Official SSB4 Newcomer Bets Thread

[Inactive Account404]

Do Charizard, Zero Suit Samus, or Shiek count as newcomers?

[King Marth 64]

Do Charizard, Zero Suit Samus, or Shiek count as newcomers?

Nope, they're still veterans.

Besides that Mega Charizard X and Mega Lucario appeared as well, but I did heard from Serebii.net saids that Mega Lucario will be appear as a Final Smash, but I probably didn't hear Sakurai saids that?

And I wanted to two more to the list: King K. Rool and Palutena.

Edited April 9, 2014 by King Marth 64

[Randoman]

Why, oh, why did I switch my 6th Gen Pokemon slot for Mii last second? >_<

Here's the current scores:

Randoman: 110
Silver Pegasus: 85
Vashiane: 115
shinpichu: 85
Acacia Sgt: 70
Konnor97: 102
Fire Emblem Fan: 92
Knight: 95/102/110?
Ruarik: 110
Green Poet: 102
Greatgramcracker: 77
ShinRPGamer: 92
Shin: 95
Dark Legend Vampire: 85
Harmonie: 85
Owain Dark: 110
Devilsbane: 85
Zeem: 95
AllAroundGamer9: 70
Kamina: 70
JasonMendez: 70
King Marth 64: 70
Ein: 70
Alfred Kamon: 92
Rehab: 85
TharjaAssault: 85

Polydeuces: 70

BANRYU: 70

Current Winner: Vashiane

Can Greninja count, I said Greninja as a sheer nonsensical guess, holy shit!

I'm kind of iffy on it. Though since you wanted to change it to 6th Gen Trainer (over Greninja) and that was allowed, I'm kind of reluctant to, plus other members would think I'm biased or playing favourites if I did allow your Greninja guess when 6th Gen Trainer had more priority regarding your switch request.

Do Charizard, Zero Suit Samus, or Shiek count as newcomers?

Nope. They were transformations turned into separate characters and since they and their movesets existed in previous games (and the official site itself considers them veterans), they won't be considered for this betting game.

Besides that Mega Charizard X and Mega Lucario appeared as well, but I did heard from Serebii.net saids that Mega Lucario will be appear as a Final Smash, but I probably didn't hear Sakurai saids that?

And I wanted to two more to the list: King K. Rool and Palutena.

Final Smashes or not, I'm not counting Mega Evolutions as separate characters. Not unless they have their own separate spot on the roster.

Also, as I said before King Marth 64, you keep going over the 2 switch/addition/removal limit. You only have one more switch/addition/removal, and that's it. Unless you use one of the free switches/removals like the one that came with the Wii U X update (and you have to specify you're using a free switch/removal).

Edited April 9, 2014 by Randoman

[Konnor97]

I want to bring to mention the fact that Ridley is confirmed to not be a character for he's a stage hazard/boss for the Metroid stage (from what I understand from various info sources). Also that any Pokemon Trainer will have a 99.99% to not appear because of the whole 'no mid-match transformations' rule that split up Zelda/Sheik, Samus/ZSS, and the Pokemon Trainer mons (even though it seems that only Charizard will return).

Just somethings I wanted/needed to bring up.

[Randoman]

Anyways, regarding determining Knight's current score, this is how we'll do it:

The next few people that post here (by around midnight at the earliest), please vote in post form for what you think we should do regarding Knight's vote (pick one of the three):

-Give him -5 for guessing 6th Gen Trainer when it was Greninja

-Give him +2 for correctly guessing a 6th Gen Pokemon like he had it in his original post

-Give him +10 for guessing Greninja despite it being a secondary guess

I would simply edit in a poll, but I don't know how to do that.

I want to bring to mention the fact that Ridley is confirmed to not be a character for he's a stage hazard/boss for the Metroid stage (from what I understand from various info sources). Also that any Pokemon Trainer will have a 99.99% to not appear because of the whole 'no mid-match transformations' rule that split up Zelda/Sheik, Samus/ZSS, and the Pokemon Trainer mons (even though it seems that only Charizard will return).

Just somethings I wanted/needed to bring up.

You're likely right, but just to simplify things (and you never know when Sakurai will pull a fastball on us), I'll only account for deconfirmed characters after the whole roster is revealed.

Your post makes sense and that'd be the most up to date way to do things, but at the same time, things will get really messy if we account for deconfirmed characters with points, only to have them confirmed later on and have to recalculate the scores. Sakurai even said himself at the start of the Direct that everything he shows about Smash Bros. 4 is subject to change. Though Sakurai didn't say it himself, it's kind of implied that confirmed newcomers are a lot less subject to change than deconfirmed newcomers.

I hope you don't mind the way I'm waiting out for deconfirmed characters until after the game is released.

[Konnor97]

I don't mind at all because that makes perfect sense, and I should've mentioned it in my post like I was planning to. Sakurai can be a troll sometimes (ZSS fake-out), and we don't know for absolute sureness until release.

Heck, for the Ridley example, there could be a new boss (uh, like Meta Ridley or whatever) if Ridley is in play like with Toon Link in the Spirit Tracks stage. It's still extremely unlikely, but there's no full guarantee.

As for Knight, my personal opinion is -5 points. He changed 6th gen mon to 6th gen trainer. He mentioned that if the trainer wouldn't count, then he would have Greninja. He didn't give mention to any of the trainer's mons, but there was no rule that said he had to, and others didn't say anything specific on mons the trainer would have, so he keeps the 6th gen trainer guess. This is, from what I feel, the most neutral option.

Edited April 9, 2014 by Konnor97

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I am so, SO bummed that Lyn is coming back as an Assist Trophy and not a playable character...ah well, maybe in the next Smash game.

As for Knight, my personal opinion is -5 points. He changed 6th gen mon to 6th gen trainer. He mentioned that if the trainer wouldn't count, then he would have Greninja. He didn't give mention to any of the trainer's mons, but there was no rule that said he had to, and others didn't say anything specific on mons the trainer would have, so he keeps the 6th gen trainer guess. This is, from what I feel, the most neutral option.

^That's how I feel as well.

[Knight]

I'm okay with losing points, but I am still surprised that my random guess was picked.

[Randoman]

Alright, so after discussing Knight's score, here's the standings after the update:

Randoman: 110
Silver Pegasus: 85
Vashiane: 115
shinpichu: 85
Acacia Sgt: 70
Konnor97: 102
Fire Emblem Fan: 92
Knight: 95

Ruarik: 110
Green Poet: 102
Greatgramcracker: 77
ShinRPGamer: 92
Shin: 95
Dark Legend Vampire: 85
Harmonie: 85
Owain Dark: 110
Devilsbane: 85
Zeem: 95
AllAroundGamer9: 70
Kamina: 70
JasonMendez: 70
King Marth 64: 70
Ein: 70
Alfred Kamon: 92
Rehab: 85
TharjaAssault: 85

Polydeuces: 70

BANRYU: 70

Current Winner: Vashiane

Also, I'm thinking of adding this rule, in case people try to sneak their way out of the -10 penalty for an incorrect guess:

Any character guesses that are heavily deconfirmed due to reasons such as being an assist trophy, enemy, boss, etc. become locked and people are not allowed to add/switch/remove that character from their guess list.

So what do you guys think? It'll make calculating points in the end much simpler, the point calculations will not get messed up from any potential changes Sakurai makes, and people can't cheat by changing out their deconfirmed characters.

Also, what do you think we should do if there's DLC newcomers? Do you want to count those newcomers for the betting thread as well as the on-disc/card characters or do you want to only count newcomers that are on the disc/card? I'm personally wanting to stick with the latter, since I'm guessing most people made their bets with the mindset that we weren't taking DLC characters into account, and their guesses likely would've been quite different if they knew if there'd be DLC characters.

[Konnor97]

I also like the second option more. I personally wasn't thinking with DLC in mind, and I doubt many others were also. Plus it seems a little silly to count DLC characters because they are just bonus characters.

I like the policy for 'practically deconfirmed' characters, because yeah, it wouldn't be fair to switch them out to dodge losing points.

[Randoman]

So Konnor97 agrees with both my views on those two issues. What does everyone else think?

[ZemZem]

LOL I'm still in this? :P

Hmm...I might update my list.

[Inactive Account404]

Also, I'm thinking of adding this rule, in case people try to sneak their way out of the -10 penalty for an incorrect guess:

Any character guesses that are heavily deconfirmed due to reasons such as being an assist trophy, enemy, boss, etc. become locked and people are not allowed to add/switch/remove that character from their guess list.

So what do you guys think? It'll make calculating points in the end much simpler, the point calculations will not get messed up from any potential changes Sakurai makes, and people can't cheat by changing out their deconfirmed characters.

Also, what do you think we should do if there's DLC newcomers? Do you want to count those newcomers for the betting thread as well as the on-disc/card characters or do you want to only count newcomers that are on the disc/card? I'm personally wanting to stick with the latter, since I'm guessing most people made their bets with the mindset that we weren't taking DLC characters into account, and their guesses likely would've been quite different if they knew if there'd be DLC characters.

I agree with Konner. I think the "deconfirmed rule" sounds reasonable, and I also think we should not count DLC newcomers (if there are any).

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I also think we shouldn't count DLC newcomers. I for one didn't have DLC in mind at all when I made my list.

[BANRYU]

Hehehehehe looks like I was way wrong on the Gen 6 Pokemon thing, huh? Y'know, I am absolutely okay with that.

So... I notice I'm down to like 70 points or something. I still don't really care about winning or anything, but I'm legitimately a little confused as to how I lost points. Can someone explain that to me?

Also, with Greninja's reveal I'm suddenly not feeling so strong about Takamaru as a possibility. (Two ninjas is good but three...?) I can change my prediction on him, right? (how does changing guesses work again...?)

Also also, I say give Knight his points. He had the guts and the uncanny foresight to somehow guess Greninja; IMO that kind of crazy luck deserves SOME kind of prize, haha.

Edited April 11, 2014 by BANRYU

[Randoman]

Since there's been another batch of rumours from the same person that was right about Little Mac, Wii Fit Trainer, and a 6th Gen Pokemon, do you think we should implement any new rules to stop people from changing their guesses to those characters?

I'm really only thinking of banning Chorus Men as a guess switch/addition, since we've already gotten plenty of hints that Miis and Palutena may be playable. Also, Chrom and Shulk have been heavily requested/anticipated as well long before SSB4 was shown at E3. I mean, Wuhu Island and Tomodachi Life have stages based off of them and they heavily correspond to Miis. Also, Palutena no longer features in Pit's final smash, and in person she hasn't cameoed in any of the new Kid Icarus stages (similar to how Rosalina didn't show up in Mario Galaxy as a cameo because she was playable). Even without the rumours, it's not a stretch to ban people from changing their guesses to Mii or Palutena. Though until Chorus Men at least get some hint of them being playable (like a stage or an assist trophy), I don't want people changing their guesses to him/them simply because of a rumour.

So... I notice I'm down to like 70 points or something. I still don't really care about winning or anything, but I'm legitimately a little confused as to how I lost points. Can someone explain that to me?

Also, with Greninja's reveal I'm suddenly not feeling so strong about Takamaru as a possibility. (Two ninjas is good but three...?) I can change my prediction on him, right? (how does changing guesses work again...?)

Also also, I say give Knight his points. He had the guts and the uncanny foresight to somehow guess Greninja; IMO that kind of crazy luck deserves SOME kind of prize, haha.

It's a rule in the opening post that penalizes latejoiners with a -5 penalty for every newcomer revealed. I know it's a bit of a harsh penalty, but I implemented it so that we don't have people cheating by joining in close to the end with one guess, and winning because everyone else's points are low because of all of the inaccurate guesses of the earlier participants lowering their own points. I couldn't really think of any other way to stop latejoiners from getting cheap wins like that, while still letting them join in on this game.

How switches/removals/additions work is: you only get 2 of them, though there are some free ones that come up regarding game updates and such.

So far, the free removals/switches that have been allowed are removing/switching:

- 6th Gen Pokemon (since we didn't know a lot about 6th Gen at the time, though now this one is no longer applicable with Greninja's reveal)

- Shulk (we don't know much about X. At first, people thought it was a Xenoblade sequel that'd have Shulk as the lead again, but now that we know that that isn't the case, I allowed him to be removed/switched)

- Bandai/Namco characters (many of us thought that since Bandai Namco is developing the game, they'd be entitled to having a playable character in Smash, though an article quoting Sakurai said that he's not going to let them have a character just because they're helping out)

Well, once we get two more people saying Knight should get the +10 points, I suppose I'll do it. So far, we have 2 people saying that he should get -5 for prioritizing his switch to a 6th Gen Trainer, so I want it to be a majority vote.

[BANRYU]

Maybe compromise and give him 5? *shrug*

[Ema Skye]

Since the OP says you can change two of your guesses, I've changed:

- Takamaru to Choir Kids

- Sherrif to Pac-Man

It also says you can add two characters so I've added:

- Dixie Kong

- Mii

I don't plan on using my two removals.

[Knight]

I would like to change Magnus to Palutena plz.

[Randoman]

Since the OP says you can change two of your guesses, I've changed:

- Takamaru to Choir Kids

- Sherrif to Pac-Man

It also says you can add two characters so I've added:

- Dixie Kong

- Mii

I don't plan on using my two removals.

Erm... the rules stated that "only two guess swaps/additions/removals (meaning you can only do those three things twice) are allowed." So you can either do two additions only, two swaps only, one addition and one swap only, but not two swaps and two additions. However, there were some free swaps/removals that I allowed due to updates from news/articles like allowing a free Shulk swap/removal (due to X news being updated and it not featuring Shulk as the lead) and a free Bandai Namco switchout/removal (after seeing that article from Sakurai saying he's not entitling Bandai Namco to a playable character just because they're helping develop SSB4), so if you're switching/removing Shulk or a Bandai Namco character from your list, it won't count towards your 2 swap/addition/removal limit.

And you're wanting to switch out to the Choir Kids because of that rumour, right? I'm kind of skeptical on allowing that (though I want others' input before I do anything solid regarding allowing/disallowing it). I mean, switching to Palutena, Mii, Chrom, Pac-Man, or Shulk is reasonable enough, since rumour or no rumour, people have wanted/anticipated that those characters would be playable in SSB4. Though before the rumour, there's barely been any requests/expectations for a Rhythm Heaven character to be in, and I personally feel it's a bit unfair if we allow a guess from it simply because of a rumour. If a Rhythm Heaven stage gets shown later on, I'll be okay with a Rhythm Heaven character guess, since game series with stages usually get characters (probably around 60%-70% of them). But until then, I don't feel that a character guess simply based off of a rumour is right or should be allowed. Though I really want to hear what everyone else thinks about the issue, and others' arguments for/against my stance.

I would like to change Magnus to Palutena plz.

Alright. Be sure to cross out your Magnus vote and put Palutena beside it so we know it's a swap.

Eg: Magnus Palutena

And I think that leaves you with one swap/addition/removal left.

[BANRYU]

Well, I suppose I'll go ahead and get in on this action because why not, I tend to have pretty good instincts when it comes to this stuff. I'm not actually expecting any / most / all of these folks to get in, so this is actually more characters who I want to get in and who I think have a plausible chance.

- Saki Amiyama (deconfirmed)

- Takamaru Ridley

- Chrom from some game I forget lol

- King K. Rool from DKC

- Isaac from Golden Sun

- Shulk from Xenoblade

- Ray from Custom Robo Palutena

It's too bad I couldn't get credit for the ones that I DID predict, like Little Mac and Megaman lol.

I went ahead and crossed off Saki since he's confirmed as an AT.

Decided that I'd regret not calling Ridley if somehow he did end up being playable lol. =w= I'll be loyal to my most favorite of villainous space dragons and give him an honorary prediction even though I'm almost positive that he has no chance.

As the roster fills up I'm not feeling so confident about Shulk and Ray either, actually. We don't get free removes, do we?

I definitely feel Chrom, K. Rool, Isaac, and heck maybe even Palutena are the most likely newcomer candidates at the moment.

EDIT: I think Imma cop out and do Palutena over Ray. ~3~ I feel like such a sellout.

Edited April 12, 2014 by BANRYU

[Konnor97]

I'm gonna add in Palutena without replacing anyone. Nobody I really wanna switch out except Gen 3 trainer, but the deconfirmed rule from my understanding prevents their removal (Sakurai stated that mid-battle transformations will no longer happen).

So my current (final?) list is:
Chrom

6th Gen Pokemon

Gen 3 Pokemon Trainer (Sceptile, Combusken, Mudkip)
Ghirahim

Mega Man

Takamaru
Ridley
Shadow the Hedgehog Pac-Man
Palutena

[Knight]

My current list I guess.

Takamaru

Lucina

(6th Gen Pokemon) 6th Gen trainer (deconfirmed)

Waluigi (deconfirmed)

Megaman (confirmed)

Ridley (?)

Isaac

Magnus Palutena

Ghirahim

Edited April 12, 2014 by Knight

[Randoman]

So what do you guys think about banning Rhythm Heaven characters in regards to switching/adding them in? It's mainly because of the rumour that I'm considering it, and compared to Palutena, Mii, Pac-Man, Shulk, and Chrom (all characters that were heavily requested/expected to be playable in SSB4) Rhythm Heaven characters were hardly expected to make it in until that rumour came up. I don't want the rumour giving people too much of an advantage/disadvantage if it turns out to be true/false. I mean, switching to Palutena is reasonable since even without the rumour, the fact that she was removed as Pit's Final Smash hints that she may be playable. Though there's been nothing but rumours hinting at Rhythm Heaven characters being playable.

As the roster fills up I'm not feeling so confident about Shulk and Ray either, actually. We don't get free removes, do we?

Well, you can only freely remove the following: Shulk and any Bandai Namco characters. 6th Gen Pokemon would be on that list if we didn't get Greninja. So removing/switching Shulk won't count towards your 2 switch/addition/removal limit.

Anyways, as of now BANRYU, you've used up both your two switches, though you can freely remove/switch Shulk if you want to (due to X news being updated from a direct showing that Shulk isn't the lead).

[BANRYU]

I don't know if the news about the Xeno game necessarily means anything as it relates to Shulk, but I'll go ahead and remove him anyway.

And yes, I made mention of my two switches being used in my prediction post, so I'm keeping track of it, not to worry.

As for the Rhythm Heaven / that one guy's roster predictions question, I think we shouldn't pay any mind to that nonsense. It shouldn't factor in to this thread at all IMO, I don't believe it's any more than silly, stupid rumors. The sites posting those articles could just as easily be making up these entities who predicted the previous newcomers as a means of fabricating a 'source' on the inside who 'knows' SSB4's roster.

Whatever the case, I don't trust those rumors in the least.