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Intelligent Systems says a Wii U Fire Emblem would need to sell 700,000 to be worthwhile


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Didn't Skyward Sword come out in 2011? Maybe they could have made Skyward Sword in HD and released it as a Wii U exclusive (along with the Wii U) in 2011... I mean, it's not like they were doing anything after 2010, really...

On-topic, 700k doesn't seem so unrealistic anymore for FE. Hard, yes, but not impossible (as it would have been before Awakening). I still like FE better in handhelds than home consoles, though (even if FE5/9/10 are some of my favorites in the series).

People talk about SMT x FE, but do we know anything about that game? We only got that 20 second trailer, and Atlus is in a pretty bad position right now, isn't it (since Index filed for bankruptcy and all that)?

skyward sword sold pretty badly for a zelda game, and that was my point, what were they doing after it released (more realistically, a few months before release)

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As much as I like console Fire Emblem games for their greater level of ambition, the reality is that developing HD games is expensive and that's what they'd be expected to do for the WiiU, even though that extra effort likely would not improve sales of the series. Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn sold worse than the GBA games and roughly on par (probably worse) than the DS games, and yet cost a lot more to make. For Nintendo, the people with the purse strings, it seems like a no-brainer to keep IS working on handheld titles for the foreseeable future. I don't doubt that the staff at IS are hungry for another go at a console game, but the bottom line ultimately means so much more and 700K sales is a hard goal to hit when the WiiU is currently struggling.

On the other hand, SMTxFE selling well could change the situation and help IS pitch another console game to Nintendo. SMT4 will hopefully stoke some interest in the crossover for WiiU owners, despite being another 3DS game.

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Considering FEA commercial performance worldwide and the fact that current FEA+SMTIV promo have boost the sale (of both) even further, I thought what he said isn't really too far fetched. If actually he said that for the next handheld FE. For a console FE, that target might too ambitious. There are factors that have make FEA so success that wouldn't work for console FE. First, handhelds (3DS in this case) have bigger install base worldwide. The cheap price of handhelds compared to console allowed more people to owned them simultaneously (although Vita is still expensive outside of Japan). That allows user overlap and widen the install base for handhelds. This isn't the same for console. While Vita owner usually owned a 3DS too, it is uncommon for a PS3 owner to have another console. Both the price of the games and the console itself prevent people to have multi console in their house. Second, 3DS already have a bigger install base when FEA released, thanks to the price cut. By any mean FE series is not a system seller outside of Japan. So if Wii U don't cut it price before it competitor released their console, Wii U would be butchered really hard and it small install base would prevent the next FE console game to reach 700k mark.

FE staying handheld is a great idea for a global product based out of Japan. Japan's "console" market is dominated by handhelds, with the 3DS and Vita making up almost 74% of the entire market (source). As the (relatively) paltry sales of Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn (especially in Japan) show (compared to more recent handheld iterations), console-based Fire Emblem titles just don't want to sell in the portable-dominated market of the East.

Considering how well Awakening sold in the West, I don't think anyone involved in business would give up Awakening's combined sales for significantly lower sales in Japan and a potential possibility for higher sales elsewhere with an HD title on the Wii U (and, let's face it, "potentially" is a stretch given the much smaller install base of the console compared to the 3DS). That's just asking for the product to fail.

As much as I ride on SEGA for their decision to move Valkyria Chronicles from PS3 to PSP, their situation with that is similar to this. (Now, perhaps had the PSP had an actual install base (or at least one that wasn't heavily composed of pirates) and perhaps had SEGA actually marketed VC2, maybe that might have saved the series in the West. But, it made more financial sense for them to develop where they were going to get the most guaranteed sales, i.e. Japan.)

VC is perhaps the reverse of FE considering the series young lifetime compared to the latter. While FE move to console at GC time to boost the console sale, VC move to PSP to increase its own lifespan. I've heard that Sega actually satisfied on VC commercial performance in Japan (maybe worldwide too?), and that alone enough to make them develop a sequel. But apparently they thought that VC on console wouldn't be as much profitable on handheld platform considering the low PS3 install base at that time, while PSP alone is a beast in Japan. So I'm quite content on Sega's decision to move it into handhelds just to keep the young series alive and kickin', although personally I prefer VC to stay since its really show what a TRPG should be on console. Thanks to that, VC2 performed quite handsomely in Japan, selling almost 100k on its first week, but despite that the game quite bombed in the West while the critics mostly gave positive reception. Why is that? I called two mistakes: Moving it to handhelds and focus-testing on otaku audience.

Their first mistake, moving it to handheld is based on the fact that PSP performed horribly outside of Japan. That alone have hindered VC2 sales since it is clearly not a system seller, since VC itself as a series is very young. Those who have PSP but also not PS3 might not buy it as well since they've yet to play VC. Then their second, mistake, focus testing on otaku audience might the biggest turn off for VC veteran here. I swear that what Sega have done on VC 2 is really horrible and that make FEA look really tame in comparison. The word of mouth might have caused some people avoid altogether and called the series "dead". One thing that I don't understand is why they've reversed the tone in VC3. That I think should make VC veteran to willingly return to the series. But Sega have yet a word to release it in the West. *sigh Sega, you really are WEIRD.

Edited by Shengar
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Fire Emblem really does not benefit much from being on a home console, so I'm kind of glad they aren't interested in putting one on the Wii U. Hell, SMT x FE being on it still strikes me as very odd, since SMT has been gravitating toward handhelds for a while.

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Didn't the Sega Dreamcast which came and went in the span of just 1 year sell more units than the Wii U has sold so far? Yeah...

to be fair, the Dreamcast was beating the Gamecube and Xbox by launch-aligned sales too, it's just Sega's financials sucked

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Intelligent Systems aren't really intelligent. Part of why FE did so bad in the first place is the lack of press on them. Look at what happened when an FE actually got into a Nintendo Direct. FE13 actually did pretty well sales-wise for once. They need to realize people can't buy their games if they don't know they exist in the first place.

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Intelligent Systems aren't really intelligent. Part of why FE did so bad in the first place is the lack of press on them. Look at what happened when an FE actually got into a Nintendo Direct. FE13 actually did pretty well sales-wise for once. They need to realize people can't buy their games if they don't know they exist in the first place.

all the press in the world isn't going to help a non-system seller

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all the press in the world isn't going to help a non-system seller

It helped Awakening. You'd be surprised at how much a very interesting trailer, articles in gaming magazines and stuff like that can help a game to sell.

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That doesn't really look at all the evidence. I mean, we all remember how Reggie confirmed the damn thing was actually crossing the sea by accident at the last possible moment at last year's E3 after everybody anticipating it, and the explosion on Nintendo's facebook that happened afterwards, right? How they didn't have enough copies to fill all the preorders on time? And while it felt like ads and features were everywhere going by the usual standards for fire emblem releases, it's not like that's anywhere near the torrent we see for regular old AAA games stateside.

Not to say that the franchise has to be on any platform in particular, because I think there's room for a game with FE's basic structure anywhere they want to take it, and there are plenty of ways to beef up or tone down the content to match.

Edited by Rehab
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all the press in the world isn't going to help a non-system seller

Good marketing strategy and publication would certainly help any game. Toukiden being boost on Vita sale in Japan is a recent example for it. How many publication and marketing does Awakening have from Nintendo?

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It helped Awakening. You'd be surprised at how much a very interesting trailer, articles in gaming magazines and stuff like that can help a game to sell.

ok fine I'll edit that last statement:

all the press in the world isn't going to help a non-system seller on a failing platform

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How they didn't have enough copies to fill all the preorders on time?

Speaking about that, I still haven't seen it in stock in many places...what, 5ish months later? I wonder if it would have made a significant difference in sales numbers if they had actually produced enough copies to meet the demand. I'm sure there's gotta be some people who ended up not finding it in stores and weren't able/willing to download it. Hopefully next time they don't try to force us to download it. >_>

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Hopefully next time they don't try to force us to download it. >_>

The other two platform holder, Sony and Microsoft also push digital download to the forefront. It is natural actually if we see the success of Valve's Steam as digital distributor. Nintendo would lagged behind if they don't put incentive on digital download. I thought that the current promotion, SMT IV + FEA is one of the right way to do it.

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It'd be nice if that "incentive" didn't involve inconveniencing people who actually bothered to preorder their stuff, though. And I doubt that was their intention in the first place, rather than it just being some stupid mixup, or them having not expected that many people to buy the game (which is actually in the realm of being reason to hope).

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