Official SSB4 Newcomer Bets Thread

[Konnor97]

I agree with Ryu, the Chorus Men are way too random to be characters, even more so than Wii Fit Trainer IMO. They have no hints at all, and it just seems silly.

[BANRYU]

No hints =/= no inclusion, that's an invalid point. It's not like there were any hints toward Greninja, but look how that turned out. No news can definitely mean possibilities as far as viable candidates like Palutena and Isaac go, but characters like Ridley who were specifically mentioned in a different role have a significantly lower chance.

However, that said, I definitely think the Chorus Men thing would be reaching big time. Randoman, this might be rather harsh, but I feel like there should be no benefit to guessing Chorus Men if they ARE allowed to be predicted. Incorrectly guessing them would still count against you, but correctly guessing them would yield no points because it DID most likely come from a leak. I don't know if that would be seen as consistent with regards to the fairness of this thread, but... uh... yeah, I dunno. That's my suggestion.

[Konnor97]

No hints =/= no inclusion, that's an invalid point. It's not like there were any hints toward Greninja, but look how that turned out. No news can definitely mean possibilities as far as viable candidates like Palutena and Isaac go, but characters like Ridley who were specifically mentioned in a different role have a significantly lower chance.

Right. Heck, we had no hints for like any of the newcomers IIRC. So yeah, I retract that last statement. In my opinion I still find them a bit too random to be characters.

[BANRYU]

Yeah I'll agree with you on that. I know it was prominently advertised and whatnot, but it's a bit of a stretch to me to call Rhythm Heaven-- or any of nintendo's other music games-- a significant part of Nintendo's history.

[Randoman]

Randoman, this might be rather harsh, but I feel like there should be no benefit to guessing Chorus Men if they ARE allowed to be predicted. Incorrectly guessing them would still count against you, but correctly guessing them would yield no points because it DID most likely come from a leak. I don't know if that would be seen as consistent with regards to the fairness of this thread, but... uh... yeah, I dunno. That's my suggestion.

Interesting suggestion, though as you said it's not really consistant with the rest of the rules.

So what do the rest of you think we should do regarding the Chorus Men rumour? Do we just allow them as a regular guess despite them only being hinted at through rumours, or do we implement some sort of special rule for them, since at least the other rumoured characters have been requested/expected to be in SSB4?

[BANRYU]

Yeah I dunno I was kinda just suggesting something random lol.

I guess my reasoning was that at least, if someone legitimately DOES think that a Rhythm Heaven character has a chance and is correct, at least they won't be penalized for it, so they get the satisfaction of being right or whatever (we're assuming that a correct individual would be predicting this him/herself without regard to the rumors).

[Randoman]

Yeah I dunno I was kinda just suggesting something random lol.

I guess my reasoning was that at least, if someone legitimately DOES think that a Rhythm Heaven character has a chance and is correct, at least they won't be penalized for it, so they get the satisfaction of being right or whatever (we're assuming that a correct individual would be predicting this him/herself without regard to the rumors).

The bolded part is the main problem. I doubt anyone would be guessing Chorus Men now without the rumour being the main factor and reason behind that guess.

Though I'm thinking of modifying your suggestion a bit. Maybe giving a correct Chorus Men guess +1 only would be the way to do it? That way, we're not banning people from guessing them. Yet because they're very likely guessing it because of the rumour, they only get a very small reward. And by making Chorus Men only worth +1, people will be less likely inclined to switch their guess to them and will instead use their switch for something that'll yield a lot more points.

[BANRYU]

It's your thread, man. Whatever you think is the most fair and balanced solution, eh? I don't have a problem with that.

EDIT @ below: Heh, sounds good to me.

Edited April 17, 2014 by BANRYU

[Randoman]

Well, you're right about it being my thread. But at the same time, I want to implement rules in a way that'll let others have input on them and so the other participants will think it's fair. I mean, it's no fun if a bull headed tyrant makes all the rules with no say or input from everyone else, right?

Well, I guess I'll see what other people say about the "+1 for Chorus Men" idea, before I implement that rule.

[Konnor97]

Well, you're right about it being my thread. But at the same time, I want to implement rules in a way that'll let others have input on them and so the other participants will think it's fair. I mean, it's no fun if a bull headed tyrant makes all the rules with no say or input from everyone else, right?

Well, I guess I'll see what other people say about the "+1 for Chorus Men" idea, before I implement that rule.

I like the +1 rule. If they really want to switch their pick for that possible +1 on the basis of a rumor (or not, but eh), then they can go ahead and do it.

[Randoman]

I like the +1 rule. If they really want to switch their pick for that possible +1 on the basis of a rumor (or not, but eh), then they can go ahead and do it.

I guess we're sticking with the +1 for Chorus Men rule, then.

Though to make things fair for Harmonie, I think we should let her choose whether she wants to keep her Chorus Men swap/addition or undo it so she won't use up one of her non-free additions/switches/removals. It's only fair, since this rule affected her the most of all the participants.

[BANRYU]

In light of the news regarding Chrom's voice actor, I'm suddenly terrified that I made the wrong decision saying Chrom instead of Lucina lol.

(Even though it's much more likely that they just got a different VA...)

[HK Motendra]

In light of the news regarding Chrom's voice actor, I'm suddenly terrified that I made the wrong decision saying Chrom instead of Lucina lol.

(Even though it's much more likely that they just got a different VA...)

IIRC, Ike had a different VA for Brawl than in PoR/RD, right? With that in mind, I'd like to believe the same

[Anacybele]

Actually, Jason Adkins voiced Ike in all three games. Just saying, I never participated in this, since my bets would've been totally wrong aside from one or two. xP

I'd bet Chrom or Avatar over Lucina though.

[Knight]

Do I still have another switch?

[Randoman]

Just a heads up guys: I'm thinking of giving all participants a beneficial bonus they can choose to take advantage of (though it could potentially backfire, so it's not like it'll be too cheap). I'll probably be giving that bonus at the start of June since E3 will be coming up and newcomers are sure to be revealed (it's not more guesses, since I don't want inactive participants to fall too far behind the active participants).

I'm wanting to leave what the bonus is as a suprise, but at the same time, I should probably tell people what it is so I can get some people's input before I decide on it. I will say that it won't put participants who don't check on this thread often at too much of a disadvantage.

In light of the news regarding Chrom's voice actor, I'm suddenly terrified that I made the wrong decision saying Chrom instead of Lucina lol.

(Even though it's much more likely that they just got a different VA...)

Well, I'm not locking Chrom guesses since it could easily be because a different voice actor is being used, so people are still allowed to switch him out/in with their remaining switches. Plus, I'm quite sure Sakurai will stick with Chrom and not Lucina.

Do I still have another switch?

Yep. You've still got one non-free one left. Though if you switch out Shulk/a Bandai Namco character, it won't use up your switch since I made those two free after X's more recent trailers and Sakurai's article about Bandai Namco "not being entitled to a character" just because they're helping make the game, respectively.

[Knight]

Hmm, I think I'll wait until before E3.

[BANRYU]

Well, I'm not locking Chrom guesses since it could easily be because a different voice actor is being used, so people are still allowed to switch him out/in with their remaining switches. Plus, I'm quite sure Sakurai will stick with Chrom and not Lucina.

Oh yeah definitely. It probably means nothing.

[BANRYU]

Well, I suppose I'll go ahead and get in on this action because why not, I tend to have pretty good instincts when it comes to this stuff. I'm not actually expecting any / most / all of these folks to get in, so this is actually more characters who I want to get in and who I think have a plausible chance.

- Saki Amiyama (deconfirmed)

- Chrom from some game I forget which lol

- King K. Rool from DKC

- Isaac from Golden Sun

- Shulk from Xenoblade

- Ridley _{((formerly Takamaru))}

- Palutena _{((formerly Ray from Custom Robo))}

Switches/Adds/Removals Used: 2/2

**Additional free removal for Shulk**

It's too bad I couldn't get credit for the ones that I DID predict, like Little Mac and Megaman lol.

Okay officially I can't make any changes because I've used all my modifications.

But... Off the books, I am taking all of my eggs out of Chrom's basket and putting them in Lucina's. Call it fanboyism, call it a hunch, I'm honestly not sure which; but it doesn't feel right not to at least say something here so I can say I was right if I happen to be right.

So here's one for the records. I think it's gonna be Lucina. ~o~

[Randoman]

I'm actually thinking about removing the whole "Chorus Men is only +1" rule, since it's only one obscure character that was rumoured. Also, there's only two switches allowed, so if someone wants to use that switch for a character that obscure and out there over a solid guess or a highly anticipated/expected character, I feel like that's fair enough.

Okay officially I can't make any changes because I've used all my modifications.

But... Off the books, I am taking all of my eggs out of Chrom's basket and putting them in Lucina's. Call it fanboyism, call it a hunch, I'm honestly not sure which; but it doesn't feel right not to at least say something here so I can say I was right if I happen to be right.

So here's one for the records. I think it's gonna be Lucina. ~o~

Fair enough. Though with the accurate Gematsu rumours and Sakurai always sticking to the #1 most important lead character in regards to Fire Emblem, I'm still personally thinking it's much more likely to be Chrom than Lucina.

Well, no matter who it turns out to be (unless neither make it in), you win either way: Lucina, you're correct about your hunch but don't get the points. Chrom: you get the +10 points for that being your listed guess, but don't lose anything due to your inaccurate hunch.

[Randoman]

Thread Update: Seeing how E3 is only 5 days away and we're practically guaranteed to get new character reveals, I thought I'd ask if any of you guys have any bet changes you want to make before it's too late. Remember to edit your bet changes into your original post and cross out any former bets you had.

Anyways, I'm personally going to add Palutena and Shulk into my list, which'll use up all the changes I did have. Palutena has been hinted at quite a bit with Pit's Final Smash being changed to remove her and Palutena in person not showing up at all in SSB4 yet. Shulk I'm betting on since there's been no sign of Xenoblade references in SSB4 at all yet, so that may hint at him being playable. Sakurai's probably saving all the Xenoblade references in Smash Bros. until after Shulk is revealed.

Also, if there aren't any objections, I'll be removing that "+1 for Chorus Men" rule, since it's only one insanely obscure character that was rumoured and there's only two guess changes allowed. It's not like it'll be too advantageous to change your guess to Chorus Men, especially since it'll use up half of the changes you're allowed and with only two changes allowed, you'd probably want to change your guess to a more reliable/solid character guess anyways.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Randoman

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'd put Shulk back into my bet, but unfortunately I'm out of changes/switches, including free ones, so I'm stuck with what I got.

[Randoman]

I'd put Shulk back into my bet, but unfortunately I'm out of changes/switches, including free ones, so I'm stuck with what I got.

Well, now that you mention that, I forgot about this:

Just a heads up guys: I'm thinking of giving all participants a beneficial bonus they can choose to take advantage of (though it could potentially backfire, so it's not like it'll be too cheap). I'll probably be giving that bonus at the start of June since E3 will be coming up and newcomers are sure to be revealed (it's not more guesses, since I don't want inactive participants to fall too far behind the active participants).

Anyways, the bonus I was thinking of allowing people to take advantage of is being able to freely add or switch in Shulk or any Namco character in before the E3 presentation. I mean, the evidence regarding Shulk and Namco characters being in/not being in kind of switched back and forth, so I thought that Shulk and Namco characters should be allowed to be freely added or removed (though I'm not going to allow any cheap tricks using that).

So what do you guys think? Do you think letting people add Shulk or Namco characters in their betting lists freely before E3 2014 is fair enough?

Also, I was thinking of allowing a free "Character from a New IP" slot, in case there's a brand new Nintendo IP being made that'll come out 2014 or later and SSB4 will feature a playable character from it. I don't think anyone will take advantage of such a slot, but I at least want to offer up the option, so at least it's not like everyone participating will get penalized for not guessing such a new and recent character.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Well I'd like to be able to add Shulk again, so I'd say yes to that idea lol

[Randoman]

Well I'd like to be able to add Shulk again, so I'd say yes to that idea lol

Alright then. I guess I'll implement the "free Shulk/Namco character addition rule" right now since E3 only three days away and it'll be too late if we wait for more input from other participants. Also, if anyone added Shulk or a Namco character and had it use up one of their changes, you've got one extra free change now.

Also, I'll be allowing the free "Character from a New IP" slot as of now, and I'll make it worth a full +10 points, seeing how Sakurai likely won't be adding that new of a character in SSB4 (especially from a new IP). Keep in mind, the "Character from a New IP" slot will only count if it's an IP that originated in 2014 or onward, and is not a branch of an existing series (like how Wario and Yoshi are considered separate from the Mario series despite being in the same universe).