Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 To clarify: If you lynch me first, and then Kevin, we lose if you're wrong about one of us being Mafia. But if you lynch Kevin first, then I can kill whoever you want me to, and then get myself lynched, allowing you to check a third person. Even if I AM a SK, lynching Kevin first would still guarantee a Town victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darros Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 ##Unvote I have to leave for school in a few minutes, but I don't want my vote to be set in stone upon my return, so I'll do this and figure out what to do when I get home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 To clarify: If you lynch me first, and then Kevin, we lose if you're wrong about one of us being Mafia. But if you lynch Kevin first, then I can kill whoever you want me to, and then get myself lynched, allowing you to check a third person. Even if I AM a SK, lynching Kevin first would still guarantee a Town victory. Except... that's not what will happen, right? If you want me to change my mind, explain who else can possibly be a SK... I won't accept any answers with a probability of less than 20%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Except... that's not what will happen, right? Why not? Can you think up any possibility where that won't happen? If you want me to change my mind, explain who else can possibly be a SK... I won't accept any answers with a probability of less than 20%. Kirsche and Darros both claimed that they shot Mafia members. Darros, in particular, has a very suspicious kill, which supposedly has only one use and bypasses protections... it doesn't look very Townish to me. Kirsche claimed to ba a Jack-of-all-Trades, and I never heard of a Jack have two uses of only one ability, but one use in the others. His other actions have not been proven and it is impossible to make him prove it now. Bizz's role is also one that can't be proven anymore. I may be the most suspicious of them all, but I definitely have a kill. If am a SK, you can lynch me tomorrow. Lynching me today means that tomorrow's lynch will be your last chance at winning, and if you're wrong about Kevin, we'll all have to suffer for it. Keeping me alive tonight will give you another chance at winning, with my kill eliminating one of these other people. So, even if you're wrong about Kevin, keeping me alive would allow you to verify somebody else's role by my kill, before you lynch me. And, in all honesty, I doubt you guys would continue thinking that I'm a SK after tonight, because the SK would be busy killing someone else. Even if a third chance is not very appealing to you, please at least try to give one reason why lynching me first may possibly be a better idea than lynching Kevin first. My life would give the Town an extra chance, which is the only thing that you guys can really use at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Even if a third chance is not very appealing to you, please at least try to give one reason why lynching me first may possibly be a better idea than lynching Kevin first. My life would give the Town an extra chance, which is the only thing that you guys can really use at this point. Why not? Can you think up any possibility where that won't happen? The snips in your claim are bothering me... I don't see a reason why a Vig would have not only one, but two additional abilities... we talked about SK not having a very high chance at winning a few times before iirc, so I could imagine some sort of lynch control... or maybe an extra kill just once... As for your suspicions... we had three kills tonight and have claimed sources for all of them... so there are only two possibilities in which none of those sources would be the SK... 1. They attempted to shoot me... it's publicly known that I have two BPVs, Core flipped town, so he had no reason to lie, and I basically confirmed it... in other words, this would go against the SK's interest to actually kill everyone else... 2. The SK targeted someone who was already shot by another source... the probability of this happening is less than 10% if I'm not mistaken. I propose that we stop arguing for a bit and let everyone else have a say in this... I think we both made our points clear... btw why are you refering to the town as "you guys"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 His other actions have not been proven and it is impossible to make him prove it now. Again, I point to my post where I very clearly showed that I knew Kay's role. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Also, ##Vote: Kiku-Ichimonji. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Because you guys are trying to lynch me. And again, while I admit that your evidence pointing me as SK is very good, it doesn't change the fact that it would be wiser to lynch someone who isn't claiming to be a Vig. And it seems that you're overlooking the fact that me being a SK means that Town has no Vig. While such a situation might indeed be possible, the important thing is that this theory means we will only have one kill tonight, not two (which I predicted based on myself being a Vig and not SK). So even if I do have some special lynch control (I'm assuming something like doublevoter) or a one-time extra kill (getting a double kill even once sounds really stupid to me though), you guys can still lynch me tomorrow. Unless you're paranoid enough to assume that I have a vote weight of 3.5 or something ridiculous like that. Seriously, Kaoz, I cannot understand how you can have anything to gain by lynching me before Kevin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 He can save us waiting another week just for you to die. it doesn't change the fact that it would be wiser to lynch someone who isn't claiming to be a Vig Not if said vig is incredibly suspicious. If you want to clear yourself so badly, claim fully, without the snips. And again, please answer how I knew Kay's role if you still believe that I may be lying about it. I can understand a serial killer jack-of-all trades but I would really like to know how you think my post regarding Kay is juts a coincidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Okay, fine, maybe not you. But I am still suspicious of Bizz (non-verifiable), and Blitz (we already have a "Guardian"). Take your pick, Kirsche. If you're so sure of me being a Serial Killer, you can win the game tomorrow. But from my perspective, we need to lynch someone else first so that I can check out another player. Your thoughts, Kirsche? ##Unvote: Kirsche Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 But from my perspective, we need to lynch someone else first so that I can check out another player. How would you intend to do that then? and Blitz (we already have a "Guardian"). No we had a Bodyguard, blitz is a defender/doctor. Sorry but you're times up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riariadne Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 votals Blitz: 0 (Proto, Darros) Proto: 3 (Kaoz, Blitz, Kirsche Kevin: 0 (Proto) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 How would you intend to do that then? By shooting someone tonight. We have six people alive. If you lynch me, and have the SK shoot anybody, you'll be left with four people. The only information that could be gained from my death is that I was not lying. Each Townie will gain 0 info about the other three people alive. And if you mislynch then, you lose the game Now, if you don't lynch me and lynch someone else instead, then you will learn that person's alignment. I can then shoot somebody, and I'll let you guys decide who. This way, we can take the TWO most suspicious players (aside from me) and check both their alignments, as opposed to just checking me (by lynching me first). And if I still remain suspicious by then, you're free to lynch me. So you can choose between killing me and then getting yourself into a difficult situation tomorrow, or you can just lynch someone else, and allow me to shoot another player, making tomorrow's lynch easier to decide, regardless of whether I am a SK or a Vig. And if you still think I am a SK, then all you have to do is lynch me and win the game. And as I pointed out so many times before, no matter how suspicious I am, there is absolutely NO benefit to lynching a Vig-claim before a powerless role when you are GUARANTEED to be able to afford a second chance to lynch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Tbh there's noone better than you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Regardless, I guess there's no harm in it. ##Vote: Bizz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Okay, let me make this simpler. Let's say the three most suspicious living players right now, in order, are: 1. Proto 2. X 3. Y Case 1: Lynching Proto Since I'm #1, that means I should be the best person to lynch, right? Let's see how that would turn out. You guys lynch me. Okay, #1 is actually Town, bah. SK shoots somebody other than X and Y. Tomorrow, you guys go and lynch X. Which means if Y is the actual SK, you guys are gonna lose. Case 2: Lynching X Now, what if, instead of lynching me now, you guys lynch X. Okay, so #2 was actually Town, doesn't matter, because Proto is still the most suspicious. So then I shoot Y, while the SK shoots somebody other than me (it would be awesome if they shot me though). If I'm a Vig, you'll have three people remaining. If I'm a SK, you'll have four people remaining. Either way, you guys can lynch me, since I'm the only suspicious guy left. Yes, even if I have a doublevote, or a doublekill, I can still be lynched. For Case 1, Town wins if either me or X is a Serial Killer, but you lose if Y is the Serial Killer. For Case 2, Town wins if either me, X, or Y is a Serial Killer. Town only loses if all three of these suspicions are incorrect, and even then, we may have a chance if you guys believe my Vig claim after you see two deaths tonight. Now why on Weyard would anybody, other than the SK himself, want to try out Case 1 instead of 2? Kaoz and Kevin, I am not arguing my position on the Suspicious list. I am definitely #1 on that list. What I want to know is what kind of advantage you guys see in Case 1 for preferring that over Case 2. And please don't spout out some rubbish like "You might have a vote weight of 3.5" or "We are so sure that you're a Serial Killer that we want to end the game now instead of waiting another week". Kaoz and Kevin, why do you both want to try out Case 1 when it should be obvious that Case 2 is a safer choice for the Town? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Snip 1: LPV Snip 2: Mayor Scenario: Town - Solo 5 - 1 4 - 1 (mislynch) 3 - 1 (night kill) 3 - 1 (LPV) 2 - 1 (night kill) 2 - 1 (double vote) 1 - 1 (night kill) Solo wins I have explained my reasoning, and the probability that this makes the town lose is very low... I don't see any reason to change my vote... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Okay, I take back what I said about a 3.5 vote weight sounding ridiculous. To consider the possibility that I have both a Lynchproof Vest AND a Doublevote is just too much. And you're even disregarding my entire point solely because of such a silly assumption? Seriously, Kaoz? Ask yourself the question, Which is more likely: That I am a Serial Killer with a Lynchproof Vest and a Double Vote and that Reinfleche did not put any Vigilantes aside from two bullets distributed into two players Or That I might be the Serial Killer or may not be, but even if I WAS the Serial Killer, I don't have both a Lynchproof Vest AND a Doublevote. Kaoz, I don't think Reinfleche is an idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I have explained my reasoning, and the probability that this makes the town lose is very low... I don't see any reason to change my vote... About this, is there anything about me that actually makes me suspicious, aside from the fact that you'd have expected four deaths when two Townies did some killing? Kills can coincide, someone may have tried to shoot you, the SK's secondary ability may have been a roleblock that held the Mafia killer, etc. I find each of these possibilities to be much more likely than me being a SK with both a Lynchproof Vest AND a Doublevote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Okay, I take back what I said about a 3.5 vote weight sounding ridiculous. To consider the possibility that I have both a Lynchproof Vest AND a Doublevote is just too much. And you're even disregarding my entire point solely because of such a silly assumption? Seriously, Kaoz? I'm disregarding your point because you failed to provide what I asked for. About this, is there anything about me that actually makes me suspicious, aside from the fact that you'd have expected four deaths when two Townies did some killing? Kills can coincide, someone may have tried to shoot you, the SK's secondary ability may have been a roleblock that held the Mafia killer, etc. I find each of these possibilities to be much more likely than me being a SK with both a Lynchproof Vest AND a Doublevote You are suspicious because -your claim to have idled for a quite illogical reason -you still haven't claimed your complete role -you have failed to provide better alternatives Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Kaoz has won me back. ##Vote: Kiku Ichimonji My first gut instinct is usually right anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sober Emo Girl Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 i like how none of the mafia were or have been lynched, what a great, exciting game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darros Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I don't think we should lynch Proto today. Lynch him tomorrow. He stated he'd shoot who we ask him to, and if he doesn't he'd likely be SK and we can lynch him. I don't know who I suspect though. I personally think that Bizz might have conveniently claimed a role which doesn't work anymore, so I'm going to vote her, solely for the fact that I don't want to lynch Proto today. ##Vote: Bizz :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riariadne Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 47 hours left btw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Honestly, Blitz, that's um... okay. I understand why you might want to lynch me. However, I've been softclaiming my role incredibly vaguely since D1 and even though my attitude thus far has made my play look horrible (personality =/= mafia playstyle though--if I'm simply aggressive/complain about no talking at night during the night phase, that's just me and shouldn't really be counted as a scumtell but whatever I've already tried to say this many times) and I can't really prove my role... have you even claimed yet? I haven't been reading, and I'm probably going to leave again soon for dinner because I'm hungry as all hell Here's how I see it: Proto and I are, I suppose, the most-suspicious looking players right now, Blitz for second place. I need to actually read through his posts (the only ones I've really been reading into are Proto's defense posts, which honestly aren't very... convincing to me; they seem to have a desperate tinge to them, honestly); Blitz's sudden turn on me is really... unusual. If Proto isn't our SK, I really think it's Blitz, but just let me go back. I only know that I completely trust Kevin and Chaos. I can't prove my role anymore, though, so if you need to lynch me to narrow suspects down, go ahead. I was actually kind of having fun with it and I was really hoping the mafia/whomever would try coming after me and saving the town a kill at night, but I guess it's too late for that now. That was the purpose of most of the way that I behaved, barring my mood swings because, yes, I have those, and they're probably the reason why I'm going to refrain from playing mafia here in the future. It seems like all I do is upset and offend everyone here, but blah blah, I'm saving that for a huge apology post that I've been working on, so you'll all probably see that floating around here after dinner. ##Vote: Proto I don't like him and I'm not going to bother reiterating what everyone else has said. If he truly ends up not being SK, I'm going to look at Blitz/Darros. I'm still looking at you, Darros, especially for your shoddy reasonings behind some of your suspicions. /; Also ugh, I feel like there way something else that I was going to add here, but I forgot. I think it was something important that I noticed earlier ughhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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