Zeonth

Rad, read my scumteams. I want thoughts on athena before d4.

You missed it.

Sorry, but I’ll work with what I’ve got. Since the only other two players are basically null (does anyone suspect xand?), this is the theory I came up with.

The conclusion I was drawing was mack was more likely town and fable was more likely scum but you are right. I misread fenrir swapping off me to evan as mack swapping to evan. Embarrassing. I am back to my bart + mack team.

Sorry, your first half of this post is meaningless to me. The way you played in a past game holds no meaning to the way you play now. It has long been a belief of mine that playstyles can change on a whim and that metagaming only hurts the mafia experience as a whole and takes away from the headbands you have to play to get your reads. I refer you back to evan, who apparently played similar to how he did this time as how he did as town in a past game. Note, this is a belief, not a throw-away thought to push my narrative. It has been a thing I have believed since early in my mafia career and I’m sure xand and rad can easily testify to my disgust for metagaming. The second half is fair, as this will help me to determine how I feel about you in d4 idle bart flips town. Assuming we both live. Scum decides that.

I would like to further push my point of fable being more likely scumteam with athena if bart flips town. Mack I was an early lynch on bart d2 and swapped to evan when bart didn’t have steam. This implies mack went from bussing one partner to bussing another. This is something I missed until athena had me go back to double check. Meanwhile, fable, the ratio is mentioned in the rules. It started as 10v3, not 10v3v1 or w/e. There is no sk. Updated scumreads: bart + fabel if bart flips town: arhena + fable note, I am not completely clearing mack from the possibility of scum.

I cannot day for sure, as I do not know how your thought process works or what your typing speed is. A lot is possible in 2 minutes, the decision didn’t have to be well thought out if it was a spur of the moment reaction. Your objection is not something you can prove, and so I will consider it null and keep my situational scumread on you. Besides, my scumread on you only has feasibility if bart flips town. You don’t think he will, do you? After all, you are one of the votes on him.

Follow-up, the post you made after my vote and before your vote is important as it would have shown my vote on evan. This takes away from your theory that I sniped another vote onto evan and you would have been third, as you would know I was there and still have placed it.

This is incorrect. The votes were: Zeo 4 (athena, maka, fenrir, bart) evan 1 (fable) bart 2 (xand, mack) *xand moves to evan *zeo moves to evan *athena makes a post claiming an unlynch from pressure but not to who votals: Zeo 4 (athena, Maka, fenrir, bart) evan 3 (fable, xand, Zeo) bart 1 (mack) *you switch to evan

It’s more of a gut feeling. I see it as more likely you and fable are together than you and Mack, with my biggest reasons for a mack scumread atm as his lack of original thoughts and basic copy-catting of my/rad reads. He’s beginning to read as more neutral to me, with my scumread on him being for lack of more solid scumread a elsewhere, all of my other ones being situational to how bart will flip today.

I see it as an attempt to gain towncred, perhaps one you didn’t expect to gain such traction since it had 3 town votes on me (Makaze, fenrir, bartozio (assuming bart flips town, as he is still scumread)).

Consider my vote on Bart, but not placed for Athena’s fear of selfhammer.

My PoE now becomes this: scum- Bartozio scum (leaning null)- mack scum (leaning town)- athena (leaning scum)- Fable town- xand null- rad/junk My scumteams look like this (most scummy on left, least scummy on right for all that follows): bart + mack/fable if bart flips town: athen + fable/mack if mack were to flip town today: bart + fable/Athena

FoS returning to Fable, now. One thing that is weird to me today is that he is the first one on bart and was the first one on Evan. But, after a pressure lynch was changed to Rad, Fable changed his vote to a pressure one on Rad, too, citing that rad needed pressure like I did. However, fable quickly decided I was billy and decided to point out the “shady votes from Sats willing to go to me.” This feels like an attempt to gain some towncred by sleeping the pressure lynch, something that goes against the straightforward style he’s presented up until that point in the game. His lack of follow-up since then do not help change this read. This one may may be a bit reachy, but it’s something that struck me as weird when reading back over Mack’s previous post and checking fable’s switch-up.

In order of most likely flip, assuming bart flips town tonight, my biggest scumpartner for Mack becomes Athena. This has been bugging me, but last night you made the case that Evan flipping scum was good for me and bad for bart and set a good case for them as a team. However, this can also be seen as an easy misslynch on bart and the possibility you were bussing Evan last day still exists. You had started the lynches on me last day as a pressure lynch that quickly gained votes and didn’t see you leave the wagon until after the Evan train began to rival it. This could be seen as you feeling it was safer for you to get off me, as your case for staying on a pressure lynch that flips town would be worse for you than a bus. Before i do mack I need to read back on some things.

If you read my posts last night, you and bart with Evan. athena, why would bart hammer himself?

I decided Fable would be more likely town as Makaze was my townread last day and he was the one who initially started the interactions between Fable/Maka/Evan by calling Fable out as scum (and lynch) in RVS and Evan as his second scumread in the same post. This is what started the chain that lead to them OMGUSing each other. There was always the possibility it was a double bus (a low one, proven false, but one I would not ignore). I believe my thoughts were explained well enough when I said the only way I would suspect Makaze as scum is if Fable flipped scum first, as I was not sure of his alignment. Evan was a scumread no matter what, he was scummy in a vacuum (stealing your term, Fen) and was someone who pinged me early. The only way the double bus theory had credence to me was if Fable, who's alignment I was not sold on, flipped scum first, as I was sure of a scumread on Evan. Fable would not have been off the hook, but his late D2 posts felt townie enough that I wasn't ready to lynch him first and likely would only have as consolidation to check my theory.

Questions I asked Bart after his "I feel like lynching Zeo, Fable, Evan until we hit scum" Mack's reply to Bart's post. These feel strangely similar to my own questions and makes me feel Mack is once again riding off of other's idea when posting his reads/questions.

Imo, I don't see Athena as a scumread, atm. If I had to pick a scumteam of three, I would view it as Evan, Bart, and Mack. Evan's flip will further help me to clear Fable (as previously stated) and helps Athena decide if Bart is scum (re: "evan flipping scum looks bad for bart"). More in depth post about Bart and Mack will be coming up soon, and, ngl the rest of my reads will be a bit lazier as Xand and Junk were more null throughout D1 with townleads coming more D2.

Some more of my reads before Fenrir sleeps. Want to see his responses if he has time while I finish since it's 6am. EvanManManMan- unchanged (scumread). Target of my lynch. Started early as a scumread for his “forced” entry in RVS and his randomly placed reads. He also never really answered the initial question I posed for him in my first wallpost. Fable- null (scum lean)- Thoughts remain relatively unchanged but the time he’s taken to reconsider his Makaze OMGUS tunnel has helped me to view him in a more positive light. Still possible he could be scum, but I feel like another scumteam is more likely. Started as a null read and dropped into scumlean as his interactions with Maka/Evan tunnel OMGUSes continued. Recent posts demonstrate his ability to read content and interactions and (grudgingly) accept his initial reads may have been wrong, a 180 from the stubbornness he displayed all of day 1, bringing my read back closer to null, as the scum lean is still there. Makaze- town lean- Your review of your thoughts and you willingness to change reads and apply pressure on someone you had viewed as a town read after being presented new evidence continues to ring towny in my mind. My town read on you has slightly dropped after me giving my initial thoughts on you/evan/fable, as you were online and posting afterwards without offering comments. This may just be due to the fact I had not posted my full reads list, yet. Your initial lynch on me was as pressure, you switch to Evan and somehow decide he is towny enough and pressure me back. Do my posts give you enough reason to take a pressure lynch off me? If you keep your lynch, explain what of my reads changed your mind and turned your pressure lynch into a scumlynch. Initial thoughts on him were null. I expected him to be better than just a Fable tunneler and was disappointed that he wasted half the phase only messing with Fable. His later reads on D1 ((after my first wallpost)) moved him to a town lean before he became my biggest townlean D2 and then dropped back to lean for reasons mentioned. RADicate- leaning town- Initial thoughts on Xand/Athena and his analysis of Xand’s reactions and reasonings read as towny to me. His town read increased drastically when he made his analysis of Fenrir and pointed out the possibility of his scuminess. Had he continued his strong posts into D2 (I know, hypocritical coming from me), he would be a town read, but this has dropped him to a town lean instead. Fenrir Aesir- null- Initially had you as pretty null, even with your interactions with Athena/Bart and your flawed argument. While I read RAD as towny for his reads against you, I did not agree with them and did not feel a need to bring you up D1. Reading your posts as you make them, I feel my reads on you starting to change. The spoiler page you post and analysis on my Maka/Fable/Evan post is spot on and shows your ability to look at things objectively and intelligently, especially after Bart’s “confusion” which he used to push me. Your level-headedness makes me value your reads all the more and I am moving you up to a town lean midway through this post.

Alright, I am going to post the rest of my reads, but I doubt any cases will be as strong as the one against Evan, atm. I hope to be awake before DL hits tomorrow to see how Bart replies to my questions for him. As for my lynch, I am going to go ahead and place it on Evan for 2 reasons: 1- To show how serious my scumread on him is and that I wish to clarify my reads on Fable and Makaze by pinning down Evan’s alignment. 2- Slight self-preservation. ##Vote @EvanManManMan

Almost impossible and impossible =/=. In my preferred scenario, Evan is lynched first and flips scum, detracting from a Fable scumread (which I would not push unless further evidence comes up). Even if Fable is lynched first, my scumread of Evan remains. I currently do not expect Fable to be lynched first or flip scum (but note my thoughts if he does). I also do not expect Makaze to be scum or to have bussed both partners based on my townread of him and would only view him as scum based on the flips of Evan and Fable being scum. My read on him is one of town unless other evidence comes up to contradict it (namely the alignments of fable and evan, who he has early and consistent history with). 1- Does this mean you now suspect me as scum with Evan and Fable and me to be bussing both my partners? 2- If I flip town first, does that mean you townread Evan and Fable? 3- You lynch me based on this post before seeing my reads on the rest of the players. Are you hard sold on scum!zeo?

I have 3 (plur) atm. Feel free if you need to.

More likely. I believe the possibility of scum!makaze bussing both partners to be much higher than him bussing only one, assuming his buddies are both fable and evan. If fable and evan are not the same scum alignment, Makaze gets a much clearer townread from me. Assuming both fable and evan are townflips, my read on makaze becomes null, leaning town (for his previously mentioned town vibes in my read of him). Does that clear things up?

I do not dismiss the possibility of Fable and Evan as bussing, hence: Before *ylo, I would like to see Evan lynched (and first out of these three). If Evan flips town, I would read Fable as likely scum. If Evan flips mafia, then I would see Fable and Makaze as town. If Fable were to be lynched before Evan and he flips town, my scumread on Evan remains. If Fable is lynched first and flips mafia, my scumread on Evan remains (though, weakened) The chances that they could be scum together is still there, just slightly less likely based on flip order. I view Evan as most likely scum, and so if he flips scum first, it detracts the idea that the others are. If Fable flips scum first, it doesn't take away the scumminess that Evan has shown, though the likelihood of two scum in the three is significantly lower. The possibility that Makaze can also be scum comes only after the other two flip scum. It's not at all a likely thing, but if they bussed once (fable/evan) then I will not dismiss the possibility that they triple bussed to throw town off in a *ylo situation. It's wifom, mostly.