Quantum Mafia

[Fayt Zelpher]

So, after much anticipation and suspense (not really), it's time for Quantum Mafia to start. This is a NO PM game. Please don't break this rule - it defeats the fun of the game. Besides, since you don't know if you're mafia or town, and certainly not whether someone else is, it's probably disadvantageous to do so. Each of you has been assigned a role number - after writing this thread - they will be distributed to each of you via PM - Please invite Tables to this PM; he is serving as co-moderator and technology specialist for this game.

The rules:

At the beginning of each (day and night) phase, a probability chart will be created detailing the chance you are town, scum, and dead. You'll be identified by player number on the chart (Player 1, player 2, etc., which will be given to you in place of a role assignment). Revealing or claiming your player number in any manner is grounds for a modkill - so don't. This rule has been deleted - go ahead and reveal your roles. Just no copying/pasting your PM.

Day Phase: Standard rules apply - each phase, all people who have a non-zero chance of being dead (yes, you can be partially dead in this game) will vote to lynch one member (or no-lynch as well). At this time, based on the probability that the person is town or scum, one alignment will be chosen (randomly) and all games in which that player is not that alignment will cease to exist (that is, the quantum state of the game collapses and certain game states are eliminated). At the end of the day, the probability grid will be updated.

Night Phase: First, each person who has a nonzero chance of being scum sends in a kill order that night

In all games in which that person is the alpha scum, the target gets killed.

In all games in which that person is the beta scum AND the alpha scum is already dead, the target gets killed.

All games in which the alpha scum shoots the beta scum are eliminated, because scum is scum.

Otherwise, nothing happens.

Next, all players with a nonzero chance of being a seer can elect to receive one vision that night. After all requests for visions are received, visions will be randomly given out based on the conditional probability that that player is scum given that you are the seer. After that, all incompatible quantum states are eliminated and the probability grid is updated again.

Other rules:

If someone is partially dead, their vote still counts completely, even if it's later revealed they'd been killed at night prior to that day.

A person that gets lynched will instantly become 100% dead.

If the chance of being a certain role (town, scum, or seer) becomes 0% or 100%, you will be informed.

When someone becomes 100% dead, their role must be determined if it is not already.

A note on the seer: Your vision is randomly determined based on the probability that your target is scum given that you're the seer. So, if you're seer in 22 games and your target is scum in 11 of those 22 games, there's a 11/22 (50%) chance that you'll get either vision. The fact that that person is scum in 45 games out of 140, for instance, has no bearing on your vision.

Cool Fact: There are two scum (an alpha scum and a beta scum), one seer (cop) and 8 townies in each game.

All game phases will last at least 24 hours long. With that said, I will not be enforcing a hard deadline on the starting and stopping of phases. If there's no activity in the thread and there's already a majority to lynch, I won't force you guys to wait until the 24 hours has been reached. On the other hand, given the complexity of the game, I will allow 48 and even 72 hour phases if they are so desired.

In any case, this game begins with Day Phase, so start voting. I will post the probability table and distribute player numbers shortly.

Day 1: Current number of Quantum States: 200

Day 1 Probabilities:

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead 
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      | 86.0% | 14.0% |  0.0%
2      | 80.0% | 20.0% |  0.0%
3      | 76.5% | 23.5% |  0.0%
4      | 79.0% | 21.0% |  0.0%
5      | 78.5% | 21.5% |  0.0%
6      | 81.5% | 18.5% |  0.0%
7      | 88.0% | 12.0% |  0.0%
8      | 81.5% | 18.5% |  0.0%
9      | 84.0% | 16.0% |  0.0%
10     | 81.0% | 19.0% |  0.0%
11     | 84.0% | 16.0% |  0.0%

Night 1: Current number of Quantum States: 200

Night 1 Probabilities:

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead 
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      | 86.0% | 14.0% |  0.0%
2      | 80.0% | 20.0% |  0.0%
3      | 76.5% | 23.5% |  0.0%
4      | 79.0% | 21.0% |  0.0%
5      | 78.5% | 21.5% |  0.0%
6      | 81.5% | 18.5% |  0.0%
7      | 88.0% | 12.0% |  0.0%
8      | 81.5% | 18.5% |  0.0%
9      | 84.0% | 16.0% |  0.0%
10     | 81.0% | 19.0% |  0.0%
11     | 84.0% | 16.0% |  0.0%

Day 2: Current number of Quantum States: 118

Games remaining: 121

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      | 83.5% | 16.5% |  0.0%
2      | 82.6% | 17.4% |  7.4%
3      | 72.7% | 27.3% |  0.0%
4      | 78.5% | 21.5% | 14.0%
5      | 76.0% | 24.0% |  0.0%
6      | 79.3% | 20.7% |  0.0%
7      | 89.3% | 10.7% |  0.0%
8      | 87.6% | 12.4% | 38.0%
9      | 84.3% | 15.7% | 18.2%
10     | 79.3% | 20.7% |  7.4%
11     | 86.8% | 13.2% | 14.9%

Night 2: Current number of Quantum States: 92

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      | 79.3% | 20.7% |  0.0%
2      | 79.3% | 20.7% |  9.8%
3      | 69.6% | 30.4% |  0.0%
4      | 73.9% | 26.1% |  0.0%
5      |100.0% | 0.0%  |100.0%
6      | 77.2% | 22.8% |  0.0%
7      | 85.9% | 14.1% |  0.0%
8      | 85.9% | 14.1% | 41.3%
9      | 84.8% | 15.2% | 21.7%
10     | 78.3% | 21.7% |  8.7%
11     | 85.9% | 14.1% | 18.5%

Day 3: Current number of Quantum States: 66

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      | 80.3% | 19.7% |  4.5%
2      | 77.3% | 22.7% | 18.2%
3      | 62.1% | 37.9% | 10.6%
4      | 74.2% | 25.8% | 31.8%
5      |100.0% |  0.0% |100.0%
6      | 78.8% | 21.2% | 15.2%
7      | 83.3% | 16.7% |  0.0%
8      | 90.9% | 9.1%  | 50.0%
9      | 86.4% | 13.6% | 21.2%
10     | 80.3% | 19.7% | 24.2%
11     | 86.4% | 13.6% | 24.2%

Night 3: Current number of Quantum States: 14

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      | 85.7% | 14.3% |  7.1%
2      | 78.6% | 21.4% | 35.7%
3      | 85.7% | 14.3% |  0.0%
4      | 92.9% |  7.1% | 50.0%
5      |100.0% |  0.0% |100.0%
6      |  0.0% |100.0% |100.0%
7      | 92.9% |  7.1% |  0.0%
8      | 92.9% |  7.1% | 57.1%
9      |100.0% |  0.0% |  7.1%
10     | 71.4% | 28.6% | 28.6%
11     |100.0% |  0.0% | 14.3%

Day 4: Current number of Quantum States: 12

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      | 91.7% |  8.3% |  8.3%
2      | 75.0% | 25.0% | 33.3%
3      | 91.7% |  8.3% |  8.3%
4      | 91.7% |  8.3% | 58.3%
5      |100.0% |  0.0% |100.0%
6      |  0.0% |100.0% |100.0%
7      | 91.7% |  8.3% |  8.3%
8      | 91.7% |  8.3% | 58.3%
9      |100.0% |  0.0% | 41.7%
10     | 66.7% | 33.3% | 41.7%
11     |100.0% |  0.0% | 41.7%

Night 4: Current number of Quantum States: 5

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      |100.0% |  0.0% | 20.0%
2      |100.0% |  0.0% |100.0%
3      | 80.0% | 20.0% |  0.0%
4      |100.0% |  0.0% | 60.0%
5      |100.0% |  0.0% |100.0%
6      |  0.0% |100.0% |100.0%
7      |100.0% |  0.0% |  0.0%
8      | 80.0% | 20.0% | 80.0%
9      |100.0% |  0.0% | 60.0%
10     | 40.0% | 60.0% | 40.0%
11     |100.0% |  0.0% | 40.0%

Day 5: Current number of Quantum States: 5

Player | Good  | Evil  | Dead
-------|-------|-------|-------
1      |100.0% |  0.0% | 20.0%
2      |100.0% |  0.0% |100.0%
3      | 80.0% | 20.0% |  0.0%
4      |100.0% |  0.0% | 60.0%
5      |100.0% |  0.0% |100.0%
6      |  0.0% |100.0% |100.0%
7      |100.0% |  0.0% | 80.0%
8      | 80.0% | 20.0% | 80.0%
9      |100.0% |  0.0% | 80.0%
10     | 40.0% | 60.0% | 40.0%
11     |100.0% |  0.0% | 40.0%

Potential Scum (players):

General Spoon

Lightning

Ether

Ulki

Dracohon

WoMC That was unfortunate. But he was scum... So be it.

BK-201

Bizz Had a hot date with the gallows.

Life

Sync the Tempest

Snike He died. :(

Edited June 8, 2010 by Fayt Zelpher

[Ether]

Can we have a player list?Or do we vote to Lynch a player number?

[Fayt Zelpher]

Can we have a player list?Or do we vote to Lynch a player number?

Yes, a list will be up shortly. You vote people, not player numbers.

[riariadne]

If we lynched people by player number we'd all vote for player #3 though =/

[Fayt Zelpher]

All roles have been distributed. If you have not done so already, please invite Tables to your role PM. All night actions will be performed in that PM.

[Deliriyum]

oh...looks like I missed the signups :(

[General Spoon]

Please invite Tables to this PM; he is serving as co-moderator and technology specialist for this game.

You know you can do that on your own. Infact, you could have done it as you were sending the PMs out.

[General Spoon]

No Lynch.

Edited June 2, 2010 by General Spoon

[Fayt Zelpher]

You know you can do that on your own. Infact, you could have done it as you were sending the PMs out.

I was just using the quick PM function right underneath your avatar... But it's done now, so don't worry about it.

[Snike]

No lynching today.

[Jaybee]

Gonna go with a No lynch.

[Zanarkin]

No lynch sounds like a good idea.

Edit: To put bold

Edited June 2, 2010 by Ulki

[Dracohon]

No lynch.

[Fayt Zelpher]

Alright, 5 out of 11 people agree to no lynch. So I'll go ahead and end it now.

Day 1 End: Nothing happened and everyone went to sleep.

Night 1 Begin: Since nothing happened, there's no need to update the probability tables, now is there? 200 legal game states remain.

Note: You MUST make a kill if you are scum in at least 1 legal game.

You are never REQUIRED to take a vision as seer.

[Jaybee]

So then do we message who to kill/seer via our role PMs?

[Tables]

Correct. Also, you can obviously send your Seer request at the same time as your kill request, and you can do both on the same person (since any game that you're the werewolf in, you're not the seer)

[General Spoon]

Does seering somebody remove the games where that seer result will be untrue?

[Tables]

Yes - it removes any game where you are the seer and the other person is the wrong result.

[General Spoon]

Can we seer ourself?

[Tables]

It would be pointless - in any game you are the seer, you have a 0% chance of being a Wolf. So, no.

[General Spoon]

Well, it wouldn't be pointless if your vision of yourself told you that you're seer. Then you would have to be the seer, as all games with you being a non-seer would be eliminated.

[Tables]

No, it would tell you with 100% certainty that in games where you are the Seer, that there's a 100% chance that you're the Seer. Ergo, you learn nothing.

The chance of getting various visions is based on the chance of someone being Scum, GIVEN THAT you are the Seer, and similarly, your result will only affect the games that you are the Seer in. For example, I could have a 20% chance of being scum, but by chance, 80% of the games you are Seer in, I'm scum in. Therefore, if you investigate me, there's an 80% chance of you finding I'm scum. A similar thing would happen if you investigate yourself. In the games that you're the Seer, you'd be guaranteed to find that your innocent. Does that tell you anything you didn't already know? Not really, you already knew that IF you are the Seer, then you're innocent.

Hope this makes more sense now.

[Fayt Zelpher]

Alright peoples, all orders have been submitted. I'm going to do some stuff with it tonight and hopefully Tables can do the updating so it's ready to go within the next 12 hours or so.

[General Spoon]

Is there any reason you can't do the update?

[Fayt Zelpher]

Is there any reason you can't do the update?

I'm working on it. But it takes time and I'm almost certain that I'll make mistakes, so I want him to cross check my work before we publicly go to Day 2. Don't worry though, once the number of game states goes down significantly, it'll take a lot less time to do everything, so this is going to be a long night phase, but we should have shorter ones after this one.