Mini Mafia Round 5

[Balcerzak]

Fayt. You're going to need to expound on that. I've developed a fair number of plausible scenarios in which either of you would be a good lynch choice. If you can't show that your reasons line up with my own, or even contributing meaningfully to town discussion in some way, then I may just take the chance, and give Tables the win.

This will be graded.

Xeno says never.

[Balcerzak]

Err. Google now informs me I've misremembered the name. Zeno, I suppose.

[Fayt Zelpher]

Alright - here's what happened last night. I should mention that I'm actually Granny at this point.

Life believed this entire time that I was the yak, and had me in contact with the doctor to protect me. Of course, being Granny (yes, I've been granny playing the fool this whole time), this didn't work....

Bizz shot Life, knowing that he was fool and that she couldn't shoot me for obvious reasons. Obviously, she didn't want to shoot Ninji either, for he can help her win the game.

Obviously though, because we're still playing, that means that one of us is still yakked, and while I have no reason for either of you to trust me, I wasn't the one yakked. That means that either one of you were converted.

Now, with no doctor, fool, or yak alive, that leaves a shrink, a lyncher, and Granny alive, and I know that I'm Granny. Furthermore, I'm also about 80% sure that Balcerzak is really the shrink and Tables is lyncher. In addition, the shrink's best course of action in the absence of other information is to shrink himself (thereby guaranteeing a chance that a townie is being protected from conversion). Yes, he could have been targeted to shrink someone else, and there's a roughly 20% contingency chance that Balcerzak and Bizz were teaming up, and he's really the Vanilla now. If so, I lose, and there's no way around it.

Nevertheless, I figure that the chances are about 3:1 in favor of Tables being the Vanilla. In the presence of his reflexive counter vote for me, I increase that probability from 75 to 85%.

Therefore, knowing all this, I must ask you Balcerzak to vote for Tables - you can't lose if you do. Either you're shrink and Tables is mafia, in which case we both win, or you're mafia and Tables is lyncher - and you joint-win with Bizz. Of course, there's a chance that I was converted; however, I would like to provide some sort of assurance that I'm still Granny and very much a townie

So, knowing this, are you prepared to cast that vote for Tables, Balcerzak?

[Tables]

That's... interesting. Lots and lots of evidence only dead people could verify. Of course, that's being a bit unfair, since you don't have any choice.

Check back to Life's post earlier this page. It's true I sent that, and it's true that Ninji got it as well. In fact, Ninji sent back a message saying he thought it was a good plan, but after Life's post, he must have assumed that if Life were the Yak then I'd be a likely target for him to kill . Perhaps I'm wrong in that, perhaps Ninji has another reason, but that's the way I see this.

Here's something else: Fayt, why did you claim Yak? What did you think the benefit to the Granny was? Lyncher is simple, and if Life had followed through (and been Yak <_<), I would have given Ninji the real information, and we'd have a Night 1 victory. Of course, it didn't work but I figured he might still visit me, winning us the game.

[Fayt Zelpher]

Here's something else: Fayt, why did you claim Yak? What did you think the benefit to the Granny was? Lyncher is simple, and if Life had followed through (and been Yak <_<), I would have given Ninji the real information, and we'd have a Night 1 victory. Of course, it didn't work but I figured he might still visit me, winning us the game.

The benefit to convincing people that I'm Yak as Granny is effectively 0. The benefit of CLAIMING Yak as Granny, is that people assume that I'm doing so because I'm Lyncher, Doctor, or Fool. And lynching any of them is bad. The fact of the matter is, I played yesterday on a higher recursion level than you guys did, and now, if you get lynched today, I more than likely win. Yes, it's based on luck more than anything, but the fact remains that I don't think a single person believed I was someone that they wanted to lynch.

[Tables]

I can't think of any other evidence I have, so from here I think it's fair to say it's Bal's choice. I'll leave with this quote.

The benefit to convincing people that I'm Yak as Granny is effectively 0.

(Yeah, I took it out of context a little )

[Balcerzak]

Yeah. I'm gonna have to mull this over a little bit longer probably, but tomorrow morning I should be submitting the final vote.

I'm always a little uncomfortable in this position to be honest.

[Balcerzak]

Why the hell are both of your stories riddled with holes? Goddammit people. The only testimony I can trust comes from dead people. This is fucking ridiculous.

Right, I was thinking last night, and I think this is the simplest strategy that ensures all of us win. However, for it to work, Life, you have to be Yak (I'm fairly sure you are) and Ninji has to be doctor (which again, I'm fairly sure of).

Since my target is Ninji, it's hard for me to think of a way of getting him lynched, so instead Life yaks me with Ninji's protect, then tomorrow we force a no lynch, and Ninji gets yakked the next night, again protecting Life. With 3/6 players working to this plan then it should work, since we can force a NL tomorrow if necessary.

Alright - here's what happened last night. I should mention that I'm actually Granny at this point.

Life believed this entire time that I was the yak, and had me in contact with the doctor to protect me. Of course, being Granny (yes, I've been granny playing the fool this whole time), this didn't work....

There's one clear difference here. Since you're both claiming granny, and you both know actions done to you would result in death, yet only one of you let the fucking doc be on them on purpose. What a hilariously anti-town move that was Fayt.

Bizz shot Life, knowing that he was fool and that she couldn't shoot me for obvious reasons. Obviously, she didn't want to shoot Ninji either, for he can help her win the game.

This is dumb. It is entirely implausible for a yak to knowingly shoot the fool. Bizz doesn't like being confused, yes, and she enjoys shooting people that confuse her, but she's not dumb enough to shoot someone that would make her win, hands down. Consider this. Bizz shoots me, Life is alive. Life self-votes, Bizz's protege easily follows. Joint win. Even if we presume Ninji hadn't been stupid and got himself killed the Vanilla-Fool combo is enough to force No-Lynch, Vanilla kill, Joint win.

So given that analysis, it looks like Fayt Zelpher gets my vote, since Bal probably self-shrunk while I'm immune to conversions, leaving Fayt.

Granny isn't immune to conversions. You play EpicMafia, you should've seen at least one case of this. (Granny getting converted by Cult Leader is hilarious, as it just winds up in dead Cult+dead Granny.) Granny getting converted by Yak was also repeatedly acknowledged as a possibility throughout the course of the thread. I guess it's possible this was an honest mistake, but it also sort of comes off as a slight slip on your part.

Now, I go to my considerations about what the dead did, which I must admit is a little mystifying. I'm entirely curious why Bizz didn't shoot me, what with her initial guess that I was the shrink, and the fact that I basically confirmed it over PM. She may have been concerned with WIFOM, but clearly I wasn't recursing enough for that to be much of an issue, as both of you seemed to have figured it out without any issue (unless of course, Fayt was just parroting Tables). I honestly would expect Bizz to convert Tables, when the chips came down to it. She's never had particularly good relations with Fayt. I distinctly recall her offing him as Vig for being confusing, she was somewhat displeased with his performance in the recent Don't Lose Yo Village, and once again he was acting confusing, which is never a good thing for currying favor with her. On the other hand, we have Tables, who has a reputation for consistently solid play, who would easily make a good target for conversion. (It's possible the reason she left me alive because it's well known that she's fond of working with me and hoped the bandwagon would be on me, but that didn't play out, so it is a non-issue.)

Then there's the matter of Ninji. I have no clue why he thought it was a smart move to go outside if he wasn't defecting. Seriously. This boggles my mind so bad. And I can't figure out who he might actually have tried protecting, and thus whose claim of Granny has more validity. Obviously there's the good chance he might have protected Tables, but if so, why wouldn't he have informed him of it? It's also not unlikely he was lured in by the (incredibly stupid) proposition set forth by Fayt, as if he actually thought Fayt was yak, that would be the right way to defect.

The thing is both of you either actively tried to defect, or did such a good job faking it that I could care less, and I honestly wouldn't feel bad lynching either of you traitors. Maybe I'm hilariously old-fashioned, but I'm always fighting for the team I'm on. If someone causes me to change teams, you better believe I'll do my damnedest to win from that point forward, but I don't knowingly go in for sabotage. This is probably why I'm not that good at Mafia, to be perfectly honest, especially when combined with my inability to lie to someone with a straight face.

I have to vote Fayt on this one though. Tables, if I'm wrong, you have full permission to gloat.

[Fayt Zelpher]

Alright Spoon, go ahead and make this game officially over, okay?

*Fayt, the Grandpa, has shot himself*

Oh, and good job Tables and Bizz...

Edited May 20, 2010 by Fayt Zelpher

[Tables]

That error you pointed out, Bal, was me reading this:

If the shrink visits the granny the same night the granny is yakked, the granny will not be converted.

I misread it as I skimmed the topic as 'If the granny is yakked, the granny will not be converted'. And I've never seen it happen in Epic Mafia, I've played there but not enough to see unusual things like that (I don't think I've even played a game with conversion roles and grannies together).

[General Spoon]

Day 2 Results

Fayt Zelpher the Granny was lynched. The mafia wins!