Official SSB4 Newcomer Bets Thread

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Okay, so I'll re-add Shulk, re-switch him with Pac-Man, I'm having doubts about that little yellow guy. So now my current, updated bets are:

Chrom

Lyn (de-confirmed)

Pac-Man Shulk

Takamaru

Palutena

Toon Zelda/Tetra Little Mac (confirmed)

King K. Rool

(6th Gen Pokemon) (confirmed)

Isaac

[Randoman]

Alright then.

Also, I guess this means I've got one more free change since I added Shulk and he was made a free addition. I'll save that change for now, though.

I should mention that if you suddenly feel better about Pac-Man's chances before E3, you're free to add him again (no need to remove Shulk). Shulk, Pac-Man, and Namco characters have had quite a lot of hints pop up for/against them, so I feel like adding/removing them whenever you feel like it before the Smash E3 presentation isn't too unreasonable. However, you can only add/remove them, and not switch out (unless you add Shulk/remove a Namco character or vice versa) since I don't want people essentially making free switches that don't involve Shulk/Namco characters.

[BANRYU]

Hahaha.... depends on what you interpret as 'hints'. To me, the whole Special Flag dealio only hints at Pacman being an 8-bit summon from the flag itself.

Ahhh, but I know opinions are bound to differ... Only time will tell.

Edited June 9, 2014 by BANRYU

[Randoman]

So, with Mii and Palutena confirmed to be playable in SSB4 at E3, it's time to update the scores:

Randoman: 130
Silver Pegasus: 90
Vashiane: 105
shinpichu: 90
Acacia Sgt: 60
Konnor97: 92
Fire Emblem Fan: 97
Knight: 100
Ruarik: 115
Green Poet: 92
Greatgramcracker: 82
ShinRPGamer: 112
Shin: 85
Dark Legend Vampire: 90
Harmonie: 105
Owain Dark: 115
Devilsbane: 105
Zeem: 85
AllAroundGamer9: 60
Kamina: 60
JasonMendez: 75
King Marth 64: 60
Ein: 60
Alfred Kamon: 82
Rehab: 75
TharjaAssault: 90
Polydeuces: 60
BANRYU: 75

[Fire Emblem Fan]

So Pac-Man was just announced...wow I am such an idiot.

[Randoman]

Well, Pac-Man has been confirmed:

The scores are now as follows:

Randoman: 125
Silver Pegasus: 85
Vashiane: 125
shinpichu: 85
Acacia Sgt: 55
Konnor97: 112
Fire Emblem Fan: 92
Knight: 95
Ruarik: 110
Green Poet: 87
Greatgramcracker: 77
ShinRPGamer: 107
Shin: 80
Dark Legend Vampire: 85
Palutena: 125
Owain Dark: 135
Devilsbane: 125
Zeem: 80
AllAroundGamer9: 55
Kamina: 55
JasonMendez: 70
King Marth 64: 80
Ein: 55
Alfred Kamon: 77
Rehab: 70
TharjaAssault: 110
Polydeuces: 80
BANRYU: 70

So as of now, Owain Dark is the winner and Vashiane, Palutena, Devilsbane, and I are tied for 2nd. Of course, once the whole roster is revealed, there'll be the penalizing for every wrong guess made (-10), so it'll be interesting to see how things will change from there.

Also, be sure to edit any switches/removals/additions into your original post. I calculate the scores looking at your first post rather than the later posts with updated lists, so you really want to make sure you edit your first post so I can calculate the scores properly and so your changes will actually be accounted for in your score.

On a side note, what should we do regarding Shulk and keeping him free as an addition, even after the E3 presentation? X was actually confirmed to be a Xenoblade sequel so it boosts Shulk's chances and some people may want to add him.

Edited June 11, 2014 by Randoman

[Fire Emblem Fan]

All right, I just edited my original post, I hadn't done that yet. I'd love to claim third place and take the points for predicting Pac-Man, but that would be unfair and dishonest of me. On June 7th I had switched out Pac-Man for Shulk with that free switch, I just posted an updated list instead of editing my original one (which I just edited so it's correct). My score shouldn't be 117.

[Randoman]

Thanks for the honesty Fire Emblem Fan.

I've fixed up your score, accordingly.

Also, if you guys notice any participants who haven't updated their original post with their changes but made posts later in the thread wanting to change it (and it's in complaince with the rules), be sure to notify me.

[Konnor97]

I just noticed I completely forgot to add Palutena to my original list after I posted my addition back in April. Just like Fire Emblem Fan, I only posted an updated list instead of editing the original. So I think I should have 127 (changing 92 to 107 (instead of -10 from 102 into 92, +5 to 102 into 107), and then the 20 from Pac-Man). Correct me if I am wrong anywhere in this.

Edited June 11, 2014 by Konnor97

[Randoman]

Yep, I got 127 from the calculation as well.

So here are the updated scores now:

Randoman: 125
Silver Pegasus: 85
Vashiane: 125
shinpichu: 85
Acacia Sgt: 55
Konnor97: 127
Fire Emblem Fan: 92
Knight: 95
Ruarik: 110
Green Poet: 87
Greatgramcracker: 77
ShinRPGamer: 107
Shin: 80
Dark Legend Vampire: 85
Palutena: 125
Owain Dark: 135
Devilsbane: 125
Zeem: 80
AllAroundGamer9: 55
Kamina: 55
JasonMendez: 70
King Marth 64: 80
Ein: 55
Alfred Kamon: 77
Rehab: 70
TharjaAssault: 110
Polydeuces: 80
BANRYU: 70

So as of now, Owain Dark is the winner, Konnor97 is 2nd, and Vashiane, Palutena, Devilsbane, and I are tied for 3rd.

[BANRYU]

Soooo the Miis happened

and then I just found out about Pacman

...I'm never predicting anything ever again.

That's it I'm done I'm going home GG everybody goodnight

///

Okay but in all seriousness, Pacman actually does look pretty awesome, I'm happy for all of y'all that were hoping for/predicting him.

As for me, I'm gonna need to take a while to warm up to him while I'm busy being butthurt because I was wrong, lol

If anything, though... This makes me think that Ridley is actually more likely than ever. If Pacman was chosen as a character despite Sakurai spouting this nonsense, then it means that there's no reason to assume Ridley is DEFINITELY going to be a boss as Sakurai led us to believe... And if he's putting Pacman in, then to me that means that, much like with Sonic, Sakurai's probably trying to please the crowd a bit with that inclusion. It seems super unlikely (as well as unsmart) to me that Sakurai would go out of his way to please everyone but the Ridley fans... So I'm starting to feel better about adhering to the possibility of my main man space dragon. I feel pretty good about all four of my remaining guesses, in fact.

EDIT: Hey Rando, is there anything in the rules lately/ever that might let me add another character to my prediction list, like instead of removing Shulk, replace him with someone? IDK but thanks in advance either way.

Edited June 13, 2014 by BANRYU

[Randoman]

Well, since there's a SSB4 newcomer reveal coming up on the 14th, I just want to remind people that you might want to make any changes now before the newcomer reveal occurs.

I'm personally going to switch out Takamaru for Chorus Men (Shulk was made a free addition before E3 2014 so I technically have one last guess). Seeing how Rhythm Heaven enemies have been confirmed in Smash Run, it's not like the Gematsu rumour is the sole thing hinting at the inclusion of the Chorus Men. Yeah, an enemy from a game series in Smash Run doesn't particularly guarantee a playable character from that series in Smash Bros., (like the Pooka from Dig Dug, though that's technically tied in with Namco and Pac-Man's moveset references Namco series a lot) but I'd say it's a solid enough indicator.

Sorry Takamaru. I know I've supported you ever since SSB4 was announced at E3 2011 and Sakurai said he was planning to revive retro characters. You were the coolest retro character and I supported you and expected you in like crazy. But it seems like the jig is up, with Gematsu being right so far and there likely not being another "Rosalina", in terms of there being a newcomer that Gematsu didn't leak.

EDIT: Hey Rando, is there anything in the rules lately/ever that might let me add another character to my prediction list, like instead of removing Shulk, replace him with someone? IDK but thanks in advance either way.

Well, I suppose I can let you switch out Shulk with another character due to no one commenting on whether I should let Shulk be free to add/switch after E3 2014 (since evidence supporting Shulk's inclusion/exclusion has been wishy washy in general, though now it's leaning towards his inclusion). Though given Xenoblade's producer retweeting the SSB4 newcomer announcement, that'll likely be detrimental. Sorry, but that's all that I can think of in terms of letting you get a free switch in while keeping things fair for everyone.

I said I'd only allow more free guess changes from gaming updates that relate to others' guesses (and the guess change has to pertain to those updates like making Shulk free to add/switch in after X's title was changed to Xenoblade Chronicles X) and it'd be really unfair to everyone if I changed that rule this far into the betting game.

Out of curiousity, what's the guess change you're wanting to make? Based on who it is, I could allow it to be free if there's recent gaming news that implies the characters' inclusion/exclusion.

[Konnor97]

Darn, I wish I took advantage of that free add/switch for Shulk or a Namco character before E3. With all of the stuff that's hinting towards Shulk, I feel like I wasted an opportunity, which I technically did. Well, at least I have Pac-Man.

Edited July 12, 2014 by Konnor97

[King Marth 64]

I was just think that I'm might going to add Impa (as the younger and Sheikah version from Ocarina of Time, Skyward Sword, and Hyrule Warriors) from The Legend of Zelda series as my guess in the list for Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS / Wii U since she appeared as playable character in Hyrule Warriors and did make a lot of recurring appearances in the series also.

Edited July 14, 2014 by King Marth 64

[Knight]

I wish to use my last, non-free switch to change Ghirahim to Shulk

My current list

Takamaru

Lucina

(6th Gen Pokemon) 6th Gen trainer (deconfirmed)

Waluigi (deconfirmed)

Megaman (confirmed)

Ridley (?)

Isaac

Magnus Palutena (confirmed)

Ghirahim Shulk

[Inactive Account404]

So Lucina is going to be in SSB4 after all (looks like her moveset is exactly like Marth's though)...wish I hadn't changed my bets.* It also looks like Chrom could be an assist trophy (or part of Robin's final smash).

And Robin is going to be in as well! I'm looking forward to playing as him/her when SSB4 comes out.

*edit*: But I guess Lucina doesn't count as a newcomer since she is basically an alternate costume for Marth?

Edited July 14, 2014 by Silver Pegasus

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Lucina is a newcomer, when you click her little picture thing on the Smash site and it brings up her page, it says "Newcomer."

[BANRYU]

Out of curiousity, what's the guess change you're wanting to make? Based on who it is, I could allow it to be free if there's recent gaming news that implies the characters' inclusion/exclusion.

TBH I don't even remember anymore lol. In light of everything recently, I think it's safe to say that we can call my request retracted. =w=

Right about my suspicions for Lucina, wooo.... ;u;

So um

I'm gonna call it even that I accurately (if unofficially) called Lucina but get points subtracted for the combination of saying Chrom / predicting no Robin lolol. But hey, at least people who said Robin OR Lucina will both be getting points, right? (I think it's safe to say that not many people expected 2 Awakening characters to get in, eh?)

Edited July 15, 2014 by BANRYU

[Randoman]

...I'm really reluctant to be on SF with how rabid and vicious things have been after the Lucina and Robin reveal, but I suppose I have my duty to run this thread and update it.

As we all know, Lucina and Robin were revealed yesterday. Also, today's Miiverse update concluded that Lucina is indeed her own character with her own slot and not a costume for Marth.

The scores are now as follows:

Randoman: 115
Silver Pegasus: 75
Vashiane: 115
shinpichu: 75
Acacia Sgt: 45
Konnor97: 117
Fire Emblem Fan: 82
Knight: 100
Ruarik: 115
Green Poet: 92
Greatgramcracker: 67
ShinRPGamer: 97
Shin: 70
Dark Legend Vampire: 90
Palutena: 115
Owain Dark: 125
Devilsbane: 115
Zeem: 70
AllAroundGamer9: 45
Kamina: 45
JasonMendez: 60
King Marth 64: 70
Ein: 60
Alfred Kamon: 82
Rehab: 60
TharjaAssault: 100
Candeloro : 70
BANRYU: 60

Current Winner: Owain

I was just think that I'm might going to add Impa (as the younger and Sheikah version from Ocarina of Time, Skyward Sword, and Hyrule Warriors) from The Legend of Zelda series as my guess in the list for Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS / Wii U since she appeared as playable character in Hyrule Warriors and did make a lot of recurring appearances in the series also.

So are you going to switch to Impa? You only have one guess change left, and I can carry through with your Impa addition since you're not going way overboard with your guess change limit.

...come to think of it, I should implement some sort of penalty if you go overboard with your guess changes again. Practically everyone else has been abiding with the game's guess changing rules, and it's not fair to them that I'm so lenient on you when you constantly break the "two guess changes only" rule, even when I don't carry through with your flood of guess changes.

[Randoman]

With Shulk being officially confirmed as a playable character, it's time to update the scores.

Randoman: 125

Silver Pegasus: 70

Vashiane: 110

shinpichu: 70

Acacia Sgt: 40

Konnor97: 112

Fire Emblem Fan: 92

Knight: 95

Ruarik: 125

Green Poet: 102

Greatgramcracker: 62

ShinRPGamer: 92

Shin: 65

Dark Legend Vampire: 85

Doofina: 125

Owain Dark: 120

Devilsbane: 125

Zeem: 65

AllAroundGamer9: 40

Kamina: 55

JasonMendez: 55

King Marth 64: 65

Ein: 55

Alfred Kamon: 77

Rehab: 55

TharjaAssault: 95

Candeloro : 65

BANRYU: 55

Current Winners: Ruarik, Doofina, Devilsbane, Randoman

Also, due to the Super Smash Bros. for 3DS being released in less than a month in Japan (and us being able to learn the full rosters from it), all the leaks that have been happening lately, and the fact that the leaked Shulk artwork matches with the official Shulk artwork 100%, all bet changes are completely closed off now. People using bet changes to escape point penalties this close to the end (especially with newcomers already being revealed unofficially and being very likely right about them) is something I don't want happening.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Well, I'm tied for 10th place (out of 28) as of right now. I'd say I did pretty good.

[Randoman]

Final Results Everyone!!

So Bowser. Jr, Duck Hunt Dog, and Dark Pit have been confirmed to be the final newcomers for SSB4. And with the Japanese players confirming that there are no more characters (since they got a notice/accomplishment saying that all characters have been unlocked and the true All Star Mode is available), we very likely have full knowledge the final roster. Also, we're not counting DLC or 3DS-Wii U link up characters (as in, characters that are only unlocked by linking up the 3DS and Wii U versions), since we're keeping it to the roster that's available through normal gameplay only.

So this list consists of the 3 newcomers taken into account without the penalties for excess newcomers calculated (the brackets include the amount of characters that the person gets penalized for in terms of guessing them and them not being playable. 3rd party character penalties are doubled and essentially count as getting two 1st/2nd party characters wrong, due to the high risk/high reward rule of guessing 3rd parties):

Randoman: 110 (-2)

Silver Pegasus: 70 (-2)

Vashiane: 95 (-5)

shinpichu: 55 (-2)

Acacia Sgt: 25 (-8)

Konnor97: 97 (-5)

Fire Emblem Fan: 77 (-5)

Knight: 80 (-6)

Ruarik: 125 (-5)

Green Poet: 87 (-6)

Greatgramcracker: 47 (-5)

ShinRPGamer: 92 (-9)

Shin: 50

Dark Legend Vampire: 70

Doofina: 125 (-5)

Owain Dark: 105 (-6)

Devilsbane: 110 (-4)

Zeem: 65 (-2)

AllAroundGamer9: 25

Shulk: 40 (-1)

JasonMendez: 55 (-5)

King Marth 64: 65 (-2)

Ein: 40 (-2)

Alfred Kamon: 62 (-4)

Rehab: 40 (-4)

TharjaAssault: 80 (-2)

Burakkuhoku : 65 (-3)

BANRYU: 40 (-5)

And with all newcomers taken into account and all inaccurately guessed character penalties accounted for, the final scores are as follows:

Randoman: 90

Silver Pegasus: 50

Vashiane: 45

shinpichu: 35

Acacia Sgt: -55

Konnor97: 47

Fire Emblem Fan: 27

Knight: 20

Ruarik: 75

Green Poet: 27

Greatgramcracker: -3

ShinRPGamer: 2

Shin: -50

Dark Legend Vampire: -50

Doofina: 75

Owain Dark: 45

Devilsbane: 70

Zeem: 45

AllAroundGamer9: -5

Shulk: 30

JasonMendez: 5

King Marth 64: 45

Ein: 20

Alfred Kamon: 22

Rehab: 0

TharjaAssault: 60

Burakkuhoku : 35

BANRYU: -10

The final standings are as follows:

1. Randoman: 90

2/3. Ruarik: 75

2/3. Doofina: 75

4. Devilsbane: 70

5. TharjaAssault: 60

6. Silver Pegasus: 50

7. Konnor97: 47

8/9/10/11. Vashiane: 45

8/9/10/11. Owain Dark: 45

8/9/10/11. Zeem: 45

8/9/10/11. King Marth 64: 45

12/13. shinpichu: 35

12/13. Burakkuhoku : 35

14. Shulk: 30

15/16. Fire Emblem Fan: 27

15/16. Green Poet: 27

17. Alfred Kamon: 22

18/19. Knight: 20

18/19. Ein: 20

20. JasonMendez: 5

21. ShinRPGamer: 2

22. Greatgramcracker: -3

23. AllAroundGamer9: -5

24. Rehab: 0

25. BANRYU: -10

26/27. Shin: -50

27/27. Dark Legend Vampire: -50

28. Acacia Sgt: -55

If you notice any mistakes/miscalcuations, please notify me.

I'll admit, I'm glad I won the SSB4 newcomer betting game, but at the same time, I feel bad for essentially making a game that I won, and probably should've hosted it and not participate myself so I wouldn't be hogging the glory of a game I invented (gah, why can't I be happy for being 1st place like most normal people would be?).

Well, since it'd be a really horrible and selfish move to congratulate myself for taking 1st place, I'll instead take this moment to congratulate Ruarik and Doofina for their success at the SSB4 newcomer betting game!!! We 3 should really work together to predict the roster for the next Smash Bros. game when it comes around.

And I thank all of you who participated!! I didn't expect to have so many people join in and make this such a lively and huge event. It meant a lot to me to have so many people join my betting game and participate in an event as big and long as waiting to see all the newcomers of SSB4.

Edited September 13, 2014 by Randoman

[Knight]

I'm in the positive!

[Fire Emblem Fan]

My goodness I did awful...