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Does color affect appearance rates?


Rosetta
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Here's what the game says:

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The Appearance rates for Heroes of the same rarity is the same. Example: if the appearance rate for a Hero of a certain rarity is 3% and there are four possible Heroes of that rarity, then the chance of summoning each Hero is 0.75%.

Suppose there are only 2 colors: red and blue. And suppose there are 4 red heroes and 2 blue heroes. Then, the chance of getting each hero is 0.5%. So the chance of getting a red 5-star (non-focus) hero is 0.5% x 4 = 2%, and getting a blue one is 1%.

Now suppose I press "summon" and see a red stone and a blue stone. What happens if I choose a certain color?

Possible world 1: red stones and blue stones appear at a equal chance (say 50% and 50%, since we supposed there are no other colors). So if I pick the red stone, it's more likely to get a 5-star hero than picking the blue stone.

Possible world 2: after pressing "summon", we have 2/3 chance to see a red stone and 1/3 chance to see a blue stone. So that getting a certain red hero is (1/4) * (2/3) * 3% = 0.5, which equals the chance of getting a certain blue hero, that is (1/2) * (1/3) * 0.3% = 0.5. If this is the case, then for a person who only likes Marth (red) or Azura (blue) and doesn't care about other heroes, choosing the blue stone is a better strategy because the chance of getting Azura is higher than the chance of getting Marth.

So, how does the summoning actually works, or which of the above two possible worlds is the real world? In the real case, Heroes are more complicated but the number of Heroes of different colors are not equal, anyway.

(I guess the former world, because maintaining a equal probability by varying the rarity of stones is more complicated in computation, taking other rarities into consideration.)

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P.S. Why do I think about such a boring question? Because the game has already become boring and boring, so thinking about something stupid has become the only way to cheer myself up.

Edited by Rosetta
grammar
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My interpretation is there are 3 or 4 pools for each color (depending on if the color has a focus pool).  When you select an orb, there is a 3% chance of going into the 5* focus (if available) and another 3% chance of going into the regular 5* pool.  When you get into these pools, the unit you get is completely random.

Edited by Lushen
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20 minutes ago, Lushen said:

My interpretation is there are 3 or 4 pools for each color (depending on if the color has a focus pool).  When you select an orb, there is a 3% chance of going into the 5* focus (if available) and another 3% chance of going into the regular 5* pool.  When you get into these pools, the unit you get is completely random.

Before I read the summoning details, I thought exactly the same as you.

Since there are less white 5-star heroes than red ones, so is the appearance rate of a certain white hero higher than a certain red one? (I hope it's not the case. I only like Lucina and I don't want Takumi-lovers to be happier than me.)

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