Predicting the remaining Grand Hero Battle candidates: Day 7: Sacred Stones

[Jotari]

So, this is something I thought I'd throw together. A day by day analysis of the remaining potential Grand Hero Battle candidates from each title in the series. We calculate how many banners a game is likely to have left via the size of it's remaining playable roster, and then vote in a straw poll which of them is most likely to be chosen as the GHB. The candidates are selected from all of the remaining units not in Heroes that are on Choose Your Legends. NPCs (including non-combatant NPCs like Jorge) and player units who are fought as enemies make up the candidates. For Archanea that means

NPCs
*Anna
*Lang
*Malledus

Playable Enemies
*Darros
*Jake
*Horace
*Etzel
*Roger
*Samson
*Lorenz
*Frost
*Samuel
*Warren
*Caesar
*Radd
*Dice

Archanea still has a staggering 34 playable units not in the game, which means if we get at least 4 new units per banner (probably less), there are still at least 9 Archanea banners left to complete its roster. So you can vote for 9 of the above selection. Here is the voting link. Tell me if I missed any characters

https://strawpoll.com/BDyNz9NYJyR

Archanea is in a strange case where almost every candidate left is actually among the playable roster. The only bone fide enemy unit left from Archanea is Lang. Also, I'm not counting units that are only an enemy for mechanical reasons like Rickard or Xane. You can vote for who you think is most likely or who you personally want. Personally I'd vote for Jiol if he were available, but he's not on CYL and so far the only non-CYL characters they've added to the game have been Mythics.

Some things to bear in mind, this is voting for who you think will be Grand Hero Battle material. So if you really like a playable character you might not want them to be a GHB since they tend to be less good. And if you're going the predictive route then you've got to consider things like the fact that Lang and Samuel are from the same chapter map and that Radd and Caesar are likely to both be in forging bonds since those characters come as a pair. But, I'm not the boss of you, vote whatever way you want and post you're reasons why.

Tomorrow will be Shadow of Valentia which is kind of in a polar opposite scenario to Archanea.

Edited 5 hours ago by Jotari

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Darros, Horace, Roger, and Lorenz all seem like prime candidates for a GHB slot.

[Jotari]

6 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Darros, Horace, Roger, and Lorenz all seem like prime candidates for a GHB slot.

Lorenz seems to be the most popular choice for GHB. Which makes some kind of sense since we fight him in two separate games.

[Jotari]

Well, does seem like there was much activity here actually discussing it, but people voted in the poll, so I'm continuing. The results from Day 1 say that the most likely candidates for GHB are Lang, Lorenz, Jake, Horace, Etzel, Frost, Darros, Samuel and Roger or Dice.

Day 2, Valentia. These are the options

NPCs
*Barth
*Blake
*Desaix
*Dolth
*Garth
*Grieth
*Halcyon
*Irma
*Jedah
*Jerome
*Lawson
*Massena
*Nuibaba
*Rudolf
*Slayde
*Tatarrah

Playable Enemies
*Deen
*Shade

And, as I said before, Valentia is in the polar opposite situation to Archanea. Archanea has too many characters left to get in the game and almost all the GHBs are playable characters. Valentia has too few characters left and almost all the GHBs are NPCs, and some pretty major ones at that. Valentia also has only 3 playable characters left on the banner. But, we have the potential to get a Cipher banner out of it too even though the DLC characters aren't on CYL. So I've set the number of votes to 2...which means it's pretty much guaranteed they give us Jedah and Rudolf. I mean, how could they not? They are far bigger characters than all the rest. Of course, we only got a singular new playable character last time they had a Valentia banner, so who knows how much the slow down will be. They might try to stretch it out to another banner by using NPCs like Irma, Halycon and Massena. Still, the number of GHB candidates versus the number of banners is small, which is a shame because Nuibaba and Slayde are also somewhat major characters, and even someone would like Blake would make for a good GHB since he has a distinctive map and weapon. But, we're in this situation we're in now. Here's the poll.

https://strawpoll.com/PKgle0BWoZp

Edited Thursday at 10:54 AM by Jotari

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Jedah and Rudolf are the obvious Valentia choices, and I feel Desaix has gained steam thanks to CYL.

Edited Friday at 01:35 AM by Fire Emblem Fan

[Jotari]

For Shadows of Valentia the people voted Jedah and Desaix as the most likely to be Grand Hero Battle units, defying my prediction of a Jeddah Rudolf sweep. Now we're on day 3 with Genealogy of the Holy War. Kind of feels like the first normal vote where there's a decent options from both playable and NPC units. Here are the options

NPCs
*Aida
*Andrey
*Arvis (Late Story)
*Bloom
*Brian
*Byron
*Chagall
*Cimbaeth
*Danann
*Ishtore
*Kutuzov
*Lombard
*Manfroy
*Munnir
*Reptor
*Sandima
*Scipio

Playable Enemies
*Chulainn
*Beowolf
*Iuchar
*Iucharba
*Linda
*Asaello
*Hannibal

And we have 31  playable units from Genealogy still waiting to get in the game which means at least 8 more banners. Though that's assuming they actually intend to put in the substitute units.

https://strawpoll.com/w4nWWoGDlnA

Edited Friday at 03:20 PM by Jotari

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'd have to think that Manfroy is gonna be coming at some point, and a GHB slot would be right on point for him. Reptor and Bloom I can see, and maybe Chulainn for playable characters. Iucharba and Iuchar are prime candidates, too.

[Jotari]

45 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I'd have to think that Manfroy is gonna be coming at some point, and a GHB slot would be right on point for him. Reptor and Bloom I can see, and maybe Chulainn for playable characters. Iucharba and Iuchar are prime candidates, too.

Iuchar and Iucharba have an issue of which would you pick? It'd be strange for one of them to be on a banner and have a forging bonds while the other is left as a GHB (though it would be somewhat game accurate). Splitting over two banners also seems weird. On the other hand since they have the same weapon types both of them being on the same banner wouldn't work perfectly either. So maybe a GHB and forging bonds where one of them represents both of them would work best, like Marla and Hestia showing up on Sonia's forging bonds.

[Jotari]

The results from Genealogy are Manfroy, Bloom, Ishtore, Lombard, Chulainn, Beowolf, and a four way tie between Aida, Chagall, Reptor and Hannibal. It should be noted Manfroy was well in the lead with 20 votes. Ishtore is the one that surprises me, guess people like the Ishtar connection. Also surprised Lombard is so far ahead of Reptor, guess people want to see a Helswath user more than the duo with the slightly larger plot focus. Now, on to Thracia 776.

NPC
*Dryas
*Raydrik

Playable Enemies
*Marty
*Lifis
*Dalsin
*Shiva
*Fred
*Troude
*Ilios
*Misha
*Shannam
*Xavier
*Amalda
*Conomor

 

Thracia is in a situation quite like Archanea with only one proper enemy left, Raydrik. Though there's a decent chance of seeing Dryas since they've already put August in (August was a banner unit though, so they might follow suit). He only has one arm in terms of canon which would be interesting to see on a sprite. Anyway, the majority of GHB units will be playable enemies, so the focus would largely be on which. 31 playable units to get into Thracia so this vote is set to 8 again.

https://strawpoll.com/XOgOVQ682n3

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Raydrik is definitely the most obvious and probable candidate. Lifis and Troude strike me as likely, as well.

[Jotari]

7 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Raydrik is definitely the most obvious and probable candidate. Lifis and Troude strike me as likely, as well.

Troude would suit GHB in the sense that he basically has no personality and would this be suited better there than on a banner which would mean a forging bonds. On the other hand, I feel like he might have missed his chance so to speak, given all the other Dandelions are already in the game. If the game runs indefinitely then sure, he will eventually get into the game by virtue of being a playable character, but he's probably one of the last characters they care about adding.

[genesis]

Theres Grahyne, Ethnia and Sigriun from Judgral. 

 

From Valentia there's Liprica and Lima. But I think Liprica fits a main banner simply because theres few women and characters overall 

Edited Sunday at 05:28 AM by genesis

[Jotari]

3 hours ago, genesis said:

Theres Grahyne, Ethnia and Sigriun from Judgral. 

 

From Valentia there's Liprica and Lima. But I think Liprica fits a main banner simply because theres few women and characters overall 

I'd love to see Lima on a forging bonds, but not on CYL so he doesn't seem to be in the range of their consideration. Of course, with Shadows of Valentia having so few characters they might start branching off into more experimental territory like that.

[Jotari]

Thracia results are in and the most likely GHB candidates are Raydrik, Lifis, Shannam, Shiva, Xavier, Troude, Misha and Illios. Today's options for Binding Blade are

NPCs
*Old Eliwood
*Old Hector
*Jahn

Playable Enemies
*Douglas
*Garret
*Sin
*Zeiss

 

Binding Blade's candidates are characterized by being surprisingly limited. The only NPCs are the older versions of Eliwood and Hector (who should have gotten in years ago on the Valentines seasonal that was specifically about hanging out with their kids) and Jahn, the only actual antagonist. And we only have four playable characters left who start as enemies, despite Binding Blade feeling like that's the case with a lot of enemies. I guess a lot of them got in as regular units so far while they were diligent about adding the enemies as GHB. People hoping for lesser bosses like Flaer or Sigin might actually get their wish if the game runs long enough. For now though, since we have 22/4 = at least 6 banners left. Which means with only 7 candidates you're essentially picking who you don't think is suited to GHB.

https://strawpoll.com/GPgVYD70pna

[Jotari]

Sourcing some people's opinions on characters for tomorrow's candidates. Namely, Durban and Roland, who seem far more likely to be Mythics than GHB. Baby Guinevere who it's just ridiculous to think of being anything but a backpack unit for a seasonal. Young Zephiel who already has a seasonal and doesn't really feel big enough to have a base form (plus is already a GHB as his older self). And Young Murdock who is also already a GHB as his older self and looks near identical. I'm thinking of eliminating all of these from the poll for tomorrow. Thoughts?

 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I think Jahn is an obvious pick for Binding Blade. Garret, Douglas, I could see both of them. I think they could pull a surprise and use that Pegasus Knight who's on the Ilia route, the one connected to Juno.

11 hours ago, Jotari said:

Sourcing some people's opinions on characters for tomorrow's candidates. Namely, Durban and Roland, who seem far more likely to be Mythics than GHB. Baby Guinevere who it's just ridiculous to think of being anything but a backpack unit for a seasonal. Young Zephiel who already has a seasonal and doesn't really feel big enough to have a base form (plus is already a GHB as his older self). And Young Murdock who is also already a GHB as his older self and looks near identical. I'm thinking of eliminating all of these from the poll for tomorrow. Thoughts?

 

Yeah just eliminate them, they very likely aren't happening.

[Jotari]

Results from yesterday, we have 7 options and only 6 choices and the result was the the character least favourite for a Grand Hero Battle is Old Eliwood, by quite a bit. Jahn was the most popular followed by Garret, Douglas, Zeiss, Sin and Old Hector. I'm a bit surprised Garret placed so high. Now, on to the prequel.

NPCs
*Brendan
*Desmond
*Elbert
*Eleanora
*Ephidel
*Hellene
*Lundgren
*Uther

Playable Enemies
*Geitz
*Vaida

 

Blazing Blade is characterized by having a quite a high number of non-boss NPCs yet. Even Brendan Reed is never actually fought in his human version, only has a morph, which would probably be better suited to a fallen banner. Desmond and Hellene are never shown to have any combat ability but I don't think it'd be too strange giving them weapons. Uther is in the same boat but could probably reuse some Hector sprites (and look pretty good while doing it). Ephidel has one scripted battle in the game but is famously unfought. Meaning the only actual boss from CYL that we've yet to see is Lundgren, who also happens to be the lest popular character on CYL by both total votes and average votes (and Desmond is second). So, that's a pretty weird mix. With 11 playable characters still waiting to get into the game you have 3 votes this round.

https://strawpoll.com/poy9kweRpgJ

 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I don't want them to use Geitz or Vaida as a GHB, but I fear it's inevitable. Ephidel and Lundgren both seem like very possible candidates, as well.

[Jotari]

And results are in for Blazing Blade. The three most wanted are Ephidel, Brendan and Lundgren. A little surprised Lundgren's there, I suppose he is the only one on the list who is an actual boss in the game (counting Brendan and Zombie Brendan as different people), but, fun fact, Lundgren has received more votes in this poll than he has in any given year of Choose Your Legends. He is literally the least popular Fire Emblem character noteworthy enough for consideration. Anyway, today's options are

NPCs
*Fado
*Hayden
*Ismaire
*Morva

Playable Enemies
*None. Literally none. Sacred Stones has a pretty decent villain's cast but it's light on playable enemies and all the ones that could be conceived as such are already in the game.

So all of our options are NPCs, and of those NPCs, Morva is the only one that's actually fought, and even he would probably be better suited to a Fallen Banner. A bit of a weird one alright and definitely a case study for adding more characters to Choose Your Legends. Pablo is the noteably absence to me, being the leader of a country and a boss you fight in two different occasions (Aias from that chapter is also decently cool). Sacred Stones only has 6 playable characters not in the game so you only get two choices for this one.

https://strawpoll.com/PKgle0j2aZp

Tomorrow will be Tellius which I'll be doing as a single vote. I know Tellius banners are split by game, but we also get them with the frequency of a single game (unfortunately). Ashunera and Deghensea are going to be off the list, but I'm going to keep Sephiran on since he has two incarnations and thus a bit more likelihood to be both a Mythic and a GHB.

Edited 5 hours ago by Jotari