The Mafia to End all Mafias - GAME OVER

[Eurykins]

Ty for the information. Skimming the thread, saw the claims- not altogether sure how to feel about them. Watcher definitely remains NAI (both sides benefit from having said role) though I want to ask @Shinori and @Ichigo: In all of the games in the past, how often has the role Insomniac ever been scum-sided, and how does the role itself make sense in the hands of scum? This is something that came to mind regarding the claims, and not sure how to think of it either.

22 hours ago, Shinori said:

Okay like I'll state some stuff already right here from my personal opinion.  These are MY opinions, but tell me if you agree.

Jamie and FE fan ARE NOT wolves together.

Eury and Aster ARE NOT wolves together.

Jamie and Ichigo ARE PROBABLY NOT wolves together.

Most people would probably right: Shinori and DF ARE PROBABLY NOT wolves together.

This is based on interactions that are already happening in thread today on day 1.

THIS POST I'M KEEPING HERE FOR CONSIDERATION/FOOD FOR THOUGHT when looking at more of the interactions below that've occurred since I've been at work.

16 hours ago, Sunwoo said:

Votals

Jamie (3): Bluedoom, FE Fan, Ichigo
Aster (1): Eurykins
FE Fan (1): Jamie

Not Voting (4): Aster, Shinori, Elieson, DefyingFates

D1 ends in approximately 19 hours. There will be no hammer on D1.

So this was the Votals that were posted PRIOR to the DF post:

6 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

Can you explain why you suspect me please? Also, what makes you think Bluedoom and Eury are town?

Considering EoD is in ~9 hours, I'm going to go ahead and vote. Given what I've seen (as described in my summary on the previous page), it seems Jamie is the prime suspect (other than me I guess). Of course if he's town then I think Ichigo would be the main suspect in D2 considering their opposition a few pages back.

Thanks for the help earlier in the thread Jamie. Sorry about this, but...

##Vote: @JamieIsBored

Am I completely missing something? I mean, yes, Shinori ended up voting you later and had voiced openly that he found you scummy, but literally there were ZERO votes at this time on DF. THE BOLDED ITALICIZED SOUNDS SO SELF-CONSCIOUS, DESPITE THE LACK OF VOTES ON DF'S SLOT? 

The "Consolidation" vote here, as a result, feels extremely contrived and does NOT feel good to me. 
There was also the post earlier:

13 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

P.S. I feel bad because Jamie's one of the people who's been giving me advice (NAI behavior or not) so I feel bad saying this, but he does seem the most suspicious of the group so far, given how many of you think he's mafia. But there's also FEFan defending Ichigo as soon as they started playing, which taking a step back like this could suggest they and Ichigo are a mafia pair.

In short, after going through the Jamie & Ichigo conversations again, I leaning towards Bluedoom's assessment that one of them is mafia and the other is town. If the latter turns out to be mafia then FEFan may be too. How does everyone else feel about that breakdown?

The Underlined portion feels bad, for the simple fact that it's putting space between the read on Jamie and it deriving from "others finding him scummy". DF comments on the fact that one of them could be Maf between IchigoxJamie, but that really doesn't do a whole lot in having their own formulated read on Jamie themselves. It feels like you're tossing him onto the fryer without bothering to gauge a read on him yourself, which reads bad to me.

5 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

Remember when in the last game I said I'd start writing stuff out? That's what those recaps were meant to be, I figured I could make my thought process public with mini-Eury walls, essentially. As for the countervote I just wanted to be more aggressive in voting compared to last time.

Unfortunately my list is similar to yours so it's probably not going to be very enlightening:

Shinori
Aster
Bluedoom/ Eury
FEFan
Jamie/ Ichigo

No idea:

Elieson

How I see it is you and Ichigo have played similarly so far. You've both been relatively quiet and while you've prodded people who need help along you, you've been pretty passive otherwise, only speaking up when accused of being Mafia. I'm sure either you or Ichigo is one - there was a period a few pages back when you two seemed to be at each other's throats and I don't think that would have gone on for so long if you were both towns (you'd have probably dropped the issue). That other people were suspecting you acted as a tiebreaker for me. What do you say to that?

The entire casing/readings on Jamie/Ichigo is based on the assumption of "They cannot both be scum, yet they are unlikely to both be townies in-fighting". This bothers me heavily because it reads as lazy reads/votes, willing to scum read BOTH players based on one interaction. What if they are BOTH townside- you shoot both when the first flips town? The basis of the one interaction, rather than it being PART of the reason why you're scum reading them, makes it feel like you're grasping straws at best to pin one or both as scum.

4 hours ago, Aster said:

Definitely thinking that of the three options scum coasting off of your tussle is the most likely, but that's just my gut.

Going down my list, in order of most to least:

Pretty confident that they're town as of now:

-DF

-Bluedoom (I dunno the vibes are good)

Entirely Null:

-Shinori

-Ichigo

-Eury

-Elieson

Only real leads but I have a very strong feeling they're both red herrings:

-Jamie and FE Fan

As such I'd say anyone in my null category are the ones I'm also suspicious of, especially those who voted for Jamie (I'd have to double check who voted for who as of now to see if I do have a better lead in the null category) if only because I do have the feeling Jamie and FE are both town.

I... don't understand this listing. On initial glance, it seemed you put FE Fan + Jamie on the lowest tier (FARTHEST AWAY FROM TOWN, as you started with it first with DF), but then you spun around and state that you think they're both TOWN. Why would you not put Jamie/FE Fan on the list either by or above DF if you seemed inclined to read them as such? This makes the entire list seem wonk at best, because this still says nothing about "WHO IS SCUM?"

4 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

No, I just wanted to hear your opinions on what I had to say, which you gave. I have to admit after all of this you're starting to win me over.

So she's "null" to you right now, gotcha. While we have you here, could you go over your opinions on everyone and what you think of your own playstyle/ anyone who'd suspect it of scummy behavior please?

Probably not, considering the vague threat/ warning about an anti-town role you started the game with.

##Unvote: @JamieIsBored

Why did you unvote at this point? (THIS WAS BEFORE JAMIE CLAIMED.) I see no reason to for this unvoting at this time (based on context of the thread when this occurred) and feels extremely unnatural to me.

4 hours ago, Aster said:

Initially, it was just my gut, just a vibe, but the more I analyzed and saw they also voted for Jamie that did put them a bit on my suspect list but very tentatively so, landing them more close to null territory.

Ichigo, I'm extremely sorry about this, but reviewing the votes as well as the hypothesis I had earlier, you do fit the description, please do prove me wrong because legit I don't like voting with minimal evidence and this is entirely a shot in the dark based on a theory.

##Vote: @Ichigo

Again, shot in the dark and will gladly redact this vote.

Once again, I don't understand this vote. Ichigo was literally middle of the pack according to the list posted just above (between me, Shinori, etc.) in the NULL READS. WHERE DID THIS COME FROM? I CAN'T FOLLOW THE LOGIC.
WHAT THEORY?
IF YOU THINK HE'S SCUM, WHY VOTE AND THEN OFFER TO REDACT THE VOTE?

4 hours ago, Aster said:

...You know, actually, too unconfident in this since again it's based off of connecting dots that might not be there. My apologies.

##Unvote: @Ichigo

WHAT IS HAPPENING?

4 hours ago, Aster said:

(I know this looks very whiplashy but I'm floundering to make heads or tails of the situation other than I still have a feeling that Jamie and FE Fan are both town and the real scum is rolling with it for a townie lynch, send help)

??????

3 hours ago, Sunwoo said:

Votals

Jamie (3): Bluedoom, FE Fan, Ichigo
Aster (1): Eurykins
FE Fan (1): Jamie
DefyingFates (1): Shinori

Not Voting (3): Aster, Elieson, DefyingFates

D1 ends in approximately 5.5 hours. There will be no hammer on D1.

Checked this to check the time. --- Posting this for the questions posted above to be answered if possible before more thoughts.
@Shinori I saw message ninja in about reading the DF case you have, so I will need to check it, because some stuff above is making me a bit more uncomfortable with the slot than what I had initially, especially with more recent posts.

[Shinori]

3 minutes ago, Bluedoom said:

@ShinoriI've been feeling that about DF too, but can't be sure because that's a plausible explanation for cautious town trying to be sure of their vote. I think bringing up their meta from the last game is an interesting point though.  I also feel like FEF has been sorta playing similarly, trying to figure out what everyone feels about the game before making reads. What makes one whose than the other, iyo?

FE fan is actual first timer.  DF is their second game.

As far as I know.  Therefore I amd more lenient towards FE fan SLIGHTLY.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

That is correct, this is my first time ever playing Mafia. My first game.

[Ichigo]

10 minutes ago, Eurykins said:

Ty for the information. Skimming the thread, saw the claims- not altogether sure how to feel about them. Watcher definitely remains NAI (both sides benefit from having said role) though I want to ask @Shinori and @Ichigo: In all of the games in the past, how often has the role Insomniac ever been scum-sided, and how does the role itself make sense in the hands of scum? This is something that came to mind regarding the claims, and not sure how to think of it either.

The role is pretty much not seen where I play mafia

[Shinori]

Yeh, insomniac isn't really a common role on other sites, SF likes it and majority of the time it's kind of like IC/Town to be honest.

We have seen a few scum ones though, it's just rare.

[Bluedoom]

##Vote: @DefyingFates I'm fine with this, was in my scum pool anyway, and tbh Idk if I'd have any alternatives here

[Bluedoom]

I guess my alternative is FEF, I think I felt good about eury's post above where she dissects DF and Aster

[Shinori]

@Bluedoom @Ichigo

How do both of you feel WRT my actual DF case?  I'd like thoughts, I don't want blind votes with weak reasonings.  I want to know if you actually agree with what I'm saying or not.

[Bluedoom]

3 minutes ago, Shinori said:

@Bluedoom @Ichigo

How do both of you feel WRT my actual DF case?  I'd like thoughts, I don't want blind votes with weak reasonings.  I want to know if you actually agree with what I'm saying or not.

I'm saying that I agree with your case

[Bluedoom]

On 9/8/2024 at 11:40 AM, Bluedoom said:

Good morning SFers! Sorry for the absence, got caught up with stuff irl.

Got caught up and I kinda feel weird about Eury and Jamie, I keep flip flopping over DF because I thought that his initial cautious behaviour resembled a paranoid newbie who's town, especially the whole part where he thinks that shinori is conning him,  but I think stuff like this:

really rubs me the wrong way, so I can see where Shinori is coming from wrt that.

 

##Vote: @JamieIsBored

I think Aster is town tbh, I was confused as to which of Aster/DF was the one talking about eliminating someone at the start of the game for no reason being unfair; read back and it was Aster- Honestly that's such a townie mindset, if you're mafia honestly you don't care who is eliminated as long as its not your team or feel bad as much because its pro wincon.

I think this post sums up what I feel about DF and aster, and as the game has gone on it has only become stronger for me

[Bluedoom]

17 hours ago, Bluedoom said:

I already did actually; I'm of the opinion that Aster is town here flailing, I already thought that her thinking that deciding to eliminate someone out of the game D1 was unfair was coming from a town mindset(because mafia don't care about how unfair it is, they just want to advance their wincon), but the self vote in the recent pages feel like a strong indicator for newb!town.

 

I've been flip flopping on DF, a lot of his posts feel very calculative but I can see them just as easily coming from a cautious, calculative townie.

The main change for me has been that I think Jamie/Ichigo might be an SvT, my confirmation bias says that Jamie is mafia, and that he's playing this game more diplomatically than the previous one, but ignoring that, I think Ichigo's argument with Jamie doesn't read like town in fighting to me at all, and if Jamie was town here it would make Ichigo look oddly defensive here.

This too.

 

I think you worded it better than me though, because I'd been thinking he was calculative because of how open ended he would always leave his reads, which is what you cited in your case.

[Bluedoom]

Although now that I think about it looking at my post I should probably ISO Ichigo

[Bluedoom]

How do I ISO again?

[Eurykins]

Okay, well, I have a few things in mind with those notion:
1. Watcher claim, eh. I felt nothing either way because seen it on both sides enough to know it's 50/50 can equally be one or the other. So moreso basing Jamie's slot consideration on what has been done so far instead.
2. Aster's flailing + claim... IDK. It's not helping ME personally because I feel like multiple players (myself, Shinori, etc.) have tried to guide, at least with questions here and there - food for thought to help in some form of caliber. Yet, for as much as the "Help" comes and goes, I legit feel like we're watching someone tied up flailing over a pot of boiling oil and it's bothering me a lot. If this is due to IRL distractions/stress, then I strongly suggest either requesting Sunwoo to sub out at this point, or finding a day to sit down and reassess the thread. This slot is making me uncomfortable in the sense that, if this continues and they ARE townside, I am not getting any helpful reads or interactions at this point. [SIDE NOTE: the role itself is easy enough to prove, and if they survive D1, I expect some form of posting/reads to be done during N1 from Aster.]

@Shinori I can't, for the life of me, find the page in which you posted the DF quote (it won't let me quote your quote of said post, which is making it obnoxious for me to keep flickering back and forth for said post) and you have so many damned posts your posting history won't show it either. Ugh. One sec.

Quote

I think you're giving me "first time scum" game vibes.  Your early posts felt awkward to me in a different manner than your previous game.  Did you know that you didn't do either of the following things in your first game?  You didn't recap any pages or vote someone just to counter balance a vote.  Your day 1 there though was mostly inactive but was still different in comparison.    I'm really trying to avoid using meta and stuff but this kind of stands out to me to some extent.  If you are a wolf - I'm sorry this probably feels shitty and frankly I could have maybe waited until later in the game to point this out.

That being said I'm going to treat you like I would treat another mafia player from here instead of just a new player.  So some of the following MAY feel unfair to you but I want you to read it and know that I'm just trying to aim to treat everyone fairly here.

A lot of your posts have fallen into "Let's recap the pages and what's happened in this game" which isn't really doing much for me to be honest.  Your town reads are myself, aster, and FE Fan. and outside of that it feels empty.  You kind of hedge on a handful of your reads.  It feels like you're being overly conscious of what your saying, but seem to be almost intentionally refusing to move most of the game one way or another in your reads, at least to me.  This kind of shows a mentality that I'm not generally fond of because it can lead to you swapping your read on someone in almost any post.

What I mean to say by this is that - if you are scum - outside of the three people you kind of 'town read' you could basically go anywhere with the rest of the game.  Your read on eury could go to town or scum, your read on ichigo could swing either way.  And it kind of makes me feel like you're fine with almost anyone going over.  You have no clear "line in the sand" drawn and even your 'town read' on FE fan seems kind of flimsy and weak enough that if you swapped it with your current posting, it would seem natural.

1. The recapping or rehashing of other people (this includes the constant use of the 1v1 thing with Jamie/Ichigo) did bother me, because it's the sheeping without adding anything else to the mix. Easy to do to fabricate actual scum hunting.

2. Italicized came out even in the more recent posts/vote moves, etc. Which I had a hard time following the logic/structure behind. A lot of it feels worse as the day phase wore on, and in the pages leading up to the claims and coming to the end of D1, it's not doing DF any favors and is pushing them away from Null leaning more scum for me atm.

3. The underlined came about when the unvoting of Jamie seemed to occur PRIOR to CLAIM with little to no justification. I saw nothing that was directly said or done (DF claims in that post that responses were favorable leading to the unvote, but when I re-read the pages, I saw nothing directly asked/interacted between Jamie x DF conversations that would generate any form of vibes in that manner? 

I will agree that the DR slot is looking worse in my books, and is a solid contender at this point for Lynch option today. Unless any claim from DF comes out in a light that is far more likely to be townside, I am willing to move my vote to them to confirm today's lynch.

[Shinori]

1 minute ago, Bluedoom said:

How do I ISO again?

You have to go download the script.  It's posted in the sf mafia thread, i don't remember which.

[Bluedoom]

F, I can't do that on mobile, need to do this the old fashioned way then 

[Eurykins]

Also Elieson not being present for basically all of D1 warrants him getting Vig'd tbh. I do not like the fact that he promised content and has literally posted NOTHING. 

[Shinori]

@DefyingFates Should probably claim.

[Sunwoo]

Votals

DefyingFates (3): Shinori, Ichigo, Bluedoom
Aster (2): Eurykins, Jamie
Ichigo (1): DefyingFates

Not Voting (3): Aster, Elieson, FE Fan

D1 ends in approximately 1.5 hours. There will be no hammer on D1.

[Shinori]

I kind of think Elie just signed up partially out of necessity.  So I don't want to attack them too much for it, but yeh I agree to some extent.

Mind you I have some stuff to say come closer to EoD.

[Eurykins]

##Unvote
##Vote: @DefyingFates

No hammer on D1, so I'm fine with this.  I swear if we get a claim 1 minute before D1 ends, I'm gonna have some choice words (if it influences any factors/reads thus far).

[Shinori]

I'll be honest - if DF's claim is alignment indicative, we should talk about where we might go after.

 

Part of me actually just thinks of going Elie but I know it's a TERRIBLE idea.

[Shinori]

If we didn't go elie - my honest opinion is that I probably look towards Ichigo/FE fan.  But then I'd feel terrible somewhat as well.

[Eurykins]

What was the notions against FEF/Ichigo specifically if you have them under DF for lynch? What prevents Jamie from being an option even if DF doesn't occur nor Aster? I might need to check reads post if you made one recently to follow train of thought process.

[Bluedoom]

I'm reading pages 10/11 right now and tbh I think Ichigo looks fine? There's been a sense of calm while he has been defending himself and tbh DF has been looking worse and worse since a lot of his posts feel like they're setting him up for a lynch. Also DF asks people why they're tling eury/me despite having us up high on his list but not explaining it at all.