Official SSB4 Newcomer Bets Thread

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Yeah switching Pokemon now that Gen 6 is here fully would be nice.

[King Marth 64]

Ok, I am going put add new newcomer bets that I'm going to add it into it:

Dillion from Dillion's Rolling Western and the Last Ranger, Sakura from Sakura Sword: Art of Sword, and Tempo from HarmoKnight.

I kinda wanted to have 3rd Party Newcomer: Quote from Cave Story also.

[Randoman]

Alright then. I guess we're allowing the free 6th Gen Placeholder switch/removal. I personally don't want to do that switch yet, since I want to hold out and see what's the best character to switch to later on down the line (eg: if they reveal a Startropics stage a few months from now, I'll use the 6th Gen switch then for Mike Jones since the stage reveal will make him more likely).

I wouldn't consider a Mega Mewtwo final smash transfomation to be a newcomer, since by that logic a Mega Lucario final smash would be considered a newcomer and anyone who wouldn't guess him would be penalized. The only way Mega Mewtwo will be considered a newcomer is if he is a Sheik/Zero Suit Samus type transformation or his own character slot separate from/without Mewtwo in the roster.

Sorry King Marth 64, only two switches/additions/removals were allowed in total (barring the free ones that would be offered from gaming news being updated like X not being directly Xenoblade related or 6th Gen not being fully revealed during the start of this betting game). Though I am wanting to raise the switch/addition/removal limit, I want to get people's input on how much we should raise it by (I'm personally thinking of raising it from two to five, so anyone that used all their switches/additions/removals would get an additional three).

Also King Marth 64, regarding your Quote addition, I thought I should remind you that 3rd party guesses are higher risk higher reward (+/- 20 instead of the usual +/- 10). Anyways, since we're potentially going to raise the switch/addition/removal limit, I'm not going to apply the additions you listed yet since you posted four additions, only two are allowed currently (aside from removing/switching Shulk and the 6th Gen slot if you have them on your current list), and I don't know which of your four guesses you want most prioritized and least prioritized (Eg: keep the Dillon and Tempo guesses and cancel the Quote and Sakura guesses).

[Book Bro]

Cool, then I'll take out Mega Mewtwo from my list since now that we know how Megas work I believe it'll just be Mewtwo's final smash. Guess I'll add Tingle instead since Ghirahim seems unlikely now and I haven't got another Pokémon guess. Here's my list with the two switches (and some regrettable guesses I can't switch out >.>):

Takamaru

K Rool

Newtwo Tingle

Ghirahim

Tharja

Palutena

Ridley

Megaman

Pac Man

KK Slider Little Mac

Lucina

edit: If Mewtwo himself is considered a newcomer and not a veteran then I'll scrap Tingle for now and guess Mewtwo.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Owain Dark

[Konnor97]

Ah, well, I'll just keep my place holder guess of a 6th gen 'mon for right now. The only thing I can think of for a switch is someone from SMT to have some hype or whatever for SMT x FE, but that's pretty far fetch'd.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Konnor97

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Okay, so my current bets are:

Chrom

Lyn

Shulk Pac-Man

Takamaru

Palutena

Toon Zelda/Tetra Little Mac

King K. Rool

(6th Gen Pokemon)

Isaac

I've used the free Shulk switch, then for the other two I just took out the 2nd Gen. Pokemon Trainer and switched T.Zelda/Tetra for Little Mac. So if I just read all the recent posts right, I can switch the 6th Gen. Pokemon if I want?

[Randoman]

So, with Little Mac's inclusion, it's time to update the scores:

Randoman: 115
Silver Pegasus: 90
Vashiane: 120
shinpichu: 90
Acacia Sgt: 75
Konnor97: 100
Fire Emblem Fan: 90
Knight: 100
Ruarik: 115
Green Poet: 100
Greatgramcracker: 75
ShinRPGamer: 90
Shin: 100
Dark Legend Vampire: 90
Athena: 90
Owain Dark: 115
Devilsbane: 90
Zeem: 100
AllAroundGamer9: 75
Kamina: 75
JasonMendez: 75
King Marth 64: 75
Ein: 75
Alfred Kamon: 90
Rehab: 90
TharjaAssault: 90

Current Winner: Vashiane

So if I just read all the recent posts right, I can switch the 6th Gen. Pokemon if I want?

Yep. The 6th Gen Pokemon slot is a free switch/removal. You can save the switch/removal if you want, and it may be tactically advantageous for you to do so by waiting for by waiting for more Nintendo Directs/news to pop up and see if any character looks more likely to be in SSB4 from the Directs/news.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'm soooo glad I switched Toon Zelda/Tetra to Little Mac. And m'kay, I think I'll save it for now :3

[King Marth 64]

I think I'm adding Mallo from Pushmo and Crashmo & Issac from Golden Sun (since Little Mac became a fighter instead of returing as an Assist Trophy) to the list.

And I still keeping Sakura Samurai to the list since his game "Sakura Samurai: Art of Sword" is a Nintendo game.

Edited March 13, 2014 by King Marth 64

[MRDRHAWK]

Submitting a list:

Bowser Jr.

Chrom

Takamaru

Isaac

Pac-Man (NAMCO LOGIC, TOTALLY FOOL-PROOF)

[Randoman]

Noted Poly, though I should tell you that you're starting at 75 instead of 100 since a -5 penalty is incurred for every newcomer revealed. I know it's kind of unfair, but if I didn't do that, we could easily have people winning by joining last moment when everyone will likely have <100 scores, submitting one character on their list, and winning (or tying with the winner) cheaply with a score of 95.

I think I'm adding Mallo from Pushmo and Chrashmo & Issac from Golden Sun (since Little Mac became a fighter instead of returing as an Assist Trophy) to the list.

And I still keeping Sakura Samurai to the list since his game "Sakura Samurai: Art of Sword" is a Nintendo game.

Sorry, but that's going over the limit since only two switches/additions/removals are allowed, and none of those you put are allowed free switches (like removing 6th Gen Pokemon since 6th Gen didn't have a Lucario/Zoroark equivalent). You're going to have to pick only one of those additions since you already used one of your switches/additions/removals a while back.

On that note, does anyone want the two limit rule removed or altered in any way? I was thinking of a system where after you used two switches/additions/removals, every switch/addition/removal after that will incur a -5 penalty. Or maybe we should up the switch/addition/removal limit from 2 to 5.

[King Marth 64]

Alright, I strike Gen. V or VI and any Mario characters in the previous post on the list like you said. And also I think I'll might add Captain Rainbow to the list to save room from the others bets like you said its over one and I remove two from the list and keep Sakurai Samurai in order in the list.

Edited March 13, 2014 by King Marth 64

[Randoman]

Alright, King Marth 64. So this is your old list after it's been changed to conform to the rules:

Pac-Man

Chrom

Gen 6 Pokemon

And you're using one switch/addition/removal for the following character:

Sakura Samurai

So from what I'm getting your current list consists of those 4 characters and you've still got one more switch (not counting the free switches like Gen 6 Pokemon removal and removing Shulk who you don't have on your list)

[King Marth 64]

Alright, I removed Any New Legend of Zelda character from the list that was from the same post that I removed Any Gen V or Gen VI Pokemon and Any New Mario Characters earlier and I think I'll switch that to Shulk to the List (I kinda completely forgotten about him) and I'll might add Fossil Fighter Hero and Takamura as an addition to the list.

EDIT: Sorry, I kinda forgot I already have added Captain Rainbow to the List from my previous post already.

Edited March 20, 2014 by King Marth 64

[Randoman]

So you're using your Gen 6 slot switch King Marth 64? Even with that taken into account, you're still only allowed 1 of those characters you listed, since you're only allowed 2 switches/additions/removals plus one for the Gen 6 slot (so 3 in total, but one of them have to be a removal/switch because one of them is for the Gen 6 Pokemon slot). So you'll have to pick between 1 of the 3 you listed (Shulk, Fossil Fighter Hero, or Takamaru), since you've already added Sakura Samurai and Captain Rainbow.

[BANRYU]

Well, I suppose I'll go ahead and get in on this action because why not, I tend to have pretty good instincts when it comes to this stuff. I'm not actually expecting any / most / all of these folks to get in, so this is actually more characters who I want to get in and who I think have a plausible chance.

- Palutena: CONFIRMED! ;D

- Ridley

- King K. Rool

- Isaac (Golden Sun)

- Shulk from Xenoblade

- Chrom (deconfirmed)

- Saki Amiyama (deconfirmed)

Switches/Adds/Removals Used: 2/2

- Ray 01 -> Palutena

- Takamaru -> Ridley

**Additional free removal for Shulk**

Off-the-books counter: (my private predictions, not accounted for in the scoring for this thread)

- Megaman: confirmed c:

- Little Mac: confirmed v:

- Lucina: confirmed! :D

- Balloon Fighter: deconfirmed by Villager's Up-special

Edited July 16, 2014 by BANRYU

[Randoman]

Well, you can technically keep Chrom and Lucina as well as Saki and Isa, but you can't keep a Chrom/Lucina slot since for this game we want to keep the guesses as specific and direct as possible. I did allow leeway for things like the Villager (I gave the +10 points to people that guessed Animal Crosser even though he was technically called Villager) and Rosalina (it was technically a Rosalina & Luma tagteam but since it's hard to guess tagteams as characters, I gave the full +10 points just for guessing Rosalina). I only allowed the "Gen 6 Pokemon slot" because at the time, very few Gen 6 Pokemon were shown, and it'd be really hard to guess a specific Gen 6 Pokemon as playable when very few Gen 6 Pokemon were unveiled.

You can either separate your Chrom/Lucina and Saki/Isa votes, guess for one of each between Fire Emblem and Sin & Punishment, or split them with one series and stick to one with the other (eg: guess Chrom, Lucina, and Saki, then remove Isa) , but you can't keep it as it is right now.

Also, for your Custom Robo guess, you can simply guess a Ray robot, and whether it's Ray 01 or another version of Ray, I'll still give you the points for it. Someone asked me a while back if they had to specifically guess Classic or X Mega Man, and I said just guessing Mega Man will give you +10 points regardless of which version (even fat Mega Man from Street Fighter x Tekken), so that rule should apply to the Rays as well.

[BANRYU]

Personally I don't really care about the points. o___o

And yeah, I think I wasn't explaining it terribly clearly, but the Chrom/Lucina and Saki/Isa thing was an instance of 'x will be playable and/but if not x, then y'. I'm assuming you understood that despite my horrible explanation of it and adjust accordingly.

[Randoman]

I figured that's what you meant by a Chrom/Lucina guess, though I'm wanting very specific guesses since I want to see which SF member can accurately guess the SSB4 newcomer roster the most accurately. I included a penalty for both "characters that are guessed and don't make it in" and "characters that people don't guess and do make it in." I wanted to try to make people really think with their guesses and only make guesses that they're very confident in with this game, rather than just guessing vague predictions like FE13 getting a rep and things like that (barring 6th Gen Pokemon, due to very little about it being known back when I first made this game).

Of course, Sakurai throws in characters like the Wii Fit Trainer, and makes me have to penalize everyone for guessing a character that literally no one but Sakurai would think of. But rules are rules. =/

[BANRYU]

Heh. Damn that Sakurai for being so unpredictable amirite?

I actually blame myself for that one. =3= You know what I said? I said to the heavens above, 'Allright, Sakurai, show me what you've got. I don't think a single newcomer you can throw at us is gonna surprise me. I've got your number, sucka'

I think he must have heard me because WFT happened lol

I get what you're saying and I feel pretty confident in putting my bet on Chrom in that regard, however in the case of the Sin & Punishment characters, it could really go either way and I'd hate to lose credit for one just because I said the other, y'know?

Also can I just say, I think that placing bets on a 6th-gen Pokemon is a complete waste. I really like most of the Gen 6 Pokemon, but none of them have made enough of an impact to become anything more than Pokeball material, like Dedenne.

Hey Randoman, are we allowed to place bets on who WON'T be playable? o3o Because I have a feeling I can get a lot more points that way lol (between Gen 6 and Pacman...)

[Randoman]

I'd probably guess Saki if anything, due to him being the very first protagonist of Sin & Punishment.

Well, at the time this betting game was first made, we hardly knew anything about the 6th Gen Pokemon and a lot of us were waiting for some sort of Lucario or Zoroark equivalent to be revealed (I mean, quite a few 4th Gen Pokemon were revealed before Lucario was, so it made sense to wait). Quite a lot of us know now that a 6th Gen Pokemon isn't likely, and since I didn't think it was fair to have removing/switching out the 6th Gen Pokemon slot take up most people's guess switch/removal, I made that one free. However, they don't have to use that switch/removal right away, which is why quite a few people (like myself) are leaving it on their betting lists for now and waiting for more news on Nintendo games to see if any characters look more likely.

Ehh... betting on characters that won't be playable... That's way too broad a topic in terms of the characters that won't be in, even if we were to narrow it down to popular guesses and predictions like Bowser Jr. and Pac-Man, plus calculating the points for that would be a nightmare due to the lists being a lot longer. Even if I did do that, a lot of people participating in this thread likely wouldn't be aware of that change, even if I were to edit it in my first post. I'll be keeping it to playable newcomers in SSB4 for this thread.

[BANRYU]

Heh, I figured as much. No worries then, I'll stick with what I've got for now.

You know what, I suppose betting Saki over Isa is a pretty safe guess now that you mention it, allright.

[Knight]

Gosh, I wish I could change like half my votes now. I'd like to swap my 6th gen Pokemon for... hmm, 6th gen Pokemon trainer I guess. If that doesn't count, then Greninja.

[Randoman]

Alright, any of you want to make some last minute switches before today's Direct?

I'm personally taking my free 6th Gen switch and switching it to Mii.

Gosh, I wish I could change like half my votes now. I'd like to swap my 6th gen Pokemon for... hmm, 6th gen Pokemon trainer I guess. If that doesn't count, then Greninja.

I'll count 6th Gen Trainer as a legit switch (and as I said before, it won't take up any of your switches/removals/additions). You don't have to list which starter will be in base form, middle form, and final form if you don't want to since that'll be too hard to pinpoint.

[Knight]

Can Greninja count, I said Greninja as a sheer nonsensical guess, holy shit!