Life Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Anyways, just because Zak (or for that matter Ulki) hasn't been mafia yet doesn't mean an RNG will pick 'em this time. To throw a semi-non-sequiter out there, should Gilliam fail to gain speed 10 times in a row, his chance to gain speed on the eleventh level remains 30%. Not exactly correct. Gilliam not getting Spd 10 levels in a row is .310 which totals out to 5.9-4%. The chance of Gilliam gaining 1 Spd in 11 levels is .310 x .7 against .311 for gaining 0 Spd in 11 levels. Now transpose that to here. If Bal hasn't been mafia for about 4 games, he's got a slightly higher chance of being picked than not being picked on the whole. The math gets a lot more complicated but it's very similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uguu Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Not exactly correct. Gilliam not getting Spd 10 levels in a row is .310 which totals out to 5.9-4%. The chance of Gilliam gaining 1 Spd in 11 levels is .310 x .7 against .311 for gaining 0 Spd in 11 levels. Now transpose that to here. If Bal hasn't been mafia for about 4 games, he's got a slightly higher chance of being picked than not being picked on the whole. The math gets a lot more complicated but it's very similar. That's not really correct. (My example will be with a coinflip since a 50/50 chance is easier to grammar with) You can say that it's more likely to get heads 4 times and tails 1 time than heads 5 times (with 5 flips). The reason is because of the specific ways (tails/heads/heads/heads/heads, heads/tails/heads/heads/heads, etc.) But what you're saying is that after four flips of heads, there is a higher chance that it is tails. This is wrong. Every specific possibility has the same chance (heads/tails/tails/heads/tails, heads/heads/heads/heads/heads, heads/tails/heads/heads/heads, etc.) The only reason that 4 heads and one tails is more likely than 5 heads is because there are 5 difference ways to get 4h/1t and 1 way to get 5h. Now, if you were saying that "out of the next 5 games _____ will most likely be mafia in one of them" you may or may not be correct (don't care to do the math on that). But, remember, you're saying that _____ has a higher chance in this specific game because he hasn't been mafia in earlier games. Four of the 'flips' have already been decided. They don't matter anymore. The only possibilities are 4h/1t and 5h. His chance to be mafia is exactly the same as everyone else's. no I don't need anyone to tell me how fucked my grammar probably is in this post, and I probably messed up somewhere with the percentages but iuno Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted April 30, 2010 Author Share Posted April 30, 2010 To answer your money questions about buying/using multiple items in one day, that's in the first post and not in the spoiler section . And I haven't just added it. Every night, you can buy and/or use as many items as your money allows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Okay, so in the interest of self-preservation, I'm going to rescind my previous vote, and vote for Ulki. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 By self-preservation, I mean that me being lynched means there is no chance of a mafia being lynched that day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 I find that those looking for evidence are usually Mafia members looking for something to make others innocent, myself included. Now let me explain myself. I know when I was mafia (and that's a whole freakin' lot it seems) I didn't try to make them look innocent, but just go for members that weren't on the team. 1. I thought we were starting with a day phase. Is that a crime? Apparently so. Idiot. You're missing the point. It's the fact you were so quick to throw a stone at Zak. 2. Bal hasn't been mafia in a while. In the world of percentages, him being mafia isn't so far fetched since he eventually will be mafia. Think of it like gaining a stat in any FE game. The longer you go without getting a level up, the more likely that you'll have to get it during your next one. Oh yeah? He was on my team in Bizz's game. 3. what is this i dont even That is to say you decided to go for him anyway, even after you voted for him. Honestly, I don't understand the sentence or the logic behind it. If we were to assume that I didn't make a mistake, why would I stupidly put myself out on the chopping block? Especially when you've seen how sharp I really am. Either you seriously think that I don't know how to play this game (which makes you dumb as a post in my own opinion) or you're just fishing for something just to knock me off (which only a Mafia member would truly do). I'm inclined to give you the benefit of the doubt and say the second option, just so you know. Honestly, have you heard of thinking? You call yourself smart, but you've gone for some people out of spite. I'm looking for some reason to knock _anyone_ off because we have no decisive evidence. This is evidence, thus I follow it. Go through my history. Aside from my one confrontation with Hika in Spoon's 3rd round, I've only been lynched because I'm Mafia (and every single time, the detective has found me out) or I've been nightkilled. What does this say? I don't make stupid mistakes and I don't say things for the sake of saying them. And yet you voted Hika out of spite. And I'm not going to do it for you, but when have you actually nailed a mafia member, from your own logic rather than following a bandwagon vote? Core called you stupid for a reason. And I think I understand why. Love you too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Life Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 And yet you voted Hika out of spite. And I'm not going to do it for you, but when have you actually nailed a mafia member, from your own logic rather than following a bandwagon vote? I've been Mafia too many times but remember that time that I was the swing vote and I ended up killing you, the Godfather? There was also Hika back in Round 3 (Alpha Wolf) but you'd say it didn't count since nobody listened. What you call evidence, I call coincidence. By your own train of thought, you should vote for the first person who votes on the 2nd day. Otherwise, your comment about me being "so quick to throw a stone at Bal" is a hypocritical one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 I've been Mafia too many times but remember that time that I was the swing vote and I ended up killing you, the Godfather? There was also Hika back in Round 3 (Alpha Wolf) but you'd say it didn't count since nobody listened. What you call evidence, I call coincidence. By your own train of thought, you should vote for the first person who votes on the 2nd day. Otherwise, your comment about me being "so quick to throw a stone at Bal" is a hypocritical one. The swing vote. You swung it in one direction--you did not start the attack (correct me if I'm wrong, I'm too lazy to check). And I would normally, but I don't since you and Hika get along "so well." No, it's not the fact you voted first and fast alone, but that you attacked one of the smartest people. And it turns out he was town, so it looks like he denied statistics, eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Life Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 The swing vote. You swung it in one direction--you did not start the attack (correct me if I'm wrong, I'm too lazy to check). And I would normally, but I don't since you and Hika get along "so well." No, it's not the fact you voted first and fast alone, but that you attacked one of the smartest people. And it turns out he was town, so it looks like he denied statistics, eh? Let me just reiterate myself. wat is this i dont even I threw out a random vote. I legitimately thought we were starting on a day phase. Is that so wrong? Or am I supposed to be held to such high standards that others don't have to be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Let me just reiterate myself. wat is this i dont even I threw out a random vote. I legitimately thought we were starting on a day phase. Is that so wrong? Or am I supposed to be held to such high standards that others don't have to be? Why not vote for someone less useful? Hell, why not vote for me? Or Ulki or Lighting or Trompe or whomever else was thought of as an idiot? Why go random and go for someone intelligent? That's what I want to know. If you threw out a random vote without thinking, then unlike what you say, you do make stupid mistakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uguu Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 yeah, Lux is Est tier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 yeah, Lux is Est tier That was either a compliment or an insult, I can't tell which. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uguu Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 there's your answer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 there's your answer Well. >_> You could have just said I was Est. :< That I would have taken well. ;A; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Life Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Why not vote for someone less useful? Hell, why not vote for me? Or Ulki or Lighting or Trompe or whomever else was thought of as an idiot? Why go random and go for someone intelligent? That's what I want to know. If you threw out a random vote without thinking, then unlike what you say, you do make stupid mistakes. Because I don't discriminate. Just because you're dumb doesn't mean that you can't be mafia. It just means that you have no influence over the town during the day phase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Life Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Worded the above a bit wrong. Just because you're dumb, it doesn't mean that you ARE mafia. And just because Bal or Spoon are smart, they don't have to be innocent. But a bunch of you follow them around blindly, absolutely convinced that they cannot possibly be mafia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Worded the above a bit wrong. Just because you're dumb, it doesn't mean that you ARE mafia. And just because Bal or Spoon are smart, they don't have to be innocent. But a bunch of you follow them around blindly, absolutely convinced that they cannot possibly be mafia. Oh? I think either of them could have been, but it's more prudent to take those who are less smart down first. Because without evidence we don't know who did what. If a smart person begins to act suspicious then we should go for them, but at the beginning it's better to attack those who are less intelligent that either 1. Are mafia 2. Aren't very good at contributing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 I suppose that it should be pointed out that mafia can pretend to blindly follow someone. <_< Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 I suppose that it should be pointed out that mafia can pretend to blindly follow someone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lux Aeterna Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 quote break, ignore the above. I was saying that's pretty much what I did when I was mafia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Should I end the day phase now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliriyum Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Yes Bizz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uguu Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 It's been like 26 hours I think so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Its been long enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Okay. Let me get something together really quick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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