Ensemble Mafia - N5

[Blitz]

Pretty sure lack of activity was me criticizing him for casing you on it...

my case was that he lied on what I said/didn't say and then called me scummy....

are you sure you read my case?

[Sunwoo]

There are about 45 minutes left in D2.

I have received 5 requests for an extension. You need at least six votes to extend phase.

[Elemina]

##Unvote; Vote:Yedi

Just in case phase ends, just woke up.

Spamming the thread is a privilege, not a right. I have lost that privilege. XD

[Sunwoo]

Votals

Rainbow/Proto (3) - Ryker, YOLO, SB
Yedi (3) - Blitz, Rainbow, Elemina

YOLO/Omega (1) - kirsche
Ryker (1) - Irony

No vote (4) Ken Masters, Yedi, Hober Mallow, Elieson

You guys have 11 minutes left unless someone votes for an extension.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Sunwoo

[Blitz]

we aren't lynching anyone today

we need a hammer to lynch

also, I do not have night talk this night

also, Elie, if you want to get rid me, feel free to do so if you do not like my content after the activation time of Wizard passes (that is N3)

I hope I will be able to get some better reads by then

[Elemina]

SB:

I can see how what I said is emotion rather than logic. I didn't think of it that way. I just though of it as 'reaction/genuineness' or at least, behavioral instead of just emotional. You have a point there.

Spamming the thread is a privilege, not a right. I have lost that privilege. XD

[Elemina]

Please cop Ryker

Please vig Refa (Seems to have good content but hasn't finished catch up)

Spamming the thread is a privilege, not a right. I have lost that privilege. XD

[Blitz]

Refa is my #1 townread, vigging him is a bad idea

[Sunwoo]

Phase end. No more posting.

[Elemina]

Vig Marrow then. This inactivity is no bueno. Starting to doubt SB. Keep an eye on him.

Spamming the thread is a privilege, not a right. I have lost that privilege. XD

[Sunwoo]

"Wow, we're really bad at lynching!"

"Too bad we don't have GP's role anymore, that would've really helped."

"Apparently, we're so bad at lynching that the mod's gone to go play Pokemon."

It is now N2. N2 ends at 10:45 PM PST on November 5.

[Sunwoo]

Phase end. No posting.

[Sunwoo]

"So, you guys remember that Brexit thing? Apparently, kirsche had to refile his paperwork or something because of that."

"Oh. That would explain why he isn't here today."

Dear kirsche,

You are Holly. You are Ensemble Red, the leader of this band of superheroes. You pretend to be a narcissistic, competitive jerk with an incredible sense of humor, but you understand human nature better than most people. Your unique ways of being able to motivate others and teach people how to behave properly are just what the team needs to succeed.

You’re a medical student – what else needs to be said? During the night phase, you may respond to your role PM with “Night X: Give <USER> medical advice.” Your amazing knowledge of random medical things will protect <USER> from all killing actions on that night phase.

In other words, you’re the doctor.

You are aligned with the Ensemble. You win when all threats have been eliminated.

It is now D3. D3 ends at 11:00 PM PST on November 8. With 11 alive, 6 votes are required to hammer.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Sunwoo

[Blitz]

Questions for everyone

Who do you think Kirsche saved N1? Why do you think person (more than one possibility is fine) was saved? Explain your thoughts.

Why do you think Kirsche was killed N2?

Who do you think would gain the most from killing Kirsche?

[Irony]

Well.... That's not good.

I don't think the Mafia knew his exact role, so I guess he was killed because of his posts? (Maybe the Mafia thought he was a threat?)

As for who he saved... Maybe one of the people who commented frequently?? So, like Ryker, Emelina, Blitz, myself... As they stood out more.

Well, the Mafia would gain most from killing Kirsche. But then we don't know who is in the Mafia, so... :/

[Kriemhild]

Pre-D3 stuffies

Pretty sure lack of activity was me criticizing him for casing you on it...

my case was that he lied on what I said/didn't say and then called me scummy....

are you sure you read my case?

I was trying to sleep, and I thought you were referring to:

[spoiler=Yedi Vote Post]

##Unvote

##Vote: Yedi

I am voting Yedi because he still hasn't responded and made a good case on a person other than Proto (I still don't agree with Proto cases from what I remember and I haven't read the Proto VS SB yet, might postpone it for a bit)

After looking back and reading through Yedi's posts, I could see what you mean. His cases feel like they were constructed just for the sake of having a case, resulting in flawed reasoning and poor construction. I would be okay with a Yedi lynch.

As for N1/N2 stuff, I'll post my thoughts after I scan through Kirsche's ISO.

[Kriemhild]

Questions for everyone

Who do you think Kirsche saved N1? Why do you think person (more than one possibility is fine) was saved? Explain your thoughts.

Why do you think Kirsche was killed N2?

Who do you think would gain the most from killing Kirsche?

The two most common reasons for bloodless nights, AFAIK, are a) doc protected Mafia NK target, or b) Mafia NKer got roleblocked. I think the latter is unlikely to happen so early since the Mafia would usually pick the towniest scum to handle the kill, who is not likely to be roleblocked. Kirsche's flip further suggests it was the first case.

Basically, I think what happened is:

- N1, Kirsche protected the Mafia NK target.

- The Mafia suspected the target's survival was due to a Doc protection for some reason, e.g., the flavor implied that they were protected, or the killer was safeguarded to ward off roleblocks, or they guessed that protection was more likely to have been the cause.

- They made a guess at who the Doc was and shot Kirsche, with their guess being correct.

Let's look at Kirsche's perspective first. We can safely eliminate Ryker, Refason, YOLO, and Hober as people he didn't find Townish. Kirsche likely wouldn't protect Elemina because she likely would not have been shot. Of the remaining people, Kirsche apparently felt good about Spinal, Proto/Rainbow, and SB at some point or another, from what I can gather from ISOs. I think it is likely that he protected one of those three. My guess at how strongly he felt about them relatively would be Proto/Rainbow > SB > Spinal, based on the impression I get from his posts. It's likely that he protected Proto/Rainbow.

If we look at the Mafia perspective, if we assume that Kirsche's shot was due to guessing he was a Doctor, then they were probably looking through everyone's posts and trying to figure out who would protect their target. I don't think it was his Spinal read that got him shot, so that leaves Proto/Rainbow and SB. Of the two, I think it's more likely that they tried to shoot SB, because there was plenty of anti-Proto/Rainbow sentiment already whereas SB seemed to be perceived rather positively by everyone who bothered mentioning him (I think). Still though, if they were guessing based on protecting SB, I doubt they would've guessed it was Kirsche who did it, whereas if they were guessing based on protecting Rainbow/Proto, I think Kirsche's positive opinion of Proto/Rainbow stands out more.

I wish Kirsche crumbed who he protected, but really, his D2 activity didn't seem to contain any crumbs (unless they were really obscure), though that post where he asked Proto/Rainbow and SB about our lynch priorities felt like he wanted to hear more from his top townreads. So I'm going to guess he protected Proto/Rainbow or SB, with the former being more likely.

On the other hand, if the Mafia shot was unrelated to Kirsche's alignment, then well, they probably shot him simply because nobody seemed to be scumreading him (so he might not be easy to lynch in the future) and they guessed he didn't stand out enough to be a protection target at this point.

(yes, this is a lot of fluff about game theory because tbh there's not much new content to work with otherwise)

[Kriemhild]

Refason gains the least from killing Kirsche imo, because he seemed to be Kirsche's top scumread and shooting him would look bad on him. Of course, it would be a WIFOM, but there's still the fact that people would reread Kirsche's cases with the knowledge of Kirsche being confirmed Town, so Refason would not be in a good position then. On the other hand, it could be someone like Ryker where someone else had a more dominating case on him which Kirsche supported, so eliminating Kirsche would weaken the supporters for that case while hoping that Kirsche's bigger case on Refa would generate more attention from his death.

Either way, these conjectures don't seem to be inconsistent with my general reads. I still want to lynch Hober Mallow > Ryker > Yedi. I don't understand why Hober Mallow didn't get vigged yet.

[Ryker]

Holy cow. I got wrapped up in my new game and completely forgot this game existed. I'll be active again today, but I have to read the back half of D2.

[Ryker]

Ryker:

I read your big Rainbow post and I considered it, and gave my conclusion in my #785. Talk to me about Yedi, Irony, and Refa. You say you like Refa better, please talk to me about that. Please.

Rainbow:

Here's the thing. With Refa, I had a gut feeling she was scum, and so I go and gather what I feel about her overall play. Your analysis expects scum to slip up and then have people look at that. I was looking under the surface. Obviously, Refa hadn't let down any scumslips, but I consider her entire motivation. Also, your reasoning is just wrong.

I disagree with your response to me originally, Rainbow. Naked votes can be unnerving. The thing is, the scum can't adapt their play if they don't know what part of their play they need to adapt. Now if you said that they know they *need* to be aware that part of their behavior may be telling, then yes, they know something may be off, just not what. I think where I disagree with you is having to have reasoning for a reaction test.

Spamming the thread is a privilege, not a right. I have lost that privilege. XD

Reads subject to change as I catch up the remaining four pages:

YEDI: No issues at this time. I find myself agreeing with his take on Rainbow and GP from D1. His thought process is matching mine and he had trouble keeping up in a game with week long deadlines as town. I don't think the lack of activity is indicative of scum, so I don't know what I have to scum read him at the moment.

IRONY: Fuck if I know. It's a literal shot in the dark. I hate every post Irony has made that includes roles. I'm annoyed that there's always a free +1 on my wagon because Irony is a newbie. I see flashes where I think "This kid knows too much about mechanics" or "That sounds like an angle a newbie wouldn't take" when she dives into another post, but I don't know what her werewolf career or lurking the mafiascum wiki could give her. Wouldn't mind seeing her lynched, would ADORE a cop result. I'm not actively pushing it because it gets us nowhere when there are better avenues to pursue (solving Rainbow, for example, who, at the time of this writing, I still hate).

REFA: GP flipped town. Most of my distaste for Refa's post was rooted in the unreasonable claims made about GP's role's validity and defense of GP in general. I have far less to hate on with a GP town flip.

[Ryker]

My god I'm halfway up through Page 17 and this shitfest is indeed, a shitfest.

For now

F.O.S. Blitz

This guy's scum. His role is scummy, and up until post #323, his posts have done the absolute minimum of scumhunting with measurable tonnes of defense and fluff. #184 is more fluffy but features questioning without pressuring. Sadly, it's classic Scum!Blitz meta, but considering that I forgot about 1/3 of the way through his post, who was the original poster, the point still applies.

#2, Yedi. As of #257, votes kirsche but doesn't have a single logged scumread. After this storm of a thread, there's definitely stuff to comment on and build votes from. I don't care if you had a reason; you expressed literally nothing with it despite having ample time to do so.

#3, Hober Mallow, for posting quite a few times, empty posts, then voting for Green Tea with terrible justification.

Struggles:

YoloSwag: #158 has a scumread on GP but a nullread on Refa for the same exact things, and all 4 or so posts prior to it indicate that he wasn't even reading the thread yet. How do you even attempt to analyze someone's posts when they're not even showing signs of effort? It's a real conundrum.

Kirsche: #326. Posts before this were relatively ok but the Elemina analysis is borked because dissuading people from analyzing others is inherently bad, regardless of their activity. Your semantics read as really forced nonchalantness, and it's not jiving well with me.

Irony: I've pulled the noob!town card in my very first game of Mafia, on this site, about 5 years ago, so I'm being super wary of it. That said, his posts don't read as being coached or advised, and his semantics/terminology seem very natural and far too formal, which implies that there's little chat from another source for him to make adjustments for out of casual immersion to the world of mafia itself. I'm wary because Irony's a smart lad, All my chats with Lord Raven on this forum verify that but this doesn't feel out of place. I just don't have an inkling of meta to use as verification of my doubt on the noob!town!scum thing here.

Ryker: Oh Ryker, Will Ryker. Will Ryker stop filling the thread with fluff? After eggclipse showed up, Ryker showed a 180 in posting style and I like where it went. Gone seems to be the circling and carrot-on-a-string banter between him and Ken Masters (Spinal) (mostly), and now actual reads are coming up. I'll show you my full notes later but it's appalling just how many times I jotted down "not helping the game move forward." Keep up the witty snark though; it turns this game into an entertaining sitcom and you should know, I highly enjoy sitcoms.

Townreads:

You can have them later. Refa left a little list of reads in his PM for me to check out but I'm not Refa, I'm Elieson, so you're getting the full Jelly Belly Eliereads treatment instead.

[spoiler=Notes up to about half through the game]

1. Ryker 2. Rainbow 3. Refa OH HEY ME INSTEAD 4. Spinal 5. SB 6. Blitz 7. YOLOSWAG 8. Hober Mallow 9. kirsche 10. Elemina 11. Irony 13. Yedi #69 lol, has no reason to vote, but loads of buildup for what could've been a good vote. Hi scum #166 WALL, Valid points on Elemina early game, but it's outdated. Ryker reads are spot on. Points out baiting on Spinal (Ken) which I agree with 400% o.m.g. what the heck was #72 reaction, this guy's on fire (I'd vote for Will Ryker for the same thing though) I genuinely have nothing on SB right now and borrowing Refa's thoughts of "-Stay suspicious of SB IMO, I'm not scumreading him but something about the slot bothers me."

Claims OddNight Insom/Post Limit. I immediately don't trust it #131/#132 have you read a single post yet? #191 Try scumhunting bro #326 Bingo, found a mafia. Elemina analysis is borked because dissuading people from analyzing players is inherently bad, regardless of activity and overall your semantics feel like a forced nonchalant Elemina's P1 List.. Opts for immediate NL. #257 FINALLY SOMETHING. After 250+ posts, why do you not actually have a scumread despite voting for kirsche? #76 don't say quality > quantity until it's a concern needing evaluation #274 Another fucking wall omg this wall had nothing but conversational responses in it #184, BIG REPLY, little content. Mostly questioning, without accusation or pressure. LET'S SEE THIS FOLLOWUP POST #154 scum but not lurkscum #194 TRY SCUMHUNTING BRO #34 WAY TOO MUCH LOGIC WITH TOO LITTLE INFO Ryker says a whole lot of nothing (Page 5 and 6). Spend time hunting scum or just lead town in circles discussing opinions on play style, idc what scum does since it's basically all scumposting r.n. #323 has like one counterpoint on Elemenia and a whole bunch of defense #158 How can you scumread GP but nullread Refa for the same things #248 Disgusting vote for GP Decent input in #99. Mechanics discussion isn't scumhunting, but Irony needs the help #117 if I were a betting man, I'd call this a clever little bus Valid push in #142. Unnecessary as a bus. If Blitz is scum, this is town #139 You're a snarky little punk and I'm loving it but you're still not actually contributing #180, an unwinnable argument. For every "I like to keep secrets and reveal them later" there's a fair counter of "You're just reacting in a way that's appealing to those accusing you. It's a pointless point #174 Lovely snark again, but seriously, being the center of attention and leading the game in circles for no evident reason is not helping the game move forward, unless you're scum looking for an early grave #256, a Numbers claim. Highly unusual. Not the role itself, it's been here a lot before, but the timing. #214 D1 scumreads -are- assumptions. Please #279 This is not a bad post at all. Moreso, it's a good post. Also I highly agree with Blitzread. Why can't you post like this all the time?

I like this guy, a lot.

[Ryker]

Whoa, whoa, whoa, I just thought about something.

Do mafia on SF generally receive safe claims? As in, roles they can claim and know not to be in the game?

[Ryker]

As for Irony, her newbtown aura just "feels" genuine to me. I can't really explain it, but I can't imagine either newbscum or experiencedscum pulling such a good act. Her first D1 post did feel off to me, I admit, so it is possible that she was improving her act, but idk, the way she also seems to be learning how to better contribute to productive discussions just feels too real.

Can you attempt to quantify what looks genuine? Reread those posts and give me examples and why they are genuine. There aren't many. I'm sure you can find examples.

[Ryker]

Honestly Blitz's role sounds like a poor attempt at Boron trying not to have a vanilla in the setup because everyone thinks vanillas are the scourge of the earth. I will mod meta to victory, what could go wrong?

Honestly, that conclusion is my first reaction. I reached a similar conclusion with Elemina.

[Irony]

The two most common reasons for bloodless nights, AFAIK, are a) doc protected Mafia NK target, or b) Mafia NKer got roleblocked. I think the latter is unlikely to happen so early since the Mafia would usually pick the towniest scum to handle the kill, who is not likely to be roleblocked. Kirsche's flip further suggests it was the first case.Basically, I think what happened is:- N1, Kirsche protected the Mafia NK target.- The Mafia suspected the target's survival was due to a Doc protection for some reason, e.g., the flavor implied that they were protected, or the killer was safeguarded to ward off roleblocks, or they guessed that protection was more likely to have been the cause.- They made a guess at who the Doc was and shot Kirsche, with their guess being correct.Let's look at Kirsche's perspective first. We can safely eliminate Ryker, Refason, YOLO, and Hober as people he didn't find Townish. Kirsche likely wouldn't protect Elemina because she likely would not have been shot. Of the remaining people, Kirsche apparently felt good about Spinal, Proto/Rainbow, and SB at some point or another, from what I can gather from ISOs. I think it is likely that he protected one of those three. My guess at how strongly he felt about them relatively would be Proto/Rainbow > SB > Spinal, based on the impression I get from his posts. It's likely that he protected Proto/Rainbow.If we look at the Mafia perspective, if we assume that Kirsche's shot was due to guessing he was a Doctor, then they were probably looking through everyone's posts and trying to figure out who would protect their target. I don't think it was his Spinal read that got him shot, so that leaves Proto/Rainbow and SB. Of the two, I think it's more likely that they tried to shoot SB, because there was plenty of anti-Proto/Rainbow sentiment already whereas SB seemed to be perceived rather positively by everyone who bothered mentioning him (I think). Still though, if they were guessing based on protecting SB, I doubt they would've guessed it was Kirsche who did it, whereas if they were guessing based on protecting Rainbow/Proto, I think Kirsche's positive opinion of Proto/Rainbow stands out more.I wish Kirsche crumbed who he protected, but really, his D2 activity didn't seem to contain any crumbs (unless they were really obscure), though that post where he asked Proto/Rainbow and SB about our lynch priorities felt like he wanted to hear more from his top townreads. So I'm going to guess he protected Proto/Rainbow or SB, with the former being more likely.On the other hand, if the Mafia shot was unrelated to Kirsche's alignment, then well, they probably shot him simply because nobody seemed to be scumreading him (so he might not be easy to lynch in the future) and they guessed he didn't stand out enough to be a protection target at this point.(yes, this is a lot of fluff about game theory because tbh there's not much new content to work with otherwise)

I know that it's not B). I am the role blocker, but my role has been limited in such a way that I'm basically a Vanilla Ensemble at the moment. Maybe we could add an option C) That there's a body guard who protected the person being killed on Night 1, but option A) is more likely. If that's the case, and Kirsche saved Proto/Rainbow and/or SB, it is safe to assume that they are Ensemble members.