Estelle
-
Posts
0 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Estelle
-
-
##Vote: Shiki
The long lazy spell and weak catch-up with this slot reminds me of my own play in a certain anonymous game where I was not too pleased to be scum.
-
Also I was right about Rain's vote. IDK if I believe her saying she didn't know about it until last night, but she used that logic to try to save herself yesterday and now it's gone.
For me town is me/Cu/Violet I guess? Haven't read her at all.
Shiki's slot seems the most scummy right now. I could get behind lynching her or Aizen.
I'm sorry I'm too busy to be a super contributor right now. I feel like our best chance at catching mafia is between Rain/Aizen/Shiki. Is there a real reason Violet can't be ITP?
I hope we win this.
-
Wasn't Marisa supposed to roleblock Rain last night?
-
9 hours ago, Rain Nijika said:
1. In this scenario we'd have already been in potential MyLo yesterday though? Like, I literally said this yesterday. I at least always thought parity with the anti-town was what counted towards *Lo, not just one team.
2. ....My double vote apparently does get turned off in *Lo. Shinori only answered that question last night...
It was proven for one night at least, think that was N2.
Full claim then:
Apart from being a mayor
which gets turned off during *Lo, making it basicly a useless role, but let's ignore that for a secondI can also check who someone voted for in the waifu contest. Shiki didn't vote anyone D1, Aizen didn't vote anyone yesterday (lame results, I know).Wait Rain, you didn't get roleblocked?
I'm the town backup. I get the first town role to be killed/lynched, which was Olivier's. So I'm a redirector. I can't redirect the NK though.
-
@Rain Nijika prove your double-vote
I want to hear some more from Aizen and I'm not entirely sure Cu has his logic completely straight yet but I'd be down to lynch there if the evidence continues to lead that way.
Also I guess I claimed. I'm not going to say who I targeted with my redirect unless it becomes important, but my actions succeeded last night.
-
Wait, whoa there! Don't lynch me!
I'm the backup. The first townie to die I get their ability. The first townie to die was Olivier, I got their ability and I'm a redirector now, but my stupid sub redirected to a dead guy so her action failed.
-
Thank you! Additionally I would like to know, since it looks like we're lynching Rain:
If Rain flips town which 2 players do you think are most likely to be mafia/itp?
Same question but if Rain flips scum?
This is just some stuff I want a general consensus on, I'll be back around later to defend myself/press reads. I guess I'll waifu vote Cu? My sub apparently forgot to use that function.
-
At the very least could you guys answer 2 questions?
Who all has claimed their roles?
Which slots have had subs?
Also I know who my sub was and I wouldn't be surprised if their play was terrible. I can't really defend it. Like, I know for a fact they made some huge mistakes none of you even know about yet.
I really need to know claimed roles before EoD though.
-
@Rain Nijika I still don't know why you think I'm scum.
Goodnight town.
-
I think we should stop trying to read off of whether it should be MYLO or not. Rain's/maybe Nemu's I'd have to read back to double-check cases kinda depend on knowing the game's setup, which only the mafia do. There's a lot of presumptions. Could there be more than one ITP? Could abilities such as the extra nightkill or the poison be conditional/1-shot?
And I could swear I've played a few games where mayors lose their double voting ability in MYLO. Otherwise that's basically modconfirming the mayor slot as town in certain situations which I think the host might would avoid. I know in BBM's anonydraft game he didn't announce MYLO because of complications with the mayor slot.
In short, we don't know enough for MYLO to be a primary deciding factor in who to clear/who to lynch.
-
OK I'm going to bed. I know I look lazy but you guys aren't giving me a lot to work with. Just people sussing me without explaining why and- well speak of the devil Rain just posted.
-
Also SF usually does role flips. IDK why Shinori isn't doing them in this game.
-
@Rain Nijika WHY. AM. I. SCUM. ?
Rain's logic does seem off. Particularly
3 hours ago, Rain Nijika said:With 3 mafia and 1 itp, a misslynch a night kill and a poison kill is enough to make it MyLo if I'm anti town because of my double vote. This means I'm basicly cleared with these numbers (that you are fully expecting, with good reason). The only reason I can be scum is if Nemu is lying about being poisoned, meaning you never lynch me before Nemu.
Good enough?
What if there's only one mafia left? Your defensive logic is incomplete and as previously mentioned you have yet to explain your read on me. I'd still really like to know more about what I missed (particularly who has claimed what role) but I'd feel comfortable lynching Rain based on what I've seen so far.
-
And since you think I'm scum @Rain Nijika could you show me your case on me so I have at least something to work on? I don't have time to reread right now.
-
Yeah it seems like a small anti-town. Could there be more than one SK? Does Cu's role say anything bout that?
-
1 hour ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:
On numbers:
Assume 7/1/1 with 2x NK + poison from either side
Mislynch: 6/1/1
2x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 3/1/1
Lynch poisoning scum: 3/1
NK+Poison death: 1/1 town loses ==> It's not MYLO, so not possibleAssume 6/2/1 with 1x NK+Poison
Mislynch: 5/2/1
1x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 3/2/1
Either lynch PoisonITP: 3/2 ==> NK+poison death: 1/2 town loses
Or lynch mafia: 3/1/1 ==> NK+poisondeath+poison: 1/1/1 ==> lynch whoever: 1/1 ==> poison death town loses
It's not MYLO, so not possibleAssume 7/1/1 with 2x NK, no poison
Mislynch: 6/1/1
2x NK, Poison death: 3/1/1
Lynch scum: 3/1
NK: 2/1
Lynch scum town winsIn this world we are not in MYLO yet, so possible
Assume 7/1/1 with 1x NK + poison
Mislynch: 6/1/1
1x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 4/1/1
Either lynch mafia: 4/1 ==> poison+poison death: 3/1 ==> lynch ITP town win
Or lynch ITP: 4/1 ==> poison death+NK: 2/1 ==> lynch maf town winIn this world we are not in MYLO yet, so possible
So from this I think the only possible world is the one with 1 mafia left and 1 ITP. This also means either
- ITP is poisoner, 1 scumteam had a vigshot
- ITP is SK, poison was a 2-shot from either side
- ITP is SK, poison was 1-shot from either side, all might was lying (unlikely tinfoil)Any scenarios I'm missing / calculations I'm doing wrong?
I think the first scenario is by far the likeliest, which also means Rain being RB'd should actually be clearing her instead of guilty-ing her, unless she's strongwilled, because both a NK and a poison happened.
If it's the second/third scenario, Rain can still be scum, just not poisoner.@Everyone Thoughts? Am I wrong anywhere?
TBH this post lost me, but the bolded part makes it look like you're saying there's only one Mafia left.
-
Wait, why do we think there's only one scum player left? We've only lynched one so far.
-
Hey guys it's me, the original Estelle! I'm back in, but there's a reason I subbed out in the first place so don't expect too much out of me please! If I could get some updated readslists from you guys as well as any info on anything important my sub may have done in my absence, I would be grateful. I may or may not have the opportunity to reread, so if you could point me to any particularly important moments that happened while I was gone I would appreciate that as well!
Finally, @Shinori could you please link D2 start/D3 start and EoDs in the OP? I legitimately have no idea how the players that have died so far flipped and that's kind of important information!
-
On 8/29/2018 at 1:49 AM, Aizen said:
Yes rping being a smug guy who thinks he's a walking god without coming off as an asshole is rather hard...
Ya dont say!
When I was looking through the first few pages I was like wow this guy is super bitter, then realized later it was just roleplay.
I only realized that deadline is in a couple hours... whoops. I'm not gonna be around, so I'll just address what Nemu asked for
On 8/29/2018 at 2:21 AM, Olivier said:i'm at marisa/estelle > sham/ochako. not interested in any of the other active posters atm.
@Nemu Kurotsuchi You wanted my thoughts on the case on past me.
Well first of all: I agree that past me was odd, at least up to page 5. But what I have quoted above (which I assume is his lynch priority) is kind of a leap of logic. Olivier's post on page 5 read as a vote for pressure. Past me hadn't even said much at that point so it I guess it makes sense. Yet he puts me at the same level as Marisa... which I honestly dont understand
Worse yet I'm also above Sham and Ochako.
On 8/29/2018 at 12:52 PM, All Might said:estelle's lack of scumreads is a huge tell
*votes me*
Might kinda feels like town adding on to pressure but I definitely didnt see this coming.
On 8/29/2018 at 1:40 PM, Marisa Kirisame said:Estelle says she has a big stick but isn't using it. She didn't seem like a timid girl on first impression...
##Vote: EstellePffff
More pressure.
Marisa possibly trying to shift attention away as scum? ?
I think past me made a good point about the whole using rp to stay in good graces thing
Also who was the one who said the third vote on a wagon is statistically scum 8)
I read as much as I could and now I have to get back to some responsibilities. Life sucks. Mafia does too.
-
Up to page 5:
Tfw you re-realize why you dont like anon
At first I thought Aizen's aggressiveness was weird but honestly his posts aren't really that scummy... aside from the evil-ish role play.
On All-Might I'm kinda waffle-ish on them cause I want to believe they're town but at the same time that whole "r u being serious" thing with Aizen makes me squint.
BUT:
At first when Aizen sorta defended Ochako after their initial posts I was inclined to think they're scum together, cause Sham's post against them referencing their stance on All-Might (the point that got me was Ochako focusing on them but not voting them) made me think Ochako is scum pushing town in a hard spot (All-Might). Aizen then defended Ochako with an even longer post and at that point I was like, "Would scum really defend so hard?"
Nonetheless at this point I think Ochako is weird. I don't really want to ITP-spec but I think that's a possibility for this slot, just based on the current info/content
Marisa's roleplay hurts my head
Cu is def town
TBH ashamed of my past self for seemingly being in the game to figure out who is behind each anon account
Props to Olivier for calling past me out, cause I would too. Looks like a town slot to me.
Im not sure what to say about Kamina... so I'll refrain until I see more
Sham looks good to me
#RainDidNothingWrong
This leaves CC Refa Violet Shiki and Nemu who all havent done much yet.
I'll post on the rest a little later on. Places to do, people to be, things to see and all that.
-
2 hours ago, Shinori said:
Estelle has been replaced by Estelle.
No really.
You thought I was gone but I'm still here!
Ahem. I'll try to read through everything now and get a post out in a couple hours, after I sleep ~
-
I'll be awake for a few more minutes if you have anything else you'd like to clear with me.
-
OK everybody! I'm really sorry to do this just when everyone stopped scumreading me but I'm going to have to sub out. I'm going on a trip for a few days and I won't have internet. It's kinda unexpected. Sorry I wasn't able to help more, hopefully my sub will be more experienced.
-
@Violet Evergarden do you have any reads on current posters? We aren't getting anywhere on Ochaku until they post again.
I know I promised some current poster reads. I'll need to consider which of these I'll go in-depth on as most of their recent content I've only glanced at, but:
Refakitty has a bunch of half-baked reads but they make sense coming from a player who has only read ISOs so far. I wouldn't say their actions are quite what I would consider scummy at this point.
All Might you've already heard just about everything I feel like saying about.
Aizen had a nice string of posts with a lot of content, I plan on re-reading them later to see if they help me get a better grasp on his alignment and that of those he mentions.
Sham is pretty good. I'll take another look at their stuff if I have the time. I like that they aren't putting all of their eggs in one basket. They started the Ochaku wagon, but they're pretty open-minded. If they're scum, they're doing a really good job.
Marisa I need to reread her content from an alignment perspective, so far I've mainly focused on what she thinks of me TBH.
Violet I've seen nothing from her so far to contradict the read we all got from her first post. I think she'll reveal more under questioning though. If the Major approves...
Husbando/Waifu mafia Day 3!
in Mafia
Posted
I guess I should mention: there's one more aspect of my role that's kind of important, but there's also literally no town benefit in claiming it, even if it were necessary to save me from a lynch.
If you guys have any ideas on how to use my redirect tonight let me know, it could be useful especially if there's a scum RB still hanging around.