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HTakara82

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    Prediction/Theory: School Phase will be 3 Years

    in Fire Emblem: Three Houses

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Landjager said:

     

    @HTakara82

    Here is the video where the school phase is stated to last a "full school year." They mention it around the 37 second mark.

    Also Japanese schools start in April, not March, and they typically follow a three semester schedule, not two.

    Lastly, West Point Military Academy is a university, not an Officer's Academy. It lasts 4 years because its graduates receive 4 year degrees upon graduation in addition to officer training as an elective. US officer training at the Officer Candidate School lasts only 12 weeks.

    EDIT: Sorry if this comes across as curt; I just wanted to point a few things out.

    Game Spot =/= official, they're just saying whatever based on their hands on at e3. If this was an accepted fact, every site would have reported this as such. But its just some unknown chick who played the demo. 

    Spring is spring, and my example is just that, an example. You're taking it too literally.

    Same thing Academy and University is synonyms 

    Academy - A place to study

    University - An institution of learning

     

    28 minutes ago, PurpleHairedMage said:

    you'll need to give a real example and not just throw out something like this without backing it up

    oh look, someone trying to be a smart ass, but too bad it's so easy to make you look stupid

    https://myanimelist.net/anime/genre/23/School

    EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM

     

    MODEDIT: yo don't doublepost

    Prediction/Theory: School Phase will be 3 Years

    in Fire Emblem: Three Houses

    Posted

    1 hour ago, timon said:

    Uhm, you come off a bit rude tbh, considering this whole discussion is based on a theory (which is already a bit wrong seen as it has been said that it's 12 months...).

    Anyway as other users have already pointed out, you're mixing up universities and officer schools. The former is a complete (usually heavy on law and history) degree with added military training, at the end of the course you not only become an officer, but you get a degree in military science/political science/something like that depending on the country.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Officer_candidate_school

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_academy

    The setting in Three Houses definitely suggests that it's officer training, not a complete university.

    PS: also even if we were talking about military colleges, I wouldn't take WestPoint as the prime example considering it's the academy of the most militarized state in the world. In Italy for example it's just 2 years and France is something similar IIRC.

    I know, I'm a bit of a dick tbqh

    But in any case, it's not just military training, it's also to prepare them for the roles of being world leaders. The point is, the academy is extremely important in the world's society. Making it equivalent to training for a plumbing license is pretty laughable.

    I don't know what your experience is with Japanese media such as anime and other games that have a school like setting, but they tend to borrow their own school system into whatever setting they're in. I've yet to see an exception. Even this game starts in the spring, which is when Japanese schools starts the school year, as oppose to the west which starts in the fall. It's not too far-fetch to lend the possibility of them going with their standard 3 year schooling system. 

    Prediction/Theory: School Phase will be 3 Years

    in Fire Emblem: Three Houses

    Posted

    2 hours ago, timon said:

    There are armies in the world where the officiers academy lasts for as few as 3-4 months, so a year it's really not that little. Consider also that the students are 18-20 years old so they must already have some form of education (and the fact that Lysithea was admitted because she's a prodigy tells us that there are requirements to join this place).

    Like West Point? oh wait that's 4 to 8 years... uh... is it like some 3rd world country in Africa or South America? you'll need to give a real life example and not just throw out something like this without backing it up. 

    Prediction/Theory: School Phase will be 3 Years

    in Fire Emblem: Three Houses

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Kiran_ said:

    Oh no, I would LOVE a long game. I would really, really enjoy a long game like RD again. I just don't particularly want the school portion to be the bulk of it! And I fear if that portion is 3 years (even with skips) it will leave a lot less for the war phase which seems to be a really interesting part!

    I don't have a basis for the time skip being the bulk, I'm just doing based off old games and the fact they revealed in when they did and how they did from a marketing standpoint. It has to be at least HALF the game because if it was only the last 3rd or so it would make sense to only tease it near the end of the promotional material. But since they did a lot earlier it stands to reason at least half the game is War Phase, and I'm inclined to believe based on the hype they gave for it, it might be more than half. When I say 'bulk' I don't mean like 3/4th of the game. I'm hoping something closer to 2/3rds or so. But that's just speculation/hope on my part!

    "This year", but we also haven't seen any older students. It's always divided by 'house' which seems odd. It wouldn't make sense for the academy to wait every 3 years to admit students, but the fact we've gotten no indication of a senior class above them (you'd think some characters could have been from the other years) is odd. Which leads me to believe it is a year-ish. I think there's a reason to talk about it if it's a single year for military academy where all the important nobles/lucky commoners come together for a year and then return to their respective countries! But I'm more inclined to believe some event happens which forces them to leave (specifically the three main lords).

    I don't think 3 years is impossible, but just based on what we've been given, unlikely unless they do skips specifically (which I can 100% see), but even then I still think the military academy might be 2 years at most.

     

    I think we as a community need to stop basing off of what's been done in the past. Virtually everything Three houses has done so far has been far away from the norm. 

    We do see other "faceless" NPCs in roaming around, they're just not important. There's no way that the entire school is made completely of only 24 people, that's just silly. 

    Some more reasons why i believe the game is long; 

    Old Fire Emblem level conventions are gone, we've seen beginner tier hitting level 25+, stat ceilings seems to be a lot higher as well, and the fact that you can break the stat caps +5 to all stats as well through the statues. And that there's several tier levels. We've shown up to Advance class, Noble / Commoner > Beginner > Intermediate > Advance, and we see that the bar can scroll down to even a higher tier class. Meaning the game is staged to be long. If the game is set for us to reach such high heights it's not unreasonable for the game to be long enough for us to take advantage of the "tier 4" classes (I'm counting the starting class as tier 0)

    Prediction/Theory: School Phase will be 3 Years

    in Fire Emblem: Three Houses

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Kiran_ said:

    I'm also pretty sure in some gameplay videos during E3 one of the people playing the game said the first part was "about a year"

    And in VincentASM's analysis (https://serenesforest.net/2019/06/12/three-houses-e3-treehouse-live-day-2-analysis-part-1-academy/#more-53112) it says " It’s currently the 11th month, the Red Wolf Moon, which is around halfway through the school phase."  and we know it starts the 4th(?) month or something, which would imply it sits at about a year.

    Also, if every month is a "chapter", that's A LOT of chapters pre time skip when it seems like the +5 Years is going to be the bulk (or at least slightlyyyyy) more than half the game. So the only thing that makes sense is if they DO do "skips" like you suggested, but even then they'd have to do a lot of skips, so many so that I feel like the story might become disjointed. 

    I think realistically, something happens that would make them leave the school after this unspecified time period. And it's a military academy, it makes sense to be 1-2 years at most. 

    Game starts on the 3rd month, early screenshots show March as the starting point. Which is 9 months into the game's story from the e3 demo.

    In any case you make it sound like a long game is bad. Radiant Dawn for example had 43 chapters. And on what basis do you think the time skip is the bulk? nothing really points to it. At most it'll be half. At least that's my opinion from my own analysis of what we've been shown. 

    think about it for a minute, Lysithea's bio is "the youngest admitted student THIS YEAR" and she's in the same classes as the rest of the students, that means everyone is first years just like her. The only way that the academy will only take place in a single year is if the school itself is only a year. Which is entirely impossible, but at the same time... how can you train military officers and world leaders in a single year? 

    In the trailer dialogue, it sounds like they're talking right before graduation, I could be wrong, but there's no reason to talk about graduation when they're still first years, it makes no sense. 

    I've learned to not take vague, and unspecified comments from tree house members at face value, the PR people generally aren't super knowledgeable, Audrey is the only one that I know of that actually plays the games in and out.

    I would like to think that I'm really good at deductive reasoning based on what is given to me, I predicted the entire gameplay flow and holy blood several weeks before anything about them was officially announced, though I can be completely off base, but I feel the evidence is too strong for me to ignore. But again, this is merely a theory, a hypothesis if you will, so I'm glad there's people like you and others here that are willing to discuss and challenge my theory ❤️  

     

    Prediction/Theory: School Phase will be 3 Years

    in Fire Emblem: Three Houses

    Posted

    Why? because Lysithea's profile confirms that the students are all newly admitted, meaning first years. If we go by the Japanese school systems, that'll make it 3 years. 

    With the recent trailer, we got dialogue where they hear them making a graduation promise to meet up again, meaning we're going to be around for start to graduation before the time skip.

    So I see two possibilities:

    A- We're playing out all the years of the academy

    B- There will be mini time skips after the first year to speed up the time in the school

    Also have a theory on the "story battles" of each month, each "story battle" won't be plot turning story sequences, but rather they will be padded. Like there will be major training battles, where you take your students out for practical battle training, and then there will be exam battles as well, these events are basically to see your students growths over time in a story setting rather than just be a menu thing. Just as an example of the first year:

    (I 1000% believe the game starts in March, that's when the school year starts in Japan)

    March - First training battle
    April - Minor story battle
    May - Mid term battle
    June - Another training battle, but with some story sequence
    July - Semester Finals - with some main plot thrown in
    Aug - Vacation
    Sept - 2nd semester starts Story battle
    Oct - training battle
    Nov - Another Story battle (this was shown in the tree house)
    Dec - Mid terms
    Jan - Story battle
    Feburary - 2nd Semester Finals
    March - break in the beginning, then start 2nd year with story sequences

    I outlined based on Japan's school calendar, and how I feel the years will play out. Obviously just an example.

    Now let's see how accurate i'll be once the game comes out

    Story theory about Byleth

    in Fire Emblem: Three Houses

    Posted

    So after thinking things over, thinking about the "Night Crawlers", Flame Emperor and such. 

    I come to be thinking, that the "bad guys" is going to try and recruit Byleth. Why you ask?

    Well, they oppose the church, yeah? And it comes full circle to Byleth's crest. He has the crest in which opposed the church in the past. According to release information, one of the professors (old guy with monocle) seems unfamiliar with Byleth's crest, despite being a crest researcher. Meaning Byleth's crest has been erased from history, as obviously the church won the massive war in the past, therefore the victor writes history. Also the Flame Emperor seems to recognize Byleth's crest and is "intrigued" by it. Not to mention giving the protagonist a demon's name as the default isn't just coincidence, IMO.

    The cutscenes from all the trailers seems to point to all of this, that I believe, that the "bad guys" is going to want Byleth, probably thinking he's like their messiah or something, the second coming of the past king, you know the old guy that wielded the sword of creation in the past war, also since he is an ancestor of Byleth afterall. 

    But of course, there's going to be more to it, and that everyone and their granny doesn't really fully understand the meaning behind the crest, and that it's actually more closely linked to the dragons themselves and not good or evil.

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted

    16 hours ago, Tenzen12 said:

    I think everyone should have at least one 5*+10, at least I definitely planing do exactly that with my Cecilia (though I am not that far yet) 

     

    She is totally broken being cappable of 1HKO Neph without initiating even! Wrath suddenly doesn't feel that big deal...  

    you do realize how stupid your statement is right?

    I placed Nephenee against the worst possible match up she can have, and you placed Cecilia against the easiest possible matchup she can have....

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted

    1 minute ago, dragonlordsd said:

    Sorry, don't get me wrong. Neph is a great character, Wrath is a crazy powerful skill,

    but she's not Reinhardt levels of broken.

    Even with those stats, there are still plenty of blue units that can effectively duel her (Lancina, Lukas, etc.) and while she can definitely do some amazing things in the right situations, I don't think wrath is broken.

    On her, at least. Now, on some other characters....

    those other blue units play excessively different roles. If those other units are built ideally for what they are, they'll all lose to her in offensive prowess simply due to how deadly Wrath is. If she has Ignis charged up, she can 1 HIT KO virtually everyone with excessively minor exceptions. It's very hard to find units that can survive Wrath proc'ing. 

    Reinhardt is indeed currently the king of offense due to targetting Res with a brave effect, but he also dies to anything that sneezes at him.

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted · Edited by HTakara82

    8 minutes ago, dragonlordsd said:

    No, see, that's my point, my friend.

    Neph CAN'T run vantage and wrath. So she'd have to give up wrath to run it.

    But you are right, on your specific neph, ardent sacrifice does have her hit the hp on the mark, but it's still a big risk to run that with no desperation.

    mmm, not really, Nephenee takes so much punishment that it's not even funny.... here's a acquaintance of mines +10 +SPD Nephenee without any support bonuses

    m21PH2m.png

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted

    14 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

    Life and Death 3.

    Same... You sure you didn't like over buff her?

    11 hours ago, Tenzen12 said:

    Well not all Bikes run Bonfire yet. Given he comes with complete skill set And have one most expensive special, even after Hitting lv. 40 not many people would have enough sp  to add bonfire already. I am sure that mine Ike doesn't. 

    Also Vantage Lucina is legit. DC is nice bonus, but what is prime requirement is high attack. Which she certainly has. 

    I'm acquainted with a number of whales, and they all run Aether and they're never dropping out of t20. 

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Hilda said:

    I am getting this numbers because Lyns Legendary Weapon has built in Desperation below 50% HP ;) which means she wont get counterattacked inbetween her 1. and 2. hit. In other words she cant die unless the opponents survives both hits or has high speed that Lyn can only attack once. (Considering she has the 3. highest Speed of all the units there are only a couple that can do that)

    I did put her at 18hp which is her 50% range, and that's the numbers I got.

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, dragonlordsd said:

    Wait, wait.

    I might be missing something, but how does the math work out?

    So, she hits for 27. Nifty.

    But first, she has to be at least below 29 hp (probably lower, tough to hit on the mark)

    But then Bike counters with Bonfire, for, what, 52 + 20% = 62 ish,

    62-39= 23. 23+19 = 42

    So, how the heck does she survive the counter?

    Take it further with Hector, +att hits for 27, so if you're even one or two points of hp off, he doesn't even need bonfire to wipe the floor with you (same with +att ike)

    I mean, maybe if you're going on a full neutral Hector this works, but that assumes no buffs. I mean, if he grabs, say, even a single attack buff, she's toast.

    And no, she can't possibly be running desperation, Wrath takes up her B skill.

    I mean, I just can't see any way she could kill either of them.

    Maybe you could have Bike run Aether instead, but I've never seen a Bike actually doing that.

    Edit:

    Also, she doesn't match up great against Brave Lucy either.

    Lucy has more neutral speed, so she won't get doubled, and fury Lucy will take 37. Which hurts, sure, but Lucy will then return a solid 14, and then with moonbow and vantage takes her out on the next round no matter what.

    What does trouble me much more than neph is the implication that wrath stacks with wo dao. That's where things start really getting ugly (i'm looking at you, Lucina and Elincia)

    You do know that not all B!Ikes run bonfire right? I've run into more with Aether than Bonfire, everything is anecdotal, just because you prefer Bonfire doesn't mean everyone else does. 

    Also it's excessively easy to to hit 29 HP, 1 Ardent Sacrifice puts her exactly at 29. You're assuming you'll always be under 29 hp. 

    Match up against Lucina? you mean vs? if they were to fight each other, whoever attacks first loses. And who the hell puts vantage on Lucina? Everyone knows vantage mostly goes on units that can DC. If you slapping vantage on her just to fuck with Nephenee, Nephenee can slap on vantage to fuck with her too. I don't see where you're going with this.

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Hilda said:

    Did you run the numbers on Lyn? because i did and a +SPD/-RES Sol Katti Lyn running Wrath 3 in Desperation (SPD Seal+1) range kills 116 units that run Fury 3 as their A Skill and have a SPD+ Boon, 134 wins if they run ATK+ boon. that number spikes up to 142 with Brave Lucina SPD buffs on Lyn and to 156 with additional Delthea buffs. You only need that 1 reduction at the start of the turn to kill a unit with Lyn!

    I do see your point, but that can be achieved by other units too (see Lyn above) if the opponent doesnt run an optimal built and Aether is not an optimal Arena Defense built imho.

    Yes I did run the numbers, and I overridden to give all enemies Fury 3 to account for variations in stats. and skill setups and her numbers are 79 wins 59 losses and 30 Draws, I'm not sure what you're doing to get those numbers.

    So Nephenee can 1RKO Hector and B!Ike

    in Fire Emblem Heroes

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Hilda said:

    My Brave Ike would like to way in and tell you that he will instantly counter your Nephenee with Bonfire. So unless she runs Desperation (which she wont due to Wrath 3) she will die with only 29 HP. I only run B!Ike with Aether when i am doing stuff outside of the Arena. in the Arena he runs Bonfire. This is even before considering that he has S rank with my Avatar.

    You might want to consider that other Players run other builds. Wrath 3 is not broken. Its okeish but it doesnt prevent your unit from dieng, because you cant run Desperation and Wrath 3 in the same slot, unless your name is Lyn and you have a Sol Katti.

    In that sense i might also call my Sonya broken because she can ORKO Red mages due to her Tome and Infantery Pulse on Turn 1, but i dont because it all boils down on the other units built.

    Summoner support doesn't effect enemy controlled units aka Arena / Arena Assault, so that's a moot point. And yes people run different builds, but many do run Aether, so it shouldn't be discounted. 

    Desperation is NOT good with Wrath + Moonbow, why? because the 2nd hit won't be a moonbow hit. Wrath only deducts -1 on the start of the turn. And since sol katti doesn't have a CD reduction on it, it's simply not efficient. She'll only be able to fire off 1 moonbow at a time. If she wants to take out tankier units, she'll need double moonbow proc, and for that to happen, she needs to take a hit inbetween attacks. And if she's in desperation range, she'll die, period. She doesn't have the bulk to survive hits. Lyn will never be able to win against any lance user even with wrath. They will all survive her attack and one shot her.

    The point of the topic is that Nephenee has the capacity to take out bulk greens when she has a color disadvantage. Which is excessively rare for a melee unit. 

    Also, a +ATK Sonya with 0 CD Moonbow with Death Blow 3, still can't 1RKO a neutral uninvested Celica, and dies on counter.

    Should you attack a unit when you have the disadvantage? of course not, you should avoid it if possible, but it's nice to know that you have the option if you're forced to. 

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