General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 I can help you cross check if you like, but you'll probably refuse my help since I'm playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted June 3, 2010 Author Share Posted June 3, 2010 (edited) I can help you cross check if you like, but you'll probably refuse my help since I'm playing. See Ulki's post. That'd be cheating. But in any case, I'm pretty sure I've got it. I'll send everyone's visions shortly and try to get the probability tables up tonight. If Tables sees any errors in the numbers, I'll update them in the morning. In any case, preliminary readings indicate 123 viable games remain. Edited June 3, 2010 by Fayt Zelpher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 (edited) Nice, we knocked out 77 of them tonight. Edited June 3, 2010 by General Spoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted June 3, 2010 Author Share Posted June 3, 2010 Nice, we knocked out 73 of them tonight. I miscounted. You guys knocked out 81 of them, leaving 119 remaining. But if I had been correct, it would have been 77 anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 I misspoke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted June 3, 2010 Author Share Posted June 3, 2010 (edited) So, I can't count and there's actually only 118 games left, but I think I've figured this all out now. Player Good Evil Dead 1 98 20 0 2 97 21 9 3 86 32 0 4 91 27 16 5 91 27 0 6 93 25 0 7 105 13 0 8 103 15 41 9 100 18 23 10 96 22 9 11 101 17 18 Expressed as counts instead of percentages. Player 3 has grown some fangs and player 8 looks a bit ill? You okay, player 8? In any case, Day 2 has started, so let's kill someone today, okay? Edited June 3, 2010 by Fayt Zelpher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Hey, who's player 3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Life Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 I have pretty good proof that Snike should be our lynch today. In every game that I'm the Seer, the man's evil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Meh, works for me I suppose. Actually, I can't see any harm in hanging random people. Snike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Well, I'm going to redo the table (which is a slower process than you might think), but here's what I have for percentages (would people prefer percentages or numbers? I can do either) Games remaining: 121 Player | Good | Evil | Dead -------|-------|-------|------- 1 | 83.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% 2 | 82.6% | 17.4% | 7.4% 3 | 72.7% | 27.3% | 0.0% 4 | 78.5% | 21.5% | 14.0% 5 | 76.0% | 24.0% | 0.0% 6 | 79.3% | 20.7% | 0.0% 7 | 89.3% | 10.7% | 0.0% 8 | 87.6% | 12.4% | 38.0% 9 | 84.3% | 15.7% | 18.2% 10 | 79.3% | 20.7% | 7.4% 11 | 86.8% | 13.2% | 14.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkin Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 I suppose we could go for snike No harm in that. Give us some clues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 If we're gonna go by that, then I'll vote Snike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riariadne Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 I have pretty good proof that Snike should be our lynch today. In every game that I'm the Seer, the man's evil. Hmmm... while that may be true for you, in every game I'm the seer, he's innocent. However, I'm probably not seer in that many games... sooooo Snike's good for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 I've checked, I got the exact same table I said before. So until further notice, my table is the correct one (not that the small number differences will make much difference to anyone but me and Fayt) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Life Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Hmmm... while that may be true for you, in every game I'm the seer, he's innocent. However, I'm probably not seer in that many games... sooooo Snike's good for now That's not exactly true. He's got a much higher chance of being innocent than guilty. So if he's guilty in every game that I'm the Seer, then that might be around 10 or so games based on my probability of being the Seer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 (edited) Oh hey I've just thought of something. It goes like this. We all kill the same person at night. This makes it so that the only games this person is left in IS WITH HIM AS A WOLF. So now that we have that person being a wolf, we hang that person. And we would do this once more for the other wolf. Let me check the player list to randomly decide who can lose. Does anybody object to us doing this to Ether? Edited June 3, 2010 by General Spoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tables Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 I'm not going to ban that strategy, but I'd ask people not to use it. It works exactly as Spoon said, and therefore makes for a boring game where two people get picked on and everyone else wins, as they have nothing to gain from defecting. Spoon, I hope you understand. (Fayt may ban it though, I don't know) Also, to make things crystal clear for those who aren't sure yet about what causes game states to become impossible: Any game state where the Alpha Wolf kills the Beta Wolf - one scum cannot kill the other Any game state where a Seer has an incorrect vision - when the Seer gets a vision, it must be correct in any game that they're the Seer in After lynching, any state in which the lynched player was already dead - the lynch must be correct at that time, so a player cannot have been killed beforehand Any state that doesn't match a player's revealed role - after lynching and the above has been decided, or otherwise when a player becomes 100% dead, they must have exactly one role. I believe that if a player is town, then we won't decide whether they're the Seer - so games that they're the seer and that they're town are both valid. The 'problem' with Spoon's method is number 3. Because everyone has killed player X at night, none of them can be the Alpha Wolf. So, the chance of X being the alpha wolf suddenly becomes 100%. Similarly with the Beta Wolf. And so that stops the game being what it's meant to be, and it just becomes a mundane game of choose someone and kill them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Well, I kinda knew that part would happen, and it would be pick two people to lose. I'm mostly throwing it out there to see what others think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted June 3, 2010 Author Share Posted June 3, 2010 Well, I kinda knew that part would happen, and it would be pick two people to lose. I'm mostly throwing it out there to see what others think. Well, I won't ban it outright either, but for the sake of a fun game, I'd prefer that you guys not do something like that. However, if you still do anyway, I do reserve the right to take steps administratively to stop that plan from going through. Immunity for a player, new game states, and modkilling are all on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeaponsofMassConstruction Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Wait, doesn't guilty not mean mafia in every game you're seer, but only the possibility of mafia in every game you're seer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Spoon Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 That's an odd way of saying "I'm banning it." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted June 3, 2010 Author Share Posted June 3, 2010 That's an odd way of saying "I'm banning it." Well, I'm just saying that depending on what happens, I reserve the right to take steps for the good of the game as a whole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fayt Zelpher Posted June 3, 2010 Author Share Posted June 3, 2010 Wait, doesn't guilty not mean mafia in every game you're seer, but only the possibility of mafia in every game you're seer? If you get a result of guilty, then in every game in which you're the seer, that person must be mafia. No more and no less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ether Posted June 3, 2010 Share Posted June 3, 2010 Yeah,lets just play normally,shall we? Anyhow,I'll vote Snike,and state that in any games where I'm the seer,General Spoon seems to be not-evil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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