teams/groups" (if they exist in the set-up).

[They only have knowledge of the people directly tied to their alliance/win con.]

[Junk]

Yep which is exactly why I cannot be scum though. Otherwise why would I ask this question? You all could be oh well he is faking it but still I did look like my thinking was flawed I would say. I know I may look I am lying on this internet. But I assure you this was natural reaction.

[Green Poet]

Are you claiming PGO?

No; I'm not claiming anything beyond what I precisely said, nothing more.

Yep which is exactly why I cannot be scum though. Otherwise why would I ask this question? You all could be oh well he is faking it but still I did look like my thinking was flawed I would say. I know I may look I am lying on this internet. But I assure you this was natural reaction.

I'm rather inclined to believe this. The rest of Junko's posts look newbie enough, so I don't think scum!Junko would try to pull WIFOM like that.

[Eurykins]

@Junko: Hmmm. I don't think that people would've necessarily have seen that question and question it's legitimacy as a 'natural reaction' (at least I don't- if others did, then I stand corrected). But it may have been other factors in ED1 that may make them question if you're more likely to be newbie!town or newbie!scum in this game.

(And sorry, apparently my mind immediately registered you asking that question instead of just merely a reference/read on you, hence my response, lol.)

*Willing to agree with GP, as Junko has been asking/poking around with questions I've seen as genuine newbie!townie efforts as the day phase has gone on.

[euklyd]

Sky Paladin you should claim.

[Wen Yang]

Whar euk, said, before the hammer falls.

[euklyd]

I looked through Wen's ISO and although his early posts still ping me for suspecting SB for no reason, the reaction to the vote-switching role felt genuine. I think that the two most likely reasons for the vote-switching role being used as it was are:

1) Sky going for a quickhammer

2) Mafia trying to frame Sky

In neither scenario does it really make sense for a scum member to change their vote right after the role's usage? dunno

This is a good point imo. Although there are enough things about the Mass Persuader that don't make sense that I would be willing to bet that it could just be another sign of careless use of the Persuader, actually.

Still, should be considered.

[Terrador]

...I swear, everything Junko's been doing is wrong. Rushing the hammer is wrong, assuming he's squeaky-clean is wrong, refusing to talk about who he thinks is scum is wrong...

...and yet, this is just too bad to be scum. You know how a movie can be good, or okay, or bad, or so bad that it's actually okay? Junko's been creeping into the final category for the last couple of hours. That said, still wouldn't really trust the guy until Sky flips mafia.

[Bluedoom]

Well, assuming both Sky and Junko are mafia, Junko's bussing pretty damn hard--much more so than would ever make sense, and I doubt anyone new would have the stone-cold brass ones to make a play like that even if they did think it was the right move.

Sky flipping Nyx would pretty much clear Junko in my book.

As far as her early Day 1 play not making sense... waffling and not getting much done is consistent with newb!mafia and newb!scum. Not all new scum hide--maybe Junko was advised to just post like he was town, and actively so. Why would Junko be clear right now...?

Yeah heads up Terrador's probably mafia if Sky flips town. He's trying to line up lynches.

[Terrador]

Yeah heads up Terrador's probably mafia if Sky flips town. He's trying to line up lynches.

...no, that's not the case. I'm saying that that would clear Junko. I say nothing about the reverse, which could just as easily be a misread as a scumtunnel. That's not even remotely lining up a lynch, man.

[Bluedoom]

True but considering that you're going on about Junko's quickhammering idea even though he's new to mafia and has no idea why that's bad(srsly don't think its bad in this case) it doesn't take a genius to figure out that you'll probably vote him for such shenaningans next D phase if Sky flips town.

Ofc, I thought you had said more about Junko but apparently I was wrong, there are a couple or three posts addressing Junko.

[Shinori]

Wen's list post I don't really like. He said he was neutral on almost every single person or that he needed more info, or that he was neutral, leaning one way on a few people.

Hi I have ten minutes in between catching buses. There is twenty pages of garbage and I only had one reread the whole time.

SB claimed anti-town ITP I mean why you don't want to lynch him? He said that he had a seperate win condition and deliberately hid that condition from us so that he could pursue his ITP win condition.

Of course he said he was harmless. Why would he say he was dangerous :D

OK so on the reread:

I have scum read on Junko and Green Poet

Junko because generally awful posting and contradictory statements

Green poet because she went from 'Sky is town' to 'oh yeah Sky is totally scum' with what seemed to be no basis for her change of opinion

Anyway I don't have any time to deal with this right now and I will not be back here for hours. See you then. Or not.

STOP MISREPPING SB.

^ supporting GP and Blue on this notion.

As said before, being too open with actions/theoretical targets with any sort of skill (role cops, protection, roleblocks, etc.) just makes it easier for scum to work around townie night actions.

Yeah this thing is important.

Still really not liking Wen all that much and I really feel like he's posting a lot but he's honestly not doing much.

Also I have a request. Can we please not post tons of really small posts all over the place from like literally everyone. This is becoming a pain to read. I've already started skimming and that's not good cause then people will say I'm scum.

D=

[Wen Yang]

Going off in 20-30 mins, back in 14-15 hours unless neighbor is leechable again tonight~

[Mitsuki]

I've just finished reading the thread, and I have a request to everyone. Please. PLEASE. Please stop posting irrelevant shit. I'm seeing a ton of posts to say thanks/you're welcome, posts JUST to say that they were cut after they were cut, about a full page of posts saying that I'm doublevoter, and people stating their views on everyting over and over when they are not saying anything new. Stop it, it's not helping anyone. It's going to be a pain to read back and understand what's going on just because of those posts you made being all over the place. It's so damn anti-town. Please focus on making your opinions clear and simple.

That said, nobody is hammering early, I still have plenty to say and I'm sure that many other people do as well.

Also had Breezy's back after apparent preconceptions he had, even though I can't pin down where, specifically, she said beforehand that there could be a random factor. Care to point out where?

Here.

On Shinori: I had a bad feeling on him when I went to sleep, and his new posts make me think he's scum.

His posts overall are filled with needlessy huge quotes and replies that say nothing. I think this is different from people who are spamming, because those people are making many posts, while Shinori is making the normal amount of posts in a game but filling them with everything he can. This is something that scum would be motivated to do, to seem active and contributing.

This post contains two examples of what I mean by unuseful replies.

His Paladin case (here) is based on the hypothesis that he thinks Paladin is scared of SB and wants specifically him lynched, which is a really weak reason to suspect someone, let alone make him your main suspect and wanting him lynched just because of it. What would Paladin's scum intent be?

Scum wouldn't want someone specifical lynched unless there was a good reason for it, so plainly suspecting someone on being scared is wrong. Shinori attempted to explain it based on roles but dismissed it in the same post.

I think it's scummy, and not only bad, because I can't get why someone would genuinely bring up those reasons to say someone is scum.

The only non-scummy bit of his case is saying that Paladin is saying he's tunneling (which I'm sure was pointed out before). However, to people that say someone is tunelling, it's too early to say someone is tunelling when ~24 hours have passed from the beginning of the game.

I think Shinori's Paladin vote is just an easy vote on the easiest wagon ever that nobody will notice is scummy because everybody is focusing on repeating over and over how scummy Paladin is, so why put attention on someone who tries to do the same thing as you.

I don't think this is a bus and scum would probably not be bussing their scumbuddies like that if they were going to be lynched just after one of them was killed.

If Shinori is scum I think that clears Paladin.

This post is also bad. Shinori suspected Refa before, on the first post I linked so I'm guessing he's providing it as evidence to say Refa is scum. If he thought those two posts were relevant why say it in that way and not explain why this makes Refa scummy? It looks like scum trying to point out stuff to get someone suspected, but being unable to explain why that evidence is scummy because it's not, and leaving people to get their own conclusions because of it.

@Shinori: could you explain why those two posts say something about Refa's alignment?

##Unvote

##Vote: Shinori

I'd like someone (ONE person) to make a summary post on what the case on Paladin is, because it really feels like people are suspecting him on a hard confirmation bias right now. I get that some things can be seen as scummy, but I don't think it confirms him as scum, neither he should be lynched based on that. Specially regarding how the wagon/suspicion grew, and his actions this game don't differ from his town meta (neither from his scum meta) from what I recall.

I should probably point out for people who don't remember that my Paladin suspicion was solely PoE on the vote change thing, and I now consider the evidence to think he's town is stronger than that.

[Sky_Paladin]

There are pages and pages and pages of stuff and most of it is 'Sky is scum because ???' and Junko saying "Let's not quickhammer WAIT LETS QUICKHAMMER" and a notable disappearance from SB.

I may have attributed the change in personality to the wrong person; I don't know most of you here so it's hard to get a feel on who is the same person and what their motivation is.

I don't get it.

SB said that he has an anti-town win condition. If he fails that condition, then he will become town. If he succeeds, he will leave the game. He's stated his intention to not reveal his condition so he can pursue it.

I voted for SB because I felt this was a lie; we know there is supposed to be only one anti-town group and that is scum. Therefore for him to have an anti-town win condition, he should be scum. Yes? No?

I am saying that SB said he has an anti-town win condition because he is playing to his win condition that according to him will allow him to leave the game. This is different to the town win condition of 'kill the scum'. If somebody checked SB, I am sure he would come back as 'not town'. I do not believe he is an ITP. I am not 'chasing an ITP'. Do not misbelieve what the twenty five pages of the few same players are parroting around in circles. I think he is scum so I am voting him. He refused to state his win condition because it would make it harder for him to obtain. Isn't this...because he doesn't want town to know what it is? I can't see any way his role can be beneficial to town; unless we can fail his win condition, which he is declining to share. Where is his town motivation? All he has effectively done is say "I am not scum" and "I am not going to scumhunt" and an OMGUS vote on me.

That's my case on SB. As I'm aware, the case on me is 'because Sky is tunneling on SB'. I'm not clear how that is even tunneling, let alone scummy. Aren't you all doing the same on me? If you lynched me today (and I will flip town), those of you who have looked no further than 'the obvious case' have wasted their entire day 1. I am not pushing for an SB lynch. I wanted him to claim his condition so we could test it. The only way I have to apply pressure is to vote, and ask other people to vote. Is this not reasonable? He would not actually die unless hammered because it was so early in the phase.

I need to do a proper re-read of the thread in light of FrostFireMage's flip; I think there's a good chance that his vote on Refa is telling of something and I want to analyse it in depth. I will be around a big chunk of tomorrow to do this and we do have more than enough hours to discuss the situation properly. I mean, players who want to lynch me without even reflecting on what FFM's flip can tell us are just silly. You shouldn't ignore major pieces of evidence of that.

No, I am not going to claim so far out from phase end. It is not necessary for town, in the same way that I said that the player who killed FFM should not claim. SB was the person who asked for our confirmed townie to out themselves for an easy mafia kill, I was the player who said they should absolutely not do that. You are happy to follow my advice but you won't follow my reasoning?

However, while it is not necessary for that player, or myself, to claim; it is necessary for SB to claim his win condition.

I will review the thread in the morning and see what I can dig up. I think Mitsuki is a really sharp person and her case on Shinori seems legit. So I will want to do my own read before shifting my vote, if necessary.

I said it ages ago; I'll vote for SB until he clears his name (e.g. by actually scumhunting or posting a plausible explanation for his scummy attitude) or if a better target presents itself (which I hope to find in a re-read). The first didn't happen yet, the second is a distinct possibility. After all, I may be wrong about SB, and I would be foolish to waste a whole day for nothing. I'm asking that you do the same.

[Mitsuki]

Paladin, consider SB as an extra player that "is here". There's only a mafia faction (or so I hope) but that doesn't mean there can't be, say, survivors. We could lynch a 3rd party like that, but that would be wasting our lynch when he can leave the game anyways without that, and he can help scumhunt until then. His wincon might not be that of a townie, but that doesn't mean he can't help town meanwhile. Plus he might become town in the way, which is even better.

I think he's been helpful so far and I agree with some of the stuff he's said.

I guess suspecting him or not comes to whether you believe his claim or not, but I think there's no reason not to believe it.

@SB: by the way, do you have to be alive to win according to your current wincon?

Paladin, I think you should claim. In spite of what I posted I don't think suspicion on you will just go away that easily.

[Sky_Paladin]

OK I have some time up my sleeve so I'm going to start a read. I don't know when I'll get stopped though so here we go. I'll link posts that seem scummy for some reason or might be relevant later.

Junko "I feel kind of bad for saying this but he seems he would more inactive in this game." This doesn't make any sense so I want to assume it's a joke vote, but it seems like...a really bad fake jokevote.

SB votes for Refa. Maybe relevant because of FFM's vote for Refa, later.

Junko making it clear it's not a joke vote on Korhal, it's just a really bad vote.

Junko again; vote for Euky because "Nothing sounds more scummy than telling everyone to lynch refa by getting aboard the train." Seems a bit projecting much.

Junko again; 'Most of my votes have been jokes to.' So what, some of them have not been jokes? Which ones were serious? 'But I will stand by my vote now.' So I'll assume Junko's vote on Euky is 'serious'. Junko will shortly afterwards unvote.

Bluedoom for fencesitting/non content.

Junko 'Vigilante is a townie right?' How could you know what a vigilante is, but not know what they are? Looks fake newbie.

SB voting for FFM for a legit reason therefore actual scumhunting.

Junko. I want to understand the motivation behind this post.

"I guess we all want to find out. But what exactly do survivors do? He is a third party but do survivors actually do anything besides hoping to live. He says he is not a survivor or what we think survivor is.(Regular survivor) Anyway I say we should not lynch SB Day 1 because we have no idea who is going to get killed or who is going to live. Perhaps he can roleblock(survivors can do this right?). And you guys even presented evidence against my vote. SB refusing to tell us what he does is suspicious. But Kopflajer also said he is town allied so he could help us. I doubt anyone was going to vote SB but if anyone was..."

This was from fairly early in the phase, before the vote mess around.

I'm mainly pinged by the 'Anyway I say we should not lynch SB day 1' sentence onwards. Just what are you trying to say here, Junko?

Junko again; only town reads.

//Voteshenanigans

Green Poet posts about FFM. In light of FFM's flip is good indicator of town GP.

FFM asks to wait about voting until Terrador, Mitsuki, and Shinori have posted. Mitsuki has actually already posted. I wonder if there's a scum in those three. Relevant because FFM's next post with any substance is:

FFM "Think it's someone who hasn't posted yet?" Why would he ask that...

Junko votes FFM for no reason given.

//FFM votes Refa, dies.

Ah right, here's where I got my Green Poet confusion.

[url=http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=46996&page=12#entry3018931]Green Poet "I think we can rule out Paladin as the votal influencer. Regardless of his alignment, his open willingness to see SB lynched makes it improbable that he would force this lynch anonymously." Later on, says I'm the vote influencer and votes me for it. I'll finish reading and reflect on this later.

***sigh I lost everything up to page 14.***And all my links from halfway broke. Fine I'll just put post numbers in.

Doing it again.

First of all; who is Wen? It keeps coming up.

#254 - Bluedoom-

"Ok buster that's some serious tunneling you've got there. To early to decide SB's lying obv!scum."

I did not 'decide'. I believed that SB was lying about his condition or his role. You cannot simply believe or unbelieve; you must study the situation and reflect on your feelings. It takes hard consideration of the data and determining what is information and what is irrelevant. Only then are you in a position to choose to change your belief. I did not have an opportunity to reflect on the situation until now. I may yet make a decision on SB, for now my belief is unchanged.

When is it not 'too early' to decide somebody is lying? If I think somebody is lying, I will say that 'I think they are lying'. What would you have done that would have been better?

#261 - Green Poet - "Why would you panic if a game's in L-1 on someone who's not yourself?" In scum/serial killer roles, I've historically panicked around day 4 for no reason and started quickhammering players at L-1. It's a bad habit I need to get out of my scum game.

#272 Mitsuki - "If the person who made the change in votals is town they should claim NOW. If they claim later I'm going to push a lynch on them, since town wouldn't let people rolespec and be confused this much."

I think this is actually bad advice. I assume if town did it they were crumbing because of the pattern in the votes, and if it were scum they would have...well, I don't know.

Lastly this before I ran out of time:

#138 SB "MAFIA 3 SHOT VIGILANTE THAT GETS EXTRA SHOTS AFTER EVERY PR DIES IS A GOOD ROLE."

Which was funny except we actually had a mafia 3 shot vigilante.

OK I ran out of time, got halfway through so tomorrow I can wrap it up.

Overall thoughts so far;

Junko's posts really annoy me. I want to make a case but I feel like it's a waste of time since I see a lot of people already excusing her for being new. I feel like some if it is fake but can you really consistently fake newbie? I can't see how. We're probably going to have to wait for a rolecheck of some type before we could really do anything about Junko.

SB - I don't like his condition and I don't trust him and he said a few things that were not bad but there's also a few things (like asking for the gunner to claim) that are very very bad.

Bluedoom made one early bad post and a vote on me for a pretty nonsense reason.

Mitsuki gave bad advice but I'm handwaving it because she was only making small posts earlier on she didn't jump on the Sky wagon when she could have easily ended it.

Scumpicks: Bluedoom over SB until I finish my re-read.

##unvote

I'll be back in around ten hours to finish this up.

[Sky_Paladin]

Yeah so at this point I'm going to ignore Junko entirely because I think no good can come from analysing it.

I didn't finish the read. I hold Bluedoom to a higher standard than Junko so that's why I'm pinging him at the moment. I'm keeping my vote on SB but I am wavering pending the rest of my read.

[MRDRHAWK]

Kirsche subs in for BBM, effective immediately.

[Zkirsche]

Hi I have a lot to read :)

It would be a great help if people could post lynch priorities/add them to future posts. Especifically sky/Mitsuki because they make a great tl;dr for all these walls.

[Terrador]

Alright, good morning, ladies and gentlemen! Surprised to see we've only got a page or so of new content here.

True but considering that you're going on about Junko's quickhammering idea even though he's new to mafia and has no idea why that's bad(srsly don't think its bad in this case) it doesn't take a genius to figure out that you'll probably vote him for such shenaningans next D phase if Sky flips town.

Ofc, I thought you had said more about Junko but apparently I was wrong, there are a couple or three posts addressing Junko.

Just because someone seems scummy doesn't mean I'm rock-solid locked into voting for them the next Day. I'm not sure what sort of impression you got, but my post earlier was an "X implies Y, but Y doesn't necessarily imply X" situation. If you want me to go into this further, feel free to ask, but I think we've sufficiently established that I wasn't trying to pre-emptively roll Junko.

Note that you made these posts after I expressed that I'm gutreading Junko as new town, despite the wall of misplays. Why would there be any need for that?

I'd like someone (ONE person) to make a summary post on what the case on Paladin is, because it really feels like people are suspecting him on a hard confirmation bias right now. I get that some things can be seen as scummy, but I don't think it confirms him as scum, neither he should be lynched based on that. Specially regarding how the wagon/suspicion grew, and his actions this game don't differ from his town meta (neither from his scum meta) from what I recall.

In summary: Sky_Paladin is suspicious because he's been very aggressive very early, made this strange and worrying comment about hammering, and instead of defending himself, chose to attack SB and provide a pair of poorly-substantiated reads during his brief available posting time. I'm not a fan of his most recent post on SB, either, but that's more of a disagreement on a fundamental point than anything scummy.

Yo, Sky. There are a few things you posted this morning that are just plain inaccurate.

SB said that he has an anti-town win condition.

That's not accurate. He's claiming a win condition that isn't "murder all scum", which could be anything from a harmless side-game (I've seen it done) to targeting certain players with certain abilities to outliving certain players, be they scum, village, third party, or both. Truth be told, I wouldn't be surprised if SB was Junpei. He hasn't posted since Refa claimed the Junpei stuff was gone, so it's far from invalidated.

I voted for SB because I felt this was a lie; we know there is supposed to be only one anti-town group and that is scum. Therefore for him to have an anti-town win condition, he should be scum. Yes? No?

Wait, what? Hidden factions are 110% a thing, and should be expected in a game as small as this. Further, one-man third parties might not be listen even if they're not strictly hidden! The second bit, barring the predication that Charlie's anti-town, is good logic; those with anti-town win conditions should be burninated, be they specifically mafia or not.

Isn't this...because he doesn't want town to know what it is? I can't see any way his role can be beneficial to town; unless we can fail his win condition, which he is declining to share. Where is his town motivation? All he has effectively done is say "I am not scum" and "I am not going to scumhunt" and an OMGUS vote on me.

Sometimes town-aligned people have reason to hide, too. Doctors want to stay incredibly quiet about who they are.

"Charlie says he's not going to scumhunt". I can't see you genuinely believing that; everything he has done is at least TRYING to put up a good townie face when he's not defending himself, even if it isn't genuine scumhunting (which I'm not at all ruling out yet). What game have you been reading, man?

@Sky_Paladin, I'd like you to consider this: what motivations could SB have for claiming town-friendly neutral instead of claiming town? The only one I can think of is that he returns neutral on scans, and therefore almost certainly isn't Nyx. This doesn't mean he's necessarily town-friendly, but hunting him as if he were scum is a waste of effort when the evidence is clear that he isn't.

-----

At a passing glance, from my remembrance of the game, Mitsuki's case on Shinori looks solid, so I'm going to sheep her suspicion for the moment while I run through Sky and Shinori's ISOs. I still think Sky is the scummiest player about at the moment, but while we're all here (and Sky apparently isn't anymore), they're both worth examining.

##Pressure Vote Powers, Activate!: Shinori

[charlie_]

realtalk though refa is confirmed scum

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm kind of here but it's really hard. I'm on 4 hours sleep over two days and I have my wife talking to me constantly. I don't want to blame my wife but to be honest it's really hard to concentrate when I have to answer questions every thirty seconds in between sentences about stuff that doesn't matter.

I just, my brian is burned out, I can't read properly so it's the sign to stop trying to scum read. I can at least try to answer questions.

Also I'm really angry that the forums ate my original post and I had to patch it together from my last preview, which ate half of my links for *reasons*. It's probably me just being a newb at this forum but I like being irrationally irritable at non-sentient entities that can't defend themselves so I can have a sense of righteousness.

Re: Wording of "I don't push for quick hammer but I will quick hammer if it's L-1 and Im panicking."

SB is right that in my last SK game, and my last scum game, I quick hammered a lot. It's partly due to stress from longer games and RL with my weird time schedules; I live in Japan everybody else is in USA so most of the phase happens while I'm asleep/at work, so I get to make lots of really bad decisions on my own.

Not defending self: On Shrinemaiden, I found defending myself didn't work because once people made up their minds I was scum for some imagined reason I couldn't convince them otherwise and got lynched a couple times. I reflected on it and decided: Players who under pressure defend themselves only are not helping town. Town should always scum hunt, except to answer directed questions.

1 - The best defence is offence!

2 - When I said to SB, "I am voting for you until I find a better target" is the realisation of this targeting mechanism; towns will vote for the most scummy person. If you just defend yourself you are reducing some hate on you but if there's no other good target you will not succeed.

3 - Even if you fail and die, if you did heroic scumhunting and found the right target, town can still follow your lead and get the win.

So from then I decided that if the only thing I had was defending myself then I wasn't helping town.

At that time I had ten minutes to read the thread and put out some kind of action. I had ten minutes. I mean I type at 105 wpm but I can't just make it up, I had to read, think, make snap decisions, all the while talking to my family :D I'm amazed.

***

"That's not accurate. He's claiming a win condition that isn't "murder all scum", I disagree.

"What game have you been reading, man?"

That's basically the problem. It's extremely hard for me to focus at the moment because I have a lot of background chatter that I have to pay attention to and I'm organising stuff at the same time. Also I have giant swathes of text to read through and I don't know any of the players, people refer to Wen and Coco and other names that I don't know or see in the player list and Junko made me waste a lot of time reading her posts, ugh.

I mean I don't want to write giant walls, I'm exhausted and it's so hard to string thoughts together. I'm doing my best but I have no time and the time I do have is in a highly distractive environment.

[Sky_Paladin]

Like this:

"QUote"realtalk" /quote"

Who is realtalk? I figured that Charlie is SB at least :V The first time SB said it I thought it was an analogy of /serious.

Also this:

"realtalk though refa is confirmed scum"

Really? How did you come to that conclusion?

[charlie_]

Basically, I'm Junpei, the town mason recruiter. I screwed around claiming ITP partly for fun and partly so I wouldn't get shot before I could recruit a specific mafia member (who Refa crumbed to be earlier by asking me to target him) into the town and gamebreak.

I was gonna wait until night phase for this but the ability got redacted (still have the main one though), we should just lynch Refa now instead.

##Unvote

##Vote: Refa

And yes, we wasted about 5 pages trying to get an ITP that didn't exist to claim their wincon. rofl.