Kriemhild Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Blitzy, Kay is not 100% confirmed Spy. Doing something that a Resistance member wouldn't normally do does NOT necessarily mean that it's something that a Spy would do. Try to think about what Kay would have done if she really was a Spy. If she KNEW that one of Reinfleche/Kirsche/Slayer was definitely a Spy, she would have known that the mission would be sabotaged. Which means that the people who voted Yes will fall into suspicion, particularly someone who listed all three of those people in the bottom of their list. From one angle, Kay wouldn't have risked voting Yes if she was absolutely certain that the mission would get sabotaged, so the results imply that she's Resistance. On another angle, Kay could have been a Spy and voted Yes because it was an opportunity to ensure that the mission gets sabotaged, since she didn't want to risk a Spy-less team being sent afterwards that would be approved. I will admit, though, since it's so odd for Kay to have voted Yes while being Resistance, it seems quite likely that she's a Spy. However, this is not a confirmed fact, and it would be unwise to treat it as such. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitz Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Blitzy, Kay is not 100% confirmed Spy. Doing something that a Resistance member wouldn't normally do does NOT necessarily mean that it's something that a Spy would do. Try to think about what Kay would have done if she really was a Spy. If she KNEW that one of Reinfleche/Kirsche/Slayer was definitely a Spy, she would have known that the mission would be sabotaged. Which means that the people who voted Yes will fall into suspicion, particularly someone who listed all three of those people in the bottom of their list. From one angle, Kay wouldn't have risked voting Yes if she was absolutely certain that the mission would get sabotaged, so the results imply that she's Resistance. On another angle, Kay could have been a Spy and voted Yes because it was an opportunity to ensure that the mission gets sabotaged, since she didn't want to risk a Spy-less team being sent afterwards that would be approved. I will admit, though, since it's so odd for Kay to have voted Yes while being Resistance, it seems quite likely that she's a Spy. However, this is not a confirmed fact, and it would be unwise to treat it as such. well, the mission was NOT a double sabotage. I know I am clean and I like to think you are clean too(due to all the things you have done so far) unless both spies were selected, I don't see how Kay can not be scum(unless you are saying you are scum,which I doubt or a both spies sent in on the mission). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Alright, I know that I'm the guy who keeps telling people not to reveal their vote or their reasoning behind them until the votes are revealed but I'm gonna be a big hypocrite and explain my views right now. It is a fact that Mission 2.2 carried at least one Spy, because it was sabotaged. This is pretty much the only objective conclusion that we can arrive at from our data. What follows are all theories that are based around it. At least one Slayer/Reinfleche/Kirsche is a Spy. It should be worth noting that as far as objective data is concerned, Reinfleche and Kirsche are absolutely identical. They were proposed on teams together, and they have made identical votes for every proposal. We cannot distinguish between them yet, except by the posts that they make. Case 1: If one of Reinfleche/Kirsche is a Spy. Looking back at 2.1, both Reinfleche and Kirsche were part of the proposal. However, everybody voted No. Which means that the Spies, whoever they are, didn't like the mission. But if Reinfleche/Kirsche was a Spy, then it would have been a good opportunity to sabotage the mission. From what I can deduce, the most logical conclusion why they wouldn't accept it is because Kay was also a Spy and they didn't want two Spies in. This is also consistent with the fact that Kay upvoted 2.2, where one of Reinfleche/Kirsche was a Spy. With two Spies on 2.1, everybody rejected it. With one Spy on 2.2, the Spies upvoted it, along with two other Resistance members, and sabotaged the mission. Going by this theory, the two Spies are Kay and one of Reinfleche/Kirsche. Case 2: If Slayer is the Spy. Notice that Slayer was not part of 2.1's proposal. And all of the Spies rejected it. However, if Slayer was a Spy, that means there isn't any possibility of two Spies being on 2.1. The only reason, then, why the Spies would reject the proposal is if there were actually NO Spies at all. This would imply that Kay is Resistance, which brings up the question of why Kay would have upvoted proposal 2.2. Regardless of why she did it, the point is that this theory implies that the two Spies are Slayer and one of Proto/Blitzy. The relevance of these theories is that Kirsche's proposal now seems like a pretty bad idea. He's sending both of Reinfleche/Kirsche AND Proto/Blitzy. If the situation is of either of the two cases I mentioned above, then it not only means that there is a Spy being sent on the mission, but it also eliminates the possibility of both Spies being sent. Zero Spies > Two Spies > One Spy, and picking a team that's almost guaranteed to have only one Spy is the worst idea. Normally, I'd have waited until after the votes are revealed to explain why I voted No, but the possibility that you guys might have foolishly voted Yes and brought about your own destruction compelled me to do this right now. Other possibilities involve two Spies being sent on Mission 2.2, which still makes it a bad idea for BOTH of Reinfleche/Kirsche to be included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Finally a proper, in depth, explanation as to why my team was bad, and one that I'll accept. Blitz take notes from Proto please, because he can actually say what he thinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Tables is it too late to change my team back to the original one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 No. Still waiting on a few votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 No. Still waiting on a few votes. So, does this mean we should send our votes again as if it were the original proposal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Ok, since you said it isn't too late, I'm gonna send in my original team. ##Send: kirsche, proto, blitz and slayer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitz Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 So, does this mean we should send our votes again as if it were the original proposal? that is what I am doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Alright, so my exams just ended yesterday, which means I should be much more active from now on. But I'll wait for this proposal's results before discussing the votes for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Sorry for the delay. It was moving back to uni weekend. Mission Prop 3.1 Team: Cap'n Flint, SlayerX, Kiku-Ichimonji, Kirsche, Yes: Cap'n Flint, SlayerX, Kiku-Ichimonji, Kirsche, No: Kay, Dave Strider, Result: Yes - 4, No - 2 Proposal passes. You four, give me your orders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 (edited) Mission 3 result Co-operate Co-operate Co-operate Sabotage Mission fails. Score is now Resistance - 1, Spy - 2 I believe that makes it Kay's turn to submit a mission. Also as most of you have played 1-2 times before, I'm going to auto-resolve every mission from now on (Spies would only not sabotage if they were trolling). And if either side believes they can force a win, feel free to post proving it, and I'll end the game (this means you have to be absolutely certain that regardless of what the other side did, you'll win) Edited January 10, 2012 by Tableskitty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I suggest a mission of rein, proto, and blitz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I would agree to that mission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I would agree to that mission. I don't know how to feel about that... :/ It makes sense from what has happened, that you or me be the spy. In this case it'd be you cause i'm resistance (not that i'm going to get into this silly argument cause there is no way it end up in something helpful, because it'll be my word against yours, meaning ends in a tie). So really it'd be odd that you mention you agree with it from my perspective. Of course it could always be wifom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 There are just not good otehr options at this stage. We all know why Kay is scummy, and one of you, me and rein are scum. Considering this and how someone sabotaged this mission, my main instinct for the second spy is you. I agree with your proposal, because it makes the most logical team if I'm not on it. I dunno, I get the feeling you're trying to look good by suggesting that so quick, so when it passes you can be like "see, if I was cylon, I'd have suggested a cylon be on that team instead of 3 resistance members". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I agree with your proposal, because it makes the most logical team if I'm not on it. I dunno, I get the feeling you're trying to look good by suggesting that so quick, so when it passes you can be like "see, if I was cylon, I'd have suggested a cylon be on that team instead of 3 resistance members". not necessarily trying to look good. Also i doubt that would ever work in this forest. The reason i suggested it was because i know i wouldn't be trusted, and i wanted to see what people would say about it. Besides, its the only logical team to choose at this point, because as you said one of me, you, or rein are spies. The other being most likely Kay. Me and you were on the last failed mission, while Kay was out of it. It makes sense that the next most trusted person should be rein who was also out of it. I didn't mention it to try to look good, thats too obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Alright, let's see what stuff we learned from these results: 1. Kay and Reinfleche are not both Spies. Because somebody must have sabotaged the mission. 2. If Kirsche is a Spy, his partner is not Slayer, Proto, Blitzy, or Reinfleche. This is because he would not have proposed a mission knowing that there are two spies in it. I had hoped that Mission 3 would have more proposals though, so I could deduce more information of this nature, but unfortunately, Kirsche's plan seemed too good. And now that Mission 3 is over, it's okay for me to point out that this also applies to Mission 2.2, in that if Reinfleche is a Spy, his partner isn't Kirsche or Slayer. 3. The mission was not sabotaged by Blitzy, because he was not online after the mission was confirmed. The rules clearly state that a Spy will be assumed to support a mission if they don't say anything in 24 hours. If Blitzy was a Spy, then it means there must have been another Spy in the same proposal, which must be Slayer (not Kirsche, because of my previous point, and not Proto because of 2.2). Also, I am now beginning to question the importance of Proposal 2.1. With EVERYBODY voting No, it's quite possible that the Spies figured out that the team selection is one that would have enough No votes for them to look suspicious if the proposal actually went through and got sabotaged. Anyways [spoiler=Possible spy pairings, looking purely at the sabotaged missions]If Kirsche was 2.2's Spy, then he must have left his partner behind in both of 3.1's proposals. The only possibility here is with Kay. 1. Kirsche+Kay Next, if Slayer sabotaged 2.2. Reinfleche wouldn't have knowingly sent two Spies in 2.2, and neither would Kirsche in 3.1. So neither of them are Slayer's partners. The only possibilities, then, involve Slayer sabotaging both the missions (oh snap, this is like Resistance II all over again, isn't it?): 2. Slayer+Kay 3. Slayer+Proto 4. Slayer+Blitzy If Reinfleche was the Spy, somebody else must have sabotaged 3.1. It's not Kirsche or Slayer, because Reinfleche wouldn't knowingly send two Spies in 2.1. It's not Blitzy, because he wasn't online to sabotage Mission 3.1. So that only leaves: 5. Reinfleche+Proto All of that comes from almost pure objective data. The ONLY "subjective" assumption I made is that a Spy wouldn't propose two Spies into a mission and support it. With regards to narrowing the list down, each player will have their own subjective opinions. From my point of view, Kirsche+Kay seems to make the most sense, and it would also explain why Kay suddenly voted Yes to 2.2. However, I noticed that Kirsche was the first person to declare Kay as being 100% scum and seems to be the only one that is completely sure of it, which wouldn't make sense if her partner was Kirsche. On the other hand, her partner could have been Slayer, but that doesn't explain why both Kay and Slayer voted No for 2.1. The last option for me to consider is Slayer+Blitzy, which is VERY unlikely, not only because they kept arguing pointlessly at each other, but also because Blitzy wouldn't have voted No for 2.2. I think all six of us should post our own subjective views on those five possibilities. And if there's any other possible Spy pairing that I missed, please point it out as soon as possible, even if you find that possibility unlikely. We cannot afford to lose even more one time. I suggest a mission of rein, proto, and blitz. With Kay+Kirsche being the most likely possibility to me, and Slayer+Kay being second, I think this looks really good. I want to hear everyone else's thoughts first though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What do you mean when you say subjective views? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What do you mean when you say subjective views? Your own opinion on those spy possibilities, not based on objective data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 [spoiler=Possible spy pairings, looking purely at the sabotaged missions]If Kirsche was 2.2's Spy, then he must have left his partner behind in both of 3.1's proposals. The only possibility here is with Kay. 1. Kirsche+Kay Next, if Slayer sabotaged 2.2. Reinfleche wouldn't have knowingly sent two Spies in 2.2, and neither would Kirsche in 3.1. So neither of them are Slayer's partners. The only possibilities, then, involve Slayer sabotaging both the missions (oh snap, this is like Resistance II all over again, isn't it?): 2. Slayer+Kay 3. Slayer+Proto 4. Slayer+Blitzy If Reinfleche was the Spy, somebody else must have sabotaged 3.1. It's not Kirsche or Slayer, because Reinfleche wouldn't knowingly send two Spies in 2.1. It's not Blitzy, because he wasn't online to sabotage Mission 3.1. So that only leaves: 5. Reinfleche+Proto First of all, i don't find the slayer pairings true because its me and i know i'm resistance. Whether you people believe that or not is your choice. The most likely for me right now would be the Kirsche+Kay. A first i thought it'd be Rein+Kay, however, recent data shows that rein + kay is impossible. I know i'm not a spy, therefore, kirsche is the only possible person that could have sabotaged mission 3.1. I'm also assuming no spy would risk a 2 spied mission, unless the spies have somehow managed to coordinate themselves or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Honestly, I thought Slayer + Proto made the most sense. I'm kinda rethinking this now based on his analysis being pretty useful, especially the part about Blitzy, but it still looks pretty likely to me, because he just needs to make sure one of him/Slayer is on this mission. He doesn't even have to try to mislead anybody much, because I've messed up and look so suspicious. I'm considering other possibilities for who the spies are, but I definitely don't want to send those two. Rein and Blitzy are in unless anyone has serious objections. From my point of view, I'm clear, but I can't put myself on the mission, since no one else trusts me, and we can't afford to waste proposals. ATM Kevin is who I would pick for the third player, does anyone object to telling me how they would vote for Rein/Blitz/Kevin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just noticed that I messed up writing that post. Swap Rein and Kevin. 1. Kirsche+Kay I know I'm Resistance, so this isn't possible FMPOV. I don't have much of a defense as far as justifying the improbability of it to you guys. 2. Slayer+Kay Again, I know my role. 3. Slayer+Proto This team makes the most sense to me, but I'm mostly just guessing. I think there's a high probability that at least one failed mission had two spies on it, and I know Slayer would err on the side of cooperating based on Resistance II. 4. Slayer+Blitzy Might explain their disagreement early on, especially considering that they pretty much dropped that after the point had been made. Still, Blitzy looks extremely townish otherwise. 5. Reinfleche+Proto This is looking like the second most likely pair. I can't think of anything against it or in favor of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would agree to rein/blitz/me, and even prefer that to rein/proto/blitz, if only for just having myself in it. But i will accept proto/blitz/rein if they insist on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 ATM Kevin is who I would pick for the third player, does anyone object to telling me how they would vote for Rein/Blitz/Kevin? I would oppose greatly to that. The only team i'll accept is one of Rein, proto, blitz. If it has me in it instead of one of those individuals i wouldn't oppose either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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