Mini Mafia Round 7

[riariadne]

##Vote Psychout50

I don't believe him about being tracker.

[riariadne]

ALSO YEAH I EXIST JUST HAVE A CAMP I'M GOING TO

[Scarlet]

##Vote Psychout50

I don't believe him about being tracker.

Yet you do believe Life's much less credible claim that came a lot later and has its target denying it, while psychout had it's target actually admitting that it had been tracked?

I believe we got ourselves our third mafioso here.

[Psych]

Watch us lynch one of them today, and either Raymond and I get killed tonight.

But yeah, I'm certain Ulki and Life are mafia now, but I'm starting to agree with you Raymond that Lightning is starting to look suspicious.

[Life]

Yet you do believe Life's much less credible claim that came a lot later and has its target denying it, while psychout had it's target actually admitting that it had been tracked?

OH HI, I'M SORRY THAT I HAVE A JOB AND I'M WORKING 35-40 HOURS A WEEK. Lynch Ulki for all I care. Don't lynch me because the logic in your brains is faulty.

If I was Mafia, wouldn't I claim to have a guilty on Psych rather than Raymond? Psych claimed Tracker while Raymond claimed... OH, NOTHING! Pretty sure the Mafia would love to lynch the tracker. Also, if I was truly Mafia, why would I put myself out there with an "obvious fake claim"? Don't you guys think that I'm a bit smarter than that? Or are you forgetting the game where I personally got 3/8+ Mafiosos to claim to me on Night 1?

[Life]

If you guys want my real opinion, I think the Mafia is Ulki, Psych (Janitor) and Raymond since I've done some thinking. There's a bunch of reasons for why.

1. Ulki is probably Mafia just because he's an idiot at defending himself (admitting to a "lucky tracking" is a horrible defense). He's probably sacrificing himself to make our resident Janitor look like a good guy.

2. There were only 2 Tracker claims instead of 3. One by Psych and one by myself. However, my tracker claim is false because I left a hint in this paragraph.

3. This is for the bolded part. Let's assume that WoMC was the bodyguard. If he died last night, then a Tracker has no protection at night. But going back to the second part (about how many people are in the mafia), a MYLO mislynch is a horrible idea and sets up a LYLO very soon. So he needs to out his claim on Day 1. But wait, he has no protection so the mafia can night kill him. So what's the best move for the town to protect [the real tracker]? A FAKE TRACKER OUT IN THE OPEN.

No matter what happened during the day phase, I was planning on CCing Tracker regardless. I'm a Townie with no powers but I wanted to see how Psych would respond or if the real Tracker actually came out of their shell (Mafia then has a 50/50 chance of hitting the real Tracker that night since they might try to aim at me instead). But since there were only two claims, I believe that the real Tracker (WoMC) was janned last night. Leaving me to believe that Psych is the Janitor (since he claimed Tracker).

So why was Psych trying to lynch Ulki but changed his vote to me even after Ulki "admitted" to being Mafia? Simple. He wants to look believable. I don't give a shit about looking believable since I already deduced that Psych must be the Janitor. If Ulki was lynched and found guilty, all of you are going to be waiting on his hand and foot. Clever, huh?

If I can think up an idea, someone else can too.

3. Raymond must be the last Mafia member. Look at him falling in step with Psych's ideas. Anything Psych says, Raymond follows. But obviously Raymond must be innocent because Psych must be, correct? ./sarcasm

So there you go. A true analysis on what's been going on in the game. Lynch me and you lynch a Townie who thought out the game for you. Lynch either Raymond or Psych and we will win this game. For a fact. Lynching Ulki won't really help since he's almost worse than useless (yeah Ulki, you truly suck that badly at Mafia).

[Life]

Last thing. Why the hell would Psych ever change his lynch target if he was the true Tracker? He has a guilty on a person. But he's trying to lynch someone that he THINKS is Mafia (myself) rather than someone that he KNOWS is Mafia (Ulki). He's clearly not stupid, he's just looking for an avenue to fuck over the town. And that just happens to involve the death of the town's smartest ally.

Think about these points. What's Psych going to say in return? Hurr durr, no I'm really Tracker but I want you lynched even though I don't have a report on you? Because if he doesn't change his lynch target back to Ulki in his next post, we have to lynch that motherfucking Janitor.

Oh and the bodyguard should probably protect me tonight anyways. Since the Mafia is obviously going to target me. Which means that a WIFOM game is about to start.

EDIT: ##Unvote

##Vote: psychout50 making it 3 votes for him and 3 votes for me

Edited July 8, 2010 by John Dory

[Psych]

If you thought WoMC was tracker, why did you claim? I did because I'm the real tracker, which will be proven if you lynch me.

If I was mafia, I wouldn't be stupid enough to lynch my partner, leading to another day, and a chance I could lose . I'd only want mafia gone if I was town.

Raymond followed me because I had a correct report. He changed his vote, and I followed because you're not just being defensive, you're lying your ass off and setting up a fucking castle to defend yourself. No wonder your avatar is Chef Ramsey. You yell at everyone until they're too scared to go against you, which in this case, would have the town win if they listen to me.

[Jaybee]

If I was mafia, I wouldn't be stupid enough to lynch my partner, leading to another day, and a chance I could lose . I'd only want mafia gone if I was town.

Raymond followed me because I had a correct report. He changed his vote, and I followed because you're not just being defensive, you're lying your ass off and setting up a fucking castle to defend yourself. No wonder your avatar is Chef Ramsey. You yell at everyone until they're too scared to go against you, which in this case, would have the town win if they listen to me.

Yes, you would. It's called "making yourself look innocent". Lynch Ulki, everyone thinks you're tracker. Kill someone, it's 4 vs 2 on D2. Claim you've got something on a townie, and you win N3.

Raymond doesn't know you have a correct report, yet he's mimicking your every move. Why? Because he's mafia, of course.

##Vote: Psychout50

[Scarlet]

OH HI, I'M SORRY THAT I HAVE A JOB AND I'M WORKING 35-40 HOURS A WEEK. Lynch Ulki for all I care. Don't lynch me because the logic in your brains is faulty.

I'm not voting for Ulki right now because for all I know, we could have two fake trackers at our hands here bussing each other.

You, on the other hand, claimed tracker with a report that couldn't possibly have happened, so I for one can obviously be 100% sure that you're not the tracker, and thus most likely mafia.

If I was Mafia, wouldn't I claim to have a guilty on Psych rather than Raymond? Psych claimed Tracker while Raymond claimed... OH, NOTHING! Pretty sure the Mafia would love to lynch the tracker. Also, if I was truly Mafia, why would I put myself out there with an "obvious fake claim"? Don't you guys think that I'm a bit smarter than that? Or are you forgetting the game where I personally got 3/8+ Mafiosos to claim to me on Night 1?

Well, that would be just a tiny bit too obvious, don't you think? In this game, the mafia doesn't give half a shit about who's lynched, as long as it's a townie, as they win in either case. We constantly are at MYLO here, and you're abusing this fact to fuck with the town's mind.

Life, you're doing this just because you're smart. But I sure as hell ain't gonna fall for it.

2. There were only 2 Tracker claims instead of 3. One by Psych and one by myself. However, my tracker claim is false because I left a hint in this paragraph.

[some quote]

Life, this is bull and you know it. The tracker can out himself perfectly safely regardless of who was killed on night 1 - if the BG was killed, there's still the watcher, who can then watch the tracker to spot any mafioso attacking them and proceed to out them the next day. This effectively sacrifices the tracker, but still dooms the mafia regardless. Or they can go out of their way and kill someone else, but risk getting tracked or watched anyway.

And if the watcher was killed, then the BG is obviously safe and sound and ready to sacrifice himself for the tracker.

You see, regardless of what happens, if another night phase happens, the mafia actually is at a great disadvantage, especially since they cannot jan another player. As such, their only reasonable shot at winning is to CC tracker to throw the town off and provoke a mislynch, insta-winning the game at D1. Choosing you of all mafiosos to claim tracker was a pretty obvious choice as well - no matter how often you fool them, the other players around here never seem to stop falling for your tricks. Choosing to claim to have a report on me also was a pretty obvious choice, as you know that I'd probably have seen through your trick even if you had picked someone else - so claiming a report on me had the potential to fool one more player than claiming a report on someone else would have. And just look at how magnificiently it seems to have worked.

No matter what happened during the day phase, I was planning on CCing Tracker regardless. I'm a Townie with no powers but I wanted to see how Psych would respond or if the real Tracker actually came out of their shell (Mafia then has a 50/50 chance of hitting the real Tracker that night since they might try to aim at me instead). But since there were only two claims, I believe that the real Tracker (WoMC) was janned last night. Leaving me to believe that Psych is the Janitor (since he claimed Tracker).

As I already mentioned above, claiming tracker as a townie makes no sense whatsoever in this setup, and you're smart enough to know that. Aside from the real tracker, only the mafia would do that. Possibly multiple times even, but I think (think, not know) psychout's claim is genuine.

So why was Psych trying to lynch Ulki but changed his vote to me even after Ulki "admitted" to being Mafia? Simple. He wants to look believable. I don't give a shit about looking believable since I already deduced that Psych must be the Janitor. If Ulki was lynched and found guilty, all of you are going to be waiting on his hand and foot. Clever, huh?

Y' know, you're contradicting yourself here. How is he going to lynch Ulki (and thus have all of us "waiting on his hand and foot") if he isn't even voting for him? And just what are you trying to do here right now, anyway? Aren't you trying a ton of a damn harder to look believable right now? Yet in my eyes, you only continue to look even worse with every single post you make, as you keep contradicting yourself and giving bullshit explanations for your actions.

3. Raymond must be the last Mafia member. Look at him falling in step with Psych's ideas. Anything Psych says, Raymond follows. But obviously Raymond must be innocent because Psych must be, correct? ./sarcasm

lol

As you might have noticed, I was the first one to vote for you, not psychout. This whole point is just plainly invalid.

So there you go. A true analysis on what's been going on in the game. Lynch me and you lynch a Townie who thought out the game for you. Lynch either Raymond or Psych and we will win this game. For a fact.

With "we" being the keyword here, as "we" in that case means "the mafia". lol nice try

Last thing. Why the hell would Psych ever change his lynch target if he was the true Tracker? He has a guilty on a person. But he's trying to lynch someone that he THINKS is Mafia (myself) rather than someone that he KNOWS is Mafia (Ulki). He's clearly not stupid, he's just looking for an avenue to fuck over the town. And that just happens to involve the death of the town's smartest ally.

We obviously need to reach a majority to lynch a mafioso. Since I voted for you, he obviously followed to make a majority possible, as if he's the tracker, he obviously knows that you can't be the real one and thus must be mafia.

Think about these points. What's Psych going to say in return? Hurr durr, no I'm really Tracker but I want you lynched even though I don't have a report on you? Because if he doesn't change his lynch target back to Ulki in his next post, we have to lynch that motherfucking Janitor.

Did you ever get the idea that we might not have two trackers in this game, and thus a second tracker claim will obviously not fool the real tracker

Oh and the bodyguard should probably protect me tonight anyways. Since the Mafia is obviously going to target me. Which means that a WIFOM game is about to start.

Just too bad that there's not even going to be a night if we mislynch today. Duh.

Oh, and Sync must be the last mafioso, not Lightning. Sync's spitting out the same bullshit Life does, which should be saying something.

[Jaybee]

Just too bad that there's not even going to be a night if we mislynch today. Duh.

Oh, and Sync must be the last mafioso, not Lightning. Sync's spitting out the same bullshit Life does, which should be saying something.

Umm, yes, there will be a night 2. If the BG wasn't janned, he can intercept the mafia, dragging one of them to the grave with him. Looks like someone's spoke a little too soon, eh, mafia man?

I'm a normal townie that's read through all the arguments and decided that Life's was more convincing.

[Scarlet]

Umm, yes, there will be a night 2. If the BG wasn't janned, he can intercept the mafia, dragging one of them to the grave with him.

You're right about that one, but how likely exactly is that to happen? It requires our BG to not be janned (83,33% chance) and to actually pick the right person to protect, and he can't protect himself as far as I'm aware. So that'd leave only another 16,67% chance for the town to not lose after the night's done. In total, that makes for just a 13,89% chance that we don't lose if we mislynch.

So, we obviously don't want to mislynch.

Also, Sync, you just made it plainly obvious that you're mafia. Good job.

[BK-201]

You're right about that one, but how likely exactly is that to happen? It requires our BG to not be janned (83,33% chance) and to actually pick the right person to protect, and he can't protect himself as far as I'm aware. So that'd leave only another 16,67% chance for the town to not lose after the night's done. In total, that makes for just a 13,89% chance that we don't lose if we mislynch.

So, we obviously don't want to mislynch.

Also, Sync, you just made it plainly obvious that you're mafia. Good job.

Forgive my ignorance, but how exactly has Sync made it obvious that he's mafia? If you're referring to his statement, I really don't he made those calculations.

We obviously need to reach a majority to lynch a mafioso. Since I voted for you, he obviously followed to make a majority possible, as if he's the tracker, he obviously knows that you can't be the real one and thus must be mafia.

Or he could be a fake that knows that a mislynch pretty much means that the town loses.

[Scarlet]

Forgive my ignorance, but how exactly has Sync made it obvious that he's mafia? If you're referring to his statement, I really don't he made those calculations.

Well, I guess I overreacted, but given the fact that I know that Life is most likely mafia he most certainly looks fishy to me.

Or he could be a fake that knows that a mislynch pretty much means that the town loses.

Could be. Except that - I know I have no "public" evidence, but I know that Life's a fake tracker as he cannot possibly have tracked me - psychout would still be agreeing to lynch a mafioso, which is just what we want.

And as I already said, the real tracker is obviously not going to be fooled by a fake tracker, so psychout's vote for Life is perfectly justified.

[Jaybee]

You're right about that one, but how likely exactly is that to happen? It requires our BG to not be janned (83,33% chance) and to actually pick the right person to protect, and he can't protect himself as far as I'm aware. So that'd leave only another 16,67% chance for the town to not lose after the night's done. In total, that makes for just a 13,89% chance that we don't lose if we mislynch.

So, we obviously don't want to mislynch.

Also, Sync, you just made it plainly obvious that you're mafia. Good job.

... You know what, yeah, you're right.

I'm sorry, but how exactly? I was merely nitpicking at your statement, and I realised you conveniently stated that there wouldn't be no night phase. You seemed so sure of it that in fact, I get the feeling that Weapons WAS the BG, and you want Life gone so damn fast so you can shoot whomever you desire on N2.

[Scarlet]

I'm sorry, but how exactly? I was merely nitpicking at your statement, and I realised you conveniently stated that there wouldn't be no night phase. You seemed so sure of it that in fact, I get the feeling that Weapons WAS the BG, and you want Life gone so damn fast so you can shoot whomever you desire on N2.

Yeah, forget about it, I overreacted. I have no evidence against you, so I'll save that for later.

I have no clue if Weapons was the BG or not, though it of course is perfectly possible.

If I wanted Life "gone damn fast", I would have outright voted for him even before he claimed tracker, for probably no really justifiable reason.

Heck, I even wanted to do a no lynch, which is possibly one of the worst things a mafioso could possibly do in this setup. Yeah, I changed my vote afterwards, and me pointing this whole thing out right now probably makes me even more likely to be mafia, but what the hell. How can you possibly not see that if you're a townie?

Also, how are Life's arguments more convincing than mine, if I may ask? I pointed out quite a lot of discrepancies in them and nobody has adressed them yet.

[BK-201]

That was more like lucky tracking >_>

I still feel this needs to be adressed. Sync quoted it a page ago, yet not much was done about it. I don't think a person that is part of the town would say that. That's as feasible as a townie claiming mafia. I want to hear from Ulki.

Also, I wouldn't jump into the Raymond vs Life issue so quickly, Sync. There are still things that need to be tied up.

[Zanarkin]

Eh, what can i say? A stupid comment indeed.

[BK-201]

Eh, what can i say? A stupid comment indeed.

I dunno, if you were a town it would seem like the last thing you'd like to say in a mylo.

[Zanarkin]

i know, however i could not think with stuff to defend my self with so i just pretty much gave up like i have done in many games.

[BK-201]

Ulki, can you claim as a role right now?

[Zanarkin]

I am a townie.

[BK-201]

I am a townie.

We have Raymond and Sync claiming townie, and I am a townie. From the opening post it appears there are three normal townies. Also, Raymond is pretty certain of Psychout being the tracker. Therefore, you are mafia unless Raymond or Sync is lying.

##Vote Ulki

I'd rather lynch someone I'm more sure of being mafia as it buys us more time.

[Zanarkin]

However, we can't be sure of the claim neither of you, sync, or Raymond. Can we now?

[BK-201]

However, we can't be sure of the claim neither of you, sync, or Raymond. Can we now?

It seems that most are agreed upon Psychout's status as a tracker. The mafia has a 1/8 chance of killing the tracker N1, that's 12.5%. Life has stated that he isn't the tracker, I feel that the best chance of lynching a mafia is to lynch you.