Visionare Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) So, we all know Raven, right? Mercenary, redhead, kinda weird, but a really good unit. Well, I was playing recently, grinding arenas with him, and when he hit level 20 I thought his defense was rather low. Sitting at a 6 (see picture) and starting at a 5 at level 5, I thought he must surely have bad odds for gaining it, but never thought this bad. He has a 25% chance at a defense gain each level, and across 15 levels, that would be (1/4)^15 chance for only one point to be gained. That's a 0.0000000093% chance of happening! Literally lower odds than winning the lottery. Am I that unlucky or has anyone else gotten super stat screwed? Edited September 9, 2022 by Visionare e: someone updated me on the stats, and it's actually 6.7%, sp thanks for the correction! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lenticular Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Your maths is way off. (1/4)^15 would be the probability of a unit with a 75% growth rate getting no stat ups over the course of 15 levels. For a 25% growth rate, the actual numbers should be (1-0.25)^14 * 0.25^1 * 15choose1. Which is about 6.7%. Still pretty unlucky, but nowhere near as bad as you thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ping Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) It's (3/4)^15 So not nearly as unlikely - about 1.3%, or 1 in 75. 0.0000000093% would be the likelyhood of him gaining Def every single level. e: Ninja'ed and I missed that he did gain Def once. Good job, me Edited September 9, 2022 by ping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Visionare Posted September 9, 2022 Author Share Posted September 9, 2022 1 hour ago, lenticular said: Your maths is way off. (1/4)^15 would be the probability of a unit with a 75% growth rate getting no stat ups over the course of 15 levels. For a 25% growth rate, the actual numbers should be (1-0.25)^14 * 0.25^1 * 15choose1. Which is about 6.7%. Still pretty unlucky, but nowhere near as bad as you thought. Oop my bad, did the math on the fly lol. Thank ya for the correction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djunna Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 He can do it. I believe in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benice Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 (edited) That does remind me of this: In 18 levels, Elen gained just one Magic in spite of her 50% growth- That's a 0.007% chance of happening and more or less one in fourteen thousand. Pain. Edited September 10, 2022 by Benice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eltosian Kadath Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Reminds of this sad little Florina that I tend to show off every now and then Poor thing hasn't raised strength once in those 11 levels I got her, she even has lower strength than if I had skipped Lyn mode; ~0.36% chance of that happening... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Fargus Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 On 9/9/2022 at 9:54 PM, Eltosian Kadath said: Reminds of this sad little Florina that I tend to show off every now and then Poor thing hasn't raised strength once in those 11 levels I got her, she even has lower strength than if I had skipped Lyn mode; ~0.36% chance of that happening... Damn that sucks. Seems kinda low on RES too IMHO so cant even attack mages either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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